RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The updated Australian System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (AusSCORE II) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Score are well-established tools in cardiac surgery for estimating operative mortality risk. No validation analysis of both risk models has been undertaken for a contemporary New Zealand population undergoing isolated coronary bypass surgery. We therefore aimed to assess the efficacy of these models in predicting mortality for New Zealand patients receiving isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A prospective database was maintained of patients undergoing isolated CABG at a major tertiary referral centre in New Zealand between September 2014 and September 2017. This database collected the patients' demographic, clinical, biochemical, operative and mortality data. The primary outcome measure was the correlation between the predicted AusSCORE II and STS Score mortality risks and the observed 30-day mortality events for all patients in the database using discrimination and calibration statistics. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test respectively. RESULTS: A total of 933 patients underwent isolated CABG during the 3-year study period. There were seven deaths in the study cohort occurring within 30 days of surgery. Discrimination analysis demonstrated the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the AusSCORE II and STS Score as 88.2% (95% CI: 85.9-90.2, p<0.0001) and 92.1% (95% CI: 90.2-93.7, p<0.0001) respectively. Calibration analysis revealed Hosmer-Lemeshow test p-values for the AusSCORE II and STS Score as 0.696 and 0.294 respectively. DISCUSSION: ROC curve analysis produced very high and statistically significant AUC values for the AusSCORE II and STS Score. Hosmer-Lemeshow test analysis revealed that both risk scoring tools are well calibrated for our study cohort. Therefore, the AusSCORE II and STS Score are both strongly predictive of 30-day mortality for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery in our New Zealand patient population. Both risk models have performed with excellent discrimination and calibration. There is, however, a need to consider the performance of these risk stratification models in other cardiac surgical procedures outside isolated coronary bypass surgery where appropriate.