Genetic insights into the age-specific biological mechanisms governing human ovarian aging.

There is currently little evidence that the genetic basis of human phenotype varies significantly across the lifespan. However, time-to-event phenotypes are understudied and can be thought of as reflecting an underlying hazard, which is unlikely to be constant through life when values take a broad range. Here, we find that 74% of 245 genome-wide significant genetic associations with age at natural menopause (ANM) in the UK Biobank show a form of age-specific effect. Nineteen of these replicated discoveries are identified only by our modeling framework, which determines the time dependency of DNA-variant age-at-onset associations without a significant multiple-testing burden. Across the range of early to late menopause, we find evidence for significantly different underlying biological pathways, changes in the signs of genetic correlations of ANM to health indicators and outcomes, and differences in inferred causal relationships. We find that DNA damage response processes only act to shape ovarian reserve and depletion for women of early ANM. Genetically mediated delays in ANM were associated with increased relative risk of breast cancer and leiomyoma at all ages and with high cholesterol and heart failure for late-ANM women. These findings suggest that a better understanding of the age dependency of genetic risk factor relationships among health indicators and outcomes is achievable through appropriate statistical modeling of large-scale biobank data.

Liability-scale heritability estimation for biobank studies of low-prevalence disease.

Theory for liability-scale models of the underlying genetic basis of complex disease provides an important way to interpret, compare, and understand results generated from biological studies. In particular, through estimation of the liability-scale heritability (LSH), liability models facilitate an understanding and comparison of the relative importance of genetic and environmental risk factors that shape different clinically important disease outcomes. Increasingly, large-scale biobank studies that link genetic information to electronic health records, containing hundreds of disease diagnosis indicators that mostly occur infrequently within the sample, are becoming available. Here, we propose an extension of the existing liability-scale model theory suitable for estimating LSH in biobank studies of low-prevalence disease. In a simulation study, we find that our derived expression yields lower mean square error (MSE) and is less sensitive to prevalence misspecification as compared to previous transformations for diseases with ≤2% population prevalence and LSH of ≤0.45, especially if the biobank sample prevalence is less than that of the wider population. Applying our expression to 13 diagnostic outcomes of ≤3% prevalence in the UK Biobank study revealed important differences in LSH obtained from the different theoretical expressions that impact the conclusions made when comparing LSH across disease outcomes. This demonstrates the importance of careful consideration for estimation and prediction of low-prevalence disease outcomes and facilitates improved inference of the underlying genetic basis of ≤2% population prevalence diseases, especially where biobank sample ascertainment results in a healthier sample population.

Improving GWAS discovery and genomic prediction accuracy in biobank data.

Genetically informed, deep-phenotyped biobanks are an important research resource and it is imperative that the most powerful, versatile, and efficient analysis approaches are used. Here, we apply our recently developed Bayesian grouped mixture of regressions model (GMRM) in the UK and Estonian Biobanks and obtain the highest genomic prediction accuracy reported to date across 21 heritable traits. When compared to other approaches, GMRM accuracy was greater than annotation prediction models run in the LDAK or LDPred-funct software by 15% (SE 7%) and 14% (SE 2%), respectively, and was 18% (SE 3%) greater than a baseline BayesR model without single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers grouped into minor allele frequency-linkage disequilibrium (MAF-LD) annotation categories. For height, the prediction accuracy R2 was 47% in a UK Biobank holdout sample, which was 76% of the estimated [Formula: see text]. We then extend our GMRM prediction model to provide mixed-linear model association (MLMA) SNP marker estimates for genome-wide association (GWAS) discovery, which increased the independent loci detected to 16,162 in unrelated UK Biobank individuals, compared to 10,550 from BoltLMM and 10,095 from Regenie, a 62 and 65% increase, respectively. The average [Formula: see text] value of the leading markers increased by 15.24 (SE 0.41) for every 1% increase in prediction accuracy gained over a baseline BayesR model across the traits. Thus, we show that modeling genetic associations accounting for MAF and LD differences among SNP markers, and incorporating prior knowledge of genomic function, is important for both genomic prediction and discovery in large-scale individual-level studies.

Haematological changes from conception to childbirth: An indicator of major pregnancy complications.

BACKGROUND: About 800 women die every day worldwide from pregnancy-related complications, including excessive blood loss, infections and high-blood pressure (World Health Organization, 2019). To improve screening for high-risk pregnancies, we set out to identify patterns of maternal hematological changes associated with future pregnancy complications. METHODS: Using mixed effects models, we established changes in 14 complete blood count (CBC) parameters for 1710 healthy pregnancies and compared them to measurements from 98 pregnancy-induced hypertension, 106 gestational diabetes and 339 postpartum hemorrhage cases. RESULTS: Results show interindividual variations, but good individual repeatability in CBC values during physiological pregnancies, allowing the identification of specific alterations in women with obstetric complications. For example, in women with uncomplicated pregnancies, haemoglobin count decreases of 0.12 g/L (95% CI -0.16, -0.09) significantly per gestation week (p value <.001). Interestingly, this decrease is three times more pronounced in women who will develop pregnancy-induced hypertension, with an additional decrease of 0.39 g/L (95% CI -0.51, -0.26). We also confirm that obstetric complications and white CBC predict the likelihood of giving birth earlier during pregnancy. CONCLUSION: We provide a comprehensive description of the associations between haematological changes through pregnancy and three major obstetric complications to support strategies for prevention, early-diagnosis and maternal care.

Evidence of directional and stabilizing selection in contemporary humans.

Modern molecular genetic datasets, primarily collected to study the biology of human health and disease, can be used to directly measure the action of natural selection and reveal important features of contemporary human evolution. Here we leverage the UK Biobank data to test for the presence of linear and nonlinear natural selection in a contemporary population of the United Kingdom. We obtain phenotypic and genetic evidence consistent with the action of linear/directional selection. Phenotypic evidence suggests that stabilizing selection, which acts to reduce variance in the population without necessarily modifying the population mean, is widespread and relatively weak in comparison with estimates from other species.

Detection and quantification of inbreeding depression for complex traits from SNP data.

Quantifying the effects of inbreeding is critical to characterizing the genetic architecture of complex traits. This study highlights through theory and simulations the strengths and shortcomings of three SNP-based inbreeding measures commonly used to estimate inbreeding depression (ID). We demonstrate that heterogeneity in linkage disequilibrium (LD) between causal variants and SNPs biases ID estimates, and we develop an approach to correct this bias using LD and minor allele frequency stratified inference (LDMS). We quantified ID in 25 traits measured in [Formula: see text] participants of the UK Biobank, using LDMS, and confirmed previously published ID for 4 traits. We find unique evidence of ID for handgrip strength, waist/hip ratio, and visual and auditory acuity (ID between -2.3 and -5.2 phenotypic SDs for complete inbreeding; [Formula: see text]). Our results illustrate that a careful choice of the measure of inbreeding combined with LDMS stratification improves both detection and quantification of ID using SNP data.

Explaining additional genetic variation in complex traits.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have provided valuable insights into the genetic basis of complex traits, discovering >6000 variants associated with >500 quantitative traits and common complex diseases in humans. The associations identified so far represent only a fraction of those that influence phenotype, because there are likely to be many variants across the entire frequency spectrum, each of which influences multiple traits, with only a small average contribution to the phenotypic variance. This presents a considerable challenge to further dissection of the remaining unexplained genetic variance within populations, which limits our ability to predict disease risk, identify new drug targets, improve and maintain food sources, and understand natural diversity. This challenge will be met within the current framework through larger sample size, better phenotyping, including recording of nongenetic risk factors, focused study designs, and an integration of multiple sources of phenotypic and genetic information. The current evidence supports the application of quantitative genetic approaches, and we argue that one should retain simpler theories until simplicity can be traded for greater explanatory power.

Social genetic and social environment effects on parental and helper care in a cooperatively breeding bird.

Phenotypes expressed in a social context are not only a function of the individual, but can also be shaped by the phenotypes of social partners. These social effects may play a major role in the evolution of cooperative breeding if social partners differ in the quality of care they provide and if individual carers adjust their effort in relation to that of other carers. When applying social effects models to wild study systems, it is also important to explore sources of individual plasticity that could masquerade as social effects. We studied offspring provisioning rates of parents and helpers in a wild population of long-tailed tits Aegithalos caudatus using a quantitative genetic framework to identify these social effects and partition them into genetic, permanent environment and current environment components. Controlling for other effects, individuals were consistent in their provisioning effort at a given nest, but adjusted their effort based on who was in their social group, indicating the presence of social effects. However, these social effects differed between years and social contexts, indicating a current environment effect, rather than indicating a genetic or permanent environment effect. While this study reveals the importance of examining environmental and genetic sources of social effects, the framework we present is entirely general, enabling a greater understanding of potentially important social effects within any ecological population.

Replicated analysis of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits in two wild great tit populations.

Currently, there is much debate on the genetic architecture of quantitative traits in wild populations. Is trait variation influenced by many genes of small effect or by a few genes of major effect? Where is additive genetic variation located in the genome? Do the same loci cause similar phenotypic variation in different populations? Great tits (Parus major) have been studied extensively in long-term studies across Europe and consequently are considered an ecological 'model organism'. Recently, genomic resources have been developed for the great tit, including a custom SNP chip and genetic linkage map. In this study, we used a suite of approaches to investigate the genetic architecture of eight quantitative traits in two long-term study populations of great tits--one in the Netherlands and the other in the United Kingdom. Overall, we found little evidence for the presence of genes of large effects in either population. Instead, traits appeared to be influenced by many genes of small effect, with conservative estimates of the number of contributing loci ranging from 31 to 310. Despite concordance between population-specific heritabilities, we found no evidence for the presence of loci having similar effects in both populations. While population-specific genetic architectures are possible, an undetected shared architecture cannot be rejected because of limited power to map loci of small and moderate effects. This study is one of few examples of genetic architecture analysis in replicated wild populations and highlights some of the challenges and limitations researchers will face when attempting similar molecular quantitative genetic studies in free-living populations.

Methylome-wide studies of six metabolic traits.

Exploring the molecular correlates of metabolic health measures may identify the shared and unique biological processes and pathways that they track. Here, we performed epigenome-wide association studies (EWASs) of six metabolic traits: body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage, waist-hip ratio (WHR), and blood-based measures of glucose, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and total cholesterol. We considered blood-based DNA methylation (DNAm) from >750,000 CpG sites in over 17,000 volunteers from the Generation Scotland (GS) cohort. Linear regression analyses identified between 304 and 11,815 significant CpGs per trait at P<3.6×10-8, with 37 significant CpG sites across all six traits. Further, we performed a Bayesian EWAS that jointly models all CpGs simultaneously and conditionally on each other, as opposed to the marginal linear regression analyses. This identified between 3 and 27 CpGs with a posterior inclusion probability ≥ 0.95 across the six traits. Next, we used elastic net penalised regression to train epigenetic scores (EpiScores) of each trait in GS, which were then tested in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936; European ancestry) and Health for Life in Singapore (HELIOS; Indian-, Malay- and Chinese-ancestries). A maximum of 27.1% of the variance in BMI was explained by the BMI EpiScore in the subset of Malay-ancestry Singaporeans. Four metabolic EpiScores were associated with general cognitive function in LBC1936 in models adjusted for vascular risk factors (Standardised ßrange: 0.08 - 0.12, PFDR < 0.05). EpiScores of metabolic health are applicable across ancestries and can reflect differences in brain health.

Quantifying multivariate plasticity: genetic variation in resource acquisition drives plasticity in resource allocation to components of life history.

Acquisition and allocation of resources are central to life-history theory. However, empirical work typically focuses only on allocation despite the fact that relationships between fitness components may be governed by differences in the ability of individuals to acquire resources across environments. Here, we outline a statistical framework to partition the genetic basis of multivariate plasticity into independent axes of genetic variation, and quantify for the first time, the extent to which specific traits drive multitrait genotype-environment interactions. Our framework generalises to analyses of plasticity, growth and ageing. We apply this approach to a unique, large-scale, multivariate study of acquisition, allocation and plasticity in the life history of the cricket, Gryllus firmus. We demonstrate that resource acquisition and allocation are genetically correlated, and that plasticity in trade-offs between allocation to components of fitness is 90% dependent on genetic variance for total resource acquisition. These results suggest that genotype-environment effects for resource acquisition can maintain variation in life-history components that are typically observed in the wild.

Partitioning of genetic variation across the genome using multimarker methods in a wild bird population.

The underlying basis of genetic variation in quantitative traits, in terms of the number of causal variants and the size of their effects, is largely unknown in natural populations. The expectation is that complex quantitative trait variation is attributable to many, possibly interacting, causal variants, whose effects may depend upon the sex, age and the environment in which they are expressed. A recently developed methodology in animal breeding derives a value of relatedness among individuals from high-density genomic marker data, to estimate additive genetic variance within livestock populations. Here, we adapt and test the effectiveness of these methods to partition genetic variation for complex traits across genomic regions within ecological study populations where individuals have varying degrees of relatedness. We then apply this approach for the first time to a natural population and demonstrate that genetic variation in wing length in the great tit (Parus major) reflects contributions from multiple genomic regions. We show that a polygenic additive mode of gene action best describes the patterns observed, and we find no evidence of dosage compensation for the sex chromosome. Our results suggest that most of the genomic regions that influence wing length have the same effects in both sexes. We found a limited amount of genetic variance in males that is attributed to regions that have no effects in females, which could facilitate the sexual dimorphism observed for this trait. Although this exploratory work focuses on one complex trait, the methodology is generally applicable to any trait for any laboratory or wild population, paving the way for investigating sex-, age- and environment-specific genetic effects and thus the underlying genetic architecture of phenotype in biological study systems.

Genomic dissection of variation in clutch size and egg mass in a wild great tit (Parus major) population.

Clutch size and egg mass are life history traits that have been extensively studied in wild bird populations, as life history theory predicts a negative trade-off between them, either at the phenotypic or at the genetic level. Here, we analyse the genomic architecture of these heritable traits in a wild great tit (Parus major) population, using three marker-based approaches - chromosome partitioning, quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping and a genome-wide association study (GWAS). The variance explained by each great tit chromosome scales with predicted chromosome size, no location in the genome contains genome-wide significant QTL, and no individual SNPs are associated with a large proportion of phenotypic variation, all of which may suggest that variation in both traits is due to many loci of small effect, located across the genome. There is no evidence that any regions of the genome contribute significantly to both traits, which combined with a small, nonsignificant negative genetic covariance between the traits, suggests the absence of genetic constraints on the independent evolution of these traits. Our findings support the hypothesis that variation in life history traits in natural populations is likely to be determined by many loci of small effect spread throughout the genome, which are subject to continued input of variation by mutation and migration, although we cannot exclude the possibility of an additional input of major effect genes influencing either trait.

Refining epigenetic prediction of chronological and biological age.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic clocks can track both chronological age (cAge) and biological age (bAge). The latter is typically defined by physiological biomarkers and risk of adverse health outcomes, including all-cause mortality. As cohort sample sizes increase, estimates of cAge and bAge become more precise. Here, we aim to develop accurate epigenetic predictors of cAge and bAge, whilst improving our understanding of their epigenomic architecture. METHODS: First, we perform large-scale (N = 18,413) epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of chronological age and all-cause mortality. Next, to create a cAge predictor, we use methylation data from 24,674 participants from the Generation Scotland study, the Lothian Birth Cohorts (LBC) of 1921 and 1936, and 8 other cohorts with publicly available data. In addition, we train a predictor of time to all-cause mortality as a proxy for bAge using the Generation Scotland cohort (1214 observed deaths). For this purpose, we use epigenetic surrogates (EpiScores) for 109 plasma proteins and the 8 component parts of GrimAge, one of the current best epigenetic predictors of survival. We test this bAge predictor in four external cohorts (LBC1921, LBC1936, the Framingham Heart Study and the Women's Health Initiative study). RESULTS: Through the inclusion of linear and non-linear age-CpG associations from the EWAS, feature pre-selection in advance of elastic net regression, and a leave-one-cohort-out (LOCO) cross-validation framework, we obtain cAge prediction with a median absolute error equal to 2.3 years. Our bAge predictor was found to slightly outperform GrimAge in terms of the strength of its association to survival (HRGrimAge = 1.47 [1.40, 1.54] with p = 1.08 × 10-52, and HRbAge = 1.52 [1.44, 1.59] with p = 2.20 × 10-60). Finally, we introduce MethylBrowsR, an online tool to visualise epigenome-wide CpG-age associations. CONCLUSIONS: The integration of multiple large datasets, EpiScores, non-linear DNAm effects, and new approaches to feature selection has facilitated improvements to the blood-based epigenetic prediction of biological and chronological age.

Senescence and age-specific trade-offs between reproduction and survival in female Asian elephants.

Although studies on laboratory species and natural populations of vertebrates have shown reproduction to impair later performance, little is known of the age-specific associations between reproduction and survival, and how such findings apply to the ageing of large, long-lived species. Herein we develop a framework to examine population-level patterns of reproduction and survival across lifespan in long-lived organisms, and decompose those changes into individual-level effects, and the effects of age-specific trade-offs between fitness components. We apply this to an extensive longitudinal dataset on female semi-captive Asian timber elephants (Elephas maximus) and report the first evidence of age-specific fitness declines that are driven by age-specific associations between fitness components in a long-lived mammal. Associations between reproduction and survival are positive in early life, but negative in later life with up to 71% of later-life survival declines associated with investing in the production of offspring within this population of this critically endangered species.

Environment-dependent selection on mate choice in a natural population of birds.

Female mate choice acts as an important evolutionary force, yet the influence of the environment on both its expression and the selective pressures acting upon it remains unknown. We found consistent heritable differences between females in their choice of mate based on ornament size during a 25-year study of a population of collared flycatchers. However, the fitness consequences of mate choice were dependent on environmental conditions experienced whilst breeding. Females breeding with highly ornamented males experienced high relative fitness during dry summer conditions, but low relative fitness during wetter years. Our results imply that sexual selection within a population can be highly variable and dependent upon the prevailing weather conditions experienced by individuals.

Genome- and epigenome-wide studies of plasma protein biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease implicate TBCA and TREM2 in disease risk.

Introduction: The levels of many blood proteins are associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD) or its pathological hallmarks. Elucidating the molecular factors that control circulating levels of these proteins may help to identify proteins associated with disease risk mechanisms. Methods: Genome-wide and epigenome-wide studies (nindividuals ≤1064) were performed on plasma levels of 282 AD-associated proteins, identified by a structured literature review. Bayesian penalized regression estimated contributions of genetic and epigenetic variation toward inter-individual differences in plasma protein levels. Mendelian randomization (MR) and co-localization tested associations between proteins and disease-related phenotypes. Results: Sixty-four independent genetic and 26 epigenetic loci were associated with 45 proteins. Novel findings included an association between plasma triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (TREM2) levels and a polymorphism and cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) site within the MS4A4A locus. Higher plasma tubulin-specific chaperone A (TBCA) and TREM2 levels were significantly associated with lower AD risk. Discussion: Our data inform the regulation of biomarker levels and their relationships with AD.

Blood-based epigenome-wide analyses of cognitive abilities.

BACKGROUND: Blood-based markers of cognitive functioning might provide an accessible way to track neurodegeneration years prior to clinical manifestation of cognitive impairment and dementia. RESULTS: Using blood-based epigenome-wide analyses of general cognitive function, we show that individual differences in DNA methylation (DNAm) explain 35.0% of the variance in general cognitive function (g). A DNAm predictor explains ~4% of the variance, independently of a polygenic score, in two external cohorts. It also associates with circulating levels of neurology- and inflammation-related proteins, global brain imaging metrics, and regional cortical volumes. CONCLUSIONS: As sample sizes increase, the ability to assess cognitive function from DNAm data may be informative in settings where cognitive testing is unreliable or unavailable.

Environmental heterogeneity generates fluctuating selection on a secondary sexual trait.

In any population in which resources are limiting, the allocation of resources toward increased reproductive success may generate costs to survival [1-8]. The relationship between a sexually selected trait and fitness will therefore represent a balance between its relative associations with fecundity versus viability [3, 6, 7]. Because the risk of mortality in a population is likely to be heavily determined by ecological conditions, survival costs may vary as a function of the prevailing environment [7]. As a result, for populations experiencing heterogeneous ecological conditions, there may not be a single optimal level of allocation toward reproduction versus survival [9]. Here, we show that early viability and fecundity selection act in opposing directions on a secondary sexual trait and that their relative magnitude depends upon ecological conditions, generating fluctuating selection. In a wild population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries), phenotypic and genetic associations between male horn growth and lifetime reproductive success were positive under good environmental conditions (because of increased breeding success) and negative under poor environmental conditions (because of reduced survival). In an unpredictable environment, high allocation to early horn growth is a gamble that will only pay off if ensuing conditions are favorable. Such fluctuating selection may play an important role in preventing the erosion of genetic variance in secondary sexual traits.