Clarifying Demographic Impacts on Embodied and Materially Retained Carbon toward Climate Change Mitigation.

Modern lifestyles demand a number of products derived from petroleum-based sources that eventually cause carbon emissions. The quantification of lifestyle and household consumption impacts upon carbon emissions from both the embodied CO2 (EC) and materially retained carbon (MRC) viewpoints is critical to deriving amelioration policies and meeting emission reduction goals. This study, for the first time, details a methodology to estimate both EC and MRC for Japan, focusing on petrochemicals and woody products utilizing the time series input-output table, physical value tables and the national survey of family income and expenditure, leveraging time series input-output-based material flow analysis (IO-MFA), and structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Findings elucidated hot spots of deleterious consumption by age of householder and the critical factors which underpin them including intensity effects, pattern effects, and demographic shifts over time. Although demographic shifts associated with an aging, shrinking population in Japan decreased EC and MRC, the negative effect reduced in size over time during 1990-2005. Policy implications identify the potential to mitigate approximately 21% of required household emission reductions by 2030 through strategies including recycling initiatives and the recovery of carbon from products covered within current recycling laws and hot spot sectors which are not currently considered such as apparel.

Global mining risk footprint of critical metals necessary for low-carbon technologies: the case of neodymium, cobalt, and platinum in Japan.

Meeting the 2-degree global warming target requires wide adoption of low-carbon energy technologies. Many such technologies rely on the use of precious metals, however, increasing the dependence of national economies on these resources. Among such metals, those with supply security concerns are referred to as critical metals. Using the Policy Potential Index developed by the Fraser Institute, this study developed a new footprint indicator, the mining risk footprint (MRF), to quantify the mining risk directly and indirectly affecting a national economy through its consumption of critical metals. We formulated the MRF as a product of the material footprint (MF) of the consuming country and the mining risks of the countries where the materials are mined. A case study was conducted for the 2005 Japanese economy to determine the MF and MRF for three critical metals essential for emerging energy technologies: neodymium, cobalt and platinum. The results indicate that in 2005 the MFs generated by Japanese domestic final demand, that is, the consumption-based metal output of Japan, were 1.0 × 10(3) t for neodymium, 9.4 × 10(3) t for cobalt, and 2.1 × 10 t for platinum. Export demand contributes most to the MF, accounting for 3.0 × 10(3) t, 1.3 × 10(5) t, and 3.1 × 10 t, respectively. The MRFs of Japanese total final demand (domestic plus export) were calculated to be 1.7 × 10 points for neodymium, 4.5 × 10(-2) points for cobalt, and 5.6 points for platinum, implying that the Japanese economy is incurring a high mining risk through its use of neodymium. This country's MRFs are all dominated by export demand. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications and future research directions for measuring the MFs and MRFs of critical metals. For countries poorly endowed with mineral resources, adopting low-carbon energy technologies may imply a shifting of risk from carbon resources to other natural resources, in particular critical metals, and a trade-off between increased mining risk and deployment of such technologies. Our analysis constitutes a first step toward quantifying and managing the risks associated with natural resource mining.

Changes in the carbon footprint of Japanese households in an aging society.

As the aging and low birthrate trends continue in Japan, and as changes in the working population and consumption patterns occur, new factors are expected to have an impact on consumption-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We present the impacts of changes in the composition of Japanese households on GHG emission structures using current (2005) consumption-based accounting on the commodity sectors that are expected to require priority efforts for reducing emissions in 2035. This is done using the Global Link Input-Output model (GLIO) and domestic household consumption data and assuming that recent detailed consumption expenditures based on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) will continue into the future. The results show that consumption-based GHG emissions derived from Japanese household consumption in 2035 are estimated to be 1061 Mt-CO2eq (4.2% lower than in 2005). This study can be used to reveal more information and as a resource in developing policies to more meticulously and efficiently reduce emissions based on emission and import rates for each domestic and overseas commodity supply chain.

Global flows of critical metals necessary for low-carbon technologies: the case of neodymium, cobalt, and platinum.

This study, encompassing 231 countries and regions, quantifies the global transfer of three critical metals (neodymium, cobalt, and platinum) considered vital for low-carbon technologies by means of material flow analysis (MFA), using trade data (BACI) and the metal contents of trade commodities, resolving the optimization problem to ensure the material balance of the metals within each country and region. The study shows that in 2005 international trade led to global flows of 18.6 kt of neodymium, 154 kt of cobalt, and 402 t of platinum and identifies the main commodities and top 50 bilateral trade links embodying these metals. To explore the issue of consumption efficiency, the flows were characterized according to the technological level of each country or region and divided into three types: green ("efficient use"), yellow ("moderately efficient use"), and red ("inefficient use"). On this basis, the shares of green, yellow, and red flows in the aggregate global flow of Nd were found to be 1.2%, 98%, and 1.2%, respectively. For Co, the respective figures are 53%, 28%, and 19%, and for Pt 15%, 84%, and 0.87%. Furthermore, a simple indicator focusing on the composition of the three colored flows for each commodity was developed to identify trade commodities that should be prioritized for urgent technical improvement to reduce wasteful use of the metals. Based on the indicator, we discuss logical, strategic identification of the responsibilities and roles of the countries involved in the global flows.

Japanese urban household carbon footprints during early-stage COVID-19 pandemic were consistent with those over the past decade.

As urbanization accelerates worldwide, substantial energy and services are required to meet the demand from cities, making cities major contributors to adverse environmental consequences. To bridge the knowledge gap in the absence of fine-grained city-level climate protection measures due to data availability and accuracy, this study provides a detailed carbon emission inventory for analyzing the monthly fluctuations based on citizens' daily consumption behaviors. Here, carbon emissions embodied in approximately 500 household consumption items were calculated in 47 prefectural-level cities in Japan from 2011 to June 2021. We analyzed the results considering the regional, seasonal, demand, and emission way-specific aspects, and compared the emission before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the carbon footprints during the pandemic were consistent with the previous level despite downtrends in specific categories. This study provides an example of utilizing city-level emission data to improve household green consumption behavior as references for enriching city-level decarbonization paths.

Monthly direct and indirect greenhouse gases emissions from household consumption in the major Japanese cities.

Urban household consumption contributes substantially to global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Urban household emissions encompass both direct and indirect emissions, with the former associated with the direct use of fossil fuels and the latter with the emissions embodied in the consumed goods and services. However, there is a lack of consistent and comprehensive datasets outlining in great detail emissions from urban household consumption. To bridge this data gap, we construct an emission inventory of urban household emissions for 52 major cities in Japan that covers around 500 emission categories. The dataset spans from January 2011 to December 2015 and contains 12,384 data records for direct emissions and 1,543,128 records for indirect emissions. Direct emission intensity is provided in g-CO2/JPY to facilitate both future studies of household emission in Japan, as well as act as a reference for the development of detailed household emission inventories in other countries.

Trends in global dependency on the Indonesian palm oil and resultant environmental impacts.

Rapid growth in the international demand for palm oil has triggered considerable global concern because oil palm plantations deteriorate the environment where they are developed, resulting in complex environmental impacts in the producer nations. Here, we illustrate the historical trends in the structure of Indonesian palm oil supply chains and how these have been affected by the final demand of other nations since 2000 by using the most recent dataset of global material flows of palm oil and a global input-output database. In addition, the combination of spatial land-use change with palm oil consumption along the supply chains illustrates the linkages between ultimate consumption and land-use changes due to the palm oil plantations. As a result, the major contributors to palm oil production in Indonesia were mostly stable, being India, China, Western Europe, the United States, and Japan. However, the contribution of Indonesia declined by 6% during 2000-2013, illustrating a possible shift towards palm oil being used for non-food demands, such as apparel and medicines. Building on consumption-based accounting schemes as demonstrated by this study are considered necessary to protect local ecosystems and society.

Visualizing the shape of society: An analysis of public bads and burden allocation due to household consumption using an input-output approach.

This study investigates how our lifestyles can cause societal issue including a reduction in social equity due to the consumption of natural resources. Based on a range of household environmental footprints and their application to a quantitative social equity evaluation framework, a methodology is proposed which identifies the creation and origin of public bads within society. This research builds on the methodologies of energy policy sustainability evaluation incorporated with environmentally extended input output analysis in order to critically assess lifestyle-based consumption impacts, and to quantify the allocation of subsequent burdens across generations. Further, the proposed methodology is applied to a case study in Japan, an aging, shrinking population. Analysis identifies the increasing burden originating with elderly generations, and due to the resolution offered by the methodology, specifically identifies commodities and services which underpin these future burdens, allowing for policy implications to be drawn. The public bads and consumption burden indicator established through the described methodology is proposed as a footprint harmonizing tool to assess sustainability and supplement the footprint family.