A machine learning approach to predict daptomycin exposure from two concentrations based on Monte Carlo simulations.

Daptomycin is a concentration-dependent lipopeptide antibiotic for which exposure/effect relationships have been shown. Machine learning (ML) algorithms, developed to predict the individual exposure to drugs, have shown very good performances in comparison to maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation (MAP-BE). The aim of this work was to predict the area under the blood concentration curve (AUC) of daptomycin from two samples and a few covariates using XGBoost ML algorithm trained on Monte Carlo simulations. Five thousand one hundred fifty patients were simulated from two literature population pharmacokinetics models. Data from the first model were split into a training set (75%) and a testing set (25%). Four ML algorithms were built to learn AUC based on daptomycin blood concentration samples at pre-dose and 1 h post-dose. The XGBoost model (best ML algorithm) with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) in a 10-fold cross-validation experiment was evaluated in both the test set and the simulations from the second population pharmacokinetic model (validation). The ML model based on the two concentrations, the differences between these concentrations, and five other covariates (sex, weight, daptomycin dose, creatinine clearance, and body temperature) yielded very good AUC estimation in the test (relative bias/RMSE = 0.43/7.69%) and validation sets (relative bias/RMSE = 4.61/6.63%). The XGBoost ML model developed allowed accurate estimation of daptomycin AUC using C0, C1h, and a few covariates and could be used for exposure estimation and dose adjustment. This ML approach can facilitate the conduct of future therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) studies.

A Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict the Starting Dose of Daptomycin.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The dosage of daptomycin is usually based on body weight. However, it has been shown that this approach yields too high an exposure in obese patients. Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic indexes (PK/PD) have been proposed for daptomycin's antibacterial effect (AUC/CMI >666) and toxicity (C0 > 24.3 mg/L). We previously developed machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict starting doses based on Monte Carlo simulations. We propose a new way to perform probability of target attainment based on an ML algorithm to predict the daptomycin starting dose. METHODS: The Dvorchik model of daptomycin was implemented in the mrgsolve R package and 4950 pharmacokinetic profiles were simulated with doses ranging from 4 to 12 mg/kg. We trained and benchmarked four machine learning algorithms and selected the best to iteratively search for the optimal dose of daptomycin maximizing the event (AUC/CMI > 666 and C0 < 24.3 mg/L). The ML algorithm was evaluated in simulations and an external database of real patients in comparison with population pharmacokinetics. RESULTS: The performance of the Xgboost algorithms developed to predict the event (ROC AUC) in the training and test set were 0.762 and 0.761, respectively. The most important prediction variables were dose, creatinine clearance, body weight and sex. In the external database of real patients, the starting dose administered based on the ML algorithm significantly improved the target attainment by 7.9% (p-value = 0.02929) in comparison with the dose administered based on body weight. CONCLUSION: The developed algorithm improved the target attainment for daptomycin in comparison with weight-based dosing. We built a Shiny app to calculate the optimal starting dose.