Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations.

In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide-angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by exploiting this capability, instead of relying on coronagraph observations only, it is possible to improve today's CME arrival time predictions. The ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes that the CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane is an ellipse and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed; that is, it is drag based. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different setups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well-defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between 6.2 ± 7.9 and 9.9 ± 13 hr depending on the model setup used. ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 or L1. It can also be used with near-real-time STEREO-A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next ∼7 years when STEREO-A is observing the Sun-Earth space.

Tug-of-war lacunarity-A novel approach for estimating lacunarity.

Modern instrumentation provides us with massive repositories of digital images that will likely only increase in the future. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to automatize the analysis of digital images, e.g., with methods from pattern recognition. These methods aim to quantify the visual appearance of captured textures with quantitative measures. As such, lacunarity is a useful multi-scale measure of texture's heterogeneity but demands high computational efforts. Here we investigate a novel approach based on the tug-of-war algorithm, which estimates lacunarity in a single pass over the image. We computed lacunarity for theoretical and real world sample images, and found that the investigated approach is able to estimate lacunarity with low uncertainties. We conclude that the proposed method combines low computational efforts with high accuracy, and that its application may have utility in the analysis of high-resolution images.

Is a two-dimensional generalization of the Higuchi algorithm really necessary?

Fractal dimensions of data series, particularly time series can be estimated very well by using Higuchi's algorithm. Without phase space constructions, the fractal dimension of a one-dimensional data stream is calculated. Higuchi's method is well accepted and widely applied, because it is very reliable and easy to implement. A generalization of the genuine 1D algorithm to two dimensions would be desirable in order to investigate digital images. In this study, we propose several 2D generalization algorithms and evaluate differences between them. Additionally, a comparison to previously published pseudo 2D generalizations, and to the Fourier and the Blanket method are presented. The algorithms were tested on artificially generated grey value and red-green-blue colour images. It turned out that the proposed 2D generalized Higuchi algorithms are very robust, but differences in between the generalizations as well as differences to the pseudo 2D algorithms are astonishingly small.

ComsystanJ: A collection of Fiji/ImageJ2 plugins for nonlinear and complexity analysis in 1D, 2D and 3D.

Complex systems such as the global climate, biological organisms, civilisation, technical or social networks exhibit diverse behaviours at various temporal and spatial scales, often characterized by nonlinearity, feedback loops, and emergence. These systems can be characterized by physical quantities such as entropy, information, chaoticity or fractality rather than classical quantities such as time, velocity, energy or temperature. The drawback of these complexity quantities is that their definitions are not always mathematically exact and computational algorithms provide estimates rather than exact values. Typically, evaluations can be cumbersome, necessitating specialized tools. We are therefore introducing ComsystanJ, a novel and user-friendly software suite, providing a comprehensive set of plugins for complex systems analysis, without the need for prior programming knowledge. It is platform independent, end-user friendly and extensible. ComsystanJ combines already known algorithms and newer methods for generalizable analysis of 1D signals, 2D images and 3D volume data including the generation of data sets such as signals and images for testing purposes. It is based on the framework of the open-source image processing software Fiji and ImageJ2. ComsystanJ plugins are macro recordable and are maintained as open-source software. ComsystanJ includes effective surrogate analysis in all dimensions to validate the features calculated by the different algorithms. Future enhancements of the project will include the implementation of parallel computing for image stacks and volumes and the integration of artificial intelligence methods to improve feature recognition and parameter calculation.

Strong coronal channelling and interplanetary evolution of a solar storm up to Earth and Mars.

The severe geomagnetic effects of solar storms or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are to a large degree determined by their propagation direction with respect to Earth. There is a lack of understanding of the processes that determine their non-radial propagation. Here we present a synthesis of data from seven different space missions of a fast CME, which originated in an active region near the disk centre and, hence, a significant geomagnetic impact was forecasted. However, the CME is demonstrated to be channelled during eruption into a direction +37±10° (longitude) away from its source region, leading only to minimal geomagnetic effects. In situ observations near Earth and Mars confirm the channelled CME motion, and are consistent with an ellipse shape of the CME-driven shock provided by the new Ellipse Evolution model, presented here. The results enhance our understanding of CME propagation and shape, which can help to improve space weather forecasts.