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BACKGROUND: Hospice-at-home aims to enable patients approaching end-of-life to die at home and support their carers. A wide range of different service models exists but synthesised evidence on how best to support family carers to provide sustainable end-of-life care at home is limited. AIM: To explore what works best to promote family carers' experiences of hospice-at-home. DESIGN: Realist evaluation with mixed methods. This paper focuses on qualitative interviews with carers (to gain their perspective and as proxy for patients) and service providers from 12 case study sites in England. Interviews were coded and programme theories were refined by the research team including two public members. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Interviews with carers (involved daily) of patients admitted to hospice-at-home services (n = 58) and hospice-at-home staff (n = 78). RESULTS: Post bereavement, 76.4% of carers thought that they had received as much help and support as they needed and most carers (75.8%) rated the help and support as excellent or outstanding. Of six final programme theories capturing key factors relevant to providing optimum services, those directly relevant to carer experiences were: integration and co-ordination of services; knowledge, skills and ethos of hospice staff; volunteer roles; support directed at the patient-carer dyad. CONCLUSIONS: Carers in hospice-at-home services identified care to be of a higher quality than generic community services. Hospice staff were perceived as having 'time to care', communicated well and were comfortable with dying and death. Hands-on care was particularly valued in the period close to death.
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Servicios de Atención de Salud a Domicilio , Cuidados Paliativos al Final de la Vida , Cuidado Terminal , Humanos , Cuidadores , Cuidados Paliativos/métodosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Growing prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the ageing population and its associated life-changing health and resource implications have led to a need to improve its early detection. Primary care is an ideal place to screen for AF; however, this is limited by shortages in general practitioner (GP) resources. Recent increases in the number of clinical pharmacists within primary care makes them ideally placed to conduct AF screening. This study aimed to determine the feasibility of GP practice-based clinical pharmacists to screen the over-65s for AF, using digital technology and pulse palpation during the influenza vaccination season. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Screening was conducted over two influenza vaccination seasons, 2017-2018 and 2018-2019, in four GP practices in Kent, United Kingdom. Pharmacists were trained by a cardiologist to pulse palpate, record, and interpret a single-lead ECG (SLECG). Eligible persons aged ≥65 years (y) attending an influenza vaccination clinic were offered a free heart rhythm check. Six hundred four participants were screened (median age 73 y, 42.7% male). Total prevalence of AF was 4.3%. All participants with AF qualified for anticoagulation and were more likely to be male (57.7%); be older; have an increased body mass index (BMI); and have a CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score ≥ 3. The sensitivity and specificity of clinical pharmacists diagnosing AF using pulse palpation was 76.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 56.4-91.0) and 92.2% (95% CI 89.7-94.3), respectively. This rose to 88.5% (95% CI 69.9-97.6) and 97.2% (95% CI 95.5-98.4) with an SLECG. At follow-up, four participants (0.7%) were diagnosed with new AF and three (0.5%) were initiated on anticoagulation. Screening with SLECG also helped identify new non-AF cardiovascular diagnoses, such as left ventricular hypertrophy, in 28 participants (4.6%). The screening strategy was cost-effective in 71.8% and 64.3% of the estimates for SLECG or pulse palpation, respectively. Feedback from participants (422/604) was generally positive. Key limitations of the study were that the intervention did not reach individuals who did not attend the practice for an influenza vaccination and there was a limited representation of UK ethnic minority groups in the study cohort. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that AF screening performed by GP practice-based pharmacists was feasible, economically viable, and positively endorsed by participants. Furthermore, diagnosis of AF by the clinical pharmacist using an SLECG was more sensitive and more specific than the use of pulse palpation alone. Future research should explore the key barriers preventing the adoption of national screening programmes.
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Fibrilación Atrial/diagnóstico , Atención a la Salud/organización & administración , Farmacéuticos , Cuidados Posteriores , Anciano , Algoritmos , Fibrilación Atrial/epidemiología , Cardiólogos , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Atención a la Salud/economía , Electrocardiografía/economía , Estudios de Factibilidad , Femenino , Determinación de la Frecuencia Cardíaca/métodos , Humanos , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Masculino , Prevalencia , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Reino Unido/epidemiología , VacunaciónRESUMEN
We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a UK cohort study which enrolled participants at risk of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI, defined as a positive result for either of the two interferon gamma release assays). Binomial regression with a log link was used to estimate crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% CIs for the relationship between diabetes mellitus (DM) and LTBI. Adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index and the presence of other immunocompromising conditions, DM was associated with a 15% higher prevalence of LTBI (adjusted PR=1.15, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.30, p=0.025). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PREDICT is registered on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01162265).
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Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiología , Tuberculosis Latente/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Humanos , Ensayos de Liberación de Interferón gamma , Tuberculosis Latente/diagnóstico , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted on the delivery of clinical trials in the UK, posing complicated organisational challenges and requiring adaptations, especially to exercise intervention studies based in the community. We aim to identify the challenges of public involvement, recruitment, consent, follow-up, intervention and the healthcare professional delivery aspects of a feasibility study of exercise in hypertensive primary care patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. While these challenges elicited many reactive changes which were specific to, and only relevant in the context of 'lockdown' requirements, some of the protocol developments that came about during this unprecedented period have great potential to inform more permanent practices for carrying out this type of research. To this end, we detail the necessary adaptations to many elements of the feasibility study and critically reflect on our approach to redesigning and amending this ongoing project in order to maintain its viability to date. Some of the more major protocol adaptations, such as moving the study to remote means wherever possible, had further unforeseen and undesirable outcomes (eg, additional appointments) with regards to extra resources required to deliver the study. However, other changes improved the efficiency of the study, such as the remote informed consent and the direct advertising with prescreening survey. The adaptations to the study have clear links to the UK Plan for the future of research delivery. It is intended that this specific documentation and critical evaluation will help those planning or delivering similar studies to do so in a more resource efficient and effective way. In conclusion, it is essential to reflect and respond with protocol changes in the current climate in order to deliver clinical research successfully, as in the case of this particular study.
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COVID-19 , Hipertensión , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemias/prevención & control , Estudios de Factibilidad , Ejercicio Físico , Hipertensión/terapiaRESUMEN
The counties of Kent, Surrey and Sussex (KSS) in South East England are creating anonymized, linked databases of healthcare records for audit, service planning and research for the first time. We consulted with 79 citizens from KSS in 5 deliberative focus groups, asking about perceived benefits and concerns regarding these new data assets. Participants hoped the linked datasets could be used for joining up care and information, improving efficiency, and improving healthcare provision, but were concerned about missing and inaccurate data, data breaches and hacking, use of data by profit-making organisations, and stigma and discrimination. Findings will be used to underpin governance and engagement strategies for integrated datasets in KSS.
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Atención a la Salud , Instituciones de Salud , Bases de Datos Factuales , Inglaterra , Grupos Focales , HumanosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Hypertension (HTN) affects approximately 25% of the UK population and is a leading cause of mortality. Associated annual health care costs run into billions. National treatment guidance includes initial lifestyle advice, followed by anti-hypertensive medication if blood pressure (BP) remains high. However, adoption and adherence to recommended exercise guidelines, dietary advice and anti-hypertensive medication is poor. Four short bouts of isometric exercise (IE) performed 3 days per week (d/wk) at home elicits clinically significant reductions in BP in those with normal to high-normal BP. This study will determine the feasibility of delivering personalised IE to patients with stage 1 hypertension for whom lifestyle changes would be recommended before medication within NHS primary care. METHODS: This is a randomised controlled feasibility study. Participants were 18+ years, with stage 1 hypertension, not on anti-hypertensive medication and without significant medical contraindications. Trial arms will be standard lifestyle advice (control) or isometric wall squat exercise and standard lifestyle advice. Primary outcomes include the feasibility of healthcare professionals to deliver isometric exercise prescriptions in a primary care NHS setting and estimation of the variance of change in systolic BP. Secondary outcomes include accuracy of protocol delivery, execution of and adherence to protocol, recruitment rate, attrition, perception of intervention viability, cost, participant experience and accuracy of home BP. The study will last 18 months. Sample size of 100 participants (50 per arm) allows for 20% attrition and 6.5% incomplete data, based upon 74 (37 each arm) participants (two-sided 95% confidence interval, width of 1.33 and standard deviation of 4) completing 4 weeks. Ethical approval IRAS ID is 274676. DISCUSSION: Before the efficacy of this novel intervention to treat stage 1 hypertension can be investigated in any large randomised controlled trial, it is necessary to ascertain if it can be delivered and carried out in a NHS primary care setting. Findings could support IE viability as a prophylactic/alternative treatment option. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN13472393 , registered 18 August 2020.
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OBJECTIVE: Hospice at Home (HAH) services aim to enable patients to be cared for and die at home, if that is their choice and achieve a 'good death'. A national survey, in 2017, aimed to describe and compare the features of HAH services and understand key enablers to service provision. METHODS: Service managers of adult HAH services in the 'Hospice UK' and National Association for Hospice at Home directories within England were invited to participate. Information on service configuration, referral, staffing, finance, care provision and enablers to service provision were collected by telephone interview. RESULTS: Of 128 services invited, 70 (54.7%) provided data. Great diversity was found. Most services operated in mixed urban/rural (74.3%) and mixed deprivation (77.1%) areas and provided hands-on care (97.1%), symptom assessment and management (91.4%), psychosocial support (94.3%) and respite care (74.3%). Rapid response (within 4 hours) was available in 65.7%; hands-on care 24 hours a day in 52.2%. Charity donations were the main source of funding for 71.2%. Key enablers for service provision included working with local services (eg, district nursing, general practitioner services), integrated health records, funding and anticipatory care planning. Access to timely medication and equipment was critical. CONCLUSION: There is considerable variation in HAH services in England. Due to this variation it was not possible to categorise services into delivery types. Services work to supplement local care using a flexible approach benefitting from integration and funding. Further work defining service features related to patient and/or carer outcomes would support future service development.
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Servicios de Atención de Salud a Domicilio , Cuidados Paliativos al Final de la Vida , Hospitales para Enfermos Terminales , Adulto , Cuidadores , Inglaterra , HumanosRESUMEN
Introduction: Digital programmes in the newly created NHS integrated care boards (ICBs) in the United Kingdom mean that curation and linkage of anonymised patient data is underway in many areas for the first time. In Kent, Surrey and Sussex (KSS), in Southeast England, public health teams want to use these datasets to answer strategic population health questions, but public expectations around use of patient data are unknown. Objectives: We aimed to engage with citizens of KSS to gather their views and expectations of data linkage and re-use, through deliberative discussions. Methods: We held five 3-hour deliberative focus groups with 79 citizens of KSS, presenting information about potential uses of data, safeguards, and mechanisms for public involvement in governance and decision making about datasets. After each presentation, participants discussed their views in facilitated small groups which were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. Results: The focus groups generated 15 themes representing participants' views on the benefits, risks and values for safeguarding linked data. Participants largely supported use of patient data to improve health service efficiency and resource management, preventative services and out of hospital care, joined-up services and information flows. Most participants expressed concerns about data accuracy, breaches and hacking, and worried about commercial use of data. They suggested that transparency of data usage through audit trails and clear information about accountability, ensuring data re-use does not perpetuate stigma and discrimination, ongoing, inclusive and valued involvement of the public in dataset decision-making, and a commitment to building trust, would meet their expectations for responsible data use. Conclusions: Participants were largely favourable about the proposed uses of patient linked datasets but expected a commitment to transparency and public involvement. Findings were mapped to previous tenets of social license and can be used to inform ICB digital programme teams on how to proceed with use of linked datasets in a trustworthy and socially acceptable way.
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BACKGROUND: Interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) are blood tests recommended for the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) infection. There is currently uncertainty about the role and clinical utility of IGRAs in the diagnostic workup of suspected active TB in routine NHS clinical practice. OBJECTIVES: To compare the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of T-SPOT.TB® (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK) and QuantiFERON® TB GOLD In-Tube (Cellestis, Carnegie, VIC, Australia) for diagnosis of suspected active TB and to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of second-generation IGRAs. DESIGN: Prospective within-patient comparative diagnostic accuracy study. SETTING: Secondary care. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (aged ≥ 16 years) presenting as inpatients or outpatients at 12 NHS hospital trusts in London, Slough, Oxford, Leicester and Birmingham with suspected active TB. INTERVENTIONS: The index tests [T-SPOT.TB and QuantiFERON GOLD In-Tube (QFT-GIT)] and new enzyme-linked immunospot assays utilising novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigens (Rv3615c, Rv2654, Rv3879c and Rv3873) were verified against a composite reference standard applied by a panel of clinical experts blinded to IGRA results. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios were calculated to determine diagnostic accuracy. A decision tree model was developed to calculate the incremental costs and incremental health utilities [quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)] of changing from current practice to using an IGRA as an initial rule-out test. RESULTS: A total of 363 patients had active TB (culture-confirmed and highly probable TB cases), 439 had no active TB and 43 had an indeterminate final diagnosis. Comparing T-SPOT.TB and QFT-GIT, the sensitivities [95% confidence interval (CI)] were 82.3% (95% CI 77.7% to 85.9%) and 67.3% (95% CI 62.1% to 72.2%), respectively, whereas specificities were 82.6% (95% CI 78.6% to 86.1%) and 80.4% (95% CI 76.1% to 84.1%), respectively. T-SPOT.TB was more sensitive than QFT-GIT (relative sensitivity 1.22, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.31; p < 0.001), but the specificities were similar (relative specificity 1.02, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.08; p = 0.3). For both IGRAs the sensitivity was lower and the specificity was higher for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive than for HIV-negative patients. The most promising novel antigen was Rv3615c. The added value of Rv3615c to T-SPOT.TB was a 9% (95% CI 5% to 12%) relative increase in sensitivity at the expense of specificity, which had a relative decrease of 7% (95% CI 4% to 10%). The use of current IGRA tests for ruling out active TB is unlikely to be considered cost-effective if a QALY was valued at £20,000 or £30,000. For T-SPOT.TB, the probability of being cost-effective for a willingness to pay of £20,000/QALY was 26% and 21%, when patients with indeterminate test results were excluded or included, respectively. In comparison, the QFT-GIT probabilities were 8% and 6%. Although the use of IGRAs is cost saving, the health detriment is large owing to delay in diagnosing active TB, leading to prolonged illness. There was substantial between-patient variation in the tests used in the diagnostic pathway. LIMITATIONS: The recruitment target for the HIV co-infected population was not achieved. CONCLUSIONS: Although T-SPOT.TB was more sensitive than QFT-GIT for the diagnosis of active TB, the tests are insufficiently sensitive for ruling out active TB in routine clinical practice in the UK. Novel assays offer some promise. FUTURE WORK: The novel assays require evaluation in distinct clinical settings and in immunosuppressed patient groups. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the world's most important infectious diseases. In 2014, 1.5 million deaths were caused by the disease about one death every 25 seconds. Traditional diagnosis of TB is based partly on the tuberculin skin test. Blood tests such as QuantiFERON GOLD In-Tube (QFT-GIT; Cellestis, Carnegie, VIC, Australia) and T-SPOT.TB® (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK) are now available. However, these two tests are not used as part of current NHS practice because of the lack of evidence about how well the tests perform when diagnosing symptomatic (active) TB in routine clinical practice. The purpose of our study was to compare the ability of QFT-GIT and T-SPOT.TB to differentiate people with active TB from those without active TB in a population suspected of the disease. We also assessed new blood tests that are currently being developed for diagnosis of active TB. We recruited 1074 patients with suspected TB from 14 NHS hospitals in London, Slough, Oxford, Leicester and Birmingham into our study. We found that T-SPOT.TB correctly detected more people with active TB than QFT-GIT; T-SPOT.TB would miss about 18 people out of every 100, whereas QFT-GIT would miss about 33 people out of every 100 with active TB. For this reason, neither test is good enough for routine clinical use because the number of people with active TB who are incorrectly diagnosed as not having active TB is unacceptably high. In addition, neither test is good value for money. However, we did find that some of the newer blood tests performed better than T-SPOT.TB and their usefulness should be further investigated.
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Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Ensayos de Liberación de Interferón gamma/economía , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Prueba de Tuberculina/economía , Tuberculosis/diagnóstico , Adolescente , Adulto , Antígenos Bacterianos , Árboles de Decisión , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Estudios Prospectivos , Años de Vida Ajustados por Calidad de Vida , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Tuberculosis/sangre , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The clinical utility of interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) for diagnosis of active tuberculosis is unclear, although they are commonly used in countries with a low incidence of tuberculosis. We aimed to resolve this clinical uncertainty by determining the accuracy and utility of commercially available and second-generation IGRAs in the diagnostic assessment of suspected tuberculosis in a low-incidence setting. METHODS: We did a prospective cohort study of adults with suspected tuberculosis in routine secondary care in England. Patients were tested for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection at baseline with commercially available (T-SPOT.TB and QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube [QFT-GIT]) and second-generation (incorporating novel M tuberculosis antigens) IGRAs and followed up for 6-12 months to establish definitive diagnoses. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and predictive values of the tests were determined. FINDINGS: Of the 1060 adults enrolled in the study, 845 were included in the analyses and 363 were diagnosed with tuberculosis. Sensitivity of T-SPOT.TB for all tuberculosis diagnosis, including culture-confirmed and highly probable cases, was 81·4% (95% CI 76·6-85·3), which was higher than QFT-GIT (67·3% [62·0-72·1]). Second-generation IGRAs had a sensitivity of 94·0% (90·0-96·4) for culture-confirmed tuberculosis and 89·2% (85·2-92·2) when including highly probable tuberculosis, giving a negative likelihood ratio for all tuberculosis cases of 0·13 (95% CI 0·10-0·19). Specificity ranged from 86·2% (95% CI 82·3-89·4) for T-SPOT.TB to 80·0% (75·6-83·8) for second-generation IGRAs. INTERPRETATION: Commercially available IGRAs do not have sufficient accuracy for diagnostic evaluation of suspected tuberculosis. Second-generation tests, however, might have sufficiently high sensitivity, low negative likelihood ratio, and correspondingly high negative predictive value in low-incidence settings to facilitate prompt rule-out of tuberculosis. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.
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Ensayos de Liberación de Interferón gamma/métodos , Ensayos de Liberación de Interferón gamma/normas , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/inmunología , Tuberculosis Pulmonar/diagnóstico , Tuberculosis Pulmonar/epidemiología , Adulto , Antígenos Bacterianos/inmunología , Proteínas Bacterianas/inmunología , Exactitud de los Datos , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Estudios Prospectivos , Tuberculosis Pulmonar/sangreRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects >6% of people aged 65 years or older. Left undetected and untreated, patients may develop significant cardiovascular complications and have a fivefold increased risk of suffering a stroke. For 40% of all sufferers, AF can be asymptomatic. Every year in the UK, £2.2 billion is spent on AF-related strokes, so there is an urgent need to improve early detection of AF. This study aims to determine the feasibility of using trained clinical pharmacists based in general practices, to screen for AF, using pulse palpation and a single-lead ECG device on participants aged 65 years or older, attending influenza vaccination clinics. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Seven clinical pharmacists will be trained by a cardiologist to pulse palpate and record single-lead ECGs using the AliveCor Kardia Mobile device. Quantitative analysis will assess the accuracy and ability of the clinical pharmacist to identify pulse irregularities using pulse palpation and to record and interpret a single-lead ECG. The level of agreement of pulse irregularities detected by pulse palpation will be compared with those detected by the single-lead ECG device, as will the level of agreement between the cardiologist and the device's interpretation of the ECG. The proportion of people identified with AF (confirmed by the cardiologist) will be determined. Additional demographic data will be obtained from all participants through a questionnaire. Qualitative data will be captured from the participants, from the clinical pharmacists and from the general practitioners and practice staff to determine their views on this method of AF screening. We aim to recruit 600 participants across general practices within Kent. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol was approved by the London-Riverside Research Ethics committee. The findings of this study will be disseminated through forums including, but not limited to, peer-reviewed journals, national and international conferences.
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Fibrilación Atrial/diagnóstico , Medicina General/organización & administración , Frecuencia Cardíaca , Tamizaje Masivo/métodos , Farmacéuticos , Anciano , Enfermedades Asintomáticas , Estudios Transversales , Electrocardiografía/instrumentación , Estudios de Factibilidad , Humanos , Aplicaciones Móviles/estadística & datos numéricos , Accidente Cerebrovascular/prevención & controlRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Tackling tuberculosis requires testing and treatment of latent tuberculosis in high-risk groups. The aim of this study was to estimate the predictive values of the tuberculin skin test (TST) and two interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) for the development of active tuberculosis in high-risk groups-ie, people in recent contact with active tuberculosis cases and from high-burden countries. METHOD: In this prospective cohort study, we recruited participants from 54 centres (eg, clinics, community settings) in London, Birmingham, and Leicester in the UK. Participants were eligible if they were aged 16 years or older and at high risk for latent tuberculosis infection (ie, recent contact with someone with active tuberculosis [contacts] or a migrant who had arrived in the UK in the past 5 years from-or who frequently travelled to-a country with a high burden of tuberculosis [migrants]). Exclusion criteria included prevalent cases of tuberculosis, and participants who were treated for latent tuberculosis after a positive test result in this study. Each participant received three tests (QuantiFERON-TB Gold-In Tube, T-SPOT.TB, and a Mantoux TST). A positive TST result was reported using three thresholds: 5 mm (TST-5), 10 mm (TST-10), and greater than 5 mm in BCG-naive or 15 mm in BCG-vaccinated (TST-15) participants. Participants were followed up from recruitment to development of tuberculosis or censoring. Incident tuberculosis cases were identified by national tuberculosis databases, telephone interview, and review of medical notes. Our primary objective was to estimate the prognostic value of IGRAs compared with TST, assessed by the ratio of incidence rate ratios and predictive values for tuberculosis development. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01162265, and is now complete. FINDINGS: Between May 4, 2010, and June 1, 2015, 10â045 people were recruited, of whom 9610 were eligible for inclusion. Of this cohort, 4861 (50·6%) were contacts and 4749 (49·4%) were migrants. Participants were followed up for a median of 2·9 years (range 21 days to 5·9 years). 97 (1·0%) of 9610 participants developed active tuberculosis (77 [1·2%] of 6380 with results for all three tests). In all tests, annual incidence of tuberculosis was very low in those who tested negatively (ranging from 1·2 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 0·6-2·0 for TST-5 to 1·9 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 1·3-2·7, for QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube). Annual incidence in participants who tested positively were highest for T-SPOT.TB (13·2 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 9·9-17·4), TST-15 (11·1 per 1000 person-years, 8·3-14·6), and QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (10·1 per 1000 person-years, 7·4-13·4). Positive results for these tests were significantly better predictors of progression than TST-10 and TST-5 (eg, ratio of test positivity rates in those progressing to tuberculosis compared with those not progressing T-SPOT.TB vs TST-5: 1·99, 95% CI 1·68-2·34; p<0·0001). However, TST-5 identified a higher proportion of participants who progressed to active tuberculosis (64 [83%] of 77 tested) than all other tests and TST thresholds (≤75%). INTERPRETATION: IGRA-based or BCG-stratified TST strategies appear most suited to screening for potential disease progression among high-risk groups. Further work will be needed to assess country-specific cost-effectiveness of each screening test, and in the absence of highly specific diagnostic tests, cheap non-toxic treatments need to be developed that could be given to larger groups of people at potential risk. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme 08-68-01.