Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths. METHODS: We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days. RESULTS: The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154 935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.

Risk of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in relation to cold spells in four seasons.

BACKGROUND: Cold winter weather increases the risk of stroke, but the evidence is scarce on whether the risk increases during season-specific cold weather in the other seasons. The objective of our study was to test the hypothesis of an association between personal cold spells and different types of stroke in the season-specific context, and to formally assess effect modification by age and sex. METHODS: We conducted a case-crossover study of all 5396 confirmed 25-64 years old cases with stroke in the city of Kaunas, Lithuania, 2000-2015. We assigned to each case a one-week hazard period and 15 reference periods of the same calendar days of other study years. A personal cold day was defined for each case with a mean temperature below the fifth percentile of the frequency distribution of daily mean temperatures of the hazard and reference periods. Conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) representing associations between time- and place-specific cold weather and stroke. RESULTS: There were positive associations between cold weather and stroke in Kaunas, with each additional cold day during the week before the stroke increases the risk by 3% (OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.00-1.07). The association was present for ischemic stroke (OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09) but not hemorrhagic stroke (OR 0.98; 95% CI 0.91-1.06). In the summer, the risk of stroke increased by 8% (OR 1.08; 95% CI 1.00-1.16) per each additional cold day during the hazard period. Age and sex did not modify the effect. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that personal cold spells increase the risk of stroke, and this pertains to ischemic stroke specifically. Most importantly, cold weather in the summer season may be a previously unrecognized determinant of stroke.

Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities.

BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. METHODS: We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived. RESULTS: On average, an increase of 10 µg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).

Differential Mortality Risks Associated With PM2.5 Components: A Multi-Country, Multi-City Study.

BACKGROUND: The association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality widely differs between as well as within countries. Differences in PM2.5 composition can play a role in modifying the effect estimates, but there is little evidence about which components have higher impacts on mortality. METHODS: We applied a 2-stage analysis on data collected from 210 locations in 16 countries. In the first stage, we estimated location-specific relative risks (RR) for mortality associated with daily total PM2.5 through time series regression analysis. We then pooled these estimates in a meta-regression model that included city-specific logratio-transformed proportions of seven PM2.5 components as well as meta-predictors derived from city-specific socio-economic and environmental indicators. RESULTS: We found associations between RR and several PM2.5 components. Increasing the ammonium (NH4+) proportion from 1% to 22%, while keeping a relative average proportion of other components, increased the RR from 1.0063 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.0030, 1.0097) to 1.0102 (95% CI = 1.0070, 1.0135). Conversely, an increase in nitrate (NO3-) from 1% to 71% resulted in a reduced RR, from 1.0100 (95% CI = 1.0067, 1.0133) to 1.0037 (95% CI = 0.9998, 1.0077). Differences in composition explained a substantial part of the heterogeneity in PM2.5 risk. CONCLUSIONS: These findings contribute to the identification of more hazardous emission sources. Further work is needed to understand the health impacts of PM2.5 components and sources given the overlapping sources and correlations among many components.

Cold Weather and Cardiac Arrest in 4 Seasons: Helsinki, Finland, 1997‒2018.

Objectives. To test the a priori hypothesis that out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is associated with cold weather during all seasons, not only during the winter. Methods. We applied a case‒crossover design to all cases of nontraumatic OHCA in Helsinki, Finland, over 22 years: 1997 to 2018. We statistically defined cold weather for each case and season, and applied conditional logistic regression with 2 complementary models a priori according to the season of death. Results. There was an association between cold weather and OHCA during all seasons, not only during the winter. Each additional cold day increased the odds of OHCA by 7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4%, 10%), with similar strength of association during the autumn (6%; 95% CI = 0%, 12%), winter (6%; 95% CI = 1%, 12%), spring (8%; 95% CI = 2%, 14%), and summer (7%; 95% CI = 0%, 15%). Conclusions. Cold weather, defined according to season, increased the odds of OHCA during all seasons in similar quantity. Public Health Implications. Early warning systems and cold weather plans focus implicitly on the winter season. This may lead to incomplete measures in reducing excess mortality related to cold weather. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):107-115. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306549).

Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe.

Air temperature has been the most commonly used exposure metric in assessing relationships between thermal stress and mortality. Lack of the high-quality meteorological station data necessary to adequately characterize the thermal environment has been one of the main limitations for the use of more complex thermal indices. Global climate reanalyses may provide an ideal platform to overcome this limitation and define complex heat and cold stress conditions anywhere in the world. In this study, we explored the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) based on ERA5 - the latest global climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) - as a health-related tool. Employing a novel ERA5-based thermal comfort dataset ERA5-HEAT, we investigated the relationships between the UTCI and daily mortality data in 21 cities across 9 European countries. We used distributed lag nonlinear models to assess exposure-response relationships between mortality and thermal conditions in individual cities. We then employed meta-regression models to pool the results for each city into four groups according to climate zone. To evaluate the performance of ERA5-based UTCI, we compared its effects on mortality with those for the station-based UTCI data. In order to assess the additional effect of the UTCI, the performance of ERA5-and station-based air temperature (T) was evaluated. Whilst generally similar heat- and cold-effects were observed for the ERA5-and station-based data in most locations, the important role of wind in the UTCI appeared in the results. The largest difference between any two datasets was found in the Southern European group of cities, where the relative risk of mortality at the 1st percentile of daily mean temperature distribution (1.29 and 1.30 according to the ERA5 vs station data, respectively) considerably exceeded the one for the daily mean UTCI (1.19 vs 1.22). These differences were mainly due to the effect of wind in the cold tail of the UTCI distribution. The comparison of exposure-response relationships between ERA5-and station-based data shows that ERA5-based UTCI may be a useful tool for definition of life-threatening thermal conditions in locations where high-quality station data are not available.

Airborne pollen concentrations and daily mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular causes.

We conducted a time-series analysis of the relations between daily levels of allergenic pollen and mortality in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area with 153 378 deaths; 9742 from respiratory and 57 402 from cardiovascular causes. Daily (average) pollen counts of alder, birch, mugwort and grass were measured. In quasi-Poisson regression analysis, abundant alder pollen increased the risk of non-accidental deaths with an adjusted cumulative mortality rate ratio (acMRR) of 1.10 (95% CI 1.01-1.19) and of deaths from respiratory-diseases with acMRR of 1.78 (95% CI 1.19-2.65). Abundant mugwort pollen increased cardiovascular mortality (1.41, 1.02-1.95). These findings identify an important global public health problem.

Short-term prenatal exposure to ambient air pollution and risk of preterm birth - A population-based cohort study in Finland.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have provided evidence that prenatal exposure to low-level air pollution increases the risk of preterm birth (PTB), but the findings of the effects of short-term exposure have been inconclusive. Moreover, there is little knowledge on potential synergistic effects of different combinations of air pollutants. OBJECTIVES: To assess independent and joint effects of prenatal exposure to air pollutants during the week prior to the delivery on the risk of PTB. METHODS: The study population included 2568 members of the Espoo Cohort Study, living in the City of Espoo, Finland, born between 1984 and 1990. We assessed individual-level prenatal exposure to ambient air pollutants of interest based on maternal residential addresses, while taking into account their residential mobility. We used both regional-to-city-scale dispersion modelling and land-use regression-based method to estimates the pollutant concentrations. We contrasted the risk of PTB in the highest quartile (Q4) of exposure to the lower exposure quartiles (Q1-Q3) during the specific periods of pregnancy. We applied Poisson regression analysis to estimate the adjusted risk ratios (RRs) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for season of birth, maternal age, sex of the baby, family's socioeconomic status, maternal smoking, and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke during pregnancy, single parenthood, and exposure to other air pollutants (this in multi-pollutant models). RESULTS: The risk of PTB was related to exposures to PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 during the week prior to the delivery with adjusted RRs of 1.67 (95%CI: 1.14, 2.46), 1.60 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.34) and 1.65 (95% CI: 1.14, 2.37), from three-pollutant models respectively. There were no significant joint effects for these different air pollutants (during the week prior to the delivery). CONCLUSION: Our results provide evidence that exposure to fairly low-level air pollution may trigger PTB, but synergistic effects of different pollutants are not likely.

Paradoxical home temperatures during cold weather: a proof-of-concept study.

There is substantial epidemiological evidence on the associations between cold weather and adverse health effects. Meteorological alarm systems are being developed globally, and generalized protective advice is given to the public based on outdoor exposure parameters. It is not clear how these shared outdoor exposure parameters relate to the individual-level thermal exposure indoors, where the majority of time is spent. We hypothesized a priori that there are opposite correlations between indoor and outdoor temperatures in residential apartments. Apartments were classified into 3 categories according to their response to declining outdoor temperature: under-controlled apartments cool down, controlled apartments maintain constant indoor temperature level, and over-controlled apartments warm up. Outdoor and indoor temperatures were measured in 30-min intervals in 417 residential apartments in 14 buildings in Kotka, Finland, between February and April 2018 with outdoor temperatures ranging from - 20.4 °C to + 14.0 °C. Different apartment types were present in all buildings. Floor and orientation did not explain the divergence. Indoor temperatures below the limit value + 20 °C by building code occurred in 26.2%, 7.9%, and 23.6% of the under-controlled, controlled, and over-controlled apartments, some in conjunction with increasing outdoor temperatures. Indoor temperatures above the limit + 25 °C occurred but were more rare. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates that while the home environment may be a source of thermal stress during cold weather, generalized advice for adjusting the heating may lead to paradoxical exposures in some cases. More elaborate conceptualizations of everyday thermal exposures are needed to safely reduce weather-related health risks using shared meteorological alarm systems.

Synergistic effects of prenatal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) on the risk of preterm birth: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is some evidence that prenatal exposure to low-level air pollution increases the risk of preterm birth (PTB), but little is known about synergistic effects of different pollutants. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the independent and joint effects of prenatal exposure to air pollution during the entire duration of pregnancy. METHODS: The study population consisted of the 2568 members of the Espoo Cohort Study, born between 1984 and 1990, and living in the City of Espoo, Finland. We assessed individual-level prenatal exposure to ambient air pollutants of interest at all the residential addresses from conception to birth. The pollutant concentrations were estimated both by using regional-to-city-scale dispersion modelling and land-use regression-based method. We applied Poisson regression analysis to estimate the adjusted risk ratios (RRs) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI) by comparing the risk of PTB among babies with the highest quartile (Q4) of exposure during the entire duration of pregnancy with those with the lower exposure quartiles (Q1-Q3). We adjusted for season of birth, maternal age, sex of the baby, family's socioeconomic status, maternal smoking during pregnancy, maternal exposure to environmental tobacco smoke during pregnancy, single parenthood, and exposure to other air pollutants (only in multi-pollutant models) in the analysis. RESULTS: In a multi-pollutant model estimating the effects of exposure during entire pregnancy, the adjusted RR was 1.37 (95% CI: 0.85, 2.23) for PM2.5 and 1.64 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.35) for O3. The joint effect of PM2.5 and O3 was substantially higher, an adjusted RR of 3.63 (95% CI: 2.16, 6.10), than what would have been expected from their independent effects (0.99 for PM2.5 and 1.34 for O3). The relative risk due to interaction (RERI) was 2.30 (95% CI: 0.95, 4.57). DISCUSSION: Our results strengthen the evidence that exposure to fairly low-level air pollution during pregnancy increases the risk of PTB. We provide novel observations indicating that individual air pollutants such as PM2.5 and O3 may act synergistically potentiating each other's adverse effects.

Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.

Cardiovascular responses to cold and submaximal exercise in patients with coronary artery disease.

Regular year-round exercise is recommended for patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the combined effects of cold and moderate sustained exercise, both known to increase cardiac workload, on cardiovascular responses are not known. We tested the hypothesis that cardiac workload is increased, and evidence of ischemia would be observed during exercise in the cold in patients with CAD. Sixteen men (59.3 ± 7.0 yr, means ± SD) with stable CAD each underwent 4, 30 min exposures in a randomized order: seated rest and moderate-intensity exercise [walking, 60%-70% of max heart rate (HR)] performed at +22°C and -15°C. Systolic brachial blood pressure (SBP), HR, electrocardiogram (ECG), and skin temperatures were recorded throughout the intervention. Rate pressure product (RPP) and ECG parameters were obtained. The combined effects of cold and submaximal exercise were additive for SBP and RPP and synergistic for HR when compared with rest in a neutral environment. RPP (mmHg·beats/min) was 17% higher during exercise in the cold (18,080 ± 3540) compared with neutral (15,490 ± 2,940) conditions ( P = 0.001). Only a few ST depressions were detected during exercise but without an effect of ambient temperature. The corrected QT interval increased while exercising in the cold compared with neutral temperature ( P = 0.023). Recovery of postexercise blood pressure was similar regardless of temperature. Whole body exposure to cold during submaximal exercise results in higher cardiac workload compared with a neutral environment. Despite the higher RPP, no signs of myocardial ischemia or abnormal ECG responses were observed. The results of this study are useful for planning year-round exercise-based rehabilitation programs for stable CAD patients.

Association between winter cold spells and acute myocardial infarction in Lithuania 2000-2015.

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a major public health problem. Cold winter weather increases the risk of AMI, but factors influencing susceptibility are poorly known. We conducted an individual-level case-crossover study of the associations between winter cold spells and the risk of AMI, with special focus on survival at 28 days and effect modification by age and sex. All 16,071 adult cases of AMI among the residents of the city of Kaunas in Lithuania in 2000-2015 were included in the study. Cold weather was statistically defined using the 5th percentile of frequency distribution of daily mean temperatures over the winter months. According to conditional logistic regression controlling for time-varying and time-invariant confounders, each additional cold spell day during the week preceding AMI increased the risk of AMI by 5% (95% CI 1-9%). For nonfatal and fatal cases, the risk increase per each additional cold spell day was 5% (95% CI 1-9%) and 6% (95% CI - 2-13%), respectively. The effect estimate was greater for men (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.12) than for women (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.08), but there was no evidence of effect modification by age. Evidence on factors increasing susceptibility is critical for targeted cold weather planning.

Ambient carbon monoxide and daily mortality: a global time-series study in 337 cities.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association between short-term exposure to ambient CO and daily mortality in a multicity, multicountry setting. METHODS: We collected daily data on air pollution, meteorology, and total mortality from 337 cities in 18 countries or regions, covering various periods from 1979 to 2016. All included cities had at least 2 years of both CO and mortality data. We estimated city-specific associations using confounder-adjusted generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, and then pooled the estimates, accounting for their statistical uncertainty, using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. We also assessed the overall shape of the exposure-response curve and evaluated the possibility of a threshold below which health is not affected. FINDINGS: Overall, a 1 mg/m3 increase in the average CO concentration of the previous day was associated with a 0·91% (95% CI 0·32-1·50) increase in daily total mortality. The pooled exposure-response curve showed a continuously elevated mortality risk with increasing CO concentrations, suggesting no threshold. The exposure-response curve was steeper at daily CO levels lower than 1 mg/m3, indicating greater risk of mortality per increment in CO exposure, and persisted at daily concentrations as low as 0·6 mg/m3 or less. The association remained similar after adjustment for ozone but was attenuated after adjustment for particulate matter or sulphur dioxide, or even reduced to null after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide. INTERPRETATION: This international study is by far the largest epidemiological investigation on short-term CO-related mortality. We found significant associations between ambient CO and daily mortality, even at levels well below current air quality guidelines. Further studies are warranted to disentangle its independent effect from other traffic-related pollutants. FUNDING: EU Horizon 2020, UK Medical Research Council, and Natural Environment Research Council.

Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale: A Multicountry Study.

BACKGROUND: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. METHODS: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. RESULTS: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. CONCLUSIONS: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.

Weather Conditions and COVID-19 Incidence in a Cold Climate: A Time-Series Study in Finland.

Background: The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading globally at an accelerated rate. There is some previous evidence that weather may influence the incidence of COVID-19 infection. We assessed the role of meteorological factors including temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) considering the concentrations of two air pollutants, inhalable coarse particles (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the incidence of COVID-19 infections in Finland, located in arctic-subarctic climatic zone. Methods: We retrieved daily counts of COVID-19 in Finland from Jan 1 to May 31, 2020, nationwide and separately for all 21 hospital districts across the country. The meteorological and air quality data were from the monitoring stations nearest to the central district hospital. A quasi-Poisson generalized additional model (GAM) was fitted to estimate the associations between district-specific meteorological factors and the daily counts of COVID-19 during the study period. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. Results: The incidence rate of COVID-19 gradually increased until a peak around April 6 and then decreased. There were no associations between daily temperature and incidence rate of COVID-19. Daily average RH was negatively associated with daily incidence rate of COVID-19 in two hospital districts located inland. No such association was found nationwide. Conclusions: Weather conditions, such as air temperature and relative humidity, were not related to the COVID-19 incidence during the first wave in the arctic and subarctic winter and spring. The inference is based on a relatively small number of cases and a restricted time period.

Endothelial function in response to exercise in the cold in patients with coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: Regular long-term physical exercise has favourable effects on endothelial function in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the effects of an acute exercise bout in the cold on endothelial function are not known. METHODS: At first, the effects of moderate-intensity aerobic lower-body exercise were assessed in CAD patients (n = 16) in a neutral [+22°C] and cold [-15°C] environment. Secondly, responses to static and dynamic upper-body exercise in a neutral [+22°C] and cold [-15°C] environment were investigated in CAD patients (n = 15). All experiments were performed in a random order. Endothelial function was measured by flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery in response to reactive hyperaemia, before and after the exposures in a neutral environment. RESULTS: No significant temperature*exercise*condition (pre-post) interaction was observed in FMD% when comparing rest versus aerobic exercise or static versus dynamic upper-body exercise. Relative reactive hyperaemia during FMD protocol, measured by changes in shear rate, was elevated after rest compared to aerobic exercise (p = .001) and after static compared to dynamic upper-body exercise (p < .001). However, no significant temperature*exercise*condition interaction was observed when FMD% was normalized for shear rate. CONCLUSIONS: Endothelial function to an acute bout of exercise among CAD patients was not modified by the environmental temperature where the exercise was performed. The present findings argue against the hypothesis that exercise in cold environmental conditions impairs endothelial function in patients with CAD.

Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions. METHODS: DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk. FINDINGS: The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99. INTERPRETATION: This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health. FUNDING: Korea Ministry of Environment.

How urban characteristics affect vulnerability to heat and cold: a multi-country analysis.

BACKGROUND: The health burden associated with temperature is expected to increase due to a warming climate. Populations living in cities are likely to be particularly at risk, but the role of urban characteristics in modifying the direct effects of temperature on health is still unclear. In this contribution, we used a multi-country dataset to study effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships by a range of city-specific indicators. METHODS: We collected ambient temperature and mortality daily time-series data for 340 cities in 22 countries, in periods between 1985 and 2014. Standardized measures of demographic, socio-economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators were derived from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Regional and Metropolitan Database. We used distributed lag non-linear and multivariate meta-regression models to estimate fractions of mortality attributable to heat and cold (AF%) in each city, and to evaluate the effect modification of each indicator across cities. RESULTS: Heat- and cold-related deaths amounted to 0.54% (95% confidence interval: 0.49 to 0.58%) and 6.05% (5.59 to 6.36%) of total deaths, respectively. Several city indicators modify the effect of heat, with a higher mortality impact associated with increases in population density, fine particles (PM2.5), gross domestic product (GDP) and Gini index (a measure of income inequality), whereas higher levels of green spaces were linked with a decreased effect of heat. CONCLUSIONS: This represents the largest study to date assessing the effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships. Evidence from this study can inform public-health interventions and urban planning under various climate-change and urban-development scenarios.

Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability.

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.