Global collision-risk hotspots of marine traffic and the world's largest fish, the whale shark.

Marine traffic is increasing globally yet collisions with endangered megafauna such as whales, sea turtles, and planktivorous sharks go largely undetected or unreported. Collisions leading to mortality can have population-level consequences for endangered species. Hence, identifying simultaneous space use of megafauna and shipping throughout ranges may reveal as-yet-unknown spatial targets requiring conservation. However, global studies tracking megafauna and shipping occurrences are lacking. Here we combine satellite-tracked movements of the whale shark, Rhincodon typus, and vessel activity to show that 92% of sharks' horizontal space use and nearly 50% of vertical space use overlap with persistent large vessel (>300 gross tons) traffic. Collision-risk estimates correlated with reported whale shark mortality from ship strikes, indicating higher mortality in areas with greatest overlap. Hotspots of potential collision risk were evident in all major oceans, predominantly from overlap with cargo and tanker vessels, and were concentrated in gulf regions, where dense traffic co-occurred with seasonal shark movements. Nearly a third of whale shark hotspots overlapped with the highest collision-risk areas, with the last known locations of tracked sharks coinciding with busier shipping routes more often than expected. Depth-recording tags provided evidence for sinking, likely dead, whale sharks, suggesting substantial "cryptic" lethal ship strikes are possible, which could explain why whale shark population declines continue despite international protection and low fishing-induced mortality. Mitigation measures to reduce ship-strike risk should be considered to conserve this species and other ocean giants that are likely experiencing similar impacts from growing global vessel traffic.

Global warming is causing a more pronounced dip in marine species richness around the equator.

The latitudinal gradient in species richness, with more species in the tropics and richness declining with latitude, is widely known and has been assumed to be stable over recent centuries. We analyzed data on 48,661 marine animal species since 1955, accounting for sampling variation, to assess whether the global latitudinal gradient in species richness is being impacted by climate change. We confirm recent studies that show a slight dip in species richness at the equator. Moreover, richness across latitudinal bands was sensitive to temperature, reaching a plateau or declining above a mean annual sea surface temperature of 20 °C for most taxa. In response, since the 1970s, species richness has declined at the equator relative to an increase at midlatitudes and has shifted north in the northern hemisphere, particularly among pelagic species. This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that climate change is impacting the latitudinal gradient in marine biodiversity at a global scale. The intensification of the dip in species richness at the equator, especially for pelagic species, suggests that it is already too warm there for some species to survive.

Cost-benefit analysis of ecosystem modeling to support fisheries management.

Mathematical and statistical models underlie many of the world's most important fisheries management decisions. Since the 19th century, difficulty calibrating and fitting such models has been used to justify the selection of simple, stationary, single-species models to aid tactical fisheries management decisions. Whereas these justifications are reasonable, it is imperative that we quantify the value of different levels of model complexity for supporting fisheries management, especially given a changing climate, where old methodologies may no longer perform as well as in the past. Here we argue that cost-benefit analysis is an ideal lens to assess the value of model complexity in fisheries management. While some studies have reported the benefits of model complexity in fisheries, modeling costs are rarely considered. In the absence of cost data in the literature, we report, as a starting point, relative costs of single-species stock assessment and marine ecosystem models from two Australian organizations. We found that costs varied by two orders of magnitude, and that ecosystem model costs increased with model complexity. Using these costs, we walk through a hypothetical example of cost-benefit analysis. The demonstration is intended to catalyze the reporting of modeling costs and benefits.

A metric-based framework for climate-smart conservation planning.

Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate change adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area-based management tools used to conserve biodiversity, such as protected areas. One main obstacle is the lack of consensus regarding how impacts of climate change can be included in spatial conservation plans. We propose a climate-smart framework that prioritizes the protection of climate refugia-areas of low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention-using climate metrics. We explore four aspects of climate-smart conservation planning: (1) climate model ensembles; (2) multiple emission scenarios; (3) climate metrics; and (4) approaches to identifying climate refugia. We illustrate this framework in the Western Pacific Ocean, but it is equally applicable to terrestrial systems. We found that all aspects of climate-smart conservation planning considered affected the configuration of spatial plans. The choice of climate metrics and approaches to identifying refugia have large effects in the resulting climate-smart spatial plans, whereas the choice of climate models and emission scenarios have smaller effects. As the configuration of spatial plans depended on climate metrics used, a spatial plan based on a single measure of climate change (e.g., warming) will not necessarily be robust against other measures of climate change (e.g., ocean acidification). We therefore recommend using climate metrics most relevant for the biodiversity and region considered based on a single or multiple climate drivers. To include the uncertainty associated with different climate futures, we recommend using multiple climate models (i.e., an ensemble) and emission scenarios. Finally, we show that the approaches we used to identify climate refugia feature trade-offs between: (1) the degree to which they are climate-smart, and (2) their efficiency in meeting conservation targets. Hence, the choice of approach will depend on the relative value that stakeholders place on climate adaptation. By using this framework, protected areas can be designed with improved longevity and thus safeguard biodiversity against current and future climate change. We hope that the proposed climate-smart framework helps transition conservation planning toward climate-smart approaches.

Improving the biological realism of predator-prey size relationships in food web models alters ecosystem dynamics.

Body-size relationships between predators and prey exhibit remarkable diversity. However, the assumption that predators typically consume proportionally smaller prey often underlies size-dependent predation in ecosystem models. In reality, some animals can consume larger prey or exhibit limited changes in prey size as they grow larger themselves. These distinct predator-prey size relationships challenge the conventional assumptions of traditional size-based models. Cephalopods, with their diverse feeding behaviours and life histories, offer an excellent case study to investigate the impact of greater biological realism in predator-prey size relationships on energy flow within a size-structured ecosystem model. By categorizing cephalopods into high and low-activity groups, in line with empirically derived, distinct predator-prey size relationships, we found that incorporating greater biological realism in size-based feeding reduced ecosystem biomass and production, while simultaneously increasing biomass stability and turnover. Our results have broad implications for ecosystem modelling, since distinct predator-prey size relationships extend beyond cephalopods, encompassing a wide array of major taxonomic groups from filter-feeding fishes to baleen whales. Incorporating a diversity of size-based feeding in food web models can enhance their ecological and predictive accuracy when studying ecosystem dynamics.

Marine environmental DNA biomonitoring reveals seasonal patterns in biodiversity and identifies ecosystem responses to anomalous climatic events.

Marine ecosystems are changing rapidly as the oceans warm and become more acidic. The physical factors and the changes to ocean chemistry that they drive can all be measured with great precision. Changes in the biological composition of communities in different ocean regions are far more challenging to measure because most biological monitoring methods focus on a limited taxonomic or size range. Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis has the potential to solve this problem in biological oceanography, as it is capable of identifying a huge phylogenetic range of organisms to species level. Here we develop and apply a novel multi-gene molecular toolkit to eDNA isolated from bulk plankton samples collected over a five-year period from a single site. This temporal scale and level of detail is unprecedented in eDNA studies. We identified consistent seasonal assemblages of zooplankton species, which demonstrates the ability of our toolkit to audit community composition. We were also able to detect clear departures from the regular seasonal patterns that occurred during an extreme marine heatwave. The integration of eDNA analyses with existing biotic and abiotic surveys delivers a powerful new long-term approach to monitoring the health of our world's oceans in the context of a rapidly changing climate.

Flexibility for fuelling reproduction in a pelagic ray (Mobula eregoodoo) suggested by bioenergetic modelling.

This study investigated the measurements of energy density and bioenergetic modelling for a pelagic ray, Mobula eregoodoo, to estimate its relative allocation to various bodily processes and especially reproduction. The data revealed M. eregoodoo uses up to 21.0% and 2.5% of its annual energy budget on growth and reproduction, respectively. During pregnancy, females depleted energy reserves in the liver, which, along with their biennial reproductive cycle, aligns with general theory that ectotherms are capital breeders and thus build energy reserves before reproduction. Nonetheless, the reduction in energy reserves did not account for all reproductive costs, and therefore, gravid females supplement reproductive costs through energy derived from the diet, according to an income-breeding strategy. These characteristics imply that M. eregoodoo exhibits some flexibility in fuelling reproduction depending on energy availability throughout the reproductive cycle, which may be prevalent in other elasmobranchs. The data represent the first estimates of both the metabolic costs of gestation in elasmobranchs and the relative cost of reproduction in rays. Energy costs and plasticity associated with highly variable reproductive strategies in elasmobranchs may influence long-term population viability under a rapidly changing environment.

Movement ecology of black marlin Istiompax indica in the Western Indian Ocean.

The black marlin Istiompax indica is an apex marine predator and is susceptible to overfishing. The movement ecology of the species remains poorly known, particularly within the Indian Ocean, which has hampered assessment of their conservation status and fisheries management requirements. Here, we used pop-up archival satellite tags to track I. indica movement and examine their dispersal. Forty-nine tags were deployed off Kenya during both the north-east (November-April) and south-west (August-September) monsoon seasons, providing locations from every month of the year. Individual I. indica were highly mobile and track distance correlated with the duration of tag attachment. Mean track duration was 38 days and mean track distance was >1800 km. Individuals dispersed in several directions: north-east into Somalian waters and up to northern Oman, east towards the Seychelles, and south into the Mozambique Channel. Their core habitat shifted seasonally and overlapped with areas of high productivity off Kenya, Somalia and Oman during the first half of the year. A second annual aggregation off the Kenyan coast, during August and September, did not coincide with high chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentrations or thermal fronts, and the drivers of the species' presence and movement from this second aggregation was unclear. We tested their habitat preferences by comparing environmental conditions at track locations to the conditions at locations along simulated tracks based on the empirical data. Observed I. indica preferred cooler water with higher chl-a concentrations and stayed closer to the coast than simulated tracks. The rapid and extensive dispersal of I. indica from Kenya suggests that there is likely a single stock in the Western Indian Ocean, with individuals swimming between areas of high commercial catches off northern Somalia and Oman, and artisanal and recreational fisheries catches throughout East Africa and Mozambique.

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

The geographic distribution of reef and oceanic manta rays (Mobula alfredi and Mobula birostris) in Australian coastal waters.

The known distribution of manta rays in Australian waters is patchy, with records primarily centred around tourism hotspots. We collated 11,614 records of Mobula alfredi from photo-ID databases (n = 10,715), aerial surveys (n = 378) and online reports (n = 521). The study confirms an uninterrupted coastal distribution from north of 26°S and 31°S on the west and east coasts, respectively. More southerly M. alfredi records relate to warm-water events with a southernmost extent at 34°S. Coastal sightings of Mobula birostris were rare (n = 32), likely reflecting a preference for offshore waters, but encompass a wider latitudinal extent than M. alfredi of 10-40°S.

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change.

Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.

Porcine Small and Large Intestinal Microbiota Rapidly Hydrolyze the Masked Mycotoxin Deoxynivalenol-3-Glucoside and Release Deoxynivalenol in Spiked Batch Cultures In Vitro.

Mycotoxin contamination of cereal grains causes well-recognized toxicities in animals and humans, but the fate of plant-bound masked mycotoxins in the gut is less well understood. Masked mycotoxins have been found to be stable under conditions prevailing in the small intestine but are rapidly hydrolyzed by fecal microbiota. This study aims to assess the hydrolysis of the masked mycotoxin deoxynivalenol-3-glucoside (DON3Glc) by the microbiota of different regions of the porcine intestinal tract. Intestinal digesta samples were collected from the jejunum, ileum, cecum, colon, and feces of 5 pigs and immediately frozen under anaerobic conditions. Sample slurries were prepared in M2 culture medium, spiked with DON3Glc or free deoxynivalenol (DON; 2 nmol/ml), and incubated anaerobically for up to 72 h. Mycotoxin concentrations were determined using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, and the microbiota composition was determined using a quantitative PCR methodology. The jejunal microbiota hydrolyzed DON3Glc very slowly, while samples from the ileum, cecum, colon, and feces rapidly and efficiently hydrolyzed DON3Glc. No further metabolism of DON was observed in any sample. The microbial load and microbiota composition in the ileum were significantly different from those in the distal intestinal regions, whereas those in the cecum, colon and feces did not differ.IMPORTANCE Results from this study clearly demonstrate that the masked mycotoxin DON3Glc is hydrolyzed efficiently in the distal small intestine and large intestine of pigs. Once DON is released, toxicity and absorption in the distal intestinal tract likely occur in vivo This study further supports the need to include masked metabolites in mycotoxin risk assessments and regulatory actions for feed and food.

Efficiently enforcing artisanal fisheries to protect estuarine biodiversity.

Artisanal fisheries support millions of livelihoods worldwide, yet ineffective enforcement can allow for continued environmental degradation due to overexploitation. Here, we use spatial planning to design an enforcement strategy for a pre-existing spatial closure for artisanal fisheries considering climate variability, existing seasonal fishing closures, representative conservation targets and enforcement costs. We calculated enforcement cost in three ways, based on different assumptions about who could be responsible for monitoring the fishery. We applied this approach in the Patos Lagoon estuary (Brazil), where we found three important results. First, spatial priorities for enforcement were similar under different climate scenarios. Second, we found that the cost and percentage of area enforced varied among scenarios tested by the conservation planning analysis, with only a modest increase in budget needed to incorporate climate variability. Third, we found that spatial priorities for enforcement depend on whether enforcement is carried out by a central authority or by the community itself. Here, we demonstrated a method that can be used to efficiently design enforcement plans, resulting in the conservation of biodiversity and estuarine resources. Also, cost of enforcement can be potentially reduced when fishers are empowered to enforce management within their fishing grounds.

Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change.

Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes.

Aspergillus Sydowii Marine Fungal Bloom in Australian Coastal Waters, Its Metabolites and Potential Impact on Symbiodinium Dinoflagellates.

Dust has been widely recognised as an important source of nutrients in the marine environment and as a vector for transporting pathogenic microorganisms. Disturbingly, in the wake of a dust storm event along the eastern Australian coast line in 2009, the Continuous Plankton Recorder collected masses of fungal spores and mycelia (~150,000 spores/m³) forming a floating raft that covered a coastal area equivalent to 25 times the surface of England. Cultured A. sydowii strains exhibited varying metabolite profiles, but all produced sydonic acid, a chemotaxonomic marker for A. sydowii. The Australian marine fungal strains share major metabolites and display comparable metabolic diversity to Australian terrestrial strains and to strains pathogenic to Caribbean coral. Secondary colonisation of the rafts by other fungi, including strains of Cladosporium, Penicillium and other Aspergillus species with distinct secondary metabolite profiles, was also encountered. Our bioassays revealed that the dust-derived marine fungal extracts and known A. sydowii metabolites such as sydowic acid, sydowinol and sydowinin A adversely affect photophysiological performance (Fv/Fm) of the coral reef dinoflagellate endosymbiont Symbiodinium. Different Symbiodinium clades exhibited varying sensitivities, mimicking sensitivity to coral bleaching phenomena. The detection of such large amounts of A. sydowii following this dust storm event has potential implications for the health of coral environments such as the Great Barrier Reef.

Australian dust storm associated with extensive Aspergillus sydowii fungal "bloom" in coastal waters.

A massive central Australian dust storm in September 2009 was associated with abundant fungal spores (150,000/m(3)) and hyphae in coastal waters between Brisbane (27°S) and Sydney (34°S). These spores were successfully germinated from formalin-preserved samples, and using molecular sequencing of three different genes (the large subunit rRNA gene [LSU], internal transcribed spacer [ITS[, and beta-tubulin gene), they were conclusively identified as Aspergillus sydowii, an organism circumstantially associated with gorgonian coral fan disease in the Caribbean. Surprisingly, no human health or marine ecosystem impacts were associated with this Australian dust storm event. Australian fungal cultures were nontoxic to fish gills and caused a minor reduction in the motility of Alexandrium or Chattonella algal cultures but had their greatest impacts on Symbiodinium dinoflagellate coral symbiont motility, with hyphae being more detrimental than spores. While we have not yet seen any soft coral disease outbreaks on the Australian Great Barrier Reef similar to those observed in the Caribbean and while this particular fungal population was non- or weakly pathogenic, our observations raise the possibility of future marine ecosystem pathogen impacts from similar dust storms harboring more pathogenic strains.

From silk to satellite: half a century of ocean colour anomalies in the Northeast Atlantic.

Changes in phytoplankton dynamics influence marine biogeochemical cycles, climate processes, and food webs, with substantial social and economic consequences. Large-scale estimation of phytoplankton biomass was possible via ocean colour measurements from two remote sensing satellites - the Coastal Zone Colour Scanner (CZCS, 1979-1986) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS, 1998-2010). Due to the large gap between the two satellite eras and differences in sensor characteristics, comparison of the absolute values retrieved from the two instruments remains challenging. Using a unique in situ ocean colour dataset that spans more than half a century, the two satellite-derived chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) eras are linked to assess concurrent changes in phytoplankton variability and bloom timing over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and North Sea. Results from this unique re-analysis reflect a clear increasing pattern of Chl-a, a merging of the two seasonal phytoplankton blooms producing a longer growing season and higher seasonal biomass, since the mid-1980s. The broader climate plays a key role in Chl-a variability as the ocean colour anomalies parallel the oscillations of the Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) since 1948.

Evaluating ecological benefits of oceanic protected areas.

Oceans beyond the continental shelf represent the largest yet least protected environments. The new agreement to increase protection targets to 30% by 2030 and the recent United Nations (UN) High Seas Treaty try to address this gap, and an increase in the declaration of oceanic Marine Protected Areas (oMPAs) in waters beyond 200 m in depth is likely. Here we find that there is contradictory evidence concerning the benefits of oMPAs in terms of protecting pelagic habitats, providing refuge for highly mobile species, and potential fisheries benefits. We discover a mismatch between oMPA management objectives focusing on protection of pelagic habitats and biodiversity, and scientific research focusing on fisheries benefits. We suggest that the solution is to harness emerging technologies to monitor inside and outside oMPAs.

Spatial and life history variation in a trait-based species vulnerability and impact model.

Anthropogenic pressures threaten biodiversity, necessitating conservation actions founded on robust ecological models. However, prevailing models inadequately capture the spatiotemporal variation in environmental pressures faced by species with high mobility or complex life histories, as data are often aggregated across species' life histories or spatial distributions. We highlight the limitations of static models for dynamic species and incorporate life history variation and spatial distributions for species and stressors into a trait-based vulnerability and impact model. We use green sea turtles in the Greater Caribbean Region to demonstrate how vulnerability and anthropogenic impact for a dynamic species change across four life stages. By incorporating life stages into a trait-based vulnerability model, we observed life stage-specific vulnerabilities that were otherwise unnoticed when using an aggregated trait value set. Early life stages were more vulnerable to some stressors, such as inorganic pollution or marine heat waves, and less vulnerable to others, such as bycatch. Incorporating spatial distributions of stressors and life stages revealed impacts differ for each life stage across spatial areas, emphasizing the importance of stage-specific conservation measures. Our approach showcases the importance of incorporating dynamic processes into ecological models and will enable better and more targeted conservation actions for species with complex life histories and high mobility.