Trajectories of functioning in bipolar disorders: A longitudinal study in the FondaMental Advanced Centers of Expertise in Bipolar Disorders cohort.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed at identifying distinct trajectories of functioning and at describing their respective clinical characteristics in a cohort of individuals with bipolar disorders. METHODS: We included a sample of 2351 individuals with bipolar disorders who have been followed-up to 3 years as part as the FondaMental Advanced Centers of Expertise in Bipolar Disorders cohort. Global functioning was measured using the Functioning Assessment Short Test. We used latent class mixed models to identify distinct longitudinal trajectories of functioning over 3 years. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify the baseline factors that were associated with the membership to each trajectory of functioning. RESULTS: Three distinct trajectories of functioning were identified: (1) a majority of individuals (72%) had a stable trajectory of mild functional impairment, (2) 20% of individuals had a stable trajectory of severe functional impairment and (3) 8% of individuals had a trajectory of moderate functional impairment that improved over time. The membership to a trajectory of stable severe versus stable mild functional impairment was associated with unemployment, a higher number of previous hospitalizations, childhood maltreatment, a higher level of residual depressive symptoms, higher sleep disturbances, a higher body mass index and a higher number of psychotropic medications being prescribed at baseline. The model that included these seven factors led to an area under the curve of 0.85. CONCLUSION: This study enabled to stratify individuals with bipolar disorders according to three distinct trajectories of functioning. The results regarding the potential determinants of the trajectory of severe functional impairment needs to be replicated in independent samples. Nevertheless, these potential determinants may represent possible therapeutic targets to improve the prognosis of those patients at risk of persistent poor functioning.

External Evaluation of Population Pharmacokinetics Models of Lithium in the Bipolar Population.

Lithium has been used in the treatment of bipolar disorder for several decades. Treatment optimization is recommended for this drug, due to its narrow therapeutic range and a large pharmacokinetics (PK) variability. In addition to therapeutic drug monitoring, attempts have been made to predict individual lithium doses using population pharmacokinetics (popPK) models. This study aims to assess the clinical applicability of published lithium popPK models by testing their predictive performance on two different external datasets. Available PopPK models were identified and their predictive performance was determined using a clinical dataset (46 patients/samples) and the literature dataset (89 patients/samples). The median prediction error (PE) and median absolute PE were used to assess bias and inaccuracy. The potential factors influencing model predictability were also investigated, and the results of both external evaluations compared. Only one model met the acceptability criteria for both datasets. Overall, there was a lack of predictability of models; median PE and median absolute PE, respectively, ranged from -6.6% to 111.2% and from 24.4% to 111.2% for the literature dataset, and from -4.5% to 137.6% and from 24.9% to 137.6% for the clinical dataset. Most models underpredicted the observed concentrations (7 out of 10 models presented a negative bias). Renal status was included as a covariate of lithium's clearance in only two models. To conclude, most of lithium's PopPK models had limited predictive performances related to the absence of covariates of interest included, such as renal status. A solution to this problem could be to improve the models with methodologies such as metamodeling. This could be useful in the perspective of model-informed precision dosing.