Applying the HIV Prevention Cascade to an Evaluation of a Large-Scale Combination HIV Prevention Programme for Adolescent Girls and Young Women in South Africa.

Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in South Africa are at a three times higher risk of acquiring HIV than their male counterparts. The HIV prevention cascade is a tool which can be used to measure coverage of HIV prevention services, although there is limited empirical evidence to demonstrate its application in low-resourced settings. The unifying framework is a conceptualisation of the HIV prevention cascade which theorises that both motivation and access are required for an individual to effectively use an HIV prevention method. We applied this framework to data from a random sample of 127,951 beneficiaries of a combination HIV prevention programme for AGYW aged 15-24 in South Africa to measure the steps to, and identify key barriers to, effective use of male condoms and oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among this vulnerable population. Barriers to each step were analysed using univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Among self-reported HIV-negative AGYW who had sex in the past 6 months, effective use of condoms (15.2%), access to PrEP (39.1%) and use of PrEP (3.8%) were low. AGYW were: less likely to be motivated to use condoms if they believed that they had a faithful partner (aOR 0.44, 95% CI 0.22-0.90) or disliked condoms (aOR 0.26, 95% CI 0.11-0.57), less likely to access condoms if the place where AGYW accessed them was far away (aOR 0.25, 95% CI 0.10-0.64), more likely to effectively use condoms if they received counselling on how to use them (aOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.05-4.76), less likely to be motivated to use PrEP if they did not believe PrEP was efficacious (aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.17-0.72), more likely to be motivated if they felt confident that they could use PrEP, and more likely to have access to PrEP if they had ever been offered PrEP (aOR 2.94, 95% CI 1.19-7.22). This combination HIV prevention programme and similar programmes should focus on risk-reduction counselling interventions for AGYW and their male partners to improve effective use of condoms and ensure easy access to condoms and PrEP by making them available in youth-friendly spaces. Our findings demonstrate that the application of HIV prevention cascades can inform AGYW HIV prevention programming in low-resourced settings.

Safety and pharmacokinetics of subcutaneous administration of broadly neutralizing anti-HIV-1 monoclonal antibodies (bNAbs), given to HIV-1 exposed, uninfected neonates and infants: study protocol for a phase I trial.

BACKGROUND: The ambitious goal to eliminate new pediatric HIV infections by 2030 requires accelerated prevention strategies in high-risk settings such as South Africa. One approach could be pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with broadly neutralizing anti-HIV-1 monoclonal antibodies (bNAbs). The aim of our study is to define the optimal dose(s), the ideal combination(s) of bNAbs in terms of potency and breadth, and timing of subcutaneous (SC) administration(s) to prevent breast milk transmission of HIV. METHODS: Two bNAbs, CAP256V2LS and VRC07-523LS, will be assessed in a sequential and randomized phase I, single-site, single-blind, dose-finding trial. We aim to investigate the 28-day safety and pharmacokinetics (PK) profile of incrementally higher doses of these bNAbs in breastfeeding HIV-1 exposed born without HIV neonates alongside standard of care antiretroviral (ARV) medication to prevent (infants) or treat (mothers) HIV infection. The trial design includes 3 steps and 7 arms (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 6b) with 8 infants in each arm. The first step will evaluate the safety and PK profile of the bNAbs when given alone as a single subcutaneous (SC) administration at increasing mg/kg body weight doses within 96 h of birth: arms 1, 2 and 3 at doses of 5, 10, and 20 mg/kg of CAP256V2LS, respectively; arms 4 and 5 at doses of 20 and 30 mg/kg of VRC07-523LS, respectively. Step two will evaluate the safety and PK profile of a combination of the two bNAbs administered SC at fixed doses within 96 h of birth. Step three will evaluate the safety and PK profile of the two bNAbs administered SC in combination at fixed doses, after 3 months. Arms 1 and 6 will follow sequential recruitment, whereas randomization will occur sequentially between arms (a) 2 & 4 and (b) 3 & 5. Before each randomization, a safety pause will allow review of safety data of the preceding arms. DISCUSSION: The results of this trial will guide further studies on bNAbs to prevent breast milk transmission of HIV. PROTOCOL VERSION: Version 4.0 dated 15 March 2024. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trial Registry (PACTR): PACTR202205715278722, 21 April 2022; South African National Clinical Trial Registry (SANCTR): DOH-27-062022-6058.

Impact of age on antimicrobial prescriptions in hospitalized children at three academic centres in South Africa: a point prevalence survey.

Antimicrobial resistance is a global threat in children, and the emergence of multi-drug-resistant organisms is of concern. This secondary analysis of an antimicrobial point prevalence survey (PPS) in children evaluates the impact of age on antimicrobial use. The mean antimicrobial prescriptions were assessed in neonates, infants, young children (1-5 years), school-going children (6-12 years), and adolescents (13-15 years) from a cross-sectional PPS at three academic hospitals between September 2021 and January 2022. Primary and secondary diagnoses, antibiotic type (World Health Organization AWaRe and Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classifications), and the incidence of healthcare-associated infections (HAI) were evaluated per age category. Multiple regression models were used to analyse age-related risk factors for HAI. The number of antimicrobials per child (1.7-1.9 per patient) was higher in neonates and infants compared to children 6-12 years old (1.4 per patient). Watch antibiotics, especially carbapenems, were commonly prescribed in neonates (32.5%) and infants (42.2%). Reserve antimicrobial use was notable in neonates (4.7%) and infants (4.1%). The incidence risk ratio (IRR) of HAI was higher in neonates and infants (IRR 2.13; 95% CI 1.23-3.70, IRR 2.20; 95% CI 1.40-3.45, respectively) compared to 6- to 12-year-olds. On multivariate analysis of participants according to age, being HIV infected, length of stay >6 days, high McCabe severity score, having surgery and receipt of blood transfusion were associated with an increased risk of HAI (P < .001 for all) while on univariate analysis only, being premature and/or underweight was associated with an increased risk of HAI in infants (P < .001 for both). Infants with risk factors for HAI significantly influenced antimicrobial prescribing, underscoring the necessity for tailored antimicrobial stewardship and enhanced surveillance. The increased use of Watch antibiotics, particularly carbapenems, in infants warrants closer scrutiny. Further research is required to identify inappropriate antimicrobial use in high-risk hospitalized young children.

HIV-1 subtype C Nef-mediated SERINC5 down-regulation significantly contributes to overall Nef activity.

BACKGROUND: Nef performs multiple cellular activities that enhance HIV-1 pathogenesis. The role of Nef-mediated down-regulation of the host restriction factor SERINC5 in HIV-1 pathogenesis is not well-defined. We aimed to investigate if SERINC5 down-regulation activity contributes to HIV-1 subtype C disease progression, to assess the relative contribution of this activity to overall Nef function, and to identify amino acids required for optimal activity. We measured the SERINC5 down-regulation activity of 106 subtype C Nef clones, isolated from individuals in early infection, for which the Nef activities of CD4 and HLA-I down-regulation as well as alteration of TCR signalling were previously measured. The relationship between SERINC5 down-regulation and markers of disease progression, and the relative contribution of SERINC5 down-regulation to a Nef fitness model-derived E value (a proxy for overall Nef fitness in vivo), were assessed. RESULTS: No overall relationship was found between SERINC5 down-regulation and viral load set point (p = 0.28) or rate of CD4+ T cell decline (p = 0.45). CD4 down-regulation (p = 0.02) and SERINC5 down-regulation (p = 0.003) were significant determinants of E values in univariate analyses, with the greatest relative contribution for SERINC5 down-regulation, and only SERINC5 down-regulation remained significant in the multivariate analysis (p = 0.003). Using a codon-by-codon analysis, several amino acids were significantly associated with increased (10I, 11V, 38D, 51T, 65D, 101V, 188H and, 191H) or decreased (10K, 38E, 65E, 135F, 173T, 176T and, 191R) SERINC5 down-regulation activity. Site-directed mutagenesis experiments of selected mutants confirmed a substantial reduction in SERINC5 down-regulation activity associated with the mutation 173T, while mutations 10K, 135F, and 176T were associated with more modest reductions in activity that were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that SERINC5 down-regulation is a significant contributor to overall Nef function and identify potential genetic determinants of this Nef function that may have relevance for vaccines or therapeutics.

Effectiveness of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine in health-care workers in South Africa (the Sisonke study): results from a single-arm, open-label, phase 3B, implementation study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the effectiveness of a single dose of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine (Johnson & Johnson) in health-care workers in South Africa during two waves of the South African COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: In the single-arm, open-label, phase 3B implementation Sisonke study, health-care workers aged 18 years and older were invited for vaccination at one of 122 vaccination sites nationally. Participants received a single dose of 5 × 1010 viral particles of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine. Vaccinated participants were linked with their person-level data from one of two national medical insurance schemes (scheme A and scheme B) and matched for COVID-19 risk with an unvaccinated member of the general population. The primary outcome was vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19, defined as COVID-19-related admission to hospital, hospitalisation requiring critical or intensive care, or death, in health-care workers compared with the general population, ascertained 28 days or more after vaccination or matching, up to data cutoff. This study is registered with the South African National Clinical Trial Registry, DOH-27-022021-6844, ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04838795, and the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202102855526180, and is closed to accrual. FINDINGS: Between Feb 17 and May 17, 2021, 477 102 health-care workers were enrolled and vaccinated, of whom 357 401 (74·9%) were female and 119 701 (25·1%) were male, with a median age of 42·0 years (33·0-51·0). 215 813 vaccinated individuals were matched with 215 813 unvaccinated individuals. As of data cutoff (July 17, 2021), vaccine effectiveness derived from the total matched cohort was 83% (95% CI 75-89) to prevent COVID-19-related deaths, 75% (69-82) to prevent COVID-19-related hospital admissions requiring critical or intensive care, and 67% (62-71) to prevent COVID-19-related hospitalisations. The vaccine effectiveness for all three outcomes were consistent across scheme A and scheme B. The vaccine effectiveness was maintained in older health-care workers and those with comorbidities including HIV infection. During the course of the study, the beta (B.1.351) and then the delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 variants of concerns were dominant, and vaccine effectiveness remained consistent (for scheme A plus B vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19-related hospital admission during beta wave was 62% [95% CI 42-76] and during delta wave was 67% [62-71], and vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19-related death during beta wave was 86% [57-100] and during delta wave was 82% [74-89]). INTERPRETATION: The single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine shows effectiveness against severe COVID-19 disease and COVID-19-related death after vaccination, and against both beta and delta variants, providing real-world evidence for its use globally. FUNDING: National Treasury of South Africa, the National Department of Health, Solidarity Response Fund NPC, The Michael & Susan Dell Foundation, The Elma Vaccines and Immunization Foundation, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

"Men Rule this is the Normal Thing. We Normalise it and it's Wrong": Gendered Power in Decision-Making Around Sex and Condom Use in Heterosexual Relationships Amongst Adolescents and Young People in South Africa.

We examined power and decision-making in heterosexual relationships amongst South African adolescents and young people. A survey conducted with 515 adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) included items from the Sexual Relationship Power Scale (SRPS) adapted for South African women. Qualitative interviews with fifty AGYW aged between 15 and 24, and nine males aged 18 years and above, explored decision-making in heterosexual relationships, particularly relating to timing of sex and condom use. Theories of gendered power, sexual relationship power and sexual scripting were used in interpreting the data. Findings showed that the power AGYW have in sexual relationships determines their ability to use condoms, and that males generally control condom use and timing of sex. Both survey and interview data suggest that male control over female partners' behaviour also extends beyond the sexual domain. Although while male power is pervasive and enduring, it is simultaneously contested and negotiated. Despite some young people believing that gendered power in decision-making should be equal, it is not always possible for AGYW to enact agency in the dyadic context of heterosexual relationships. Whilst adolescents and young people in South Africa move away from traditional cultural gendered expectations, relationship power inequity and hegemonic masculinities continue to legitimise men's power over women, constraining the sexual agency of adolescent girls and young women and discouraging them from taking control of their own sexual interests and sexual health.

Impact of marital status on risk of HIV in South Africa (2002-2017).

After decades of research, South African women continue to have the highest burden of HIV in the world. The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of marital status on HIV using population and community-level data sources. We included data 13,469 and 5682 South African women who participated to South African HIV behavioural surveys in 2002-2012 and 2017, respectively. HIV prevalence and incidence rates were significantly higher among single/not-cohabiting women compared to those married/cohabiting with a partner in all survey participants (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.60 and 1.58 in 2002-2012 and 2017, respectively). A quarter of the HIV diagnoses were attributed to those who were single/not-cohabiting women (population attributable risk (PAR%): 25% and 24%, respectively). More than 40% of the HIV infections were exclusively associated with single women (PAR%: 42%, 95% CI: 33%, 51%). Our results provided strong evidence for the profound impact of marital status on excess HIV infection rates. Targeting and reaching single/not-cohabiting women with multiple risk factors can potentially play a crucial role in the trajectories of the epidemic.

Wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 airport surveillance: key trends at the Cape Town International Airport.

Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater has revealed the role of mobility in the transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and the surveillance of airport wastewater in cities across the world has demonstrated how travel entry points can give an indication of trends in transmission. This study undertook wastewater surveillance at the Cape Town International Airport (CTIA) to assess the use of a WBE approach to provide supplementary information on the presence of COVID-19 at a key air travel entry point in South Africa. Grab wastewater samples (n = 55) were collected from the CTIA wastewater pump station and analysed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) method. The study found a correlation between the wastewater data and clinical cases reported in the City of Cape Town during various time periods and during the peak of a COVID-19 wave. Highly elevated viral loads in the wastewater were observed at times there was increased mobility through the airport. The study also revealed elevated viral load levels at the airport despite the stricter restrictions and through the lower restrictions. The study findings indicate wastewater surveillance and airports can provide supplementary information to airport authorities to assess the impacts of imposed travel restrictions.

Associations between the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies and health service disruptions in 10 countries.

BACKGROUND: Disruptions in essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic have been reported in several countries. Yet, patterns in health service disruption according to country responses remain unclear. In this paper, we investigate associations between the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies and disruptions in 31 health services in 10 low- middle- and high-income countries in 2020. METHODS: Using routine health information systems and administrative data from 10 countries (Chile, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mexico, Nepal, South Africa, South Korea, and Thailand) we estimated health service disruptions for the period of April to December 2020 by dividing monthly service provision at national levels by the average service provision in the 15 months pre-COVID (January 2019-March 2020). We used the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) index and multi-level linear regression analyses to assess associations between the stringency of restrictions and health service disruptions over nine months. We extended the analysis by examining associations between 11 individual containment or closure policies and health service disruptions. Models were adjusted for COVID caseload, health service category and country GDP and included robust standard errors. FINDINGS: Chronic disease care was among the most affected services. Regression analyses revealed that a 10% increase in the mean stringency index was associated with a 3.3 percentage-point (95% CI -3.9, -2.7) reduction in relative service volumes. Among individual policies, curfews, and the presence of a state of emergency, had the largest coefficients and were associated with 14.1 (95% CI -19.6, 8.7) and 10.7 (95% CI -12.7, -8.7) percentage-point lower relative service volumes, respectively. In contrast, number of COVID-19 cases in 2020 was not associated with health service disruptions in any model. CONCLUSIONS: Although containment policies were crucial in reducing COVID-19 mortality in many contexts, it is important to consider the indirect effects of these restrictions. Strategies to improve the resilience of health systems should be designed to ensure that populations can continue accessing essential health care despite the presence of containment policies during future infectious disease outbreaks.

Tracking health system performance in times of crisis using routine health data: lessons learned from a multicountry consortium.

COVID-19 has prompted the use of readily available administrative data to track health system performance in times of crisis and to monitor disruptions in essential healthcare services. In this commentary we describe our experience working with these data and lessons learned across countries. Since April 2020, the Quality Evidence for Health System Transformation (QuEST) network has used administrative data and routine health information systems (RHIS) to assess health system performance during COVID-19 in Chile, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mexico, Nepal, South Africa, Republic of Korea and Thailand. We compiled a large set of indicators related to common health conditions for the purpose of multicountry comparisons. The study compiled 73 indicators. A total of 43% of the indicators compiled pertained to reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH). Only 12% of the indicators were related to hypertension, diabetes or cancer care. We also found few indicators related to mental health services and outcomes within these data systems. Moreover, 72% of the indicators compiled were related to volume of services delivered, 18% to health outcomes and only 10% to the quality of processes of care. While several datasets were complete or near-complete censuses of all health facilities in the country, others excluded some facility types or population groups. In some countries, RHIS did not capture services delivered through non-visit or nonconventional care during COVID-19, such as telemedicine. We propose the following recommendations to improve the analysis of administrative and RHIS data to track health system performance in times of crisis: ensure the scope of health conditions covered is aligned with the burden of disease, increase the number of indicators related to quality of care and health outcomes; incorporate data on nonconventional care such as telehealth; continue improving data quality and expand reporting from private sector facilities; move towards collecting patient-level data through electronic health records to facilitate quality-of-care assessment and equity analyses; implement more resilient and standardized health information technologies; reduce delays and loosen restrictions for researchers to access the data; complement routine data with patient-reported data; and employ mixed methods to better understand the underlying causes of service disruptions.

Geospatial variations in socioeconomic conditions and health outcomes in COVID-19 era: insights from South Africa (2020-2022).

South Africa also has the highest burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) related comorbidities in Africa. We aimed to quantify the temporal and geospatial changes in unemployment, food insecurity, and their combined impact on depressive symptoms among South Africans who participated into several rounds of national surveys. We estimated the population-attributable risk percent (PAR%) for the combinations of the risk factors after accounting for their correlation structure in multifactorial setting. Our study provided compelling evidence for immediate and severe effect of the pandemic where 60% of South Africans reported household food insecurity or household hunger, shortly after the pandemic emerged in 2020. Despite the grants provided by the government, these factors were also identified as the most influential risk factors (adjusted odds ratios (aORs) ranged from 2.06 to 3.10, p < 0.001) for depressive symptoms and collectively associated with 62% and 53% of the mental health symptoms in men and women, respectively. Similar pattern was observed among pregnant women and 41% of the depressive symptoms were exclusively associated with those who reported household hunger. However, aORs associated with the concerns around pandemic and vaccine were mostly not significant and ranged from 1.12 to 1.26 which resulted substantially lower impacts on depressive symptoms (PAR%:7%-and-14%). Our findings suggest that South Africa still has unacceptably high rates of hunger which is accelerated during the pandemic. These results may have significant clinical and epidemiological implications and may also bring partial explanation for the low vaccine coverage in the country, as priorities and concerns are skewed towards economic concerns and food insecurity.

Similar Antibody Responses Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Individuals Living Without and With Human Immunodeficiency Virus on Antiretroviral Therapy During the First South African Infection Wave.

BACKGROUND: There is limited understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pathogenesis in African populations with a high burden of infectious disease comorbidities such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The kinetics, magnitude, and duration of virus-specific antibodies and B-cell responses in people living with HIV (PLWH) in sub-Saharan Africa have not been fully characterized. METHODS: We longitudinally followed SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and characterized SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain-specific immunoglobulin (Ig) M, IgG, and IgA weekly for 1 month and at 3 months post-diagnosis. Thirty of 72 (41.7%) were PLWH, 25/30 (83%) of whom were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with full HIV suppression. Plasma neutralization was determined using a live virus neutralization assay, and antibody-secreting cell population frequencies were determined by flow cytometry. RESULTS: Similar seroconversion rates, time to peak antibody titer, peak magnitude, and durability of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM, IgG, and IgA were observed in people not living with HIV and PLWH with complete HIV suppression on ART. In addition, similar potency in a live virus neutralization assay was observed in both groups. Loss of IgA was significantly associated with age (P = .023) and a previous diagnosis of tuberculosis (P = .018). CONCLUSIONS: Similar antibody responses and neutralization potency in people not living with HIV and PLWH on stable ART in an African setting suggest that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) natural infections may confer comparable antibody immunity in these groups. This provides hope that COVID-19 vaccines will be effective in PLWH on stable ART.

Safety evaluation of the single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine among healthcare workers in the Sisonke study in South Africa: A phase 3b implementation trial.

BACKGROUND: Real-world evaluation of the safety profile of vaccines after licensure is crucial to accurately characterise safety beyond clinical trials, support continued use, and thereby improve public confidence. The Sisonke study aimed to assess the safety and effectiveness of the Janssen Ad26.COV2.S vaccine among healthcare workers (HCWs) in South Africa. Here, we present the safety data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this open-label phase 3b implementation study among all eligible HCWs in South Africa registered in the national Electronic Vaccination Data System (EVDS), we monitored adverse events (AEs) at vaccination sites through self-reporting triggered by text messages after vaccination, healthcare provider reports, and active case finding. The frequency and incidence rate of non-serious and serious AEs were evaluated from the day of first vaccination (17 February 2021) until 28 days after the final vaccination in the study (15 June 2021). COVID-19 breakthrough infections, hospitalisations, and deaths were ascertained via linkage of the electronic vaccination register with existing national databases. Among 477,234 participants, 10,279 AEs were reported, of which 138 (1.3%) were serious AEs (SAEs) or AEs of special interest. Women reported more AEs than men (2.3% versus 1.6%). AE reports decreased with increasing age (3.2% for age 18-30 years, 2.1% for age 31-45 years, 1.8% for age 46-55 years, and 1.5% for age > 55 years). Participants with previous COVID-19 infection reported slightly more AEs (2.6% versus 2.1%). The most common reactogenicity events were headache (n = 4,923) and body aches (n = 4,483), followed by injection site pain (n = 2,767) and fever (n = 2,731), and most occurred within 48 hours of vaccination. Two cases of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome and 4 cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome were reported post-vaccination. Most SAEs and AEs of special interest (n = 138) occurred at lower than the expected population rates. Vascular (n = 37; 39.1/100,000 person-years) and nervous system disorders (n = 31; 31.7/100,000 person-years), immune system disorders (n = 24; 24.3/100,000 person-years), and infections and infestations (n = 19; 20.1/100,000 person-years) were the most common reported SAE categories. A limitation of the study was the single-arm design, with limited routinely collected morbidity comparator data in the study setting. CONCLUSIONS: We observed similar patterns of AEs as in phase 3 trials. AEs were mostly expected reactogenicity signs and symptoms. Furthermore, most SAEs occurred below expected rates. The single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine demonstrated an acceptable safety profile, supporting the continued use of this vaccine in this setting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04838795; Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202102855526180.

Quantifying the temporal changes in geographical-level contributions of risk factors to hypertension (2008-2017): Results from national surveys.

South Africa has one of the world's highest proportions of hypertensive individuals, which has become a major public health problem. Understanding the temporal and spatial patterns in hypertension rates is crucial for evaluating the existing prevention and care models, which have not been fully understood in South Africa. The geoadditive models were used to quantify the geographical clustering of hypertension in the Black South African population enrolled in the most recent cross-sectional national surveys (2008-2017). Population-attributable risks were calculated for modifiable risk factors. 80,270 men (41%) and women (59%) aged 15+ were included. Using the 2017 guidelines, 52% of the men and 51% of the women were classified as hypertensive. As expected, these proportions were slightly lower when we used the previous guidelines (48% and 47% for men and women, respectively). There was significant geospatial heterogeneity in hypertension prevalence with substantial province-specific disparities. Western, Northern, and Eastern Capes were the most significant provinces, with >50% of the hypertensive men and women. The population-level impact of obesity remained high in all provinces, where 33%-to-57% and 47%-to-65% of hypertensives were exclusively associated with obese/overweight men and women respectively. Despite some improvements in certain areas, most of the country is behind the targeted levels set in 2011/2013. Identifying the most relevant risk factors and their sub-geographical-level contributions to hypertension may have significant public health implications for developing and implementing cost-effective prevention programs to raise awareness of healthy diet and lifestyle behaviours.

Using joint models to study the association between CD4 count and the risk of death in TB/HIV data.

BACKGROUND: The association structure linking the longitudinal and survival sub-models is of fundamental importance in the joint modeling framework and the choice of this structure should be made based on the clinical background of the study. However, this information may not always be accessible and rationale for selecting this association structure has received relatively little attention in the literature. To this end, we aim to explore four alternative functional forms of the association structure between the CD4 count and the risk of death and provide rationale for selecting the optimal association structure for our data. We also aim to compare the results obtained from the joint model to those obtained from the time-varying Cox model. METHODS: We used data from the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA) AIDS Treatment programme, the Starting Antiretroviral Therapy at Three Points in Tuberculosis (SAPiT) study, an open-label, three armed randomised, controlled trial between June 2005 and July 2010 (N=642). In our analysis, we combined the early and late integrated arms and compared results to the sequential arm. We utilized the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) to select the final model with the best structure, with smaller values indicating better model adjustments to the data. RESULTS: Patient characteristics were similar across the study arms. Combined integrated therapy arms had a reduction of 55% in mortality (HR:0.45, 95% CI:0.28-0.72) compared to the sequential therapy arm. The joint model with a cumulative effects functional form was chosen as the best association structure. In particular, our joint model found that the area under the longitudinal profile of CD4 count was strongly associated with a 21% reduction in mortality (HR:0.79, 95% CI:0.72-0.86). Where as results from the time-varying Cox model showed a 19% reduction in mortality (HR:0.81, 95% CI:0.77-0.84). CONCLUSIONS: In this paper we have shown that the "current value" association structure is not always the best structure that expresses the correct relationship between the outcomes in all settings, which is why it is crucial to explore alternative clinically meaningful association structures that links the longitudinal and survival processes.

Determining HIV risk for Adolescent Girls and Young Women (AGYW) in relationships with "Blessers" and age-disparate partners: a cross-sectional survey in four districts in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) remains high, with their male partners a prominent factor in sustaining these elevated rates. Partnership characteristics remain important metrics for determining HIV risk, with evidence indicating that AGYW engaged in transactional and age-disparate relationships face greater HIV exposure. This study examines the risk posed to AGYW in a relationship with a "Blesser", defined as male who provides his female partner with their material needs or desires in exchange for a sexual relationship, an age-disparate (5 or more years older) partner, and the potential compounded risk of being a relationship with a partner or partners who are considered both a "Blesser" and age-disparate. METHODS: A cross -sectional household based representative sample of AGYW (aged between 12-24 years) were enrolled in the study (n = 18 926) from the districts of City of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni in the Gauteng province and the Districts of eThekwini and uMgungundlovu in the province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) in South Africa between March 13, 2017 to June 22, 2018. Participants completed a structured questionnaire and provided finger-prick blood samples for laboratory measurements. Our analysis used descriptive statistics and multiple binary logistic regressions accounting for survey weights, clustering and stratification. FINDINGS: The median age of the sample was 21 years old (Interquartile range: 19-23) and nearly three quarters (73.7%) were currently attending school. Whilst all relationships exposed AGYW to potential HIV risk, multiple binary logistic regression analysis revealed that AGYW in a relationship with both a Blesser and an age-disparate partner were more likely to be HIV positive (AOR: 3.12, 95% CI: 1.76-5.53, p < 0.001), diagnosed with an STI (AOR: 4.60, 95% CI: 2.99-7.08, p < 0.001), had 2 or more sexual partners in the previous 12 months (AOR: 6.37, 95% CI: 3.85-10.54, p < 0.001), engaged in sexual activity at age 15 or younger (AOR: 3.67, 95% CI: 2.36-5.69, p < 0.001) and more likely to have ever been pregnant (AOR: 2.60, 95% CI: 1.24-5.45, p < 0.05) than those not in a relationship with either a Blesser or age-disparate partner. CONCLUSION: Different relationships present different HIV risk to AGYW. AGYW who had engaged in relationships with both a Blesser and an age-disparate partner were at greater HIV risk when examined against these relationships independent of one another. The data reveals the compounded HIV risk of being in both a transactional and age-disparate relationship.

Maternal and Infant Outcomes Among Pregnant Women Treated for Multidrug/Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Data on safety and efficacy of second-line tuberculosis drugs in pregnant women and their infants are severely limited due to exclusion from clinical trials and expanded access programs. METHODS: Pregnant women starting treatment for multidrug/rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR)-tuberculosis at King Dinuzulu Hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2017, were included. We conducted a record review to describe maternal treatment and pregnancy outcomes, and a clinical assessment to describe infant outcomes. RESULTS: Of 108 pregnant women treated for MDR/RR-tuberculosis, 88 (81%) were living with human immunodeficiency virus.. Favorable MDR/RR-tuberculosis treatment outcomes were reported in 72 (67%) women. Ninety-nine (91%) of the 109 babies were born alive, but overall, 52 (48%) women had unfavorable pregnancy outcomes. Fifty-eight (54%) women received bedaquiline, and 49 (45%) babies were exposed to bedaquiline in utero. Low birth weight was reported in more babies exposed to bedaquiline compared to babies not exposed (45% vs 26%; P = .034). In multivariate analyses, bedaquiline and levofloxacin, drugs often used in combination, were both independently associated with increased risk of low birth weight. Of the 86 children evaluated at 12 months, 72 (84%) had favorable outcomes; 88% of babies exposed to bedaquiline were thriving and developing normally compared to 82% of the babies not exposed. CONCLUSIONS: MDR/RR-tuberculosis treatment outcomes among pregnant women were comparable to nonpregnant women. Although more babies exposed to bedaquiline were of low birth weight, over 80% had gained weight and were developing normally at 1 year.

Subtype-specific differences in Gag-protease replication capacity of HIV-1 isolates from East and West Africa.

BACKGROUND: The HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa is heterogeneous with diverse unevenly distributed subtypes and regional differences in prevalence. Subtype-specific differences in disease progression rate and transmission efficiency have been reported, but the underlying biological mechanisms have not been fully characterized. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the subtypes prevalent in the East Africa, where adult prevalence rate is higher, have lower viral replication capacity (VRC) than their West African counterparts where adult prevalence rates are lower. RESULTS: Gag-protease sequencing was performed on 213 and 160 antiretroviral-naïve chronically infected participants from West and East Africa respectively and bioinformatic tools were used to infer subtypes and recombination patterns. VRC of patient-derived gag-protease chimeric viruses from West (n = 178) and East (n = 114) Africa were determined using a green fluorescent protein reporter-based cell assay. Subtype and regional differences in VRC and amino acid variants impacting VRC were identified by statistical methods. CRF02_AG (65%, n = 139), other recombinants (14%, n = 30) and pure subtypes (21%, n = 44) were identified in West Africa. Subtypes A1 (64%, n = 103), D (22%, n = 35), or recombinants (14%, n = 22) were identified in East Africa. Viruses from West Africa had significantly higher VRC compared to those from East Africa (p < 0.0001), with subtype-specific differences found among strains within West and East Africa (p < 0.0001). Recombination patterns showed a preference for subtypes D, G or J rather than subtype A in the p6 region of gag, with evidence that subtype-specific differences in this region impact VRC. Furthermore, the Gag A83V polymorphism was associated with reduced VRC in CRF02_AG. HLA-A*23:01 (p = 0.0014) and HLA-C*07:01 (p = 0.002) were associated with lower VRC in subtype A infected individuals from East Africa. CONCLUSIONS: Although prevalent viruses from West Africa displayed higher VRC than those from East Africa consistent with the hypothesis that lower VRC is associated with higher population prevalence, the predominant CRF02_AG strain in West Africa displayed higher VRC than other prevalent strains suggesting that VRC alone does not explain population prevalence. The study identified viral and host genetic determinants of virus replication capacity for HIV-1 CRF02_AG and subtype A respectively, which may have relevance for vaccine strategies.

Short-term real-time prediction of total number of reported COVID-19 cases and deaths in South Africa: a data driven approach.

BACKGROUND: The rising burden of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa has motivated the application of modeling strategies to predict the COVID-19 cases and deaths. Reliable and accurate short and long-term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths, both at the national and provincial level, are a key aspect of the strategy to handle the COVID-19 epidemic in the country. METHODS: In this paper we apply the previously validated approach of phenomenological models, fitting several non-linear growth curves (Richards, 3 and 4 parameter logistic, Weibull and Gompertz), to produce short term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths at the national level as well as the provincial level. Using publicly available daily reported cumulative case and death data up until 22 June 2020, we report 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30-day ahead forecasts of cumulative cases and deaths. All predictions are compared to the actual observed values in the forecasting period. RESULTS: We observed that all models for cases provided accurate and similar short-term forecasts for a period of 5 days ahead at the national level, and that the three and four parameter logistic growth models provided more accurate forecasts than that obtained from the Richards model 10 days ahead. However, beyond 10 days all models underestimated the cumulative cases. Our forecasts across the models predict an additional 23,551-26,702 cases in 5 days and an additional 47,449-57,358 cases in 10 days. While the three parameter logistic growth model provided the most accurate forecasts of cumulative deaths within the 10 day period, the Gompertz model was able to better capture the changes in cumulative deaths beyond this period. Our forecasts across the models predict an additional 145-437 COVID-19 deaths in 5 days and an additional 243-947 deaths in 10 days. CONCLUSIONS: By comparing both the predictions of deaths and cases to the observed data in the forecasting period, we found that this modeling approach provides reliable and accurate forecasts for a maximum period of 10 days ahead.

Temporal trends in sexual behaviours and their impacts on HIV incidence among South African women: 2002-2016.

South Africa has the highest number of HIV infected individuals in the world. The primary objective of the current study was to describe temporal changes in HIV incidence rates using the data from 9,948 women who enrolled in one of the six HIV prevention trials conducted in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Characteristics of the study population were presented and compared across the four study periods: 2002-2004, 2005-2008, 2009-2011 and 2012-2016. HIV infection rates increased from 6.2 to 9.3 per 100 person-year over the 15 years. These rates were as high as 14 per 100 person-year among women younger than 20 years age. Being single/not cohabiting, using injectable contraceptives, having less than two children, and diagnosed with STI(s) were associated with increased risk of HIV infection. These four factors were associated with 71%, 75%, 80% and 88% of the HIV seroconversions in four study periods. As the research continues to find ways of controlling the spread of the infections, quantifying the temporal trends in risk factors and their population-level impacts on HIV infection may have significant implications. This information may assist in developing effective counselling and education programs by targeting the sexually active single women and delivering more realistic messages.