Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system.

Predator-prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey1-4. However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods5-8 and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors9-19. Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator-prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator-prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator-prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.

Revealing instabilities in a generalized triadic supply network: A bifurcation analysis.

Supply networks are exposed to instabilities and thus a high level of risk. To mitigate this risk, it is necessary to understand how instabilities are formed in supply networks. In this paper, we focus on instabilities in inventory dynamics that develop due to the topology of the supply network. To be able to capture these topology-induced instabilities, we use a method called generalized modeling, a minimally specified modeling approach adopted from ecology. This method maps the functional dependencies of production rates on the inventory levels of different parts and products, which are imposed by the network topology, to a set of elasticity parameters. We perform a bifurcation analysis to investigate how these elasticities affect the stability. First, we show that dyads and serial supply chains are immune to topology-induced instabilities. In contrast, in a simple triadic network, where a supplier acts as both a first and a second tier supplier, we can identify instabilities that emerge from saddle-node, Hopf, and global homoclinic bifurcations. These bifurcations lead to different types of dynamical behavior, including exponential convergence to and divergence from a steady state, temporary oscillations around a steady state, and co-existence of different types of dynamics, depending on initial conditions. Finally, we discuss managerial implications of the results.

Collapse of an ecological network in Ancient Egypt.

The dynamics of ecosystem collapse are fundamental to determining how and why biological communities change through time, as well as the potential effects of extinctions on ecosystems. Here, we integrate depictions of mammals from Egyptian antiquity with direct lines of paleontological and archeological evidence to infer local extinctions and community dynamics over a 6,000-y span. The unprecedented temporal resolution of this dataset enables examination of how the tandem effects of human population growth and climate change can disrupt mammalian communities. We show that the extinctions of mammals in Egypt were nonrandom and that destabilizing changes in community composition coincided with abrupt aridification events and the attendant collapses of some complex societies. We also show that the roles of species in a community can change over time and that persistence is predicted by measures of species sensitivity, a function of local dynamic stability. To our knowledge, our study is the first high-resolution analysis of the ecological impacts of environmental change on predator-prey networks over millennial timescales and sheds light on the historical events that have shaped modern animal communities.

Impact of dispersal on the stability of metapopulations.

Dispersal is a key ecological process that enables local populations to form spatially extended systems called metapopulations. In the present study, we investigate how dispersal affects the linear stability of a general single-species metapopulation model. We discuss both the influence of local within-patch dynamics and the effects of various dispersal behaviours on stability. We find that positive density-dependent dispersal and positive density-dependent settlement are destabilizing dispersal behaviours while negative density-dependent dispersal and negative density-dependent settlement are stabilizing. It is also shown that dispersal has a stabilizing impact on heterogeneous metapopulations that correlates positively with the number of patches and the connectance of metapopulation networks.

How to predict community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity.

Recent attempts to predict the response of large food webs to perturbations have revealed that in larger systems increasingly precise information on the elements of the system is required. Thus, the effort needed for good predictions grows quickly with the system's complexity. Here, we show that not all elements need to be measured equally well, suggesting that a more efficient allocation of effort is possible. We develop an iterative technique for determining an efficient measurement strategy. In model food webs, we find that it is most important to precisely measure the mortality and predation rates of long-lived, generalist, top predators. Prioritizing the study of such species will make it easier to understand the response of complex food webs to perturbations.

Vertical distribution and composition of phytoplankton under the influence of an upper mixed layer.

The vertical distribution of phytoplankton is of fundamental importance for the dynamics and structure of aquatic communities. Here, using an advection-reaction-diffusion model, we investigate the distribution and competition of phytoplankton species in a water column, in which inverse resource gradients of light and a nutrient can limit growth of the biomass. This problem poses a challenge for ecologists, as the location of a production layer is not fixed, but rather depends on many internal parameters and environmental factors. In particular, we study the influence of an upper mixed layer (UML) in this system and show that it leads to a variety of dynamic effects: (i) Our model predicts alternative density profiles with a maximum of biomass either within or below the UML, thereby the system may be bistable or the relaxation from an unstable state may require a long-lasting transition. (ii) Reduced mixing in the deep layer can induce oscillations of the biomass; we show that a UML can sustain these oscillations even if the diffusivity is less than the critical mixing for a sinking phytoplankton population. (iii) A UML can strongly modify the outcome of competition between different phytoplankton species, yielding bistability both in the spatial distribution and in the species composition. (iv) A light limited species can obtain a competitive advantage if the diffusivity in the deep layers is reduced below a critical value. This yields a subtle competitive exclusion effect, where the oscillatory states in the deep layers are displaced by steady solutions in the UML. Finally, we present a novel graphical approach for deducing the competition outcome and for the analysis of the role of a UML in aquatic systems.

Generalized models reveal stabilizing factors in food webs.

Insights into what stabilizes natural food webs have always been limited by a fundamental dilemma: Studies either need to make unwarranted simplifying assumptions, which undermines their relevance, or only examine few replicates of small food webs, which hampers the robustness of findings. We used generalized modeling to study several billion replicates of food webs with nonlinear interactions and up to 50 species. In this way, first we show that higher variability in link strengths stabilizes food webs only when webs are relatively small, whereas larger webs are instead destabilized. Second, we reveal a new power law describing how food-web stability scales with the number of species and their connectance. Third, we report two universal rules: Food-web stability is enhanced when (i) species at a high trophic level feed on multiple prey species and (ii) species at an intermediate trophic level are fed upon by multiple predator species.