A Prognostic Model for Critically Ill Children in Locations With Emerging Critical Care Capacity.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction model to risk stratify children admitted to PICUs in locations with limited resources, and compare performance of the model to nine existing pediatric severity scores. DESIGN: Retrospective, single-center, cohort study. SETTING: PICU of a pediatric hospital in Siem Reap, northern Cambodia. PATIENTS: Children between 28 days and 16 years old admitted nonelectively to the PICU. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Clinical and laboratory data recorded at the time of PICU admission were collected. The primary outcome was death during PICU admission. One thousand five hundred fifty consecutive nonelective PICU admissions were included, of which 97 died (6.3%). Most existing severity scores achieved comparable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUCs], 0.71-0.76) but only three scores demonstrated moderate diagnostic utility for triaging admissions into high- and low-risk groups (positive likelihood ratios [PLRs], 2.65-2.97 and negative likelihood ratios [NLRs], 0.40-0.46). The newly derived model outperformed all existing severity scores (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.80-0.88; p < 0.001). Using one particular threshold, the model classified 13.0% of admissions as high risk, among which probability of mortality was almost ten-fold greater than admissions triaged as low-risk (PLR, 5.75; 95% CI, 4.57-7.23 and NLR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.37-0.59). Decision curve analyses indicated that the model would be superior to all existing severity scores and could provide utility across the range of clinically plausible decision thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Existing pediatric severity scores have limited potential as risk stratification tools in resource-constrained PICUs. If validated, our prediction model would be a readily implementable mechanism to support triage of critically ill children at admission to PICU and could provide value across a variety of contexts where resource prioritization is important.

Effect of convalescent plasma as complementary treatment in patients with moderate COVID-19 infection.

INTRODUCTION: South America is one of the regions most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Specific and affordable treatments are needed to treat SARS-CoV-2 infection. Evidence regarding the use of convalescent plasma in COVID-19 patients is still limited. We compared the safety and efficacy of COVID-19-convalescent plasma administration as a complement to standard treatment in the early management of patients with moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: We carried out a random double blinded, placebo-controlled trial that compared standard treatment plus convalescent plasma (CP) or plus non-convalescent plasma in the management of COVID-19 patients. The main outcome was survival and secondary endpoints included: length of hospitalisation (LOH), days from treatment to discharge, time to clinical improvement or death within a 28-day period, and adverse reactions to treatment. RESULTS: Administration of CP with antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 did not affect patient survival, RR = 1.003, 95% CI (0.3938, 2.555). These results led to terminate the RCT prematurely. However, early treatment of COVID-19 patients with CP tended to decrease the LOH while the delay in CP treatment was associated with longer hospitalisation. In addition, delay in CP treatment negatively affected the recovery of the respiratory rate. CONCLUSION: Use of CP for the treatment of COVID-19 patients is safe and its early use can decrease the LOH and improve respiratory function. Early administration of antibody-rich CP could contribute to decrease the negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic in patients with impaired immune response.

Removal of a Knotted Pulmonary Artery Catheter Using a Percutaneous Tracheostomy Set.

Placement of a pulmonary artery catheter is not a risk-free technique. Related incidents include ventricular arrhythmias, air embolisms, pulmonary artery perforation, infections, or catheter thrombosis. Herein the authors report a rare complication-the intracardiac knotting and its successful extraction using a percutaneous tracheostomy set in a hemodynamically compromised patient after a heart transplant.

Alkali-Activated Hybrid Cements Based on Fly Ash and Construction and Demolition Wastes Using Sodium Sulfate and Sodium Carbonate.

This article demonstrates the possibility of producing alkali-activated hybrid cements based on fly ash (FA), and construction and demolition wastes (concrete waste, COW; ceramic waste, CEW; and masonry waste, MAW) using sodium sulfate (Na2SO4) (2-6%) and sodium carbonate (Na2CO3) (5-10%) as activators. From a mixture of COW, CEW, and MAW in equal proportions (33.33%), a new precursor called CDW was generated. The precursors were mixed with ordinary Portland cement (OPC) (10-30%). Curing of the materials was performed at room temperature (25 °C). The hybrid cements activated with Na2SO4 reached compressive strengths of up to 31 MPa at 28 days of curing, and the hybrid cements activated with Na2CO3 yielded compressive strengths of up to 22 MPa. Based on their mechanical performance, the optimal mixtures were selected: FA/30OPC-4%Na2SO4, CDW/30OPC-4%Na2SO4, FA/30OPC-10%Na2CO3, and CDW/30OPC-10%Na2CO3. At prolonged ages (180 days), these mixtures reached compressive strength values similar to those reported for pastes based on 100% OPC. A notable advantage is the reduction of the heat of the reaction, which can be reduced by up to 10 times relative to that reported for the hydration of Portland cement. These results show the feasibility of manufacturing alkaline-activated hybrid cements using alternative activators with a lower environmental impact.

Oseltamivir and influenza-related complications in children: a retrospective cohort in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) place considerable burden on healthcare systems, especially during influenza epidemics and pandemics. During the 2009/10 H1N1 influenza pandemic, UK national guidelines recommended antiviral medications for patients presenting within 72 h of ILI onset. However, it is not clear whether antiviral treatment was associated with reductions in influenza-related complications. METHODS: Our study population consisted of a retrospective cohort of children aged ≤17 years who presented with influenza/ILI at UK primary care practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink during the 2009/10 pandemic. We used doubly robust inverse-probability weighted propensity scores and physician prior prescribing instrumental variable methods to estimate the causal effect of oseltamivir prescribing on influenza-related complications. Secondary outcomes were complications requiring intervention, pneumonia, pneumonia or hospitalisation, influenza-related hospitalisation and all-cause hospitalisation. RESULTS: We included 16 162 children, of whom 4028 (24.9%) were prescribed oseltamivir, and 753 (4.7%) had recorded complications. Under propensity score analyses oseltamivir prescriptions were associated with reduced influenza-related complications (risk difference (RD) -0.015, 95% CI -0.022--0.008), complications requiring further intervention, pneumonia, pneumonia or hospitalisation and influenza-related hospitalisation, but not all-cause hospitalisation. Adjusted instrumental variable analyses estimated reduced influenza-related complications (RD -0.032, 95% CI -0.051--0.013), pneumonia or hospitalisation, all-cause and influenza-related hospitalisations. CONCLUSIONS: Based on causal inference analyses of observational data, oseltamivir treatment in children with influenza/ILI was associated with a small but statistically significant reduction in influenza-related complications during an influenza pandemic.

Correction to: The comorbidity burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus: patterns, clusters and predictions from a large English primary care cohort.

The original article [1] contains an omitted grant acknowledgement and affiliation as relates to the contribution of co-author, Rafael Perera-Salazar. As such, the following two amendments should apply to the original article.

A Patient-Based National Survey and Prospective Evaluation of Postoperative Pain Management in Spain: Prevalent but Possibly Preventable.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the national general prevalence of postoperative pain and the associated organizational/structural factors related to the provision of health care services. DESIGN AND SETTING: Observational prospective cohort study performed in 46 tertiary hospitals that were randomly selected from the Spanish National Inventory of Hospitals through a two-stage balanced and stratified procedure. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Nine-hundred surgical patients representing a wide spectrum of surgical procedures and anesthetic methods were recruited. Those suffering moderate or worse pain while in the postanesthesia care unit/surgery ward (PACU/SW) were followed for 72 hours. Site characteristics were also surveyed. Multilevel models were used to evaluate center- and patient-level factors associated with pain and quality of recovery (QoR). Weighted generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the evolution of pain intensity. RESULTS: The prevalence while in and at discharge from the PACU/SW was 48.7% (cluster-adjusted 95% confidence interval [CI] = 38.1-59.2%) and 21.6% (95% CI = 15.4-27.8%), respectively. Pain intensity decreased significantly over time. Less than 20% of the patients received systemic patient-controlled analgesia (PCA) or regional analgesic techniques. Age, preexisting pain, type of surgery, use of general anesthesia, and postoperative potent opioids were associated with pain risk and intensity, as were center-level factors such as patient information, protocol availability, and coordination of care. In turn, QoR was related to pain intensity and patient satisfaction with analgesia and side effects. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with previous reports, the prevalence of moderate/severe postoperative pain has decreased but remains excessive. Organizational improvements to deploy procedure-specific, opioid-sparing analgesic strategies including regional techniques are recommended.

Efficacy of self-monitored blood pressure, with or without telemonitoring, for titration of antihypertensive medication (TASMINH4): an unmasked randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Studies evaluating titration of antihypertensive medication using self-monitoring give contradictory findings and the precise place of telemonitoring over self-monitoring alone is unclear. The TASMINH4 trial aimed to assess the efficacy of self-monitored blood pressure, with or without telemonitoring, for antihypertensive titration in primary care, compared with usual care. METHODS: This study was a parallel randomised controlled trial done in 142 general practices in the UK, and included hypertensive patients older than 35 years, with blood pressure higher than 140/90 mm Hg, who were willing to self-monitor their blood pressure. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to self-monitoring blood pressure (self-montoring group), to self-monitoring blood pressure with telemonitoring (telemonitoring group), or to usual care (clinic blood pressure; usual care group). Randomisation was by a secure web-based system. Neither participants nor investigators were masked to group assignment. The primary outcome was clinic measured systolic blood pressure at 12 months from randomisation. Primary analysis was of available cases. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN 83571366. FINDINGS: 1182 participants were randomly assigned to the self-monitoring group (n=395), the telemonitoring group (n=393), or the usual care group (n=394), of whom 1003 (85%) were included in the primary analysis. After 12 months, systolic blood pressure was lower in both intervention groups compared with usual care (self-monitoring, 137·0 [SD 16·7] mm Hg and telemonitoring, 136·0 [16·1] mm Hg vs usual care, 140·4 [16·5]; adjusted mean differences vs usual care: self-monitoring alone, -3·5 mm Hg [95% CI -5·8 to -1·2]; telemonitoring, -4·7 mm Hg [-7·0 to -2·4]). No difference between the self-monitoring and telemonitoring groups was recorded (adjusted mean difference -1·2 mm Hg [95% CI -3·5 to 1·2]). Results were similar in sensitivity analyses including multiple imputation. Adverse events were similar between all three groups. INTERPRETATION: Self-monitoring, with or without telemonitoring, when used by general practitioners to titrate antihypertensive medication in individuals with poorly controlled blood pressure, leads to significantly lower blood pressure than titration guided by clinic readings. With most general practitioners and many patients using self-monitoring, it could become the cornerstone of hypertension management in primary care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research via Programme Grant for Applied Health Research (RP-PG-1209-10051), Professorship to RJM (NIHR-RP-R2-12-015), Oxford Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care, and Omron Healthcare UK.

The comorbidity burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus: patterns, clusters and predictions from a large English primary care cohort.

BACKGROUND: The presence of additional chronic conditions has a significant impact on the treatment and management of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Little is known about the patterns of comorbidities in this population. The aims of this study are to quantify comorbidity patterns in people with T2DM, to estimate the prevalence of six chronic conditions in 2027 and to identify clusters of similar conditions. METHODS: We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked with the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) data to identify patients diagnosed with T2DM between 2007 and 2017. 102,394 people met the study inclusion criteria. We calculated the crude and age-standardised prevalence of 18 chronic conditions present at and after the T2DM diagnosis. We analysed longitudinally the 6 most common conditions and forecasted their prevalence in 2027 using linear regression. We used agglomerative hierarchical clustering to identify comorbidity clusters. These analyses were repeated on subgroups stratified by gender and deprivation. RESULTS: More people living in the most deprived areas had ≥ 1 comorbidities present at the time of diagnosis (72% of females; 64% of males) compared to the most affluent areas (67% of females; 59% of males). Depression prevalence increased in all strata and was more common in the most deprived areas. Depression was predicted to affect 33% of females and 15% of males diagnosed with T2DM in 2027. Moderate clustering tendencies were observed, with concordant conditions grouped together and some variations between groups of different demographics. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidities are common in this population, and high between-patient variability in comorbidity patterns emphasises the need for patient-centred healthcare. Mental health is a growing concern, and there is a need for interventions that target both physical and mental health in this population.

Patient consultation rate and clinical and NHS outcomes: a cross-sectional analysis of English primary care data from 2.7 million patients in 238 practices.

BACKGROUND: Primary care workload is high and increasing in the United Kingdom. We sought to examine the association between rates of primary care consultation and outcomes in England. METHODS: Cross sectional observational study of routine electronic health care records in 283 practices from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink from April 2013 to March 2014. Outcomes included mortality rate, hospital admission rate, Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) performance and patient satisfaction. Relationships between consultation rates (with a general practitioner (GP) or nurse) and outcomes were investigated using negative binomial and ordinal logistic regression models. RESULTS: Rates of GP and nurse consultation (per patient person-year) were not associated with mortality or hospital admission rates: mortality incidence rate ratio (IRR) per unit change in GP/ nurse consultation rate = 1.01, 95% CI [0.98 to 1.04]/ 0.97, 95% CI [0.93 to 1.02]; hospital admission IRR per unit change in GP/ nurse consultation rate = 1.02, 95% CI [0.99 to 1.04]/ 0.98, 95% CI [0.94 to 1.032]. Higher rates of nurse but not GP consultation were associated with higher QOF achievement: OR = 1.91, 95% CI [1.39 to 2.62] per unit change in nurse consultation rate vs. OR = 1.04, 95% CI [0.87 to 1.24] per unit change in GP consultation rate. The association between the rates of GP/ nurse consultations and patient satisfaction was mixed. CONCLUSION: There are few associations between primary care consultation rates and outcomes. Previously identified demographic and staffing factors, rather than practice workload, appear to have the strongest relationships with mortality, admissions, performance and satisfaction. Studies with more detailed patient-level data would be required to explore these findings further.

Anesthesia for Percutaneous Pulmonary Valve Implantation: A Case Series.

BACKGROUND: Twenty percent of patients born with congenital heart disease present with right ventricular outflow tract abnormalities. These patients require multiple surgical procedures in their lifetime. Transcatheter pulmonary valve replacement (TPVR) has become a viable alternative to conventional pulmonary valve and right ventricular outflow tract surgery in pediatric and adult populations. In this retrospective review, we analyze the perioperative management of adult patients who underwent TPVR in our center. METHODS: The study consisted of a chart review of patients who underwent TPVR at Toronto General Hospital between 2006 and 2015. Information about preoperative assessment, intraoperative anesthetic management, and intra- and postprocedural complications was collected. Two types of percutaneous valves have been used for a conduit or valve size between 16 and 28 mm. These procedures are done via the femoral, jugular, or subclavian vein under general anesthesia. RESULTS: Seventy-nine adults (17-68 years of age) who underwent elective TPVR procedures were included. General anesthesia was used in all cases. Defibrillation was necessary in 1 case, and bradycardia was spontaneously resolved in another 1. Eighty-five percent were successfully extubated at the end of the procedure. Five patients required intraoperative inotropic support. Three patients presented self-resolved hemoptysis. Mechanical ventilation for >24 hours was necessary in 3 cases, 2 of which also required concomitant inotropic support. Four failed deployments and 1 case of persistent conduit stenosis were reported. Three patients required reintubation. All patients were discharged home. CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing TPVR represent a complex and heterogeneous population. General anesthesia with endotracheal intubation is preferred. Setup for urgent lung isolation and cardiac defibrillation should be considered. Postoperative monitoring and intensive care setting are required. Anesthesiologists with cardiac anesthesia training are probably better suited to manage these patients.

UK medical students' attitudes towards their future careers and general practice: a cross-sectional survey and qualitative analysis of an Oxford cohort.

BACKGROUND: Against the background of the recruitment crisis in general practice, we aimed to determine what United Kingdom (UK) medical students value in their future careers, how they perceive careers in general practice (GP) and what influences them. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey of 280 final and penultimate year medical students at the University of Oxford, with questions relating to career choices, factors of importance when choosing a career and attitudes towards general practice as a career. Quantitative methods included cluster analysis, chi squared tests of independence and logistic regression analysis. Qualitative data were analysed thematically using the Framework method. RESULTS: Response rate was 89% (280/315). 40% of participants said that general practice was an attractive or very attractive career option. Respondents valued job satisfaction, work-life balance and close relationships with patients. However, fewer than 20% of respondents agreed that community-based working was important to them and many (often citing particular GPs they had observed) felt that general practice as currently structured may not be satisfying or fulfilling because of high workload, financial pressures and externally imposed directives. 63% perceived GPs to have lower status than hospital specialties and 49% thought the overall culture of their medical school had negatively influenced their views towards general practice. Some respondents considered that general practice would not be intellectually challenging or compatible with a research career; some appeared to have had limited exposure to academic primary care. CONCLUSIONS: With the caveat that this was a sample from a single medical school, medical students may be put off careers in general practice by three main things: low perceived value of community-based working and low status of general practice (linked to a prevailing medical school culture); observing the pressures under which GPs currently work; and lack of exposure to academic role models and primary care-based research opportunities. To improve recruitment of the next generation of GPs, medical schools must provide high quality placements in general practice, expose students to academic role models and highlight to policymakers the links between the current pressures in UK general practice and the recruitment crisis.

Clinical workload in UK primary care: a retrospective analysis of 100 million consultations in England, 2007-14.

BACKGROUND: Primary care is the main source of health care in many health systems, including the UK National Health Service (NHS), but few objective data exist for the volume and nature of primary care activity. With rising concerns that NHS primary care workload has increased substantially, we aimed to assess the direct clinical workload of general practitioners (GPs) and practice nurses in primary care in the UK. METHODS: We did a retrospective analysis of GP and nurse consultations of non-temporary patients registered at 398 English general practices between April, 2007, and March, 2014. We used data from electronic health records routinely entered in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, and linked CPRD data to national datasets. Trends in age-standardised and sex-standardised consultation rates were modelled with joinpoint regression analysis. FINDINGS: The dataset comprised 101,818,352 consultations and 20,626,297 person-years of observation. The crude annual consultation rate per person increased by 10·51%, from 4·67 in 2007-08, to 5·16 in 2013-14. Consultation rates were highest in infants (age 0-4 years) and elderly people (≥85 years), and were higher for female patients than for male patients of all ages. The greatest increases in age-standardised and sex-standardised rates were in GPs, with a rise of 12·36% per 10,000 person-years, compared with 0·9% for practice nurses. GP telephone consultation rates doubled, compared with a 5·20% rise in surgery consultations, which accounted for 90% of all consultations. The mean duration of GP surgery consultations increased by 6·7%, from 8·65 min (95% CI 8·64-8·65) to 9·22 min (9·22-9·23), and overall workload increased by 16%. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show a substantial increase in practice consultation rates, average consultation duration, and total patient-facing clinical workload in English general practice. These results suggest that English primary care as currently delivered could be reaching saturation point. Notably, our data only explore direct clinical workload and not indirect activities and professional duties, which have probably also increased. This and additional research questions, including the outcomes of workload changes on other sectors of health care, need urgent answers for primary care provision internationally. FUNDING: Department of Health Policy Research Programme.

Telemonitoring and/or self-monitoring of blood pressure in hypertension (TASMINH4): protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Self-monitoring of hypertension is associated with lower systolic blood pressure (SBP). However, evidence for the use of self-monitoring to titrate antihypertensive medication by physicians is equivocal. Furthermore, there is some evidence for the efficacy of telemonitoring in the management of hypertension but it is not clear what this adds over and above self-monitoring. This trial aims to evaluate whether GP led antihypertensive titration using self-monitoring results in lower SBP compared to usual care and whether telemonitoring adds anything to self-monitoring alone. METHODS/DESIGN: This will be a pragmatic primary care based, unblinded, randomised controlled trial of self-monitoring of BP with or without telemonitoring compared to usual care. Eligible patients will have poorly controlled hypertension (>140/90 mmHg) and will be recruited from primary care. Participants will be individually randomised to either usual care, self-monitoring alone, or self-monitoring with telemonitoring. The primary outcome of the trial will be difference in clinic SBP between intervention and control groups at 12 months adjusted for baseline SBP, gender, BP target and practice. At least 1110 patients will be sufficient to detect a difference in SBP between self-monitoring with or without telemonitoring and usual care of 5 mmHg with 90% power with an adjusted alpha of 0.017 (2-sided) to adjust for all three pairwise comparisons. Other outcomes will include adherence of anti-hypertensive medication, lifestyle behaviours, health-related quality of life, and adverse events. An economic analysis will consider both within trial costs and a model extrapolating the results thereafter. A qualitative sub study will gain insights into the views, experiences and decision making processes of patients and health care professionals focusing on the acceptability of self-monitoring and telemonitoring in the routine management of hypertension. DISCUSSION: The results of the trial will be directly applicable to primary care in the UK. If successful, self-monitoring of BP in people with hypertension would be applicable to hundreds of thousands of individuals in the UK. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 83571366 . Registered 17 July 2014.

Vasopressin in Sepsis and Other Shock States: State of the Art.

This review of the use of vasopressin aims to be comprehensive and highly practical, based on the available scientific evidence and our extensive clinical experience with the drug. It summarizes controversies about vasopressin use in septic shock and other vasodilatory states. Vasopressin is a natural hormone with powerful vasoconstrictive effects and is responsible for the regulation of plasma osmolality by maintaining fluid homeostasis. Septic shock is defined by the need for vasopressors to correct hypotension and lactic acidosis secondary to infection, with a high mortality rate. The Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines recommend vasopressin as a second-line vasopressor, added to norepinephrine. However, these guidelines do not address specific debates surrounding the use of vasopressin in real-world clinical practice.

Hybrid Cements and Construction Elements Based on Alkaline Activation with Sodium Sulfates from Fly Ash and Construction and Demolition Waste.

This article demonstrates the possibility of producing hybrid cementitious materials (pastes, mortars, concretes, and precast elements) based on fly ash (FA) and construction and demolition wastes (CDW) using alkaline activation technology. Sodium sulfate was used as an activator and fine and coarse aggregates were obtained from CDW residues. An addition of Portland cement (OPC) (10 to 30%) allowed for improvement in the mechanical behavior of the hybrid cements and them to be cured at room temperature (25 °C). The FA and CDW cementitious materials obtained compressive strengths of 37 MPa and 32 MPa, respectively. The compressive strength of FA and CDW alkali-activated concretes at 28 days of curing was 22 MPa and 18 MPa, respectively, which identifies them as structural concretes according to NSR-10 title C in Colombia. The potential use of these concretes was validated by obtaining and classifying precast materials.

External validation of clinical severity scores to guide referral of paediatric acute respiratory infections in resource-limited primary care settings.

Accurate and reliable guidelines for referral of children from resource-limited primary care settings are lacking. We identified three practicable paediatric severity scores (the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA), the quick Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2, and the modified Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome) and externally validated their performance in young children presenting with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) to a primary care clinic located within a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. This secondary analysis of data from a longitudinal birth cohort study consisted of 3010 ARI presentations in children aged ≤ 24 months. The primary outcome was receipt of supplemental oxygen. We externally validated the discrimination, calibration, and net-benefit of the scores, and quantified gains in performance that might be expected if they were deployed as simple clinical prediction models, and updated to include nutritional status and respiratory distress. 104/3,010 (3.5%) presentations met the primary outcome. The LqSOFA score demonstrated the best discrimination (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.79-0.89) and achieved a sensitivity and specificity > 0.80. Converting the scores into clinical prediction models improved performance, resulting in ~ 20% fewer unnecessary referrals and ~ 30-50% fewer children incorrectly managed in the community. The LqSOFA score is a promising triage tool for young children presenting with ARIs in resource-limited primary care settings. Where feasible, deploying the score as a simple clinical prediction model might enable more accurate and nuanced risk stratification, increasing applicability across a wider range of contexts.

Therapist-assisted online psychological therapies differing in trauma focus for post-traumatic stress disorder (STOP-PTSD): a UK-based, single-blind, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Many patients are currently unable to access psychological treatments for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and it is unclear which types of therapist-assisted internet-based treatments work best. We aimed to investigate whether a novel internet-delivered cognitive therapy for PTSD (iCT-PTSD), which implements all procedures of a first-line, trauma-focused intervention recommended by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) for PTSD, is superior to internet-delivered stress management therapy for PTSD (iStress-PTSD), a comprehensive cognitive behavioural treatment programme focusing on a wide range of coping skills. METHODS: We did a single-blind, randomised controlled trial in three locations in the UK. Participants (≥18 years) were recruited from UK National Health Service (NHS) Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services or by self-referral and met DSM-5 criteria for PTSD to single or multiple events. Participants were randomly allocated by a computer programme (3:3:1) to iCT-PTSD, iStress-PTSD, or a 3-month waiting list with usual NHS care, after which patients who still met PTSD criteria were randomly allocated (1:1) to iCT-PTSD or iStress-PTSD. Randomisation was stratified by location, duration of PTSD (<18 months or ≥18 months), and severity of PTSD symptoms (high vs low). iCT-PTSD and iStress-PTSD were delivered online with therapist support by messages and short weekly phone calls over the first 12 weeks (weekly treatment phase), and three phone calls over the next 3 months (booster phase). The primary outcome was the severity of PTSD symptoms at 13 weeks after random assignment, measured by self-report on the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), and analysed by intention-to-treat. Safety was assessed in all participants who started treatment. Process analyses investigated acceptability and compliance with treatment, and candidate moderators and mediators of outcome. The trial was prospectively registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN16806208. FINDINGS: Of the 217 participants, 158 (73%) self-reported as female, 57 (26%) as male, and two (1%) as other; 170 (78%) were White British, 20 (9%) were other White, six (3%) were Asian, ten (5%) were Black, eight (4%) had a mixed ethnic background, and three (1%) had other ethnic backgrounds. Mean age was 36·36 years (SD 12·11; range 18-71 years). 52 (24%) participants met self-reported criteria for ICD-11 complex PTSD. Fewer than 10% of participants dropped out of each treatment group. iCT-PTSD was superior to iStress-PTSD in reducing PTSD symptoms, showing an adjusted difference on the PCL-5 of -4·92 (95% CI -8·92 to -0·92; p=0·016; standardised effect size d=0·38 [0·07 to 0·69]) for immediate allocations and -5·82 (-9·59 to -2·04; p=0·0027; d=0·44 [0·15 to 0·72]) for all treatment allocations. Both treatments were superior to the waiting list for PCL-5 at 13 weeks (d=1·67 [1·23 to 2·10] for iCT-PTSD and 1·29 [0·85 to 1·72] for iStress-PTSD). The advantages in outcome for iCT-PTSD were greater for participants with high dissociation or complex PTSD symptoms, and mediation analyses showed both treatments worked by changing negative meanings of the trauma, unhelpful coping, and flashback memories. No serious adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: Trauma-focused iCT-PTSD is effective and acceptable to patients with PTSD, and superior to a non-trauma-focused cognitive behavioural stress management therapy, suggesting that iCT-PTSD is an effective way of delivering the contents of CT-PTSD, one of the NICE-recommended first-line treatments for PTSD, while reducing therapist time compared with face-to-face therapy. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre.

Defining the role of host biomarkers in the diagnosis and prognosis of the severity of childhood pneumonia: a prospective cohort study.

Reliable tools to inform outpatient management of childhood pneumonia in resource-limited settings are needed. We investigated the value added by biomarkers of the host infection response to the performance of the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (LqSOFA), for triage of children presenting with pneumonia to a primary care clinic in a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. 900 consecutive presentations of children aged ≤ 24 months meeting WHO pneumonia criteria were included. The primary outcome was receipt of supplemental oxygen. We compared discrimination of a clinical risk score (LqSOFA) to markers of endothelial injury (Ang-1, Ang-2, sFlt-1), immune activation (CHI3L1, IP-10, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, sTNFR-1, sTREM-1), and inflammation (CRP, PCT), and quantified the net benefit of including biomarkers alongside LqSOFA. We evaluated the differential contribution of LqSOFA and host biomarkers to the diagnosis and prognosis of pneumonia severity. 49/900 (5.4%) presentations met the primary outcome. Discrimination of LqSOFA and Ang-2, the best performing biomarker, were comparable (AUC 0.82 [95% CI 0.76-0.88] and 0.81 [95% CI 0.74-0.87] respectively). Combining Ang-2 with LqSOFA improved discrimination (AUC 0.91; 95% CI 0.87-0.94; p < 0.001), and resulted in greater net benefit, with 10-30% fewer children who required oxygen supplementation incorrectly identified as safe for community-based management. Ang-2 had greater prognostic utility than LqSOFA to identify children requiring supplemental oxygen later in their illness course. Combining Ang-2 and LqSOFA could guide referrals of childhood pneumonia from resource-limited community settings. Further work on test development and integration into patient triage is required.

Understanding the Impact of a New Approach to the Safeguarding of Children at Risk: An Evaluation Protocol.

Introduction: Child Safeguarding Services intervene in situations where a child is at risk of serious emotional or physical harm. The response will vary according to the level of risk, but in serious cases, a child may need to be removed from danger and cared for by foster parents either temporarily or permanently. The number of children being taken into care has increased markedly in recent years in the United Kingdom. Oxfordshire County Council (OCC) is implementing a new approach to the welfare of children (Family Solutions Plus; FSP) in which the focus is to support the whole family and ideally reduce the need for foster care.In this paper, we describe a proposed programme of evaluation to examine the impact of FSP on the time children are in contact with services, the nature of the support provided, experience of children and families, the experience of staff, and longer term outcomes for children, particularly whether they remain within the family or need to be cared for outside the home. Methods and analysis: A mixed methods approach will be taken in an observational retrospective study of children's social care services. Quantitative research will include descriptive analysis on data routinely collected by OCC, examining the effect on time spent in services, outcomes for children and how these outcomes are mediated by family characteristics and circumstances. Qualitative research will be carried out using individual interviews and focus groups with children, families and staff in the teams providing family safeguarding services to capture their experiences with the new model. Ethics and dissemination: This project has been registered with the OCC as a service evaluation. The qualitative studies will seek ethical approval from Oxford University Ethics Committee. A local data sharing agreement will govern the transfer of quantitative data. Results will be disseminated through newsletters, community forums, professional publications and conference presentations to national and international audiences.