Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden.

BACKGROUND: With over 800 million cases globally, campylobacteriosis is a major cause of food borne disease. In temperate climates incidence is highly seasonal but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood, making human disease control difficult. We hypothesised that observed disease patterns reflect complex interactions between weather, patterns of human risk behaviour, immune status and level of food contamination. Only by understanding these can we find effective interventions. METHODS: We analysed trends in human Campylobacter cases in NE England from 2004 to 2009, investigating the associations between different risk factors and disease using time-series models. We then developed an individual-based (IB) model of risk behaviour, human immunological responses to infection and environmental contamination driven by weather and land use. We parameterised the IB model for NE England and compared outputs to observed numbers of reported cases each month in the population in 2004-2009. Finally, we used it to investigate different community level disease reduction strategies. RESULTS: Risk behaviours like countryside visits (t = 3.665, P < 0.001 and t = - 2.187, P = 0.029 for temperature and rainfall respectively), and consumption of barbecued food were strongly associated with weather, (t = 3.219, P = 0.002 and t = 2.015, P = 0.045 for weekly average temperature and average maximum temperature respectively) and also rain (t = 2.254, P = 0.02527). This suggests that the effect of weather was indirect, acting through changes in risk behaviour. The seasonal pattern of cases predicted by the IB model was significantly related to observed patterns (r = 0.72, P < 0.001) indicating that simulating risk behaviour could produce the observed seasonal patterns of cases. A vaccination strategy providing short-term immunity was more effective than educational interventions to modify human risk behaviour. Extending immunity to 1 year from 20 days reduced disease burden by an order of magnitude (from 2412-2414 to 203-309 cases per 50,000 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first interdisciplinary study to integrate environment, risk behaviour, socio-demographics and immunology to model Campylobacter infection, including pathways to mitigation. We conclude that vaccination is likely to be the best route for intervening against campylobacteriosis despite the technical problems associated with understanding both the underlying human immunology and genetic variation in the pathogen, and the likely cost of vaccine development.

The discovery of new deep-sea hydrothermal vent communities in the southern ocean and implications for biogeography.

Since the first discovery of deep-sea hydrothermal vents along the Galápagos Rift in 1977, numerous vent sites and endemic faunal assemblages have been found along mid-ocean ridges and back-arc basins at low to mid latitudes. These discoveries have suggested the existence of separate biogeographic provinces in the Atlantic and the North West Pacific, the existence of a province including the South West Pacific and Indian Ocean, and a separation of the North East Pacific, North East Pacific Rise, and South East Pacific Rise. The Southern Ocean is known to be a region of high deep-sea species diversity and centre of origin for the global deep-sea fauna. It has also been proposed as a gateway connecting hydrothermal vents in different oceans but is little explored because of extreme conditions. Since 2009 we have explored two segments of the East Scotia Ridge (ESR) in the Southern Ocean using a remotely operated vehicle. In each segment we located deep-sea hydrothermal vents hosting high-temperature black smokers up to 382.8°C and diffuse venting. The chemosynthetic ecosystems hosted by these vents are dominated by a new yeti crab (Kiwa n. sp.), stalked barnacles, limpets, peltospiroid gastropods, anemones, and a predatory sea star. Taxa abundant in vent ecosystems in other oceans, including polychaete worms (Siboglinidae), bathymodiolid mussels, and alvinocaridid shrimps, are absent from the ESR vents. These groups, except the Siboglinidae, possess planktotrophic larvae, rare in Antarctic marine invertebrates, suggesting that the environmental conditions of the Southern Ocean may act as a dispersal filter for vent taxa. Evidence from the distinctive fauna, the unique community structure, and multivariate analyses suggest that the Antarctic vent ecosystems represent a new vent biogeographic province. However, multivariate analyses of species present at the ESR and at other deep-sea hydrothermal vents globally indicate that vent biogeography is more complex than previously recognised.

Eurythenes atacamensis sp. nov. (Crustacea: Amphipoda) exhibits ontogenetic vertical stratification across abyssal and hadal depths in the Atacama Trench, eastern South Pacific Ocean.

Eurythenes S.I. Smith in Scudder, 1882 (Crustacea: Amphipoda) are prevalent scavengers of the benthopelagic community from bathyal to hadal depths. While a well-studied genus, molecular systematic studies have uncovered cryptic speciation and multiple undescribed lineages. Here, we apply an integrative taxonomic approach and describe the tenth species, Eurythenes atacamensis sp. nov., based on specimens from the 2018 Atacamex and RV Sonne SO261 Expeditions to the southern sector of the Peru-Chile Trench, the Atacama Trench (24-⁠21°S). Eurythenes atacamensis sp. nov. is a large species, max. observed length 83.2 mm, possesses diagnostic features, including a short gnathopod 1 palm and a chelate gnathopod 2 palm, and a distinct genetic lineage based on a 16S rRNA and COI phylogeny. This species is a dominant bait-attending fauna with an extensive bathymetric range, spanning from 4974 to 8081 m. The RV Sonne SO261 specimens were recovered along a 10-station transect from abyssal to hadal depths and further examined for demographic and bathymetric-related patterns. Ontogenetic vertical stratification was evident across the trench axis, with only juveniles present at abyssal depths (4974-6025 m). Total length-depth analysis revealed that the size of females was unrelated to depth, whereas juveniles followed a sigmoidal relationship with a step-up in size at depths >7200 m. Thus, these bathymetric trends suggest that juveniles and females employ differing ecological strategies in subduction trench environments. This study highlights that even dominant and ecologically important species are still being discovered within the abyssal and hadal environments. Continued systematic expeditions will lead to an improved understanding of the eco-evolutionary drivers of speciation in the world's largest ecosystem.

New species of Eurythenes from hadal depths of the Mariana Trench, Pacific Ocean (Crustacea: Amphipoda).

Eurythenes S. I. Smith in Scudder, 1882 are one of the largest scavenging deep-sea amphipods (max. 154 mm) and are found in every ocean across an extensive bathymetric range from the shallow polar waters to hadal depths. Recent systematic studies of the genus have illuminated a cryptic species complex and highlighted the benefits of using a combination of morphological and molecular identification approaches. In this study, we present the ninth species, Eurythenes plasticus sp. nov., which was recovered using baited traps between the depths 6010 and 6949 m in the Mariana Trench (Northwest Pacific Ocean) in 2014. This new Eurythenes species was found to have distinct morphological characteristics and be a well-supported clade based on sequence variation at two mitochondrial regions (16S rDNA and COI). While this species is new to science and lives in the remote hadal zone, it is not exempt from the impacts of anthropogenic pollution. Indeed, one individual was found to have a microplastic fibre, 83.74% similar to polyethylene terephthalate (PET), in its hindgut. As this species has a bathymetric range spanning from abyssal to hadal depths in the Central Pacific Ocean basin, it offers further insights into the biogeography of Eurythenes.

Transmission routes of rare seasonal diseases: the case of norovirus infections.

Norovirus (NoV) is the most commonly recognized cause of acute gastroenteritis, with over a million cases globally per year. While usually self-limiting, NoV poses a substantial economic burden because it is highly contagious and there are multiple transmission routes. Infection occurs through inhalation of vomitus; faecal-oral spread; and food, water and environmental contamination. While the incidence of the disease is predictably seasonal, much less is known about the relative contribution of the various exposure pathways in causing disease. Additionally, asymptomatic excretion and viral shedding make forecasting disease burden difficult. We develop a novel stochastic dynamic network model to investigate the contributions of different transmission pathways in multiple coupled social networks representing schools, hospitals, care-homes and family households in a community setting. We analyse how the networks impact on transmission. We used ward-level demographic data from Northumberland, UK to create a simulation cohort. We compared the results with extant data on NoV cases from the IID2 study. Connectivity across the simulated cohort was high. Cases of NoV showed marked seasonality, peaking in early winter and declining through the summer. For the first time, we show that fomites and food appear to be the most important exposure routes in determining the population burden of disease. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Fauna of the Kemp Caldera and its upper bathyal hydrothermal vents (South Sandwich Arc, Antarctica).

Faunal assemblages at hydrothermal vents associated with island-arc volcanism are less well known than those at vents on mid-ocean ridges and back-arc spreading centres. This study characterizes chemosynthetic biotopes at active hydrothermal vents discovered at the Kemp Caldera in the South Sandwich Arc. The caldera hosts sulfur and anhydrite vent chimneys in 1375-1487 m depth, which emit sulfide-rich fluids with temperatures up to 212°C, and the microbial community of water samples in the buoyant plume rising from the vents was dominated by sulfur-oxidizing Gammaproteobacteria. A total of 12 macro- and megafaunal taxa depending on hydrothermal activity were collected in these biotopes, of which seven species were known from the East Scotia Ridge (ESR) vents and three species from vents outside the Southern Ocean. Faunal assemblages were dominated by large vesicomyid clams, actinostolid anemones, Sericosura sea spiders and lepetodrilid and cocculinid limpets, but several taxa abundant at nearby ESR hydrothermal vents were rare such as the stalked barnacle Neolepas scotiaensis. Multivariate analysis of fauna at Kemp Caldera and vents in neighbouring areas indicated that the Kemp Caldera is most similar to vent fields in the previously established Southern Ocean vent biogeographic province, showing that the species composition at island-arc hydrothermal vents can be distinct from nearby seafloor-spreading systems. δ 13C and δ 15N isotope values of megafaunal species analysed from the Kemp Caldera were similar to those of the same or related species at other vent fields, but none of the fauna sampled at Kemp Caldera had δ 13C values, indicating nutritional dependence on Epsilonproteobacteria, unlike fauna at other island-arc hydrothermal vents.

Oropharyngeal Microbiota in Frail Older Patients Unaffected by Time in Hospital.

Respiratory tract infections are the commonest nosocomial infections, and occur predominantly in frailer, older patients with multiple comorbidities. The oropharyngeal microbiota is the major reservoir of infection. This study explored the relative contributions of time in hospital and patient demographics to the community structure of the oropharyngeal microbiota in older patients with lower limb fracture. We collected 167 throat swabs from 53 patients (mean age 83) over 14 days after hospitalization, and analyzed these using 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We calculated frailty/comorbidity indices, undertook dental examinations and collected data on respiratory tract infections. We analyzed microbial community composition using correspondence (CA) and canonical correspondence analysis. Ten patients were treated for respiratory tract infection. Microbial community structure was related to frailty, number of teeth and comorbidity on admission, with comorbidity exerting the largest effect. Time in hospital neither significantly changed alpha (t = -0.910, p = 0.365) nor beta diversity (CA1 t = 0.022, p = 0.982; CA2 t = -0.513, p = 0.609) of microbial communities in patient samples. Incidence of respiratory pathogens were not associated with time in hospital (t = -0.207, p = 0.837), nor with alpha diversity of the oral microbiota (t = -1.599, p = 0.113). Patient characteristics at admission, rather than time in hospital, influenced the community structure of the oral microbiota.

Fifty important research questions in microbial ecology.

Microbial ecology provides insights into the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of microbial communities underpinning every ecosystem on Earth. Microbial communities can now be investigated in unprecedented detail, although there is still a wealth of open questions to be tackled. Here we identify 50 research questions of fundamental importance to the science or application of microbial ecology, with the intention of summarising the field and bringing focus to new research avenues. Questions are categorised into seven themes: host-microbiome interactions; health and infectious diseases; human health and food security; microbial ecology in a changing world; environmental processes; functional diversity; and evolutionary processes. Many questions recognise that microbes provide an extraordinary array of functional diversity that can be harnessed to solve real-world problems. Our limited knowledge of spatial and temporal variation in microbial diversity and function is also reflected, as is the need to integrate micro- and macro-ecological concepts, and knowledge derived from studies with humans and other diverse organisms. Although not exhaustive, the questions presented are intended to stimulate discussion and provide focus for researchers, funders and policy makers, informing the future research agenda in microbial ecology.

Geochemistry, faunal composition and trophic structure in reducing sediments on the southwest South Georgia margin.

Despite a number of studies in areas of focused methane seepage, the extent of transitional sediments of more diffuse methane seepage, and their influence upon biological communities is poorly understood. We investigated an area of reducing sediments with elevated levels of methane on the South Georgia margin around 250 m depth and report data from a series of geochemical and biological analyses. Here, the geochemical signatures were consistent with weak methane seepage and the role of sub-surface methane consumption was clearly very important, preventing gas emissions into bottom waters. As a result, the contribution of methane-derived carbon to the microbial and metazoan food webs was very limited, although sulfur isotopic signatures indicated a wider range of dietary contributions than was apparent from carbon isotope ratios. Macrofaunal assemblages had high dominance and were indicative of reducing sediments, with many taxa common to other similar environments and no seep-endemic fauna, indicating transitional assemblages. Also similar to other cold seep areas, there were samples of authigenic carbonate, but rather than occurring as pavements or sedimentary concretions, these carbonates were restricted to patches on the shells of Axinulus antarcticus (Bivalvia, Thyasiridae), which is suggestive of microbe-metazoan interactions.

Cytokine responses in birds challenged with the human food-borne pathogen Campylobacter jejuni implies a Th17 response.

Development of process orientated understanding of cytokine interactions within the gastrointestinal tract during an immune response to pathogens requires experimentation and statistical modelling. The immune response against pathogen challenge depends on the specific threat to the host. Here, we show that broiler chickens mount a breed-dependent immune response to Campylobacter jejuni infection in the caeca by analysing experimental data using frequentist and Bayesian structural equation models (SEM). SEM provides a framework by which cytokine interdependencies, based on prior knowledge, can be tested. In both breeds important cytokines including pro-inflammatory interleukin (IL)-1ß, , IL-4, IL-17A, interferon (IFN)-γ and anti-inflammatory IL-10 and transforming growth factor (TGF)-ß4 were expressed post-challenge. The SEM revealed a putative regulatory pathway illustrating a T helper (Th)17 response and regulation of IL-10, which is breed-dependent. The prominence of the Th17 pathway indicates the cytokine response aims to limit the invasion or colonization of an extracellular bacterial pathogen but the time-dependent nature of the response differs between breeds.

Linking regional variation of epibiotic bacterial diversity and trophic ecology in a new species of Kiwaidae (Decapoda, Anomura) from East Scotia Ridge (Antarctica) hydrothermal vents.

We analyzed the diversity of bacterial epibionts and trophic ecology of a new species of Kiwa yeti crab discovered at two hydrothermal vent fields (E2 and E9) on the East Scotia Ridge (ESR) in the Southern Ocean using a combination of 454 pyrosequencing, Sanger sequencing, and stable isotope analysis. The Kiwa epibiont communities were dominated by Epsilon- and Gammaproteobacteria. About 454 sequencing of the epibionts on 15 individual Kiwa specimen revealed large regional differences between the two hydrothermal vent fields: at E2, the bacterial community on the Kiwa ventral setae was dominated (up to 75%) by Gammaproteobacteria, whereas at E9 Epsilonproteobacteria dominated (up to 98%). Carbon stable isotope analysis of both Kiwa and the bacterial epibionts also showed distinct differences between E2 and E9 in mean and variability. Both stable isotope and sequence data suggest a dominance of different carbon fixation pathways of the epibiont communities at the two vent fields. At E2, epibionts were putatively fixing carbon via the Calvin-Benson-Bassham and reverse tricarboxylic acid cycle, while at E9 the reverse tricarboxylic acid cycle dominated. Co-varying epibiont diversity and isotope values at E2 and E9 also present further support for the hypothesis that epibionts serve as a food source for Kiwa.

Spatial differences in East scotia ridge hydrothermal vent food webs: influences of chemistry, microbiology and predation on trophodynamics.

The hydrothermal vents on the East Scotia Ridge are the first to be explored in the Antarctic and are dominated by large peltospiroid gastropods, stalked barnacles (Vulcanolepas sp.) and anomuran crabs (Kiwa sp.) but their food webs are unknown. Vent fluid and macroconsumer samples were collected at three vent sites (E2, E9N and E9S) at distances of tens of metres to hundreds of kilometres apart with contrasting vent fluid chemistries to describe trophic interactions and identify potential carbon fixation pathways using stable isotopes. δ(13)C of dissolved inorganic carbon from vent fluids ranged from -4.6‰ to 0.8‰ at E2 and from -4.4‰ to 1.5‰ at E9. The lowest macroconsumer δ(13)C was observed in peltospiroid gastropods (-30.0‰ to -31.1‰) and indicated carbon fixation via the Calvin-Benson-Bassham (CBB) cycle by endosymbiotic gamma-Proteobacteria. Highest δ(13)C occurred in Kiwa sp. (-19.0‰ to -10.5‰), similar to that of the epibionts sampled from their ventral setae. Kiwa sp. δ(13)C differed among sites, which were attributed to spatial differences in the epibiont community and the relative contribution of carbon fixed via the reductive tricarboxylic acid (rTCA) and CBB cycles assimilated by Kiwa sp. Site differences in carbon fixation pathways were traced into higher trophic levels e.g. a stichasterid asteroid that predates on Kiwa sp. Sponges and anemones at the periphery of E2 assimilated a proportion of epipelagic photosynthetic primary production but this was not observed at E9N. Differences in the δ(13)C and δ(34)S values of vent macroconsumers between E2 and E9 sites suggest the relative contributions of photosynthetic and chemoautotrophic carbon fixation (rTCA v CBB) entering the hydrothermal vent food webs vary between the sites.

Microdistribution of faunal assemblages at deep-sea hydrothermal vents in the Southern Ocean.

Chemosynthetic primary production by microbes supports abundant faunal assemblages at deep-sea hydrothermal vents, with zonation of invertebrate species typically occurring along physico-chemical gradients. Recently discovered vent fields on the East Scotia Ridge (ESR) in the Southern Ocean represent a new province of vent biogeography, but the spatial dynamics of their distinct fauna have yet to be elucidated. This study determines patterns of faunal zonation, species associations, and relationships between faunal microdistribution and hydrothermal activity in a vent field at a depth of 2,400 m on the ESR. Remotely operated vehicle (ROV) dives obtained high-definition imagery of three chimney structures with varying levels of hydrothermal activity, and a mosaic image of >250 m(2) of seafloor co-registered with temperature measurements. Analysis of faunal microdistribution within the mosaiced seafloor reveals a consistent pattern of faunal zonation with increasing distance from vent sources and peak temperatures. Assemblages closest to vent sources are visibly dominated by a new species of anomuran crab, Kiwa n. sp. (abundance >700 individuals m(-2)), followed by a peltospiroid gastropod (>1,500 individuals m(-2)), eolepadid barnacle (>1,500 individuals m(-2)), and carnivorous actinostolid anemone (>30 individuals m(-2)). Peripheral fauna are not dominated by a single taxon, but include predatory and scavenger taxa such as stichasterid seastars, pycnogonids and octopus. Variation in faunal microdistribution on chimneys with differing levels of activity suggests a possible successional sequence for vent fauna in this new biogeographic province. An increase in δ(34)S values of primary consumers with distance from vent sources, and variation in their δ(13)C values also indicate possible zonation of nutritional modes of the vent fauna. By using ROV videography to obtain a high-resolution representation of a vent environment over a greater extent than previous studies, these results provide a baseline for determining temporal change and investigations of processes structuring faunal assemblages at Southern Ocean vents.