Validation of scores of PRO-C3 to predict liver-related events in alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Risk prediction in alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD) is an unmet need. We aimed to assess PRO-C3 models to predict liver-related events (LRE) in patients with a history of excessive alcohol use without an established diagnosis of chronic liver disease. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 462 patients with ArLD, split into a derivation cohort of 221 secondary care patients and a validation cohort of 241 primary care patients. Baseline variables, including fibrogenesis marker PRO-C3, were used to develop a prediction model. Prognostic accuracy was compared to enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF), fibrosis-4-index (FIB-4), transient elastography (TE) and ADAPT. RESULTS: In the derivation and validation cohorts, 67 (30%) and 19 (8%) experienced an LRE during a median follow-up of 5.2 years (IQR: 3.2-6.8) and 4.0 years (IQR: 2.7-5.6). On top of PRO-C3 and ADAPT score, we generated a model (ALPACA) of independent predictors of LREs (PRO-C3, AST/ALT, platelets). ALPACA had high prognostic accuracy with a C-statistic of 0.85 in the derivation cohort, comparable to ELF (0.83) and TE (0.84) and significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.78), PRO-C3 (0.80) and ADAPT (0.81). In the validation cohort, all tests had comparable C-statistics. Compared to low-risk patients (ALPACA ≤11), high-risk patients (>11) had a subhazard ratio for LREs of 12.6 (95% CI 5.9-26.8, p < .001) and higher cumulative incidence (57% vs. 7%, p < .001; derivation cohort). We observed similar subhazard ratio in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: PRO-C3-based scores are reliable tools to predict LREs in ArLD patients and are suitable for risk stratification in primary and secondary care.

Prediction of liver fibrosis severity in alcoholic liver disease by human microfibrillar-associated protein 4.

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic liver disease (ALD) is a public health concern that is the cause of half of all cirrhosis-related deaths. Early detection of fibrosis, ideally in the precirrhotic stage, is a key strategy for improving ALD outcomes and for preventing progression to cirrhosis. Previous studies identified the blood-borne marker human microfibrillar-associated protein 4 (MFAP4) as a biomarker for detection of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related fibrosis. AIM: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of MFAP4 to detect ALD-induced fibrosis. METHOD: We performed a prospective, liver biopsy-controlled study involving 266 patients with prior or current alcohol overuse. Patients were split into a training and a validation cohort. RESULTS: MFAP4 was present in fibrotic hepatic tissue and serum MFAP4 levels increased with fibrosis grade. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for detection of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.85-0.96) in the training cohort and 0.91 (95% CI 0.79-1.00) in the validation cohort. For detection of advanced fibrosis, the AUROC was 0.88 (95% CI 0.81-0.94) in the training cohort and 0.92 (95% CI 0.83-1.00) in the validation cohort. The diagnostic accuracy did not differ between MFAP4 and the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test or transient elastography (TE) in an intention-to-diagnose analysis. MFAP4 did not predict hepatic decompensation in a time-to-decompensation analysis in a subgroup of patients with cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: MFAP4 is a novel biomarker that can detect ALD-related fibrosis with high accuracy.

Fewer adverse effects associated with a modified two-bag intravenous acetylcysteine protocol compared to traditional three-bag regimen in paracetamol overdose.

Context: The intravenous (IV) N-acetylcysteine (NAC) regimen used worldwide in paracetamol overdose is complex with three separate weight-based doses and is associated with a high incidence of adverse events including non-allergic anaphylactoid reactions (NAARs). In 2012, Denmark adopted the two-bag IV NAC regimen which combined the first two infusions of the three-bag regimen and kept the third infusion unchanged. We compared the safety and efficacy of the two-bag IV NAC regimen with the traditional Danish three-bag regimen. Methods: A medical chart review was conducted in three Danish medical centers from January 2012 through December 2014. Safety and efficacy data were compared for patients who received the traditional infusion protocol in Denmark or the 20-h two-bag IV regimen. Results: Four hundred and ninety-three cases received the two-bag regimen and 274 received the three-bag regimen. The overall incidence of NAARs was 9% with all being mild to moderate in intensity. Fewer subjects in the two-bag group (4%) developed NAARs compared to 17% in the three-bag group (p < .001). Overall, 31 patients (4%) developed hepatotoxicity. There was no apparent difference in hepatotoxicity rates between the groups and no deaths or liver transplants. Patients receiving the two-bag regimen had fewer interruptions or delays (5%) compared to the three-bag regimen cohort (12%). Overall, there were very few medication errors reported (1%). Conclusions: The incidence of NAARs was lower in patients receiving acetylcysteine in a two-bag regimen compared to the traditional Danish three-bag regimen without an apparent reduction in efficacy.