Effectiveness of population-based recovery actions for threatened southern mountain caribou.

Habitat loss is affecting many species, including the southern mountain caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population in western North America. Over the last half century, this threatened caribou population's range and abundance have dramatically contracted. An integrated population model was used to analyze 51 years (1973-2023) of demographic data from 40 southern mountain caribou subpopulations to assess the effectiveness of population-based recovery actions at increasing population growth. Reducing potential limiting factors on threatened caribou populations offered a rare opportunity to identify the causes of decline and assess methods of recovery. Southern mountain caribou abundance declined by 51% between 1991 and 2023, and 37% of subpopulations were functionally extirpated. Wolf reduction was the only recovery action that consistently increased population growth when applied in isolation, and combinations of wolf reductions with maternal penning or supplemental feeding provided rapid growth but were applied to only four subpopulations. As of 2023, recovery actions have increased the abundance of southern mountain caribou by 52%, compared to a simulation with no interventions. When predation pressure was reduced, rapid population growth was observed, even under contemporary climate change and high levels of habitat loss. Unless predation is reduced, caribou subpopulations will continue to be extirpated well before habitat conservation and restoration can become effective.

Context effects: the proportional difference model and the reflection of preference.

The reflection effect (D. Kahneman & A. Tversky, 1979) was investigated using the stochastic model of choice developed by C. Gonzalez-Vallejo (2002). The model assumes that individuals make trade-offs among attribute values by relying on a difference variable. The model also specifies a threshold representing individual proclivities to reach to attribute differences. Two experiments demonstrated that changes in risk attitudes, from a gain to a loss situation, depended on the stimuli as well as on individuals' thresholds. Thresholds were generally lower in losses than in gains, indicating a risk-taking tendency. Thresholds were also lower when participants were endowed with greater savings. Model testing revealed better fits for the stochastic model than cumulative prospect theory (A. Tversky &. D. Kahneman, 1992).