Sociodemographic characteristics and longitudinal progression of multimorbidity: A multistate modelling analysis of a large primary care records dataset in England.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, characterised by the coexistence of multiple chronic conditions in an individual, is a rising public health concern. While much of the existing research has focused on cross-sectional patterns of multimorbidity, there remains a need to better understand the longitudinal accumulation of diseases. This includes examining the associations between important sociodemographic characteristics and the rate of progression of chronic conditions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We utilised electronic primary care records from 13.48 million participants in England, drawn from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD Aurum), spanning from 2005 to 2020 with a median follow-up of 4.71 years (IQR: 1.78, 11.28). The study focused on 5 important chronic conditions: cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), chronic kidney disease (CKD), heart failure (HF), and mental health (MH) conditions. Key sociodemographic characteristics considered include ethnicity, social and material deprivation, gender, and age. We employed a flexible spline-based parametric multistate model to investigate the associations between these sociodemographic characteristics and the rate of different disease transitions throughout multimorbidity development. Our findings reveal distinct association patterns across different disease transition types. Deprivation, gender, and age generally demonstrated stronger associations with disease diagnosis compared to ethnic group differences. Notably, the impact of these factors tended to attenuate with an increase in the number of preexisting conditions, especially for deprivation, gender, and age. For example, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI; p-value) for the association of deprivation with T2D diagnosis (comparing the most deprived quintile to the least deprived) is 1.76 ([1.74, 1.78]; p < 0.001) for those with no preexisting conditions and decreases to 0.95 ([0.75, 1.21]; p = 0.69) with 4 preexisting conditions. Furthermore, the impact of deprivation, gender, and age was typically more pronounced when transitioning from an MH condition. For instance, the HR (95% CI; p-value) for the association of deprivation with T2D diagnosis when transitioning from MH is 2.03 ([1.95, 2.12], p < 0.001), compared to transitions from CVD 1.50 ([1.43, 1.58], p < 0.001), CKD 1.37 ([1.30, 1.44], p < 0.001), and HF 1.55 ([1.34, 1.79], p < 0.001). A primary limitation of our study is that potential diagnostic inaccuracies in primary care records, such as underdiagnosis, overdiagnosis, or ascertainment bias of chronic conditions, could influence our results. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that early phases of multimorbidity development could warrant increased attention. The potential importance of earlier detection and intervention of chronic conditions is underscored, particularly for MH conditions and higher-risk populations. These insights may have important implications for the management of multimorbidity.

Ethnic inequalities in age-related patterns of multiple long-term conditions in England: Analysis of primary care and nationally representative survey data.

Little is known about the patterning of multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs) by age, ethnicity and across conceptualisations of MLTCs (e.g. MLTCs with/without mental health conditions [MHCs]). We examined ethnic inequalities in age-related patterns of MLTCs, and combinations of physical and MHCs using the English GP Patient Survey and Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We described the association between MLTCs and age using multilevel regression models adjusting for sex and area-level deprivation with patients nested within GP practices. Similar analyses were repeated for MLTCs that include MHCs. We observed ethnic inequalities from middle-age onwards such as older Pakistani, Indian, Black Caribbean and Other ethnic people had increased risk of MLTCs compared to white British people, even after adjusting for area-level deprivation. Compared to white British people, Gypsy and Irish Travellers had higher levels of MLTCs across the age groups, and Chinese people had lower levels. Pakistani and Bangladeshi people aged 50-74 years were more likely than white people to report MLTCs that included MHCs. We find clear evidence of ethnic inequalities in MLTCs. The lower prevalence of MLTCs that include MHCs among some minoritised ethnic groups may be an underestimation due to underdiagnosis and/or inadequate primary care and requires further scrutiny.

The current state of genetic risk models for the development of kidney cancer: a review and validation.

OBJECTIVE: To review the current state of genetic risk models for predicting the development of kidney cancer, by identifying and comparing the performance of published models. METHODS: Risk models were identified from a recent systematic review and the Cancer-PRS web directory. A narrative synthesis of the models, previous validation studies and related genome-wide association studies (GWAS) was carried out. The discrimination and calibration of the identified models was then assessed and compared in the UK Biobank (UKB) cohort (cases, 452; controls, 487 925). RESULTS: A total of 39 genetic models predicting the development of kidney cancer were identified and 31 were validated in the UKB. Several of the genetic-only models (seven of 25) and most of the mixed genetic-phenotypic models (five of six) had some discriminatory ability (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve >0.5) in this cohort. In general, models containing a larger number of genetic variants identified in GWAS performed better than models containing a small number of variants associated with known causal pathways. However, the performance of the included models was consistently poorer than genetic risk models for other cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Although there is potential for genetic models to identify those at highest risk of developing kidney cancer, their performance is poorer than the best genetic risk models for other cancers. This may be due to the comparatively small number of genetic variants associated with kidney cancer identified in GWAS to date. The development of improved genetic risk models for kidney cancer is dependent on the identification of more variants associated with this disease. Whether these will have utility within future kidney cancer screening pathways is yet to determined.

Development and validation of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score.

BACKGROUND: Health services have failed to respond to the pressures of multimorbidity. Improved measures of multimorbidity are needed for conducting research, planning services and allocating resources. METHODS: We modelled the association between 37 morbidities and 3 key outcomes (primary care consultations, unplanned hospital admission, death) at 1 and 5 years. We extracted development (n = 300 000) and validation (n = 150 000) samples from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We constructed a general-outcome multimorbidity score by averaging the standardized weights of the separate outcome scores. We compared performance with the Charlson Comorbidity Index. RESULTS: Models that included all 37 conditions were acceptable predictors of general practitioner consultations (C-index 0.732, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.731-0.734), unplanned hospital admission (C-index 0.742, 95% CI 0.737-0.747) and death at 1 year (C-index 0.912, 95% CI 0.905-0.918). Models reduced to the 20 conditions with the greatest combined prevalence/weight showed similar predictive ability (C-indices 0.727, 95% CI 0.725-0.728; 0.738, 95% CI 0.732-0.743; and 0.910, 95% CI 0.904-0.917, respectively). They also predicted 5-year outcomes similarly for consultations and death (C-indices 0.735, 95% CI 0.734-0.736, and 0.889, 95% CI 0.885-0.892, respectively) but performed less well for admissions (C-index 0.708, 95% CI 0.705-0.712). The performance of the general-outcome score was similar to that of the outcome-specific models. These models performed significantly better than those based on the Charlson Comorbidity Index for consultations (C-index 0.691, 95% CI 0.690-0.693) and admissions (C-index 0.703, 95% CI 0.697-0.709) and similarly for mortality (C-index 0.907, 95% CI 0.900-0.914). INTERPRETATION: The Cambridge Multimorbidity Score is robust and can be either tailored or not tailored to specific health outcomes. It will be valuable to those planning clinical services, policymakers allocating resources and researchers seeking to account for the effect of multimorbidity.

Using Ancillary Sociodemographic Data to Identify Sexual Minority Adults Among Those Responding "Something Else" or "Don't Know" to Sexual Orientation Questions.

BACKGROUND: General population surveys are increasingly offering broader response options for questions on sexual orientation-for example, not only gay or lesbian, but also "something else" (SE) and "don't know" (DK). However, these additional response options are potentially confusing for those who may not know what the terms mean. Researchers studying sexual orientation-based disparities face difficult methodological trade-offs regarding how best to classify respondents identifying with the SE and DK categories. OBJECTIVES: Develop respondent-level probabilities of sexual minority orientation without excluding or misclassifying the potentially ambiguous SE and DK responses. Compare 3 increasingly inclusive analytic approaches for estimating health disparities using a single item: (a) omitting SE and DK respondents; (b) classifying SE as sexual minority and omitting DK; and (c) a new approach classifying only SE and DK respondents with >50% predicted probabilities of being sexual minorities as sexual minority. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used the sociodemographic information and follow-up questions for SE and DK respondents in the 2013-2014 National Health Interview Survey to generate predicted probabilities of identifying as a sexual minority adult. RESULTS: About 94% of the 144 SE respondents and 20% of the 310 DK respondents were predicted to identify as a sexual minority adult, with higher probabilities for younger, wealthier, non-Hispanic white, and urban-dwelling respondents. Using a more specific definition of sexual minority orientation improved the precision of health and health care disparity estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Predicted probabilities of sexual minority orientation may be used in this and other surveys to improve representation and categorization of those who identify as a sexual minority adult.

Current and future cardiovascular disease risk assessment in the European Union: an international comparative study.

Background: Risk assessment is central to primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but there remains a need to better understand the use of evidence-based interventions in practice. This study examines: (i) the policies and guidelines for risk assessment in Europe, (ii) the use of risk assessment tools in clinical practice and (iii) the barriers to, and facilitators of, risk assessment. Methods: Data were collected from academics, clinicians and policymakers in an online questionnaire targeted at experts from all European Union member states, and in 8 in-depth country case studies that were developed from a targeted literature review and 36 interviews. Results: The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) produces European guidelines for CVD risk assessment and recommends the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation tool, which is the most widely used risk assessment tool in Europe. The use of risk assessment tools is variable. Lack of time and resources are important barriers. Integrating risk assessment tools into clinical systems and providing financial incentives to carry out risk assessments could increase implementation. Novel biomarkers would need to be supported by evidence of their clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness to be introduced in clinical practice. These findings were consistent across Europe. Conclusions: Efforts to improve the assessment of CVD risk in clinical practice should be carried out by or in collaboration with, the ESC. Increasing the use of existing risk assessment tools is likely to offer greater gains in primary prevention than the development of novel biomarkers.

Do Differential Response Rates to Patient Surveys Between Organizations Lead to Unfair Performance Comparisons?: Evidence From the English Cancer Patient Experience Survey.

BACKGROUND: Patient surveys typically have variable response rates between organizations, leading to concerns that such differences may affect the validity of performance comparisons. OBJECTIVE: To explore the size and likely sources of associations between hospital-level survey response rates and patient experience. RESEARCH DESIGN, SUBJECTS, AND MEASURES: Cross-sectional mail survey including 60 patient experience items sent to 101,771 cancer survivors recently treated by 158 English NHS hospitals. Age, sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, clinical diagnosis, hospital type, and region were available for respondents and nonrespondents. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 67% (range, 39% to 77% between hospitals). Hospitals with higher response rates had higher scores for all items (Spearman correlation range, 0.03-0.44), particularly questions regarding hospital-level administrative processes, for example, procedure cancellations or medical note availability.From multivariable analysis, associations between individual patient experience and hospital-level response rates were statistically significant (P<0.05) for 53/59 analyzed questions, decreasing to 37/59 after adjusting for case-mix, and 25/59 after further adjusting for hospital-level characteristics.Predicting responses of nonrespondents, and re-estimating hypothetical hospital scores assuming a 100% response rate, we found that currently low performing hospitals would have attained even lower scores. Overall nationwide attainment would have decreased slightly to that currently observed. CONCLUSIONS: Higher response rate hospitals have more positive experience scores, and this is only partly explained by patient case-mix. High response rates may be a marker of efficient hospital administration, and higher quality that should not, therefore, be adjusted away in public reporting. Although nonresponse may result in slightly overestimating overall national levels of performance, it does not appear to meaningfully bias comparisons of case-mix-adjusted hospital results.

Informal carers' health-related quality of life and patient experience in primary care: evidence from 195,364 carers in England responding to a national survey.

BACKGROUND: We aim to describe the health-related quality of life of informal carers and their experiences of primary care. METHODS: Responses from the 2011-12 English General Practice Patient Survey, including 195,364 informal carers, were analysed using mixed effect logistic regressions controlling for age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation to describe carer health-related quality of life (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain, and anxiety/depression, measured using EQ-5D) and primary care experience (access, continuity and communication). RESULTS: Informal carers reported poorer health-related quality of life than non-carers of similar age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation. Increasing caring commitment was associated with worse EQ-5D scores, with carers of 50+ hours a week scoring 0.05 points lower than non-carers (95 % CI 0.05 to 0.04), equivalent to 18 fewer days of full health annually. Considering each domain of EQ-5D separately, carers of 50+ hours/week were more likely to report pain OR = 1.53 (1.50-1.57), p < 0.0001, and anxiety/depression OR = 1.69 (1.66-1.73), p < 0.0001, than non-carers. Younger carers scored lower on EQ-5D than non-carer peers but the converse was true among over-85s. In the most deprived areas carers reported the equivalent of 37 fewer days of full health annually than carers in the most affluent areas. On average, carers reported poorer patient experiences in all areas of primary care than non-carers (odds ratios 0.84-0.97), with this difference being most marked in the domain of access. CONCLUSIONS: Informal carers experience a double disadvantage of poorer health-related quality of life and poorer patient experience in primary care. We find no evidence for health benefits of caregiving. We recommend physicians identify and treat carer health problems, including pain and anxiety/depression, particularly among young, deprived and high time-commitment carers. Improving patient experience for carers, including access to primary care, should be a priority.

Variation in promptness of presentation among 10,297 patients subsequently diagnosed with one of 18 cancers: evidence from a National Audit of Cancer Diagnosis in Primary Care.

Cancer awareness public campaigns aim to shorten the interval between symptom onset and presentation to a doctor (the 'patient interval'). Appreciating variation in promptness of presentation can help to better target awareness campaigns. We explored variation in patient intervals recorded in consultations with general practitioners among 10,297 English patients subsequently diagnosed with one of 18 cancers (bladder, brain, breast, colorectal, endometrial, leukaemia, lung, lymphoma, melanoma, multiple myeloma, oesophageal, oro-pharyngeal, ovarian, pancreatic, prostate, renal, stomach, and unknown primary) using data from of the National Audit of Cancer Diagnosis in Primary Care (2009-2010). Proportions of patients with 'prompt'/'non-prompt' presentation (0-14 or 15+ days from symptom onset, respectively) were described and respective odds ratios were calculated by multivariable logistic regression. The overall median recorded patient interval was 10 days (IQR 0-38). Of all patients, 56% presented promptly. Prompt presentation was more frequent among older or housebound patients (p < 0.001). Prompt presentation was most frequent for bladder and renal cancer (74% and 70%, respectively); and least frequent for oro-pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer (34% and 39%, respectively, p <.001). Using lung cancer as reference, the adjusted odds ratios of non-prompt presentation were 2.26 (95% confidence interval 1.57-3.25) and 0.42 (0.34-0.52) for oro-pharyngeal and bladder cancer, respectively. Sensitivity analyses produced similar findings. Routinely recorded patient interval data reveal considerable variation in the promptness of presentation. These findings can help to prioritise public awareness initiatives and research focusing on symptoms of cancers associated with greater risk of non-prompt presentation, such as oro-pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer.

Cancer patient experience, hospital performance and case mix: evidence from England.

UNLABELLED:   AIMS: This study aims to explore differences between crude and case mix-adjusted estimates of hospital performance with respect to the experience of cancer patients. MATERIALS & METHODS: This study analyzed the English 2011/2012 Cancer Patient Experience Survey covering all English National Health Service hospitals providing cancer treatment (n = 160). Logistic regression analysis was used to predict hospital performance for each of the 64 evaluative questions, adjusting for age, gender, ethnic group and cancer diagnosis. The degree of reclassification was explored across three categories (bottom 20%, middle 60% and top 20% of hospitals). RESULTS: There was high concordance between crude and adjusted ranks of hospitals (median Kendall's τ = 0.84; interquartile range: 0.82-0.88). Across all questions, a median of 5.0% (eight) of hospitals (interquartile range: 3.8-6.4%; six to ten hospitals) moved out of the extreme performance categories after case mix adjustment. CONCLUSION: In this context, patient case mix has only a small impact on measured hospital performance for cancer patient experience.

Using Routine Data to Improve Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Health.

The collection of sexual orientation in routine data, generated either from contacts with health services or in infrastructure data resources designed and collected for policy and research, has improved substantially in the United Kingdom in the last decade. Inclusive measures of gender and transgender status are now also beginning to be collected. This viewpoint considers current data collections, and their strengths and limitations, including accessing data, sample size, measures of sexual orientation and gender, measures of health outcomes, and longitudinal follow-up. The available data are considered within both sociopolitical and biomedical models of health for individuals who are lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, or of other identities including nonbinary (LGBTQ+). Although most individual data sets have some methodological limitations, when put together, there is now a real depth of routine data for LGBTQ+ health research. This paper aims to provide a framework for how these data can be used to improve health and health care outcomes. Four practical analysis approaches are introduced-descriptive epidemiology, risk prediction, intervention development, and impact evaluation-and are discussed as frameworks for translating data into research with the potential to improve health.

Identifying where hospital and community trusts are managing general practices in England: a service mapping study.

BACKGROUND: Organisations providing secondary care in the NHS in England have historically not also provided primary health care, but this is changing. Data on where this kind of 'vertical integration' is happening is lacking, making it difficult to evaluate its impact. AIM: To compile a comprehensive list of instances of secondary care trusts running general practices in England, to enable evaluation of the impact of such arrangements. DESIGN AND SETTING: Review, collation, synthesis and analysis of published information describing secondary and primary care provision in the NHS in England in March 2021. METHOD: Desk-based collection, including hand-searching, of secondary care organisations' statutory annual reports. Triangulation via comparison with national data on general practices, the general practice workforce and practice contracts. RESULTS: It was possible to construct a database of all instances of trusts running general practices in England as at end-March 2021. We have identified 26 trusts running a total of 85 general practices, operating across a total of 116 practice sites. These practices have on average fewer patients and fewer GP full-time equivalents than other general practices, and before becoming vertically integrated were performing less well in the Quality and Outcomes Framework. CONCLUSION: We recommend that national statistics recording the details of general practices contracting with the NHS should include whether each practice is owned by another organisation and, whether that is an NHS trust, another public body or a private organisation. Such data are required to enable evaluation of the impacts of this kind of vertical integration.

Wellbeing Impact Study of High-Speed 2 (WISH2): Protocol for a mixed-methods examination of the impact of major transport infrastructure development on mental health and wellbeing.

Although research has demonstrated that transport infrastructure development can have positive and negative health-related impacts, most of this research has not considered mental health and wellbeing separately from physical health. There is also limited understanding of whether and how any effects might be experienced differently across population groups, whether this differs according to the stage of development (e.g. planning, construction), and how changes to planned infrastructure may affect mental health and wellbeing. This paper presents a protocol for the Wellbeing Impact Study of HS2 (WISH2), which seeks to address these questions using a high-speed rail development in the UK as an applied example. WISH2 is a 10-year, integrated, longitudinal, mixed-methods project using general practices (primary medical care providers in the UK) as an avenue for participant recruitment and for providing a geographically defined population for which aggregated data on mental health indicators are available. The research comprises: (i) a combined longitudinal and repeated cross-sectional cohort study involving multiple waves of survey data collection and data from medical records; (ii) longitudinal, semi-structured interviews and focus groups with residents and community stakeholders from exposed areas; (iii) analysis of administrative data aggregated at the general practice population level; and (iv) health economic analysis of mental health and wellbeing impacts. The study findings will support the development of strategies to reduce negative impacts and/or enhance positive mental health and wellbeing impacts of high-speed rail developments and other large-scale infrastructure projects.

Breast, Prostate, Colorectal, and Lung Cancer Incidence and Risk Factors in Women Who Have Sex with Women and Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Analysis Using UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about cancer incidence for lesbian, gay and bisexual women and men, although the prevalence of cancer risk factors may be higher. AIM: To describe cancer incidence for four common cancers (breast, lung, colorectal and prostate). METHODS: This project used UK Biobank participant data. We explored risk factor prevalence (age, deprivation, ethnicity, smoking, alcohol intake, obesity, parity, and sexual history), and calculated cancer risk, for six groups defined based on sexual history; women who have sex exclusively with men (WSEM), or women (WSEW), women who have sex with men and women (WSWM); men who have sex exclusively with women (MSEW), or men (MSEM), and men who have sex with women and men (MSWM). RESULTS: WSEW, WSWM, MSEM, and MSMW were younger, more likely to smoke, and to live in more deprived neighbourhoods. We found no evidence of an association between sexual history and breast, colorectal, or prostate cancer in age-adjusted models. Lung cancer incidence was higher for WSWM compared with WSEM, HR (95%CI) 1.78 (1.28-2.48), p = 0.0005, and MSWM compared with MSEW, 1.43 (1.03-1.99), p = 0.031; after adjustment for smoking, this difference was no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS: Sexual minority groups have a higher risk for lung cancer, due to greater exposure to smoking.

Progression of stroke risk in patients aged <65 years diagnosed with atrial fibrillation: a cohort study in general practice.

BACKGROUND: As a result of new technologies, atrial fibrillation (AF) is more likely to be diagnosed in people aged <65 years. AIM: To investigate the risk of someone diagnosed with AF aged <65 years developing an indication for anticoagulation before they reach 65 years. DESIGN AND SETTING: Population-based cohort study of patients from English practices using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a primary care database of electronic medical records. METHOD: The study included patients aged <65 years newly diagnosed with AF. The CHA2DS2-VASc score was derived at time of diagnosis based on patients' medical records. Patients not eligible for anticoagulation were followed up until they became eligible or turned 65 years old. The primary outcome of interest was development of a risk factor for stroke in AF. RESULTS: Among 18 178 patients aged <65 years diagnosed with AF, 9188 (50.5%) were eligible for anticoagulation at the time of diagnosis. Among the 8990 patients not eligible for anticoagulation, 1688 (18.8%) developed a risk factor during follow-up before reaching 65 years of age or leaving the cohort for other reasons, at a rate of 6.1 per 100 patient-years. Hypertension and heart failure were the most common risk factors to occur, with rates of 2.65 (95% CI = 2.47 to 2.84) and 1.58 (95% CI = 1.45 to 1.72) per 100 patient-years, respectively. The rate of new diabetes was 0.95 (95% CI = 0.85 to 1.06) per 100 patient-years. CONCLUSION: People aged <65 years with AF are at higher risk of developing hypertension, heart failure, and diabetes than the general population, so may warrant regular review to identify new occurrence of such risk factors.

Demographic characteristics, long-term health conditions and healthcare experiences of 6333 trans and non-binary adults in England: nationally representative evidence from the 2021 GP Patient Survey.

OBJECTIVE: In order to address the lack of data on the health and healthcare needs of trans and non-binary adults, NHS England includes questions asking about both gender and trans status in its surveys to support quality improvement programmes.We used self-reported data from the GP Patient Survey to answer the research question: what are the demographic characteristics, health conditions and healthcare experiences of trans and non-binary adults in England? DESIGN/SETTING: Nationally representative, population-based cross-sectional survey in England with survey data collection from January to March 2021. PARTICIPANTS: 840 691 survey respondents including 6333 trans and non-binary adults. OUTCOMES: We calculated weighted descriptive statistics, and using logistic regression explored 15 long-term physical and mental health conditions, and 18 patient experience items, covering overall experience, access, communication and continuity. RESULTS: Trans and non-binary adults were younger, more likely to be from Asian, black, mixed or other ethnic groups and more likely to live in more deprived parts of the country. Age-specific patterns of long-term conditions were broadly similar among trans and non-binary adults compared with all other survey respondents, with some variation by condition. Overall, inequalities in long-term health conditions were largest for autism: OR (95% CI), 5.8 (5.0 to 6.6), dementia: 3.1 (2.5 to 3.9), learning disabilities: 2.8 (2.4 to 3.2) and mental health: 2.0 (1.9 to 2.2), with variation by age. In healthcare experience, disparities are much greater for interpersonal communication (OR for reporting a positive experience, range 0.4 to 0.7 across items) than access (OR range 0.8 to 1.2). Additionally, trans and non-binary adults report much higher preference for continuity 1.7 (1.6 to 1.8), with no evidence of any differences in being able to see or speak to a preferred general practitioner. CONCLUSION: This research adds up to date evidence about population demographics, health and healthcare needs to support healthcare improvement for trans and non-binary adults.

Vertical integration of general practices with acute hospitals in England: rapid impact evaluation.

Background: Vertical integration means merging organisations that operate at different stages along the patient pathway. We focus on acute hospitals running primary care medical practices. Evidence is scarce concerning the impact on use of health-care services and patient experience. Objectives: To assess the impact of vertical integration on use of hospital services, service delivery and patient experience and whether patients with multiple long-term conditions are affected differently from others. Design: Rapid, mixed methods evaluation with four work packages: (1) review of NHS trust annual reports and other sources to understand the scale of vertical integration across England; (2) development of the statistical analysis; (3) analysis of national survey data on patient experience, and national data on use of hospital services over the 2 years preceding and following vertical integration, comparing vertically integrated practices with a variety of control practices; and (4) focus groups and interviews with staff and patients across three case study sites to explore the impact of vertical integration on patient experience of care. Results: At 31 March 2021, 26 NHS trusts were in vertically integrated organisations, running 85 general practices across 116 practice sites. The earliest vertical integration between trusts and general practices was in 2015; a mean of 3.3 practices run by each trust (range 1-12). On average, integrated practices have fewer patients, are slightly more likely to be in the most deprived decile of areas, are more likely to hold an alternative provider medical services contract and have worse Quality and Outcomes Framework scores compared with non-integrated practices. Vertical integration is associated with statistically significant, modest reductions in rates of accident and emergency department attendances: 2% reduction (incidence rate ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 0.99; p < 0.0001); outpatient attendances: 1% reduction (incidence rate ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.00; p = 0.0061), emergency inpatient admissions: 3% reduction (incidence rate ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.95 to 0.99; p = 0.0062) and emergency readmissions: 5% reduction (incidence rate ratio 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.00; p = 0.039), with no impact on length of stay, overall inpatient admissions or inpatient admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions. The falls in accident and emergency department and outpatient attendance rates are temporary. Focus groups and interviews with staff (N = 22) and interviews with patients (N = 14) showed that with vertical integration, health service improvements are introduced following a period of cultural interchange. Patients with multiple long-term conditions continue to encounter 'navigation work' choosing and accessing health-care provision, with diminishing continuity of care. Limitations: In the quantitative analysis, we could not replicate the counterfactual of what would have happened in those specific locations had practices not merged with trusts. There was imbalance across three case study sites with regard to staff and patients recruited for interview, and the latter were drawn from patient participation groups who may not be representative of local populations. Conclusions: Vertical integration can lead to modest reductions in use of hospital services and has minor or no impact on patient experience of care. Our analysis does not reveal a case for widespread roll-out of the approach. Future research: Further quantitative follow-up of the longer-term impact of vertical integration on hospital usage and more extensive interviewing of patients and their carers about patient experiences of navigating care. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (BRACE Project no. 16/138/31) and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 11, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Sexual Minority Adults in England Have Greater Odds of Chronic Mental Health Problems: Variation by Sexual Orientation, Age, Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Status.

Purpose: Sexual minority adults report worse mental health than heterosexual peers, although few empirical studies are large enough to measure variation in these disparities by sexual orientation, age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status (SES). We investigate chronic mental health problems among sexual minority adults. Methods: Sex-disaggregated logistic regressions examined associations between self-reported chronic mental health problems and sexual orientation, age, ethnicity, and SES in a 2015-2017 dataset from the nationally representative English General Practice Patient Survey data (n = 1,341,339). Results: Bisexual adults, especially young bisexual females, reported the highest rates of chronic mental health problems. Sexual minority females 18-24 years of age had five times the odds of reporting chronic mental health problems of their heterosexual peers, with 32% of sexual minority females 18-24 years of age reporting the outcome. Sexual minority identity was also strongly associated with chronic mental health problems for adults who were White and lived in more affluent areas. Conclusion: The very high odds of chronic mental health problems among bisexual adults, especially younger bisexual females, may reflect simultaneous isolation from sexual minority and heterosexual communities. Elevated odds at younger ages may reflect disproportionate social media use and bullying. It is plausible that those who are subject to minority stress associated with SES and ethnicity may develop resilience strategies that they then apply to sexual minority stress. The results suggest that sexual minority identity is a source of minority stress, even for those who are affluent. Clinicians should be alert to the need to support the specific mental health concerns of their sexual minority patients.

Using UK Biobank for sexual minority health research.

Aim: Despite poorer health and healthcare outcomes experienced by lesbian, gay and bisexual adults, data for research to characterize and address these disparities remain limited. Patients & methods: We describe sexual history information from 502,543 UK Biobank participants recruited between 2006 and 2010, as sexual identity was not collected from the cohort at baseline, and compare this with sexual history and sexual identity responses to the third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (NATSAL-3), collected between 2010 and 2012. Results: After exclusions, 700 (0.3%) women and 2112 (1.2%) men in UK Biobank reported a history of exclusively same-sex sex and 5162 (2.3%) women and 4275 (2.3%) men reported a history of sex with both women and men; estimates were consistent with, although slightly lower those from NATSAL-3. Conclusion: UK Biobank is an important resource for sexual minority health research.

Lay abstract Although lesbian, gay and bisexual adults experience poorer health and healthcare outcomes, data for researchers to use to understand and address these disparities remain limited. UK Biobank is a research study which recruited, and is now following up, over half a million adults aged between 40 and 70. When participants were recruited they were not asked about sexual identity but they were asked about their history of sex with both women and men. In this research, we compared the responses to this question in UK Biobank to responses from another survey, the third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles, and found the estimates were broadly comparable. We also provide some advice to researchers on how to use UK Biobank in future research to explore disparities in health outcomes experienced by lesbian, gay and bisexual adults.

Anticoagulation trends in adults aged 65 years and over with atrial fibrillation: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of anticoagulation prescription and persistence for those aged ≥65 years with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: Descriptive cohort study using electronic general practice records of patients in England, who attended an influenza vaccination aged ≥65 years and were diagnosed with AF between 2008 and 2018. Patients were stratified by 10-year age group and year of diagnosis. Proportion anticoagulated, type of anticoagulation (direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) or warfarin) initiated at diagnosis and persistence with anticoagulation over time are reported. RESULTS: 42 290 patients (49% female), aged 65-74 (n=11 722), 75-84 (n=19 055) and 85+ (n=11 513) years at AF diagnosis are included. Prescription of anticoagulation at diagnosis increased over the time period from 55% to 86% in people aged 65-74 years, from 54% to 86% in people aged 75-84 years and from 27% to 75% in people aged 85 years and over. By 2018, 92% of patients with newly diagnosed AF were started on a DOAC. Survivor function for 5-year persistence in patients prescribed DOAC was 0.80 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.82) and for warfarin 0.71 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.72). Survivor function for any anticoagulation at 5 years was 0.79 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.81), 0.73 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.75) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.64) for people aged 65-74, 75-84 and 85+ years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of anticoagulation in AF in those aged ≥65 years have increased from 2008 to 2018, over which time period there has been a shift from initiating anticoagulation with warfarin to DOAC. Persistence with anticoagulation is higher in people on DOACs than on warfarin and in people aged <85 years.