Variable effects of substrate colour and microtexture on sessile marine taxa in Australian estuaries.

Concrete infrastructure in coastal waters is increasing. While adding complex habitat and manipulating concrete mixtures to enhance biodiversity have been studied, field investigations of sub-millimetre-scale complexity and substrate colour are lacking. Here, the interacting effects of 'colour' (white, grey, black) and 'microtexture' (smooth, 0.5 mm texture) on colonisation were assessed at three sites in Australia. In Townsville, no effects of colour or microtexture were observed. In Sydney, spirorbid polychaetes occupied more space on smooth than textured tiles, but there was no effect of microtexture on serpulid polychaetes, bryozoans and algae. In Melbourne, barnacles were more abundant on black than white tiles, while serpulid polychaetes showed opposite patterns and ascidians did not vary with treatments. These results suggest that microtexture and colour can facilitate colonisation of some taxa. The context-dependency of the results shows that inclusion of these factors into marine infrastructure designs needs to be carefully considered.

Concurrent invasions of European starlings in Australia and North America reveal population-specific differentiation in shared genomic regions.

A species' success during the invasion of new areas hinges on an interplay between the demographic processes common to invasions and the specific ecological context of the novel environment. Evolutionary genetic studies of invasive species can investigate how genetic bottlenecks and ecological conditions shape genetic variation in invasions, and our study pairs two invasive populations that are hypothesized to be from the same source population to compare how each population evolved during and after introduction. Invasive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) established populations in both Australia and North America in the 19th century. Here, we compare whole-genome sequences among native and independently introduced European starling populations to determine how demographic processes interact with rapid evolution to generate similar genetic patterns in these recent and replicated invasions. Demographic models indicate that both invasive populations experienced genetic bottlenecks as expected based on invasion history, and we find that specific genomic regions have differentiated even on this short evolutionary timescale. Despite genetic bottlenecks, we suggest that genetic drift alone cannot explain differentiation in at least two of these regions. The demographic boom intrinsic to many invasions as well as potential inversions may have led to high population-specific differentiation, although the patterns of genetic variation are also consistent with the hypothesis that this infamous and highly mobile invader adapted to novel selection (e.g., extrinsic factors). We use targeted sampling of replicated invasions to identify and evaluate support for multiple, interacting evolutionary mechanisms that lead to differentiation during the invasion process.

Whole genome resequencing reveals signatures of rapid selection in a virus-affected commercial fishery.

Infectious diseases are recognized as one of the greatest global threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Consequently, there is a growing urgency to understand the speed at which adaptive phenotypes can evolve and spread in natural populations to inform future management. Here we provide evidence of rapid genomic changes in wild Australian blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) following a major population crash associated with an infectious disease. Genome scans on H. rubra were performed using pooled whole genome resequencing data from commercial fishing stocks varying in historical exposure to haliotid herpesvirus-1 (HaHV-1). Approximately 25,000 single nucleotide polymorphism loci associated with virus exposure were identified, many of which mapped to genes known to contribute to HaHV-1 immunity in the New Zealand paua (Haliotis iris) and herpesvirus response pathways in haliotids and other animal systems. These findings indicate genetic changes across a single generation in H. rubra fishing stocks decimated by HaHV-1, with stock recovery potentially determined by rapid evolutionary changes leading to virus resistance. This is a novel example of apparently rapid adaptation in natural populations of a nonmodel marine organism, highlighting the pace at which selection can potentially act to counter disease in wildlife communities.

Influence of offshore oil and gas structures on seascape ecological connectivity.

Offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, wells and related fixed structures supporting the oil and gas (O&G) industry are prevalent in oceans across the globe, with many approaching the end of their operational life and requiring decommissioning. Although structures can possess high ecological diversity and productivity, information on how they interact with broader ecological processes remains unclear. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the role of O&G infrastructure in maintaining, altering or enhancing ecological connectivity with natural marine habitats. There is a paucity of studies on the subject with only 33 papers specifically targeting connectivity and O&G structures, although other studies provide important related information. Evidence for O&G structures facilitating vertical and horizontal seascape connectivity exists for larvae and mobile adult invertebrates, fish and megafauna; including threatened and commercially important species. The degree to which these structures represent a beneficial or detrimental net impact remains unclear, is complex and ultimately needs more research to determine the extent to which natural connectivity networks are conserved, enhanced or disrupted. We discuss the potential impacts of different decommissioning approaches on seascape connectivity and identify, through expert elicitation, critical knowledge gaps that, if addressed, may further inform decision making for the life cycle of O&G infrastructure, with relevance for other industries (e.g. renewables). The most highly ranked critical knowledge gap was a need to understand how O&G structures modify and influence the movement patterns of mobile species and dispersal stages of sessile marine species. Understanding how different decommissioning options affect species survival and movement was also highly ranked, as was understanding the extent to which O&G structures contribute to extending species distributions by providing rest stops, foraging habitat, and stepping stones. These questions could be addressed with further dedicated studies of animal movement in relation to structures using telemetry, molecular techniques and movement models. Our review and these priority questions provide a roadmap for advancing research needed to support evidence-based decision making for decommissioning O&G infrastructure.

Signatures of selection in a recent invasion reveal adaptive divergence in a highly vagile invasive species.

A detailed understanding of population genetics in invasive populations helps us to identify drivers of successful alien introductions. Here, we investigate putative signals of selection in Australian populations of invasive common starlings, Sturnus vulgaris, and seek to understand how these have been influenced by introduction history. We used reduced representation sequencing to determine population structure, and identify Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) that are putatively under selection. We found that since their introduction into Australia, starling populations have become genetically differentiated despite the potential for high levels of dispersal, and that starlings have responded to selective pressures imposed by a wide range of environmental conditions across their geographic range. Isolation by distance appears to have played a strong role in determining genetic substructure across the starling's Australian range. Analyses of candidate SNPs that are putatively under selection indicated that aridity, precipitation and temperature may be important factors driving adaptive variation across the starling's invasive range in Australia. However, we also noted that the historic introduction regime may leave footprints on sites flagged as being under adaptive selection, and encourage critical interpretation of selection analyses in non-native populations.

Ocean warming threatens key trophic interactions supporting a commercial fishery in a climate change hotspot.

Worldwide, rising ocean temperatures are causing declines and range shifts in marine species. The direct effects of climate change on the biology of marine organisms are often well documented; yet, knowledge on the indirect effects, particularly through trophic interactions, is largely lacking. We provide evidence of ocean warming decoupling critical trophic interactions supporting a commercially important mollusc in a climate change hotspot. Dietary assessments of the Australian blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) indicate primary dependency on a widespread macroalgal species (Phyllospora comosa) which we show to be in state of decline due to ocean warming, resulting in abalone biomass reductions. Niche models suggest further declines in P. comosa over the coming decades and ongoing risks to H. rubra. This study highlights the importance of studies from climate change hotspots and understanding the interplay between climate and trophic interactions when determining the likely response of marine species to environmental changes.

Local and regional scale habitat heterogeneity contribute to genetic adaptation in a commercially important marine mollusc (Haliotis rubra) from southeastern Australia.

Characterising adaptive genetic divergence among conspecific populations is often achieved by studying genetic variation across defined environmental gradients. In marine systems this is challenging due to a paucity of information on habitat heterogeneity at local and regional scales and a dependency on sampling regimes that are typically limited to broad longitudinal and latitudinal environmental gradients. As a result, the spatial scales at which selection processes operate and the environmental factors that contribute to genetic adaptation in marine systems are likely to be unclear. In this study we explore patterns of adaptive genetic structuring in a commercially- harvested abalone species (Haliotis rubra) from southeastern Australia, using a panel of genome-wide SNP markers (5,239 SNPs), and a sampling regime informed by marine LiDAR bathymetric imagery and 20-year hindcasted oceanographic models. Despite a lack of overall genetic structure across the sampling distribution, significant genotype associations with heterogeneous habitat features were observed at local and regional spatial scales, including associations with wave energy, ocean current, sea surface temperature, and geology. These findings provide insights into the potential resilience of the species to changing marine climates and the role of migration and selection on recruitment processes, with implications for conservation and fisheries management. This study points to the spatial scales at which selection processes operate in marine systems and highlights the benefits of geospatially-informed sampling regimes for overcoming limitations associated with marine population genomic research.

Environmental Influences on Neuromorphology in the Non-Native Starling Sturnus vulgaris.

Cognitive traits are predicted to be under intense selection in animals moving into new environments and may determine the success, or otherwise, of dispersal and invasions. In particular, spatial information related to resource distribution is an important determinant of neural development. Spatial information is predicted to vary for invasive species encountering novel environments. However, few studies have tested how cognition or neural development varies intraspecifically within an invasive species. In Australia, the non-native common starling Sturnus vulgaris inhabits a range of habitats that vary in seasonal resource availability and distribution. We aimed to identify variations in the brain mass and hippocampus volume of starlings in Australia related to environmental variation across two substantially different habitat types. Specifically, we predicted variation in brain mass and hippocampal volume in relation to environmental conditions, latitude, and climatic variables. To test this, brain mass and volumes of the hippocampus and two control brain regions (telencephalon and tractus septomesencephalicus) were quantified from starling brains gathered from across the species' range in south eastern Australia. When comparing across an environmental gradient, there was a significant interaction between sex and environment for overall brain mass, with greater sexual dimorphism in brain mass in inland populations compared to those at the coast. There was no significant difference in hippocampal volume in relation to environmental measures (hippocampus volume, n = 17) for either sex. While these data provide no evidence for intraspecific environmental drivers for changes in hippocampus volume in European starlings in Australia, they do suggest that environmental factors contribute to sex differences in brain mass. This study identifies associations between the brain volume of a non-native species and the environment; further work in this area is required to elucidate the mechanisms driving this relationship.

Multiple dispersal vectors drive range expansion in an invasive marine species.

The establishment and subsequent spread of invasive species is widely recognized as one of the most threatening processes contributing to global biodiversity loss. This is especially true for marine and estuarine ecosystems, which have experienced significant increases in the number of invasive species with the increase in global maritime trade. Understanding the rate and mechanisms of range expansion is therefore of significant interest to ecologists and conservation managers alike. Using a combination of population genetic surveys, environmental DNA (eDNA) plankton sampling and hydrodynamic modelling, we examined the patterns of introduction of the predatory Northern Pacific seastar (Asterias amurensis) and pathways of secondary spread within southeast Australia. Genetic surveys across the invasive range reveal some genetic divergence between the two main invasive regions and no evidence of ongoing gene flow, a pattern that is consistent with the establishment of the second invasive region via a human-mediated translocation event. In contrast, hydrodynamic modelling combined with eDNA plankton sampling demonstrated that the establishment of range expansion populations within a region is consistent with natural larval dispersal and recruitment. Our results suggest that both anthropogenic and natural dispersal vectors have played an important role in the range expansion of this species in Australia. The multiple modes of spread combined with high levels of fecundity and a long larval duration in A. amurensis suggests it is likely to continue its range expansion and significantly impact Australian marine ecosystems.

Tests of ecogeographical relationships in a non-native species: what rules avian morphology?

The capacity of non-native species to undergo rapid adaptive change provides opportunities to research contemporary evolution through natural experiments. This capacity is particularly true when considering ecogeographical rules, to which non-native species have been shown to conform within relatively short periods of time. Ecogeographical rules explain predictable spatial patterns of morphology, physiology, life history and behaviour. We tested whether Australian populations of non-native starling, Sturnus vulgaris, introduced to the country approximately 150 years ago, exhibited predicted environmental clines in body size, appendage size and heart size (Bergmann's, Allen's and Hesse's rules, respectively). Adult starlings (n = 411) were collected from 28 localities from across eastern Australia from 2011 to 2012. Linear models were constructed to examine the relationships between morphology and local environment. Patterns of variation in body mass and bill surface area were consistent with Bergmann's and Allen's rules, respectively (small body size and larger bill size in warmer climates), with maximum summer temperature being a strongly weighted predictor of both variables. In the only intraspecific test of Hesse's rule in birds to date, we found no evidence to support the idea that relative heart size will be larger in individuals which live in colder climates. Our study does provide evidence that maximum temperature is a strong driver of morphological adaptation for starlings in Australia. The changes in morphology presented here demonstrate the potential for avian species to make rapid adaptive changes in relation to a changing climate to ameliorate the effects of heat stress.

Donor PNPLA3 rs738409 genotype affects fibrosis progression in liver transplantation for hepatitis C.

UNLABELLED: The rs738409 G>C single nucleotide polymorphism occurring in the patatin-like phospholipase 3 gene has been identified as a novel genetic marker for hepatic steatosis. Recent studies also associated rs738409 with fibrosis in hepatitis C (HCV). Therefore, we sought to determine the impact of donor and recipient rs738409 genotype on the progression of fibrosis after liver transplantation for HCV. This cohort study included 101 patients infected with HCV who underwent liver transplantation between January 2008, and June 2011. Donor and recipient rs738409 genotypes were determined from donor wedge biopsies and recipient explants. The time to Ishak stage 3 fibrosis, or HCV-related mortality/graft loss was analyzed by the Cox model adjusting for HCV-Donor Risk Index, warm ischemic time, pretransplant Model for Endstage Liver Disease (MELD) and viral load. The rs738409 CC variant was present in 56% of donors and 57% of recipients. The median follow-up period was 620 days. A total of 39 patients developed the primary outcome of ≥stage 3 fibrosis or HCV-related mortality/graft loss, the time to which differed by donor (P = 0.019) but not recipient (P = 0.89) genotype. In the multivariate model, donor GC or GG variants had 2.53 times the risk (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-5.02, P = 0.008) compared to CC variants. In the alternative endpoint: stage 3 fibrosis or all-cause mortality/graft loss, the effect of donor genotype was attenuated but remained significant at 1.98 (95% CI 1.11-3.53). CONCLUSIONS: The rs738409 genotype is an important predictor of posttransplant outcome in HCV. Liver, and not adipocytes, is the site at which this effect occurs. Our finding may be useful in donor selection for liver transplantation with HCV, and may guide decisions regarding early antiviral treatment.

Population density effects on gamete traits and fertilisation dynamics under varying sperm environments in mussels.

Gamete traits can vary widely among species, populations and individuals, influencing fertilisation dynamics and overall reproductive fitness. Sexual selection can play an important role in determining the evolution of gamete traits with local environmental conditions determining the strength and direction of sexual selection. Here, we test for signatures of post-mating selection on gamete traits in relation to population density, and possible interactive effects of population density and sperm concentration on sperm motility and fertilisation rates among natural populations of mussels. Our study shows that males from high-density populations produce smaller sperm compared with males from low-density populations, but we detected no effect of population density on egg size. Our results also reveal that females from low-density populations tended to exhibit lower fertilisation rates across a range of sperm concentrations, although this became less important as sperm concentration increased. Variances in fertilisation success were higher for females than males and the effect of gamete compatibility between males and females increases as sperm concentrations increase. These results suggest that local population density can influence gamete traits and fertilisation dynamics but also highlight the importance of phenotypic plasticity in governing sperm-egg interactions in a highly dynamic selective environment.

Assessing eDNA capture method from aquatic environment to optimise recovery of human mt-eDNA.

Previous studies have shown that environmental DNA (eDNA) from human sources can be recovered from natural bodies of water, and the generation of DNA profiles from such environmental samples may assist in forensic investigations. However, fundamental knowledge gaps exist around the factors influencing the probability of detecting human eDNA and the design of optimal sampling protocols. One of these is understanding the particle sizes eDNA signals are most strongly associated with and the most appropriate filter size needed for efficiently capturing eDNA particles. This study assessed the amount of mitochondrial eDNA associated with different particle sizes from human blood and skin cells recovered from freshwater samples. Samples (300 mL) were taken from experimental 10 L tanks of freshwater spiked with 50 µL of human blood or skin cells deposited by vigorously rubbing hands together for two minutes in freshwater. Subsamples were collected by passing 250 mL of experimental water sample through six different filter pore sizes (from 0.1 to 8 µm). This process was repeated at four time intervals after spiking over 72 hours to assess if the particle size of the amount of eDNA recovered changes as the eDNA degrades. Using a human-specific quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assay targeting the HV1 mitochondrial gene region, the total amount of mitochondrial eDNA associated with different particle size fractions was determined. In the case of human blood, at 0 h, the 0.45 µm filter pore size captured the greatest amount of mitochondrial eDNA, capturing 42 % of the eDNA detected. The pattern then changed after 48 h, with the 5 µm filter pore size capturing the greatest amount of eDNA (67 %), and 81 % of eDNA at 72 h. Notably, a ten-fold dilution proved to be a valuable strategy for enhancing eDNA recovery from the 8 µm filter at all time points, primarily due to the PCR inhibition observed in hemoglobin. For human skin cells, the greatest amounts of eDNA were recovered from the 8 µm filter pore size and were consistent through time (capturing 37 %, 56 %, and 88 % of eDNA at 0 hours, 48 hours, and 72 hours respectively). There is a clear variation in the amount of eDNA recovered between different cell types, and in some forensic scenarios, there is likely to be a mix of cell types present. These results suggest it would be best to use a 5 µm filter pore size to capture human blood and an 8 µm filter pore size to capture human skin cells to maximize DNA recovery from freshwater samples. Depending on the cell type contributing to the eDNA, a combination of different filter pore sizes may be employed to optimize the recovery of human DNA from water samples. This study provides the groundwork for optimizing a strategy for the efficient recovery of human eDNA from aquatic environments, paving the way for its broader application in forensic and environmental sciences.

Influence of habitat features on the colonisation of native and non-indigenous species.

Marine artificial structures provide substrates on which organisms can settle and grow. These structures facilitate establishment and spread of non-indigenous species, in part due to their distinct physical features (substrate material, movement, orientation) compared to natural habitat analogues such as rocky shores, and because following construction, they have abundant resources (space) for species to colonise. Despite the perceived importance of these habitat features, few studies have directly compared distributions of native and non-indigenous species or considered how functional identity and associated environmental preferences drive associations. We undertook a meta-analysis to investigate whether colonisation of native and non-indigenous species varies between artificial structures with features most closely resembling natural habitats (natural substrates, fixed structures, surfaces oriented upwards) and those least resembling natural habitats (artificial materials, floating structures, downfacing or vertical surfaces), or whether functional identity is the primary driver of differences. Analyses were done at global and more local (SE Australia) scales to investigate if patterns held regardless of scale. Our results suggest that functional group (i.e., algae, ascidians. barnacles, bryozoans, polychaetes) rather than species classification (i.e., native or non-indigenous) are the main drivers of differences in communities between different types of artificial structures. Specifically, there were differences in the abundance of ascidians, barnacles, and polychaetes between (1) upfacing and downfacing/vertical surfaces, and (2) floating and fixed substrates. When differences were detected, taxa were most abundant on features least resembling natural habitats. Results varied between global and SE Australian analyses, potentially due to reduced variability across studies in the SE Australian dataset. Thus, the functional group and associated preferences of the highest threat NIS in the area should be considered in design strategies (e.g., ecological engineering) to limit their establishment on newly built infrastructure.

The effect of mitochondrial recombination on fertilization success in blue mussels.

The presence of doubly uniparental inheritance (DUI) in bivalves represents a unique mode of mitochondrial transmission, whereby paternal (male-transmitted M-type) and maternal (female-transmitted F-type) haplotypes are transmitted to offspring separately. Male embryos retain both haplotypes, but the M-type is selectively removed from females. Due to the presence of heteroplasmy in males, mtDNA can recombine resulting in a 'masculinized' haplotype referred to as Mf-type. While mtDNA recombination is usually rare, it has been recorded in multiple mussel species across the Northern Hemisphere. Given that mitochondria are the powerhouse of the cell, different mtDNA haplotypes may have different selective advantages under diverse environmental conditions. This may be particularly important for sperm fitness and fertilization success. In this study we aimed to i) determine the presence, prevalence of the Mf-type in Australian blue mussels (Mytilus sp.) and ii) investigate the effect of Mf-mtDNA on sperm performance (a fitness correlate). We found a high prevalence of recombined mtDNA (≈35 %) located within the control region of the mitochondrial genome, which occurred only in specimens that contained Southern Hemisphere mtDNA. The presence of two female mitotypes were identified in the studied mussels, one likely originating from the Northern Hemisphere, and the other either representing the endemic M. planulatus species or introduced genotypes from the Southern Hemisphere. Despite having recombination events present in a third of the studied population, analysis of sperm performance indicated no difference in fertilization success related to mitotype.

The use of microfluidic devices in studies of differential sperm chemotaxis.

Differential sperm chemotaxis describes differences among male-female pairings in chemotactic responses of sperm to egg (or female)-derived chemical attractants. Microfluidic devices provide powerful platforms in which to study this complex gamete interaction. Here, we describe key challenges and potential solutions in applying this state-of-the-art technique to differential sperm chemotaxis.

Assessing the use of environmental DNA (eDNA) as a tool in the detection of human DNA in water.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) is a highly sensitive and cost-effective tool that is increasingly being applied to studies of biodiversity and species detection. This non-invasive method relies on the collection of environmental samples that contain genetic material being shed into surrounding environment by the target organism/s. While forensic science has a long history of using molecular tools for collecting DNA from the environment, the detection of human DNA from environmental water samples has been limited. This study investigated the detection and degradation rates of human eDNA in water samples under controlled laboratory conditions. Using a human-specific qPCR assay targeting the ND1 region of human mitochondrial DNA, eDNA degradation over time in water spiked with human blood was assessed. Recovery of nuclear DNA was investigated by determining if routine DNA short tandem repeat (STR) profiles of the blood source could be generated. Results demonstrated that human eDNA remains detectable for up to 11 days under laboratory conditions in environmental water and up to 35 days in distilled water. Partial STR profiles could be recovered from environmental water only up to 24 h, while, in distilled water, partial profiles continued to be recovered up to 840 h. These findings demonstrate that sampling human eDNA from aquatic samples can provide reliable human DNA detection within relatively short time windows, assisting law enforcement agencies by providing information about the potential time an individual may have been present in an area or assisting in the detection and location of a body or remains in aquatic environments.

Detecting marine pests using environmental DNA and biophysical models.

The spread of marine pests is occurring at record rates due to globalisation and increasing trade. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is an emerging tool for pest surveillance, allowing for the detection of genetic material shed by organisms into the environment. However, factors influencing the spatial and temporal detection limits of eDNA in marine environments are poorly understood. In this study we use eDNA assays to assess the invasive ranges of two marine pests in south-eastern Australia, the kelp Undaria pinnatifida and the seastar Asterias amurensis. We explored the temporal and spatial detection limits of eDNA under different oceanographic conditions by combining estimates of eDNA decay with biophysical modelling. Positive eDNA detections at several new locations indicate the invasive range of both pest species is likely to be wider than currently assumed. Environmental DNA decay rates were similar for both species, with a decay rate constant of 0.035 h-1 for U. pinnatifida, and a decay rate constant of 0.041 h-1 for A. amurensis, resulting in a 57-73% decrease in eDNA concentrations in the first 24 h and decaying beyond the limits of detection after 3-4 days. Biophysical models informed by eDNA decay profiles indicate passive transport of eDNA up to a maximum of 10 to 20 km from its source, with a ~90-95% reduction in eDNA concentration within 1-3 km from the source, depending on local oceanography. These models suggest eDNA signals are likely to be highly localised, even in complex marine environments. This was confirmed with spatially replicated eDNA sampling around an established U. pinnatifida population indicating detection limits of ~750 m from the source. This study highlights the value of eDNA methods for marine pest surveillance and provides a much-needed description of the spatio-temporal detection limits of eDNA under different oceanographic conditions.

Local thermal adaptation and limited gene flow constrain future climate responses of a marine ecosystem engineer.

Rising ocean temperatures and extreme temperature events have precipitated declines and local extinctions in many marine species globally, but patterns of loss are often uneven across species ranges for reasons that are poorly understood. Knowledge of the extent of local adaptation and gene flow may explain such patterns and help predict future trajectories under scenarios of climate change. We test the extent to which local differentiation in thermal tolerance is influenced by gene flow and local adaptation using a widely distributed intertidal seaweed (Hormosira banksii) from temperate Australia. Population surveys across ~2,000 km of the species range revealed strong genetic structuring at regional and local scales (global F ST = 0.243) reflecting extremely limited gene flow, while common garden experiments (14-day exposures to 15, 18, 21°C) revealed strong site differences in early development and mortality in response to elevated temperature. Embryos from many sites spanning a longitudinal thermal gradient showed suppressed development and increased mortality to elevated water temperatures, but populations originating from warmer and more variable thermal environments tended to be less susceptible to warming. Notably, there was significant local-scale variation in the thermal responses of embryos within regions which was corroborated by the finding of small-scale genetic differences. We expect the observed genetic and phenotypic differentiation to lead to uneven responses to warming sea surface temperatures in this important marine foundation species. The study highlights the challenges of predicting species responses to thermal stress and the importance of management strategies that incorporate evolutionary potential for "climate-proofing" marine ecosystems.

Genetic data and climate niche suitability models highlight the vulnerability of a functionally important plant species from south-eastern Australia.

Habitat fragmentation imperils the persistence of many functionally important species, with climate change a new threat to local persistence due to climate niche mismatching. Predicting the evolutionary trajectory of species essential to ecosystem function under future climates is challenging but necessary for prioritizing conservation investments. We use a combination of population genetics and niche suitability models to assess the trajectory of a functionally important, but highly fragmented, plant species from south-eastern Australia (Banksia marginata, Proteaceae). We demonstrate significant genetic structuring among, and high level of relatedness within, fragmented remnant populations, highlighting imminent risks of inbreeding. Population simulations, controlling for effective population size (N e), suggest that many remnant populations will suffer rapid declines in genetic diversity due to drift in the absence of intervention. Simulations were used to demonstrate how inbreeding and drift processes might be suppressed by assisted migration and population mixing approaches that enhance the size and connectivity of remnant populations. These analyses were complemented by niche suitability models that predicted substantial reductions of suitable habitat by 2080; ~30% of the current distribution of the species climate niche overlaps with the projected distribution of the species climate niche in the geographic region by the 2080s. Our study highlights the importance of conserving remnant populations and establishing new populations in areas likely to support B. marginata in the future, and adopting seed sourcing strategies that can help populations overcome the risks of inbreeding and maladaptation. We also argue that ecological replacement of B. marginata using climatically suited plant species might be needed in the future to maintain ecosystem processes where B. marginata cannot persist. We recommend the need for progressive revegetation policies and practices to prevent further deterioration of species such as B. marginata and the ecosystems they support.