Geomagnetic secular variation forecast using the NASA GEMS ensemble Kalman filter: A candidate SV model for IGRF-13.

ABSTRACT: We have produced a 5-year mean secular variation (SV) of the geomagnetic field for the period 2020-2025. We use the NASA Geomagnetic Ensemble Modeling System (GEMS), which consists of the NASA Goddard geodynamo model and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with 400 ensemble members. Geomagnetic field models are used as observations for the assimilation, including gufm1 (1590-1960), CM4 (1961-2000) and CM6 (2001-2019). The forecast involves a bias correction scheme that assumes that the model bias changes on timescales much longer than the forecast period, so that they can be removed by successive forecast series. The algorithm was validated on the time period 2010-2015 by comparing with CM6 before being applied to the 2020-2025 time period. This forecast has been submitted as a candidate predictive model of IGRF-13 for the period 2020-2025.

Geodetic evidence that Mercury has a solid inner core.

Geodetic analysis of radio tracking measurements of the MESSENGER spacecraft while in orbit about Mercury has yielded new estimates for the planet's gravity field, tidal Love number, and pole coordinates. The derived right ascension (α = 281.0082° ± 0.0009°; all uncertainties are 3 standard deviations) and declination (δ =61.4164° ± 0.0003°) of the spin pole place Mercury in the Cassini state. Confirmation of the equilibrium state with an estimated mean (whole-planet) obliquity ϵ of 1.968 ± 0.027 arcmin enables the confident determination of the planet's normalized polar moment of inertia (0.333 ± 0.005), which indicates a high degree of internal differentiation. Internal structure models generated by a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo process and consistent with the geodetic constraints possess a solid inner core with a radius (r ic ) between 0.3 and 0.7 that of the outer core (r oc ).

A Comprehensive Model of Earth's Magnetic Field Determined From 4 Years of Swarm Satellite Observations.

The European Space Agency's three-satellite constellation Swarm, launched in November 2013, has provided unprecedented monitoring of Earth's magnetic field via a unique set of gradiometric and multi-satellite measurements from low Earth orbit. In order to exploit these measurements, an advanced "Comprehensive Inversion" (CI) algorithm has been developed to optimally separate the various major magnetic field sources in the near-Earth regime. The CI algorithm is used to determine Swarm Level-2 (L2) magnetic field data products that include the core, lithospheric, ionospheric, magnetospheric, and associated induced sources. In addition, it has become apparent that the CI is capable of extracting the magnetic signal associated with the oceanic principal lunar semi-diurnal tidal constituent M 2 to such an extent that it has been added to the L2 data product line. This paper presents the parent model of the Swarm L2 CI products derived with measurements from the first four years of the Swarm mission and from ground observatories, denoted as "CIY4", including the new product describing the magnetic signal of the M 2 oceanic tide.

Evidence for a Low Bulk Crustal Density for Mars from Gravity and Topography.

Knowledge of the average density of the crust of a planet is important in determining its interior structure. The combination of high-resolution gravity and topography data has yielded a low density for the Moon's crust, yet for other terrestrial planets the resolution of the gravity field models has hampered reasonable estimates. By using well-chosen constraints derived from topography during gravity field model determination using satellite tracking data, we show that we can robustly and independently determine the average bulk crustal density directly from the tracking data, using the admittance between topography and imperfect gravity. We find a low average bulk crustal density for Mars, 2582 ± 209 kg m-3. This bulk crustal density is lower than that assumed until now. Densities for volcanic complexes are higher, consistent with earlier estimates, implying large lateral variations in crustal density. In addition, we find indications that the crustal density increases with depth.

High-resolution local gravity model of the south pole of the Moon from GRAIL extended mission data.

We estimated a high-resolution local gravity field model over the south pole of the Moon using data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory's extended mission. Our solution consists of adjustments with respect to a global model expressed in spherical harmonics. The adjustments are expressed as gridded gravity anomalies with a resolution of 1/6° by 1/6° (equivalent to that of a degree and order 1080 model in spherical harmonics), covering a cap over the south pole with a radius of 40°. The gravity anomalies have been estimated from a short-arc analysis using only Ka-band range-rate (KBRR) data over the area of interest. We apply a neighbor-smoothing constraint to our solution. Our local model removes striping present in the global model; it reduces the misfit to the KBRR data and improves correlations with topography to higher degrees than current global models. KEY POINTS: We present a high-resolution gravity model of the south pole of the Moon Improved correlations with topography to higher degrees than global models Improved fits to the data and reduced striping that is present in global models.

GRGM900C: A degree 900 lunar gravity model from GRAIL primary and extended mission data.

We have derived a gravity field solution in spherical harmonics to degree and order 900, GRGM900C, from the tracking data of the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) Primary (1 March to 29 May 2012) and Extended Missions (30 August to 14 December 2012). A power law constraint of 3.6 ×10-4/ℓ2 was applied only for degree ℓ greater than 600. The model produces global correlations of gravity, and gravity predicted from lunar topography of ≥ 0.98 through degree 638. The model's degree strength varies from a minimum of 575-675 over the central nearside and farside to 900 over the polar regions. The model fits the Extended Mission Ka-Band Range Rate data through 17 November 2012 at 0.13 µm/s RMS, whereas the last month of Ka-Band Range-Rate data obtained from altitudes of 2-10 km fit at 0.98 µm/s RMS, indicating that there is still signal inherent in the tracking data beyond degree 900.

Patched Local Lunar Gravity Solutions Using GRAIL Data.

We present a method to determine local gravity fields for the Moon using Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) data. We express gravity as gridded gravity anomalies on a sphere, and we estimate adjustments to a background global start model expressed in spherical harmonics. We processed GRAIL Ka-band range-rate data with a short-arc approach, using only data over the area of interest. We determine our gravity solutions using neighbor smoothing constraints. We divided the entire Moon into 12 regions and 2 polar caps, with a resolution of 0.15 ° × 0.15 ° (which is equivalent to degree and order 1199 in spherical harmonics), and determined the optimal smoothing parameter for each area by comparing localized correlations between gravity and topography for each solution set. Our selected areas share nodes with surrounding areas and they are overlapping. To mitigate boundary effects, we patch the solutions together by symmetrically omitting the boundary parts of overlapping solutions. Our new solution has been iterated, and it has improved correlations with topography when compared to a fully iterated global model. Our method requires fewer resources, and can easily handle regionally varying resolution or constraints. The smooth model describes small-scale features clearly, and can be used in local studies of the structure of the lunar crust.

Water Storage Trends in High Mountain Asia.

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in High Mountain Asia (HMA) could have major societal impacts, as the region's large reservoirs of glaciers, snow, and groundwater provide a freshwater source to more than one billion people. We seek to quantify and close the budget of secular changes in TWS over the span of the GRACE satellite mission (2003-2016). To assess the TWS trend budget we consider a new high-resolution mass trend product determined directly from GRACE L1B data, glacier mass balance derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), groundwater variability determined from confined and unconfined well observations, and terrestrial water budget estimates from a suite of land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System (LIS). This effort is successful at closing the aggregated TWS trend budget over the entire HMA region, the glaciated portion of HMA, and the Indus and Ganges basins, where the full-region trends are primarily due to the glacier mass balance and groundwater signals. Additionally, we investigate the closure of TWS trends at individual 1-arc-degree mascons (area ≈12,000 km2); a significant improvement in spatial resolution over previous analyses of GRACE-derived trends. This mascon-level analysis reveals locations where the TWS trends are well-explained by the independent datasets, as well as regions where they are not; identifying specific geographic areas where additional data and model improvements are needed. The accurate characterization of total TWS trends and its components presented here is critical to understanding the complex dynamics of the region, and is a necessary step toward projecting future water mass changes in HMA.

Satellite tidal magnetic signals constrain oceanic lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary.

The tidal flow of electrically conductive oceans through the geomagnetic field results in the generation of secondary magnetic signals, which provide information on the subsurface structure. Data from the new generation of satellites were shown to contain magnetic signals due to tidal flow; however, there are no reports that these signals have been used to infer subsurface structure. We use satellite-detected tidal magnetic fields to image the global electrical structure of the oceanic lithosphere and upper mantle down to a depth of about 250 km. The model derived from more than 12 years of satellite data reveals a ≈72-km-thick upper resistive layer followed by a sharp increase in electrical conductivity likely associated with the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, which separates colder rigid oceanic plates from the ductile and hotter asthenosphere.

Lunar impact basins revealed by Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory measurements.

Observations from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission indicate a marked change in the gravitational signature of lunar impact structures at the morphological transition, with increasing diameter, from complex craters to peak-ring basins. At crater diameters larger than ~200 km, a central positive Bouguer anomaly is seen within the innermost peak ring, and an annular negative Bouguer anomaly extends outward from this ring to the outer topographic rim crest. These observations demonstrate that basin-forming impacts remove crustal materials from within the peak ring and thicken the crust between the peak ring and the outer rim crest. A correlation between the diameter of the central Bouguer gravity high and the outer topographic ring diameter for well-preserved basins enables the identification and characterization of basins for which topographic signatures have been obscured by superposed cratering and volcanism. The GRAIL inventory of lunar basins improves upon earlier lists that differed in their totals by more than a factor of 2. The size-frequency distributions of basins on the nearside and farside hemispheres of the Moon differ substantially; the nearside hosts more basins larger than 350 km in diameter, whereas the farside has more smaller basins. Hemispherical differences in target properties, including temperature and porosity, are likely to have contributed to these different distributions. Better understanding of the factors that control basin size will help to constrain models of the original impactor population.