The environmental predictors of spatio-temporal variation in the breeding phenology of a passerine bird.

Establishing the cues or constraints that influence avian timing of breeding is the key to accurate prediction of future phenology. This study aims to identify the aspects of the environment that predict the timing of two measures of breeding phenology (nest initiation and egg laying date) in an insectivorous woodland passerine, the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus). We analyse data collected from a 220 km, 40-site transect over 3 years and consider spring temperatures, tree leafing phenology, invertebrate availability and photoperiod as predictors of breeding phenology. We find that mean night-time temperature in early spring is the strongest predictor of both nest initiation and lay date and suggest this finding is most consistent with temperature acting as a constraint on breeding activity. Birch budburst phenology significantly predicts lay date additionally to temperature, either as a direct cue or indirectly via a correlated variable. We use cross-validation to show that our model accurately predicts lay date in two further years and find that similar variables predict lay date well across the UK national nest record scheme. This work refines our understanding of the principal factors influencing the timing of tit reproductive phenology and suggests that temperature may have both a direct and indirect effect.

Phenological sensitivity to climate change is higher in resident than in migrant bird populations among European cavity breeders.

Many organisms adjust their reproductive phenology in response to climate change, but phenological sensitivity to temperature may vary between species. For example, resident and migratory birds have vastly different annual cycles, which can cause differential temperature sensitivity at the breeding grounds, and may affect competitive dynamics. Currently, however, adjustment to climate change in resident and migratory birds have been studied separately or at relatively small geographical scales with varying time series durations and methodologies. Here, we studied differential effects of temperature on resident and migratory birds using the mean egg laying initiation dates from 10 European nest box schemes between 1991 and 2015 that had data on at least one resident tit species and at least one migratory flycatcher species. We found that both tits and flycatchers advanced laying in response to spring warming, but resident tit populations advanced more strongly in relation to temperature increases than migratory flycatchers. These different temperature responses have already led to a divergence in laying dates between tits and flycatchers of on average 0.94 days per decade over the current study period. Interestingly, this divergence was stronger at lower latitudes where the interval between tit and flycatcher phenology is smaller and winter conditions can be considered more favorable for resident birds. This could indicate that phenological adjustment to climate change by flycatchers is increasingly hampered by competition with resident species. Indeed, we found that tit laying date had an additional effect on flycatcher laying date after controlling for temperature, and this effect was strongest in areas with the shortest interval between both species groups. Combined, our results suggest that the differential effect of climate change on species groups with overlapping breeding ecology affects the phenological interval between them, potentially affecting interspecific interactions.

Nest site preference depends on the relative density of conspecifics and heterospecifics in wild birds.

BACKGROUND: Social learning allows animals to eavesdrop on ecologically relevant knowledge of competitors in their environment. This is especially important when selecting a habitat if individuals have relatively little personal information on habitat quality. It is known that birds can use both conspecific and heterospecific information for social learning, but little is known about the relative importance of each information type. If provided with the choice between them, we expected that animals should copy the behaviour of conspecifics, as these confer the best information for that species. We tested this hypothesis in the field for Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca arriving at their breeding grounds to select a nest box for breeding. We assigned arbitrary symbols to nest boxes of breeding pied flycatchers (conspecifics) and blue and great tits, Cyanistes caeruleus and Parus major (heterospecifics), in 2014 and 2016 in two areas with different densities of tits and flycatchers. After ca 50% of flycatchers had returned and a flycatcher symbol was assigned to their nest box, we gave the later arriving flycatchers the choice between empty nest boxes with either a conspecific (flycatcher) or a heterospecific (tit) symbol. RESULTS: As expected, Pied Flycatchers copied the perceived nest box choice of conspecifics, but only in areas that were dominated by flycatchers. Against our initial expectation, flycatchers copied the perceived choice of heterospecifics in the area heavily dominated by tits, even though conspecific minority information was present. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that the relative density of conspecifics and heterospecifics modulates the propensity to copy or reject novel behavioural traits. By contrasting conspecific and heterospecific ecology in the same study design we were able to draw more general conclusions about the role of fluctuating densities on social information use.

Competitor phenology as a social cue in breeding site selection.

Predicting habitat quality is a major challenge for animals selecting a breeding patch, because it affects reproductive success. Breeding site selection may be based on previous experience, or on social information from the density and success of competitors with an earlier phenology. Variation in animal breeding phenology is often correlated with variation in habitat quality. Generally, animals breed earlier in high-quality habitats that allow them to reach a nutritional threshold required for breeding earlier or avoid nest predation. In addition, habitat quality may affect phenological overlap between species and thereby interspecific competition. Therefore, we hypothesized that competitor breeding phenology can be used as social cue by settling migrants to locate high-quality breeding sites. To test this hypothesis, we experimentally advanced and delayed hatching phenology of two resident tit species on the level of study plots and studied male and female settlement patterns of migratory pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca. The manipulations were assigned at random in two consecutive years, and treatments were swapped between years in sites that were used in both years. In both years, males settled in equal numbers across treatments, but later arriving females avoided pairing with males in delayed phenology plots. Moreover, male pairing probability declined strongly with arrival date on the breeding grounds. Our results demonstrate that competitor phenology may be used to assess habitat quality by settling migrants, but we cannot pinpoint the exact mechanism (e.g. resource quality, predation pressure or competition) that has given rise to this pattern. In addition, we show that opposing selection pressures for arrival timing may give rise to different social information availabilities between sexes. We discuss our findings in the context of climate warming, social information use and the evolution of protandry in migratory animals.

Phenological mismatch and ontogenetic diet shifts interactively affect offspring condition in a passerine.

Climate change may cause phenological asynchrony between trophic levels, which can lead to mismatched reproduction in animals. Although indirect effects of mismatch on fitness are well described, direct effects on parental prey choice are not. Moreover, direct effects of prey variation on offspring condition throughout their early development are understudied. Here, we used camera trap data collected over 2 years to study the effects of trophic mismatch and nestling age on prey choice in pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). Furthermore, we studied the effect of mismatch and variation in nestling diet on offspring condition. Both experimentally induced and natural mismatches with the caterpillar peak negatively affected absolute and relative numbers of caterpillars and offspring condition (mass, tarsus and wing length) and positively affected absolute and relative numbers of flying insects in the nestling diet. Feeding more flying insects was negatively correlated with nestling day 12 mass. Both descriptive and experimental data showed preferential feeding of spiders when nestlings were <7 days old. Receiving more spiders during this phase was positively correlated with tarsus growth. These results highlight the need for a more inclusive framework to study phenological mismatch in nature. The general focus on only one prey type, the rarity of studies that measure environmental abundance of prey, and the lack of timing experiments in dietary studies currently hamper understanding of the actual trophic interactions that affect fitness under climate change.

DNA metabarcoding quantifies the relative biomass of arthropod taxa in songbird diets: Validation with camera-recorded diets.

Ecological research is often hampered by the inability to quantify animal diets. Diet composition can be tracked through DNA metabarcoding of fecal samples, but whether (complex) diets can be quantitatively determined with metabarcoding is still debated and needs validation using free-living animals. This study validates that DNA metabarcoding of feces can retrieve actual ingested taxa, and most importantly, that read numbers retrieved from sequencing can also be used to quantify the relative biomass of dietary taxa. Validation was done with the hole-nesting insectivorous Pied Flycatcher whose diet was quantified using camera footage. Size-adjusted counts of food items delivered to nestlings were used as a proxy for provided biomass of prey orders and families, and subsequently, nestling feces were assessed through DNA metabarcoding. To explore potential effects of digestion, gizzard and lower intestine samples of freshly collected birds were subjected to DNA metabarcoding. For metabarcoding with Cytochrome Oxidase subunit I (COI), we modified published invertebrate COI primers LCO1490 and HCO1777, which reduced host reads to 0.03%, and amplified Arachnida DNA without significant changing the recovery of other arthropod taxa. DNA metabarcoding retrieved all commonly camera-recorded taxa. Overall, and in each replicate year (N = 3), the relative scaled biomass of prey taxa and COI read numbers correlated at R = .85 (95CI:0.68-0.94) at order level and at R = .75 (CI:0.67-0.82) at family level. Similarity in arthropod community composition between gizzard and intestines suggested limited digestive bias. This DNA metabarcoding validation demonstrates that quantitative analyses of arthropod diet is possible. We discuss the ecological applications for insectivorous birds.

Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts.

Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

Climate Change May Affect Fatal Competition between Two Bird Species.

Climate warming has altered phenologies of many taxa [1, 2], but the extent differs vastly between [3, 4] and within trophic levels [5-7]. Differential adjustment to climate warming within trophic levels may affect coexistence of competing species, because relative phenologies alter facilitative and competitive outcomes [8, 9], but evidence for this is scant [10, 11]. Here, we report on two mechanisms through which climate change may affect fatal interactions between two sympatric passerines, the resident great tit Parus major and the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, competing for nest sites. Spring temperature more strongly affected breeding phenology of tits than flycatchers, and tits killed more flycatchers when flycatcher arrival coincided with peak laying in the tits. Ongoing climate change may diminish this fatal competition if great tit and flycatcher phenologies diverge. However, great tit density increased after warm winters, and flycatcher mortality was elevated when tit densities were higher. Consequently, flycatcher males in synchronous and high-tit-density years suffered mortality by great tits of up to 8.9%. Interestingly, we found no population consequences of fatal competition, suggesting that mortality predominantly happened among surplus males. Indeed, late-arriving males are less likely to find a partner [12], and here we show that such late arrivers are more likely to die from competition with great tits. We conclude that our breeding population is buffered against detrimental effects of competition. Nevertheless, we expect that if buffers are diminished, population consequences of interspecific competition may become apparent, especially after warm winters that are benign to resident species. VIDEO ABSTRACT.