Farmers perceive diminishing ecosystem services, but overlook dis-services in intensively used agricultural landscapes in the North China Plain.

The UN sustainable development goals ask countries to advance sustainable production methods in agriculture. While the need for a transition to sustainable agricultural production is widely felt, there is little insight into local stakeholders' perceptions regarding agroecosystem (dis)services in areas with intensive production methods. The North China Plain is an agricultural production area with intensive production systems and simplified agricultural landscapes. We conducted a survey with 267 farmers in Quzhou county in the North China Plain in 2020 to measure the perceived level of agroecosystem (dis)services supply and the changes therein between 2015 and 2020. We analyzed which explanatory factors were associated with farmers' perceptions. Provisioning services were at a high level, while the regulating and supporting ecosystem services were considered to be in low supply, as evidenced by low scores for the presence of natural enemies and earthworms, and for natural habitats such as hedgerows and windbreaks. Most of the participants did not perceive dis-services from agriculture. Differences in perception between villages with contrasting biophysical and socio-economic conditions highlight the relevance of contextualized policy development for agricultural landscape composition and configuration to manage ecosystem (dis)services.

Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod.

There are concerns that increasing anthropogenic stressors can cause catastrophic transitions in ecosystems. Such shifts have large social, economic, and ecological consequences and therefore have important management implications. A potential mechanism behind these regime shifts is the Allee effect, which describes the decline in realized per capita growth rate at small population density. With an age-structured population model for Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, we illustrate how interactions between human-induced stressors, such as fishing and climate change, can worsen the impact of an Allee effect on populations by promoting hysteresis. Therefore, the risk of population collapse and recovery failure is exacerbated and the success of preventing and reverting collapse depends on the climate regime. We find that, in presence of the Allee effect, a fishing moratorium is only sufficient for recovery when sea surface temperature rise remains within 2°C and fishing is restricted within 10 yrs. If sea surface temperature rises beyond 2°C, even immediate banning of fishing is not sufficient to guarantee recovery. If fishing is not fully banned and a residual fishing pressure remains, the probability of recovery is further decreased, also in the absence of an Allee effect. The results underscore the decisive role of Allee effects for the management of depleted populations in an increasingly human-dominated world. Once the population collapses and its growth rate is suppressed, rebuilding measures will be squandered and collapse will very likely be irreversible. We therefore emphasize the need for proactive management involving precautionary, adaptive measures and reference points. Our studies shows that climate change has the potential to strengthen Allee effects, which could increasingly challenge fisheries management.

How constraints affect the hunter's decision to shoot a deer.

Hunting is the predominant way of controlling many wildlife populations devoid of large carnivores. It subjects animals to mortality rates that far exceed natural rates and that differ markedly in which age, sex, or size classes are removed relative to those of natural predators. To explain the emerging selection pattern we develop behavioral microfoundations for a hunting model, emphasizing in particular the constraints given by the formal and informal norms, rules, and regulations that govern the hunter's choice. We show how a shorter remaining season, competition among hunters, lower sighting probabilities, and higher costs all lead to lower reservation values, i.e., an increased likelihood of shooting a particular animal. Using a unique dataset on seen and shot deer from Norway, we test and confirm the theoretical predictions in a recreational and meat-motivated hunting system. To achieve sustainability, future wildlife management should account for this predictable selection pressure.

Economic repercussions of fisheries-induced evolution.

Fish stocks experiencing high fishing mortality show a tendency to mature earlier and at a smaller size, which may have a genetic component and therefore long-lasting economic and biological effects. To date, the economic effects of such ecoevolutionary dynamics have not been empirically investigated. Using 70 y of data, we develop a bioeconomic model for Northeast Arctic cod to compare the economic yield in a model in which life-history traits can vary only through phenotypic plasticity with a model in which, in addition, genetic changes can occur. We find that evolutionary changes toward faster growth and earlier maturation occur consistently even if a stock is optimally managed. However, if a stock is managed optimally, the evolutionary changes actually increase economic yield because faster growth and earlier maturation raise the stock's productivity. The optimal fishing mortality is almost identical for the evolutionary and nonevolutionary model and substantially lower than what it has been historically. Therefore, the costs of ignoring evolution under optimal management regimes are negligible. However, if fishing mortality is as high as it has been historically, evolutionary changes may result in economic losses, but only if the fishery is selecting for medium-sized individuals. Because evolution facilitates growth, the fish are younger and still immature when they are susceptible to getting caught, which outweighs the increase in productivity due to fish spawning at an earlier age.

A bio-economic analysis of harvest control rules for the Northeast Arctic cod fishery.

Harvest control rules (HCRs) have been implemented for many fisheries worldwide. However, in most instances, those HCRs are not based on the explicit feedbacks between stock properties and economic considerations. This paper develops a bio-economic model that evaluates the HCR adopted in 2004 by the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fishery Commission to manage the world's largest cod stock, Northeast Arctic cod (NEA). The model considered here is biologically and economically detailed, and is the first to compare the performance of the stock's current HCR with that of alternative HCRs derived with optimality criteria. In particular, HCRs are optimized for economic objectives including fleet profits, economic welfare, and total yield and the emerging properties are analyzed. The performance of these optimal HCRs was compared with the currently used HCR. This paper show that the current HCR does in fact comes very close to maximizing profits. Furthermore, the results reveal that the HCR that maximizes profits is the most precautionary one among the considered HCRs. Finally, the HCR that maximizes yield leads to un-precautionary low levels of biomass. In these ways, the implementation of the HCR for NEA cod can be viewed as a success story that may provide valuable lessons for other fisheries.

Behavioural economics in fisheries: A systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: The field of behavioural economics holds several opportunities for integrated fisheries management and conservation and can help researchers and managers alike understand fisher behaviour and decision-making. As the study of the cognitive biases that influence decision-making processes, behavioural economics differentiates itself from the classical field of economics in that it does not assume strictly rational behaviour of its agents, but rather looks for all mechanisms that influence behaviour. This field offers potential applications for fisheries management, for example in relation to behavioural change, but such applications require evidence of these mechanisms applied in a fisheries context. Thus, we have developed a systematic literature review protocol focusing on the primary question: "Which behavioural economics mechanisms influence fisher behaviour?" The aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of these different mechanisms and how they have been applied in the study of fisher behaviour. METHODS AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS: The review protocol was developed in close collaboration with the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Working Group on Maritime Systems (WGMARS). WGMARS members were therefore considered the key stakeholders for this study, and were consulted to develop a suitable systematic review question and methodology. Three academic databases will be searched using a customized Boolean keyword search string. Research articles deemed eligible for inclusion in the systematic review are those that studied the influence of behavioural-economics mechanisms on the behaviour of marine fishers in any location, and at any scale. Insights from this literature will be collated in order to provide an overview of the relevant behavioural-economics mechanisms and actions, how effective these mechanisms are and at what scale, geographic region and in which fisheries sector they have been applied. Any fisheries management implications identified by the studies under review will also be outlined. Finally, it will be recorded whether or not ethical considerations were made in the reviewed literature, so that in the discussion it will be possible to reflect on the ethics of conducting behavioural-economics research and policy actions in a fisheries context.