A Model Based on Noninvasive Markers Predicts Very Low Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk After Viral Response in Hepatitis C Virus-Advanced Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and advanced fibrosis remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sustained viral response (SVR) and need lifelong surveillance. Because HCC risk is not homogenous and may decrease with fibrosis regression, we aimed to identify patients with low HCC risk based on the prediction of noninvasive markers and its changes after SVR. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This is a multicenter cohort study, including patients with HCV and compensated advanced fibrosis that achieved SVR after direct antivirals. Clinical and transient elastography (TE) data were registered at baseline, 1 year, and 3 years after the end of treatment (EOT). All patients underwent liver ultrasound scan every 6 months. Patients with clinical evaluation 1 year after EOT were eligible. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed, and predictive models were constructed. HCC occurrence rates were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier. Nine hundred and ninety-three patients were eligible (56% male; 44% female; median age 62 years), 35 developed HCC (3.9%), and the median follow-up was 45 months (range 13-53). Baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (HR 1.040; 95% CI 1.017-1.064), serum albumin (HR 0.400; 95% CI 0.174-0.923), 1-year DeltaLSM (HR 0.993; 95% CI 0.987-0.998), and 1-year FIB-4 score (HR 1.095; 95% CI 1.046-1.146) were independent factors associated with HCC. The TE-based HCC risk model predicted 0% of HCC occurrence at 3 years in patients with score 0 (baseline LSM ≤ 17.3 kPa, albumin >4.2 g/dL, and 1-year DeltaLSM > 25.5%) versus 5.2% in patients with score 1-3 (Harrell's C 0.779; log-rank 0.002). An alternative model with FIB-4 similarly predicted HCC risk. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of baseline and dynamic changes in noninvasive markers may help to identify patients with a very low risk of HCC development after SVR.

Usefulness of fully covered self-expandable biliary metal stents for the treatment of post-sphyncterotomy ERCP bleeding.

BACKGROUND: post-sphyncterotomy endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) bleeding is an adverse event with an estimated incidence rate of 1.34%. There is no established consensus about how to treat this particular type of gastrointestinal bleed. Placement of fully covered self-expandable biliary metal stents (FCSEBMS) has been evaluated as an alternative treatment with positive outcomes and a low complication rate. AIM: to report the results of a cohort of patients with post-sphyncterotomy bleeding treated in a tertiary care referral hospital with FCSEBMS. METHODS: a retrospective cases series study was performed including all post-ERCP bleeds treated with FCSEBMS (immediate or delayed) from January 2015 to June 2017. Clinical data, laboratory results and endoscopic reports were collected in order to evaluate the rebleeding rate after endoscopic treatment. Two different scenarios were considered: a) prophylactic stent placement after effective endoscopic treatment; and b) stents placed for the treatment of an active postsphyncterotomy bleed, refractory to standard endoscopic therapy. RESULTS: twenty-two patients (14 male, eight women) diagnosed with postsphyncterotomy bleeding were treated with FCSEBMS placement. The stents were placed prophylactically in 15 patients, while the stents were placed as a treatment for a refractory bleed in seven patients. No differences were found between both groups except for a higher anticoagulation rate in the treatment group. Clinical success was achieved in all but one patient, with no complications in relation to stent placement. Distal migration was described in two of the 22 patients included in the study. CONCLUSIONS: temporary placement of FCSEBMS seems to be a technically feasible treatment option for post-ERCP bleeding with a high clinical success rate. The complication rate was low, although randomized studies are needed.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk after viral response in hepatitis C virus-advanced fibrosis: Who to screen and for how long?

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection is associated with fibrosis progression, end-stage liver complications and HCC. Not surprisingly, HCV infection is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. After sustained virological response (SVR), the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma is not completely eliminated in patients with established cirrhosis or with advanced fibrosis. Therefore, lifelong surveillance is currently recommended. This strategy is likely not universally cost-effective and harmless, considering that not all patients with advanced fibrosis have the same risk of developing HCC. Factors related to the severity of liver disease and its potential to improve after SVR, the molecular and epigenetic changes that occur during infection and other associated comorbidities might account for different risk levels and are likely essential for identifying patients who would benefit from screening programs after SVR. Efforts to develop predictive models and risk calculators, biomarkers and genetic panels and even deep learning models to estimate the individual risk of HCC have been made in the direct-acting antiviral agents era, when thousands of patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis have reached SVR. These tools could help to identify patients with very low HCC risk in whom surveillance might not be justified. In this review, factors affecting the probability of HCC development after SVR, the benefits and risks of surveillance, suggested strategies to estimate individualized HCC risk and the current evidence to recommend lifelong surveillance are discussed.

Possible unrecognised liver injury is associated with mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) with acute respiratory distress syndrome is a life-threatening condition. A previous diagnosis of chronic liver disease is associated with poorer outcomes. Nevertheless, the impact of silent liver injury has not been investigated. We aimed to explore the association of pre-admission liver fibrosis indices with the prognosis of critically ill COVID-19 patients. METHODS: The work presented was an observational study in 214 patients with COVID-19 consecutively admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Pre-admission liver fibrosis indices were calculated. In-hospital mortality and predictive factors were explored with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: The mean age was 59.58 (13.79) years; 16 patients (7.48%) had previously recognised chronic liver disease. Up to 78.84% of patients according to Forns, and 45.76% according to FIB-4, had more than minimal fibrosis. Fibrosis indices were higher in non-survivors [Forns: 6.04 (1.42) versus 4.99 (1.58), p < 0.001; FIB-4: 1.77 (1.17) versus 1.41 (0.91), p = 0.020)], but no differences were found in liver biochemistry parameters. Patients with any degree of fibrosis either by Forns or FIB-4 had a higher mortality, which increased according to the severity of fibrosis (p < 0.05 for both indexes). Both Forns [HR 1.41 (1.11-1.81); p = 0.006] and FIB-4 [HR 1.31 (0.99-1.72); p = 0.051] were independently related to survival after adjusting for the Charlson comorbidity index, APACHE II, and ferritin. CONCLUSION: Unrecognised liver fibrosis, assessed by serological tests prior to admission, is independently associated with a higher risk of death in patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to the ICU.

Usefulness of fully covered self-expandable biliary metal stents for the treatment of post-sphyncterotomy ERCP bleeding

Background: post-sphyncterotomy endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) bleeding is an adverse event with an estimated incidence rate of 1.34%. There is no established consensus about how to treat this particular type of gastrointestinal bleed. Placement of fully covered self-expandable biliary metal stents (FCSEBMS) has been evaluated as an alternative treatment with positive outcomes and a low complication rate. Aim: to report the results of a cohort of patients with post-sphyncterotomy bleeding treated in a tertiary care referral hospital with FCSEBMS. Methods: a retrospective cases series study was performed including all post-ERCP bleeds treated with FCSEBMS (immediate or delayed) from January 2015 to June 2017. Clinical data, laboratory results and endoscopic reports were collected in order to evaluate the rebleeding rate after endoscopic treatment. Two different scenarios were considered: a) prophylactic stent placement after effective endoscopic treatment; and b) stents placed for the treatment of an active postsphyncterotomy bleed, refractory to standard endoscopic therapy. Results: twenty-two patients (14 male, eight women) diagnosed with postsphyncterotomy bleeding were treated with FCSEBMS placement. The stents were placed prophylactically in 15 patients, while the stents were placed as a treatment for a refractory bleed in seven patients. No differences were found between both groups except for a higher anticoagulation rate in the treatment group. Clinical success was achieved in all but one patient, with no complications in relation to stent placement. Distal migration was described in two of the 22 patients included in the study. Conclusions: temporary placement of FCSEBMS seems to be a technically feasible treatment option for post-ERCP bleeding with a high clinical success rate. The complication rate was low, although randomized studies are needed

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