Model parameter estimation with imprecise information.

Model parameter estimation is a well-known inverse problem, as long as single-value point data are available as observations of system performance measurement. However, classical statistical methods, such as the minimization of an objective function or maximum likelihood, are no longer straightforward, when measurements are imprecise in nature. Typical examples of the latter include censored data and binary information. Here, we explore Approximate Bayesian Computation as a simple method to perform model parameter estimation with such imprecise information. We demonstrate the method for the example of a plain rainfall-runoff model and illustrate the advantages and shortcomings. Last, we outline the value of Shapley values to determine which type of observation contributes to the parameter estimation and which are of minor importance.

Lagrangian solver for coupling hydrodynamics with biokinetic conversion modelling in anaerobic digesters.

Conventional anaerobic digestion models used in wastewater treatment plants suffer from inaccuracies due to the limited consideration given to hydrodynamics within the digester tank. A solution to this is to combine computational fluid dynamics simulations with anaerobic models. This paper introduces a novel methodology in the form of a software toolbox that implements the standard anaerobic digestion model no.1 in C++ and can interface with particle-based Lagrangian simulations. This method provides significantly more insights into the biochemical conversion process by accounting for the impact of the hydrodynamics on the biochemical reactions. The paper presents the background of the method along with a conceptual and numerical verification. It also presents a case study of a 3D lab scale digester comparing the results from the solver with the standard anaerobic digestion model. This integrated approach can be used by operators and designers for optimisations and also for predictive modelling.

Estimating actual SARS-CoV-2 infections from secondary data.

Eminent in pandemic management is accurate information on infection dynamics to plan for timely installation of control measures and vaccination campaigns. Despite huge efforts in diagnostic testing of individuals, the underestimation of the actual number of SARS-CoV-2 infections remains significant due to the large number of undocumented cases. In this paper we demonstrate and compare three methods to estimate the dynamics of true infections based on secondary data i.e., (a) test positivity, (b) infection fatality and (c) wastewater monitoring. The concept is tested with Austrian data on a national basis for the period of April 2020 to December 2022. Further, we use the results of prevalence studies from the same period to generate (upper and lower bounds of) credible intervals for true infections for four data points. Model parameters are subsequently estimated by applying Approximate Bayesian Computation-rejection sampling and Genetic Algorithms. The method is then validated for the case study Vienna. We find that all three methods yield fairly similar results for estimating the true number of infections, which supports the idea that all three datasets contain similar baseline information. None of them is considered superior, as their advantages and shortcomings depend on the specific case study at hand.

Synthetic Optical Coherence Tomography Angiographs for Detailed Retinal Vessel Segmentation Without Human Annotations.

Optical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA) is a non-invasive imaging modality that can acquire high-resolution volumes of the retinal vasculature and aid the diagnosis of ocular, neurological and cardiac diseases. Segmenting the visible blood vessels is a common first step when extracting quantitative biomarkers from these images. Classical segmentation algorithms based on thresholding are strongly affected by image artifacts and limited signal-to-noise ratio. The use of modern, deep learning-based segmentation methods has been inhibited by a lack of large datasets with detailed annotations of the blood vessels. To address this issue, recent work has employed transfer learning, where a segmentation network is trained on synthetic OCTA images and is then applied to real data. However, the previously proposed simulations fail to faithfully model the retinal vasculature and do not provide effective domain adaptation. Because of this, current methods are unable to fully segment the retinal vasculature, in particular the smallest capillaries. In this work, we present a lightweight simulation of the retinal vascular network based on space colonization for faster and more realistic OCTA synthesis. We then introduce three contrast adaptation pipelines to decrease the domain gap between real and artificial images. We demonstrate the superior segmentation performance of our approach in extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments on three public datasets that compare our method to traditional computer vision algorithms and supervised training using human annotations. Finally, we make our entire pipeline publicly available, including the source code, pretrained models, and a large dataset of synthetic OCTA images.

Automatic modelling of human musculoskeletal ligaments - Framework overview and model quality evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Accurate segmentation of connective soft tissues in medical images is very challenging, hampering the generation of geometric models for bio-mechanical computations. Alternatively, one could predict ligament insertion sites and then approximate the shapes, based on anatomical knowledge and morphological studies. OBJECTIVE: In this work, we describe an integrated framework for automatic modelling of human musculoskeletal ligaments. METHOD: We combine statistical shape modelling with geometric algorithms to automatically identify insertion sites, based on which geometric surface/volume meshes are created. As clinical use case, the framework has been applied to generate models of the forearm interosseous membrane. Ligament insertion sites in the statistical model were defined according to anatomical predictions following a published approach. RESULTS: For evaluation we compared the generated sites, as well as the ligament shapes, to data obtained from a cadaveric study, involving five forearms with 15 ligaments. Our framework permitted the creation of models approximating ligaments' shapes with good fidelity. However, we found that the statistical model trained with the state-of-the-art prediction of the insertion sites was not always reliable. Average mean square errors as well as Hausdorff distances of the meshes could increase by an order of magnitude, as compared to employing known insertion locations of the cadaveric study. Using those, an average mean square error of 0.59 mm and an average Hausdorff distance of less than 7 mm resulted, for all ligaments. CONCLUSIONS: The presented approach for automatic generation of ligament shapes from insertion points appears to be feasible but the detection of the insertion sites with a SSM is too inaccurate, thus making a patient-specific approach necessary.