Estimating local outbreak risks and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in age-structured populations: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including school closures, workplace closures and social distancing policies have been employed worldwide to reduce transmission and prevent local outbreaks. However, transmission and the effectiveness of NPIs depend strongly on age-related factors including heterogeneities in contact patterns and pathophysiology. Here, using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we develop a branching process model for assessing the risk that an infectious case arriving in a new location will initiate a local outbreak, accounting for the age distribution of the host population. We show that the risk of a local outbreak depends on the age of the index case, and we explore the effects of NPIs targeting individuals of different ages. Social distancing policies that reduce contacts outside of schools and workplaces and target individuals of all ages are predicted to reduce local outbreak risks substantially, whereas school closures have a more limited impact. In the scenarios considered here, when different NPIs are used in combination the risk of local outbreaks can be eliminated. We also show that heightened surveillance of infectious individuals reduces the level of NPIs required to prevent local outbreaks, particularly if enhanced surveillance of symptomatic cases is combined with efforts to find and isolate nonsymptomatic infected individuals. Our results reflect real-world experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, during which combinations of intense NPIs have reduced transmission and the risk of local outbreaks. The general modelling framework that we present can be used to estimate local outbreak risks during future epidemics of a range of pathogens, accounting fully for age-related factors.

From GWASs toward Mechanistic Understanding with Case Studies in Dermatogenetics.

Many human skin diseases result from the complex interplay of genetic and environmental mechanisms that are largely unknown. GWASs have yielded insight into the genetic aspect of complex disease by highlighting regions of the genome or specific genetic variants associated with disease. Leveraging this information to identify causal genes and cell types will provide insight into fundamental biology, inform diagnostics, and aid drug discovery. However, the etiological mechanisms from genetic variant to disease are still unestablished in most cases. There now exists an unprecedented wealth of data and computational methods for variant interpretation in a functional context. It can be challenging to decide where to start owing to a lack of consensus on the best way to identify causal genetic mechanisms. This article highlights 3 key aspects of genetic variant interpretation: prioritizing causal genes, cell types, and pathways. We provide a practical overview of the main methods and datasets, giving examples from recent atopic dermatitis studies to provide a blueprint for variant interpretation. A collection of resources, including brief description and links to the packages and web tools, is provided for researchers looking to start in silico follow-up genetic analysis of associated genetic variants.