resPAINT: Accelerating Volumetric Super-Resolution Localisation Microscopy by Active Control of Probe Emission.

Points for accumulation in nanoscale topography (PAINT) allows practically unlimited measurements in localisation microscopy but is limited by background fluorescence at high probe concentrations, especially in volumetric imaging. We present reservoir-PAINT (resPAINT), which combines PAINT and active control of probe photophysics. In resPAINT, an activatable probe "reservoir" accumulates on target, enabling a 50-fold increase in localisation rate versus conventional PAINT, without compromising contrast. By combining resPAINT with large depth-of-field microscopy, we demonstrate super-resolution imaging of entire cell surfaces. We generalise the approach by implementing various switching strategies and 3D imaging techniques. Finally, we use resPAINT with a Fab to image membrane proteins, extending the operating regime of PAINT to include a wider range of biological interactions.

Review of biomarkers to assess the effects of switching from cigarettes to modified risk tobacco products.

Context: One approach to reducing the harm caused by cigarette smoking, at both individual and population level, is to develop, assess and commercialize modified risk alternatives that adult smokers can switch to. Studies to demonstrate the exposure and risk reduction potential of such products generally involve the measuring of biomarkers, of both exposure and effect, sampled in various biological matrices.Objective: In this review, we detail the pros and cons for using several biomarkers as indicators of effects of changing from conventional cigarettes to modified risk products.Materials and methods: English language publications between 2008 and 2017 were retrieved from PubMed using the same search criteria for each of the 25 assessed biomarkers. Nine exclusion criteria were applied to exclude non-relevant publications.Results: A total of 8876 articles were retrieved (of which 7476 were excluded according to the exclusion criteria). The literature indicates that not all assessed biomarkers return to baseline levels following smoking cessation during the study periods but that nine had potential for use in medium to long-term studies.Discussion and conclusion: In clinical studies, it is important to choose biomarkers that show the biological effect of cessation within the duration of the study.

High-density volumetric super-resolution microscopy.

Volumetric super-resolution microscopy typically encodes the 3D position of single-molecule fluorescence into a 2D image by changing the shape of the point spread function (PSF) as a function of depth. However, the resulting large and complex PSF spatial footprints reduce biological throughput and applicability by requiring lower labeling densities to avoid overlapping fluorescent signals. We quantitatively compare the density dependence of single-molecule light field microscopy (SMLFM) to other 3D PSFs (astigmatism, double helix and tetrapod) showing that SMLFM enables an order-of-magnitude speed improvement compared to the double helix PSF by resolving overlapping emitters through parallax. We demonstrate this optical robustness experimentally with high accuracy ( > 99.2 ± 0.1%, 0.1 locs µm-2) and sensitivity ( > 86.6 ± 0.9%, 0.1 locs µm-2) through whole-cell (scan-free) imaging and tracking of single membrane proteins in live primary B cells. We also exemplify high-density volumetric imaging (0.15 locs µm-2) in dense cytosolic tubulin datasets.

Recyclable thermosets based on modified epoxy-amine network polymers.

The development of high performance, recyclable thermoset materials for applications in plastics, composites, coatings and adhesives requires a synthetic approach where recyclability is designed into the molecular structure of the material. This paper describes a single stage process for the creation of materials from simple, low-cost molecular building blocks, where the polymerisation of liquid epoxy resins and aliphatic amines in the presence of an n-butyl diboronic ester, delivers epoxy-amine-dioxazaborocane materials with tunable physical properties including glass transition temperature (Tg). Mechanical (thermal) recycling and reprocessing of the epoxy-amine-dioxazaborocane thermoset is demonstrated, with retention of Young's modulus and ultimate tensile strength. Most notably, an efficient and low-cost process for the chemical recycling, disassembly and dissolution of the thermoset is demonstrated via two complementary processes using either pinacol (diol) or mono-functional phenylboronic ester.

Structural and non-coding variants increase the diagnostic yield of clinical whole genome sequencing for rare diseases.

BACKGROUND: Whole genome sequencing is increasingly being used for the diagnosis of patients with rare diseases. However, the diagnostic yields of many studies, particularly those conducted in a healthcare setting, are often disappointingly low, at 25-30%. This is in part because although entire genomes are sequenced, analysis is often confined to in silico gene panels or coding regions of the genome. METHODS: We undertook WGS on a cohort of 122 unrelated rare disease patients and their relatives (300 genomes) who had been pre-screened by gene panels or arrays. Patients were recruited from a broad spectrum of clinical specialties. We applied a bioinformatics pipeline that would allow comprehensive analysis of all variant types. We combined established bioinformatics tools for phenotypic and genomic analysis with our novel algorithms (SVRare, ALTSPLICE and GREEN-DB) to detect and annotate structural, splice site and non-coding variants. RESULTS: Our diagnostic yield was 43/122 cases (35%), although 47/122 cases (39%) were considered solved when considering novel candidate genes with supporting functional data into account. Structural, splice site and deep intronic variants contributed to 20/47 (43%) of our solved cases. Five genes that are novel, or were novel at the time of discovery, were identified, whilst a further three genes are putative novel disease genes with evidence of causality. We identified variants of uncertain significance in a further fourteen candidate genes. The phenotypic spectrum associated with RMND1 was expanded to include polymicrogyria. Two patients with secondary findings in FBN1 and KCNQ1 were confirmed to have previously unidentified Marfan and long QT syndromes, respectively, and were referred for further clinical interventions. Clinical diagnoses were changed in six patients and treatment adjustments made for eight individuals, which for five patients was considered life-saving. CONCLUSIONS: Genome sequencing is increasingly being considered as a first-line genetic test in routine clinical settings and can make a substantial contribution to rapidly identifying a causal aetiology for many patients, shortening their diagnostic odyssey. We have demonstrated that structural, splice site and intronic variants make a significant contribution to diagnostic yield and that comprehensive analysis of the entire genome is essential to maximise the value of clinical genome sequencing.

Adding a combination of hydroxycitrate and lipoic acid (METABLOC™) to chemotherapy improves effectiveness against tumor development: experimental results and case report.

Altered metabolism of cancer first highlighted by Otto Warburg has a long history. Although ignored for a considerable amount of time, it is now receiving substantial attention. We recently published results obtained with a combination of two drugs, lipoic acid and hydroxycitrate, targeting metabolic enzymes particularly affected in cancer: ATP citrate lyase and pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase. This treatment was as efficient as chemotherapy in the three mouse cancer models that were tested. In this work, we asked if our drug combination could be used in conjunction with standard cytotoxic chemotherapy, in particular cisplatin, to improve basic protocol efficacy. A combination of lipoic acid and hydroxycitrate was administered to mice implanted with syngeneic cancer cells, LL/2 lung carcinoma and MBT-2 bladder carcinoma, concommitantly with classical chemotherapy (cisplatin or methotrexate). We demonstrate that the triple combination lipoic acid + hydroxycitrate + cisplatin or methotrexate is more efficient than cisplatin or methotrexate used individually or the combination of lipoic acid and hydroxycitrate administered alone. Of particular note are the results obtained in the treatment of an 80 year-old female who presented with ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas accompanied by liver metastases. A treatment course using gemcitabine plus α-lipoic acid and hydroxycitrate gave highly promising results. The in vivo data, coupled with the case study results, suggest a possible advantage in using a treatment targeted at cancer metabolism in association with classical chemotherapy.

Screening of well-established drugs targeting cancer metabolism: reproducibility of the efficacy of a highly effective drug combination in mice.

Alterations in metabolic pathways are known to characterize cancer. In order to suppress cancer growth, however, multiple proteins involved in these pathways have to be targeted simultaneously. We have developed a screening method to assess the best drug combination for cancer treatment based on targeting several factors implicated in tumor specific metabolism. Following a review of the literature, we identified those enzymes known to be deregulated in cancer and established a list of sixty-two drugs targeting them. These molecules are used routinely in clinical settings for diseases other than cancer. We screened a first library in vitro against four cell lines and then evaluated the most promising binary combinations in vivo against three murine syngeneic cancer models, (LL/2, Lewis lung carcinoma; B16-F10, melanoma; and MBT-2, bladder cancer). The optimum result was obtained using a combination of α-lipoic acid and hydroxycitrate (METABLOC(TM)). In this study, a third agent was added by in vivo evaluation of a large number of combinations. The addition of octreotide strongly reduced tumor development (T/C% value of 30.2 to 34.5%; P < 0.001) in the same models and prolonged animal survival (P < 0.001) as compared to cisplatin. These results were confirmed in a different laboratory setting using a human xenograft model (NCI-H69, small cell lung cancer). None of these three molecules are known to target DNA. The effectiveness of this combination in several animal models, as well as the low toxicity of these inexpensive drugs, emphasizes the necessity of rapidly setting up a clinical trial.

Does the use of ingredients added to tobacco increase cigarette addictiveness?: a detailed analysis.

The possibility that ingredients added to tobacco contribute to the addictiveness of cigarette smoking was evaluated by comparing cessation rates of smokers of traditional blended cigarettes to those of smokers of flue-cured cigarettes. Such a comparison is a valid means of assessing cigarette ingredients as traditional blended cigarettes contain ingredients (>20), whereas flue-cured cigarettes contain no or very few ingredients. Separate analysis of 108 treatment groups and 108 control groups from randomized clinical trials of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) were performed by multiple logistic regressions. The results of these analyses demonstrated slightly higher quit rates for smokers of blended cigarettes (OR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.70-2.13 and OR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.14-1.53 for treatment and control groups, respectively). The control groups were also investigated using classification tree analysis from which no difference in quit rates were observed for smokers of either type of cigarette. Further analyses showed that studies that utilized a high level of psychological support in conjunction with NRT produced at least a two-fold increase in quit rates compared to studies that utilized a low level of psychological support. It was also demonstrated that there is a large difference when results were reported by sustained abstinence compared to point prevalence. Additional meta-analyses found the pooled OR for NRT treatment to be in exact agreement with a recent review that assessed the effectiveness of NRT. Overall these results strongly suggest that ingredients used in the manufacture of traditional blended cigarettes do not increase the inherent addictiveness of cigarettes.

Focused anesthesia interview resource to improve efficiency and quality.

In an effort to reduce costs, many hospitals may use registered nurses (RNs) with little to no formal education or training in anesthetic or surgical risk to perform anesthesia preoperative interviews (APIs). This lack of education and training can result in day of surgery delays and cancellations because of suboptimal preparation of patients for anesthesia and surgery. The Focused Anesthesia Interview Resource (FAIR) establishes minimum educational preparation for conducting APIs through educational modules and electronic triggers that prompt further questions and consultation flags or comorbidities for which an anesthesia provider is consulted. The goal of this process improvement project was to determine if fidelity to the FAIR tool enhanced the ability of RNs to perform preoperative anesthesia interviews and, if so, did this result in decreased surgical cancellations and delays? Retrospectively, we assessed completion rates of the training modules and anesthesia preoperative records as well as day of surgery cancellation and delay rates before and after the implementation of the FAIR tool. All RNs who might rotate to the API clinic (n=33) were included in the sample. Nurse fidelity to completion of the training modules was high (91%). Five hundred anesthesia interview records were randomly selected, reviewed, and completion rates scored. Our pre-/post-quasi-experimental design compared record completion rates. After the implementation of FAIR, significant improvement in identification of patients with hypertension (P<.01) and cardiac disease (P<.05) was noted. In addition, cancellation rates declined from 3.33% to 2.31% (P<.05) and first case delays decreased from 7.54% to 6.99%, although this was not statistically significant. FAIR improved preoperative record completion rates and decreased surgical cancellations, which improved perioperative quality and efficiency.

resPAINT: Accelerating Volumetric Super-Resolution Localisation Microscopy by Active Control of Probe Emission.

Points for accumulation in nanoscale topography (PAINT) allows practically unlimited measurements in localisation microscopy but is limited by background fluorescence at high probe concentrations, especially in volumetric imaging. We present reservoir-PAINT (resPAINT), which combines PAINT and active control of probe photophysics. In resPAINT, an activatable probe "reservoir" accumulates on target, enabling a 50-fold increase in localisation rate versus conventional PAINT, without compromising contrast. By combining resPAINT with large depth-of-field microscopy, we demonstrate super-resolution imaging of entire cell surfaces. We generalise the approach by implementing various switching strategies and 3D imaging techniques. Finally, we use resPAINT with a Fab to image membrane proteins, extending the operating regime of PAINT to include a wider range of biological interactions.

Does use of flue-cured rather than blended cigarettes affect international variation in mortality from lung cancer and COPD?

We compared risk of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) associated with flue-cured and blended cigarettes. Mortality and smoking data were collected for 1971-2000 by sex, age, and period for three countries with a mainly flue-cured market and four with a blended market. Epidemiological relative risk estimates for current and ex smoking were summarized. Smoking statistics and mortality were compared between flue-cured cigarette and blended cigarette countries. Unadjusted mortality rates were generally lower in blended cigarette countries early on, with the difference diminishing or reversing by the 1990s. Differences by cigarette type were rarely significant, due to variations, particularly for COPD, between countries within cigarette type. Current smoking prevalence was generally lower in blended cigarette countries in 1971-1975, with the difference reducing over time. Differences by type were never significant, with blended cigarette countries varying markedly. Ex-smoking increased over time and was lower for blended cigarette countries, generally not significantly. Consumption per smoker was somewhat lower for blended cigarette countries. Relative risk estimates for smoking, derived mainly from U.S. and UK studies, varied little by cigarette type. Conclusions based on estimated smoking-related excess mortality were similar to those based on unadjusted mortality rates. There was little indication of any difference between flue-cured and blended cigarettes on risk of lung cancer or COPD. Our approach could have detected differences of about 40% for male lung cancer, or twofold differences for females or for COPD, had they existed. Between-country differences in rates of two major diseases predominantly caused by smoking cannot materially be explained by whether the countries use flue-cured or blended cigarettes.

Meta-analysis of the relation between European and American smokeless tobacco and oral cancer.

BACKGROUND: Smokeless tobacco is often referred to as a major contributor to oral cancer. In some regions, especially Southeast Asia, the risk is difficult to quantify due to the variety of products, compositions (including non-tobacco ingredients) and usage practices involved. In Western populations, the evidence of an increased risk in smokeless tobacco users seems unclear, previous reviews having reached somewhat differing conclusions. We report a detailed quantitative review of the evidence in American and European smokeless tobacco users, and compare our findings with previous reviews and meta-analyses. METHODS: Following literature review a meta-analysis was conducted of 32 epidemiological studies published between 1920 and 2005 including tests for homogeneity and publication bias. RESULTS: Based on 38 heterogeneous study-specific estimates of the odds ratio or relative risk for smokeless tobacco use, the random-effects estimate was 1.87 (95% confidence interval 1.40-2.48). The increase was mainly evident in studies conducted before 1980. No increase was seen in studies in Scandinavia. Restricting attention to the seven estimates adjusted for smoking and alcohol eliminated both heterogeneity and excess risk (1.02; 0.82-1.28). Estimates also varied by sex (higher in females) and by study design (higher in case-control studies with hospital controls) but more clearly in studies where estimates were unadjusted, even for age. The pattern of estimates suggests some publication bias. Based on limited data specific to never smokers, the random-effects estimate was 1.94 (0.88-4.28), the eight individual estimates being heterogeneous and based on few exposed cases. CONCLUSION: Smokeless tobacco, as used in America or Europe, carries at most a minor increased risk of oral cancer. However, elevated risks in specific populations or from specific products cannot definitely be excluded.

Analysis and interpretation of transcriptomic data obtained from extended Warburg effect genes in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Many cancers adopt a metabolism that is characterized by the well-known Warburg effect (aerobic glycolysis). Recently, numerous attempts have been made to treat cancer by targeting one or more gene products involved in this pathway without notable success. This work outlines a transcriptomic approach to identify genes that are highly perturbed in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (CCRCC). METHODS: We developed a model of the extended Warburg effect and outlined the model using Cytoscape. Following this, gene expression fold changes (FCs) for tumor and adjacent normal tissue from patients with CCRCC (GSE6344) were mapped on to the network. Gene expression values with FCs of greater than two were considered as potential targets for treatment of CCRCC. RESULTS: The Cytoscape network includes glycolysis, gluconeogenesis, the pentose phosphate pathway (PPP), the TCA cycle, the serine/glycine pathway, and partial glutaminolysis and fatty acid synthesis pathways. Gene expression FCs for nine of the 10 CCRCC patients in the GSE6344 data set were consistent with a shift to aerobic glycolysis. Genes involved in glycolysis and the synthesis and transport of lactate were over-expressed, as was the gene that codes for the kinase that inhibits the conversion of pyruvate to acetyl-CoA. Interestingly, genes that code for unique proteins involved in gluconeogenesis were strongly under-expressed as was also the case for the serine/glycine pathway. These latter two results suggest that the role attributed to the M2 isoform of pyruvate kinase (PKM2), frequently the principal isoform of PK present in cancer: i.e. causing a buildup of glucose metabolites that are shunted into branch pathways for synthesis of key biomolecules, may not be operative in CCRCC. The fact that there was no increase in the expression FC of any gene in the PPP is consistent with this hypothesis. Literature protein data generally support the transcriptomic findings. CONCLUSIONS: A number of key genes have been identified that could serve as valid targets for anti-cancer pharmaceutical agents. Genes that are highly over-expressed include ENO2, HK2, PFKP, SLC2A3, PDK1, and SLC16A1. Genes that are highly under-expressed include ALDOB, PKLR, PFKFB2, G6PC, PCK1, FBP1, PC, and SUCLG1.

Enhancement of COPD biological networks using a web-based collaboration interface.

The construction and application of biological network models is an approach that offers a holistic way to understand biological processes involved in disease. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a progressive inflammatory disease of the airways for which therapeutic options currently are limited after diagnosis, even in its earliest stage. COPD network models are important tools to better understand the biological components and processes underlying initial disease development. With the increasing amounts of literature that are now available, crowdsourcing approaches offer new forms of collaboration for researchers to review biological findings, which can be applied to the construction and verification of complex biological networks. We report the construction of 50 biological network models relevant to lung biology and early COPD using an integrative systems biology and collaborative crowd-verification approach. By combining traditional literature curation with a data-driven approach that predicts molecular activities from transcriptomics data, we constructed an initial COPD network model set based on a previously published non-diseased lung-relevant model set. The crowd was given the opportunity to enhance and refine the networks on a website ( https://bionet.sbvimprover.com/) and to add mechanistic detail, as well as critically review existing evidence and evidence added by other users, so as to enhance the accuracy of the biological representation of the processes captured in the networks. Finally, scientists and experts in the field discussed and refined the networks during an in-person jamboree meeting. Here, we describe examples of the changes made to three of these networks: Neutrophil Signaling, Macrophage Signaling, and Th1-Th2 Signaling. We describe an innovative approach to biological network construction that combines literature and data mining and a crowdsourcing approach to generate a comprehensive set of COPD-relevant models that can be used to help understand the mechanisms related to lung pathobiology. Registered users of the website can freely browse and download the networks.

Tumor interstitial fluid as modulator of cancer inflammation, thrombosis, immunity and angiogenesis.

Tumor interstitial fluid (TIF) is a watery phase that accumulates inside the tumor interstitium. Its genesis and fate depend on various factors, namely tumor type, metabolic state of the tumor, expression of vascular endothelial growth factor, and absence of lymphatic system. For almost 30 years TIF remained a neglected entity until it was demonstrated that TIF, and in particular its high pressure, constitutes an important obstacle to drug delivery and immunotherapy. The present review not only summarizes the abundant literature on the processes of TIF genesis and on its effects on therapy but it also presents data that, in our opinion, point towards what is perhaps the real physiological purpose of TIF: a primitive means of providing nourishment, oxygen, cytokines and matrikines to tumor cells that furthermore promotes the invasion of the normal surrounding tissue and passive metastatization through lymphatics. It is also an inducer of inflammation through increased osmolarity due to albumin loss. Recently, a role for TIF as a possible source of biomarkers has also been suggested.

Screening for metabolic vitamin B12 deficiency by holotranscobalamin in patients suspected of vitamin B12 deficiency: a multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin B(12) deficiency occurs frequently, especially among the elderly. However, screening for vitamin B(12) deficiency is hampered by poor sensitivity of the existing total vitamin B(12) assay. Methylmalonic acid (MMA) is considered as the most representative indicator of metabolic vitamin B(12) deficiency and is used as such in this study. The aim of this study was to validate the clinical usefulness of holotranscobalamin (holoTC) as an initial screening assay for metabolic vitamin B(12) deficiency in a mixed patient population. METHODS: Three hundred and sixty blood samples were collected by five Dutch hospitals. Vitamin B(12) and holoTC in serum were measured (AxSYM; Abbott). MMA in serum was measured by tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). RESULTS: Receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis demonstrated a greater area under the curve (AUC) for holoTC than for vitamin B(12) in detecting vitamin B(12) deficiency characterized by three predefined cut-off levels of MMA. A cut-off value of 32 pmol/L of holoTC resulted in the highest sensitivity (83%) with acceptable specificity (60%) in detecting MMA concentrations above 0.45 µmol/L. The combination of vitamin B(12) and holoTC did not improve diagnostic accuracy at this cut-off level. CONCLUSIONS: HoloTC has a better diagnostic accuracy than vitamin B(12) and can replace the existing vitamin B(12) assay as a primary screening test in patients suspected of vitamin B(12) deficiency. Critical evaluation of cut-off values of holoTC indicated that a cut-off value of 32 pmol/L can be considered in screening for metabolic vitamin B(12) deficiency (defined by MMA > 0.45µmol/L) in a mixed patient population.

A combination of alpha lipoic acid and calcium hydroxycitrate is efficient against mouse cancer models: preliminary results.

The impact of metabolic dysregulation on tumor development has long been established. We have targeted two enzymes that are altered during carcinogenesis: pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH), which is down-regulated, and ATP citrate lyase, which is overexpressed in cancer cells. Alpha lipoic acid is a cofactor of PDH, while hydroxycitrate is a known inhibitor of ATP citrate lyase. Our hypothesis is that a combination of these drugs may have antitumoral potential. The efficacy of these molecules was screened in vitro by treatment of different human cancer and murine cell lines. Lipoic acid reduced the cell number by 10-50% depending on concentrations (0.1-10 microM) and cell types. Calcium hydroxycitrate reduced the cell number by 5-60% at different concentrations (10-500 microM). When hydroxycitrate and lipoic acid were used together, there was a major cytotoxic effect: complete cell death was seen following 8 microM lipoic acid and 300 microM hydroxycitrate treatment for 72 h. The combination of alpha lipoic acid and hydroxycitrate was administered to healthy mice, at doses currently utilized for other indications than cancer; no demonstrable toxicity was observed. The combination was used to treat mouse syngenic cancer models: MBT-2 bladder transitional cell carcinoma, B16-F10 melanoma and LL/2 Lewis lung carcinoma. The efficacy of this combination appears similar to conventional chemotherapy (cisplatin or 5-fluorouracil) as it resulted in significant tumor growth retardation and enhanced survival. This preliminary study suggests that this combination of drugs is efficient against cancer cell proliferation both in vitro and in vivo. A clinical trial is warranted.

Occupational acrylonitrile exposure and lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

The present work summarizes the currently available published studies on lung cancer and occupational acrylonitrile exposure. Meta-analytic methods were used to estimate the overall risk. To adjust for the healthy worker effect, rate ratio estimates based on regression analyses and ratios of standard mortality ratios were aggregated. Overall effect estimates were 0.95 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.06) and 1.25 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.43) before and after adjustment for the healthy worker effect, respectively. Therefore, a 25% increase in lung cancer risk attributable to occupational acrylonitrile exposure is suggested. Possible contribution of smoking confounding the increased risk cannot be fully excluded.

Estimating preventable fractions of disease caused by a specified biological mechanism: PAHs in smoking lung cancers as an example.

Epidemiology textbooks often interpret population attributable fractions based on 2 x 2 tables or logistic regression models of exposure-response associations as preventable fractions, i.e., as fractions of illnesses in a population that would be prevented if exposure were removed. In general, this causal interpretation is not correct, since statistical association need not indicate causation; moreover, it does not identify how much risk would be prevented by removing specific constituents of complex exposures. This article introduces and illustrates an approach to calculating useful bounds on preventable fractions, having valid causal interpretations, from the types of partial but useful molecular epidemiological and biological information often available in practice. The method applies probabilistic risk assessment concepts from systems reliability analysis, together with bounding constraints for the relationship between event probabilities and causation (such as that the probability that exposure X causes response Y cannot exceed the probability that exposure X precedes response Y, or the probability that both X and Y occur) to bound the contribution to causation from specific causal pathways. We illustrate the approach by estimating an upper bound on the contribution to lung cancer risk made by a specific, much-discussed causal pathway that links smoking to a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) (specifically, benzo(a)pyrene diol epoxide-DNA) adducts at hot spot codons at p53 in lung cells. The result is a surprisingly small preventable fraction (of perhaps 7% or less) for this pathway, suggesting that it will be important to consider other mechanisms and non-PAH constituents of tobacco smoke in designing less risky tobacco-based products.