Influence of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance outputs produced by the UK health security agency (UKHSA) outbreak surveillance team on decision-making by local stakeholders.

BACKGROUND: The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) COVID-19 Outbreak Surveillance Team (OST) was established in June 2020 to provide Local Authorities (LAs) in England with surveillance intelligence to aid their response to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Reports were produced using standardised metrics in an automated format. Here we evaluate how the SARS-CoV-2 surveillance reports influenced decision making, how resources evolved and how they could be refined to meet the requirements of stakeholders in the future. METHODS: Public health professionals (n = 2,400) involved in the COVID-19 response from the 316 English LAs were invited to take part in an online survey. The questionnaire covered five themes: (i) report use; (ii) influence of surveillance outputs on local intervention strategies; (iii) timeliness; (iv) current and future data requirements; and (v) content development. RESULTS: Of the 366 respondents to the survey, most worked in public health, data science, epidemiology, or business intelligence. Over 70% of respondents used the LA Report and Regional Situational Awareness Report daily or weekly. The information had been used by 88% to inform decision making within their organisations and 68% considered that intervention strategies had been instituted as a result of these decisions. Examples of changes instigated included targeted communications, pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the timing of interventions. Most responders considered that the surveillance content had reacted well to evolving demands. The majority (89%) said that their information requirements would be met if the surveillance reports were incorporated into the COVID-19 Situational Awareness Explorer Portal. Additional information suggested by stakeholders included vaccination and hospitalisation data as well as information on underlying health conditions, infection during pregnancy, school absence and wastewater testing. CONCLUSIONS: The OST surveillance reports were a valuable information resource used by local stakeholders in their response to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Control measures that affect disease epidemiology and monitoring requirements need to be considered in the continuous maintenance of surveillance outputs. We identified areas for further development and, since the evaluation, information on repeat infections and vaccination data have been included in the surveillance reports. Furthermore, timeliness of publications has been improved by updating the data flow pathways.

Accessible health care is critical to the effective control of sexually transmitted infections.

Bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are rising relentlessly in virtually every country and among most risk groups. These infections have substantial individual and community consequences and costs. This review summarises the evidence for the effectiveness of different strategies to control STIs and assumes countries have sufficient financial resources to provide accessible health care. Reducing the probability of transmission essentially involves increasing condom use, which is problematic given that condom use is currently falling in most risk groups. Interventions to increase condom use are expensive and hard to sustain. Only a limited number of studies have shown it is possible to reduce the rate of partner change and sustained changes are difficult. In contrast, the provision of accessible health care has a powerful effect on the incidence rate of STIs, with dramatic falls in STIs in virtually all countries following the discovery of antibiotics. More recent studies support the powerful role of accessible health care as a strategy for putting substantial downward pressure on STI rates. Accessible health care has a powerful effect on the incidence of STIs. The professionals who are responsible for funding these services need to appreciate that they are ultimately responsible for the rates of STIs in their communities. In contrast, personal behaviour plays a less powerful role in determining the incidence of STIs and is hard to change and sustain at a population level. The public needs to appreciate that it is the governments they elect and not individuals who are responsible for the rates of STIs in their communities.

Investigating the decline in Lymphogranuloma venereum diagnoses in men who have sex with men in the United Kingdom since 2016: an analysis of surveillance data.

Background Following an upward trajectory in Lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) diagnoses in the UK from 2004 to 2016, with annual diagnoses increasing from 28 to 904, diagnoses fell to 641 in 2017; this was inconsistent with the upward trend in other bacterial sexually transmissible infections (STIs) between 2016 and 2017. An analysis of surveillance data from multiple sources to investigate the possible factors contributing to this decline in LGV was performed. METHODS: LGV tests and diagnoses in the UK from 2004 to 2018 were captured through laboratory data from the LGV Reference Laboratories and laboratories conducting in-house LGV testing. These data and clinical diagnoses data from England were analysed alongside the national management guidelines issued over the course of the epidemic. RESULTS: LGV diagnoses increased between 2004 and 2015 and then decreased between 2016 and 2018. LGV testing increased from 2010 to 2018 (2690-10850). Test positivity halved between 2015 (14.8%, 929-6272) and 2018 (7.3%, 791-10850). Peaks in LGV testing and diagnoses appeared to coincide with the publication of national LGV management guidelines and changes to clinical practice. The proportion of LGV diagnoses among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) fell between 2013 and 2018 (74-48%). CONCLUSIONS: The fall in diagnoses and positivity were likely due to increasing earlier clinical diagnosis and treatment. Changes to the national management guidelines, the clinical policy and practice of some larger clinics and potentially changes to the guidelines for the treatment of chlamydia broadened the scope of testing and increased testing in asymptomatic patients which, in combination, likely had a positive effect on the control of LGV infection.

Acceptability and potential impact of delivering sexual health promotion information through social media and dating apps to MSM in England: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Increasing rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) in England is a pressing public health concern. Interventions targeting MSM, including information provision that effectively promotes sexual health, are needed. To support such intervention development, it is necessary to understand acceptable ways of delivering sexual health information. We explored the acceptability and potential uses and impacts of delivering sexual health information to MSM through social media and geosocial networking apps or dating apps. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted in person or by telephone with 25 MSM resident in England recruited via dating apps and social media advertisements. Interviews explored sexual health information sources, perceptions and uses. Attitudes towards sexual health promotion through social media and dating apps were then discussed. The data were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Sexual health information delivery through social media and dating apps was considered acceptable. Receiving information when browsing social media was viewed positively by most, as people have time to absorb information. In contrast, concerns were expressed that sharing or commenting on social media sexual health information may lead to judgements and discrimination. While social media reaches a high proportion of the population, dating apps can easily target MSM. However, tensions exist between the ability to provide information at an opportune time through dating apps, when users are connecting with new sexual partners, with the potential to adversely affect the app user's experience. Hypothetical and actual uses and impacts of sexual health information ranged from no impact to reading information, sharing with peers, and increased awareness, to influencing healthcare-seeking, decision-making and risk-taking behaviours. Ensuring that information is engaging, positive in tone, not too clinical, focused on building social norms and delivered by trusted organisations were viewed as important for supporting its use. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these findings support the development of new interventions that use dating apps and social media for sexual health promotion.

Prevalence of new variants of Chlamydia trachomatis escaping detection by the Aptima Combo 2 assay, England, June to August 2019.

We identified two new Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) variants escaping Aptima Combo 2 (AC2) assay detection, in clinical specimens of two patients. One had a C1514T mutation the other a G1523A mutation, both within the AC2 23S rRNA target region. The prevalence of such variants among persons tested for CT in England was estimated to be fewer than 0.003%.

What is the overlap between HIV and shigellosis epidemics in England: further evidence of MSM transmission?

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that sexual transmission between men has replaced foreign travel as the predominant mode of Shigella transmission in England. However, sexuality and HIV status are not routinely recorded for laboratory-reported Shigella, and the role of HIV in the Shigella epidemic is not well understood. METHODS: The Modular Open Laboratory Information System containing all Shigella cases reported to Public Health England (PHE) and the PHE HIV and AIDS Reporting System holding all adults living with diagnosed HIV in England were matched using a combination of Soundex code, date of birth and gender. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2015, 88 664 patients were living with HIV, and 10 269 Shigella cases were reported in England; 9% (873/10 269) of Shigella cases were diagnosed with HIV, of which 93% (815/873) were in men. Shigella cases without reported travel history were more likely to be living with HIV than those who had travelled (14% (751/5427) vs 3% (134/4854); p<0.01). From 2004 to 2015, the incidence of Shigella in men with HIV rose from 47/100 000 to 226/100 000 (p<0.01) peaking in 2014 at 265/100 000, but remained low in women throughout the study period (0-24/100 000). Among Shigella cases without travel and with HIV, 91% (657/720) were men who have sex with men (MSM). HIV preceded Shigella diagnosis in 86% (610/720), and 65% (237/362) had an undetectable viral load (<50 copies/mL). DISCUSSION: We observed a sustained increase in the national rate of shigellosis in MSM with HIV, who may experience more serious clinical disease. Sexual history, HIV status and STI risk might require sensitive investigation in men presenting with gastroenteritis.

Factors associated with four atypical cases of congenital syphilis in England, 2016 to 2017: an ecological analysis.

Four isolated cases of congenital syphilis born to mothers who screened syphilis negative in the first trimester were identified between March 2016 and January 2017 compared with three cases between 2010 and 2015. The mothers were United Kingdom-born and had no syphilis risk factors. Cases occurred in areas with recent increases in sexually-transmitted syphilis among women and men who have sex with men, some behaviourally bisexual, which may have facilitated bridging between sexual networks.

Outbreak of hepatitis A associated with men who have sex with men (MSM), England, July 2016 to January 2017.

Between July 2016 and January 2017, 37 confirmed cases of hepatitis A with two unique IA genotype strains primarily among men who have sex with men, were reported across eight areas in England and Northern Ireland. Epidemiological and laboratory investigations indicate that these strains may have been imported several times from Spain, with secondary sexual transmission in the United Kingdom. Local and national public health services are collaborating to control this ongoing outbreak.

Proportion of Pelvic Inflammatory Disease Cases Caused by Chlamydia trachomatis: Consistent Picture From Different Methods.

BACKGROUND: Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) is a leading cause of both tubal factor infertility and ectopic pregnancy. Chlamydia trachomatis is an important risk factor for PID, but the proportion of PID cases caused by C. trachomatis is unclear. Estimates of this are required to evaluate control measures. METHODS: We consider 5 separate methods of estimating age-group-specific population excess fractions (PEFs) of PID due to C. trachomatis, using routine data, surveys, case-control studies, and randomized controlled trials, and apply these to data from the United Kingdom before introduction of the National Chlamydia Screening Programme. RESULTS: As they are informed by randomized comparisons and national exposure and outcome estimates, our preferred estimates of the proportion of PID cases caused by C. trachomatis are 35% (95% credible interval [CrI], 11%-69%) in women aged 16-24 years and 20% (95% CrI, 6%-38%) in women aged 16-44 years in the United Kingdom. There is a fair degree of consistency between adjusted estimates of PEF, but all have wide 95% CrIs. The PEF decreases from 53.5% (95% CrI, 15.6%-100%) in women aged 16-19 years to 11.5% (95% CrI, 3.0%-25.7%) in women aged 35-44 years. CONCLUSIONS: The PEFs of PID due to C. trachomatis decline steeply with age by a factor of around 5-fold between younger and older women. Further studies of the etiology of PID in different age groups are required.

Identifying and interpreting spatiotemporal variation in diagnoses of infectious syphilis among men, England: 2009 to 2013.

OBJECTIVES: Spatial clusters and variations in the trajectory of local epidemics were explored in relation to sexual orientation, demographic factors, stage of syphilis infection and HIV serostatus. METHODS: Kulldorff's scan statistics (SaTScan) was used to distinguish endemic and temporary clusters using a two-stage analysis. RESULTS: Endemic areas were found in London, Manchester, Brighton and Blackpool. Up to 40% of diagnoses were found within an 11 km radius of central London. Of men diagnosed with syphilis in London, 80% were men who have sex with men (MSM). Annual incidence in London increased from 24 cases (95% CI 23 to 26) per 100 000 male population in 2009 to 36 cases (95% CI 34 to38) in 2013. In comparison with clusters, endemic areas were characterised by a significantly higher (p<0.05) proportion of MSM (83% compared with 73%), increased HIV positivity (41% vs 15%), age 35 to 44 years (34% vs 23%), a lower proportion of patients born in the UK (50% vs 79%) and a lower proportion of primary stage infection (40% vs 47%). Space-time clusters outside endemic areas occurred in urban and rural areas and diagnoses fluctuated below 10 per month. Exponential increases in diagnoses resembling point source outbreaks were seen at two locations. CONCLUSION: Control of syphilis in endemic areas has proved elusive and clusters present unique intervention opportunities. Investigating the diversity of local epidemics provides information that can be used to predict outbreak structure, plan and evaluate sexual health services and guide public health investigation, hypothesis generation and research.

Which sexually active young female students are most at risk of pelvic inflammatory disease? A prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) in female students. METHODS: We performed a prospective study set in 11 universities and 9 further education colleges in London. In 2004-2006, 2529 sexually experienced, multiethnic, female students, mean age 20.8 years, provided self-taken vaginal samples and completed questionnaires at recruitment to the Prevention of Pelvic Infection chlamydia screening trial. After 12 months, they were followed up by questionnaire backed by medical record search and assessed for PID by blinded genitourinary medicine physicians. RESULTS: Of 2004 (79%) participants who reported numbers of sexual partners during follow-up, 32 (1.6%, 95% CI 1.1% to 2.2%) were diagnosed with PID. The strongest predictor of PID was baseline Chlamydia trachomatis (relative risk (RR) 5.7, 95% CI 2.6 to 15.6). After adjustment for baseline C. trachomatis, significant predictors of PID were ≥2 sexual partners or a new sexual partner during follow-up (RR 4.0, 95% CI 1.8 to 8.5; RR 2.8, 95% CI 1.3 to 6.3), age <20 years (RR 3.3, 95% CI 1.5 to 7.0), recruitment from a further education college rather than a university (RR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.3) and history at baseline of vaginal discharge (RR 2.7, 95% CI 1.2 to 5.8) or pelvic pain (RR 4.1, 95% CI 2.0 to 8.3) in the previous six months. Bacterial vaginosis and Mycoplasma genitalium infection were no longer significantly associated with PID after adjustment for baseline C. trachomatis. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple or new partners in the last 12 months, age <20 years and attending a further education college rather than a university were risk factors for PID after adjustment for baseline C. trachomatis infection. Sexual health education and screening programmes could be targeted at these high-risk groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00115388).

Rapid increase in lymphogranuloma venereum in men who have sex with men, United Kingdom, 2003 to September 2015.

United Kingdom (UK) national data show a sharp increase in diagnoses of lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) since 2012. Most cases are in men who have sex with men (MSM) living in London, with high rates of co-infection with HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. In light of these data, and the recent finding that one quarter of LGV infections may be asymptomatic, clinicians should be vigilant in testing for LGV, including in asymptomatic HIV-positive MSM.

Characteristics of LGV repeaters: analysis of LGV surveillance data.

OBJECTIVES: A number of individuals have acquired lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) infection multiple times since its re-emergence. We describe the characteristics of reinfections and those who acquire them. METHODS: The LGV Enhanced Surveillance system collected detailed information on LGV episodes in the U.K. from 2004 to 2010. Using logistic regression we compared the baseline characteristics of men who have sex with men (MSM) who had a repeat LGV episode ('repeaters') to MSM with a single reported episode ('non-repeaters'). RESULTS: There were 66 individuals among the 1281 MSM (5.2%) with LGV episode who had a recorded reinfection during the data collection period. Those who acquired LGV reinfection were more likely to be HIV positive (97% vs 79%), visit a clinic in London (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.8), and have hepatitis C (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.6) or concurrent gonorrhoea (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2 to 3.8) on their first recorded LGV episode. Repeaters reported higher levels of unprotected sex, but behavioural variables were not significantly different between repeaters and non-repeaters. CONCLUSIONS: Among LGV repeaters, risk behaviour alone did not explain subsequent reinfection. LGV repeaters have a high level of other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) which may be linked to their central position in the sexual network that contributes to their heightened risk of STI acquisition. Given the low prevalence of LGV in the general MSM population, momentary increases in incidence in subsets of the population may be an important factor for LGV risk where the overall level of sexual risk behaviour is higher. Validating this would require research into sexual network structures.

Multi-omics microsampling for the profiling of lifestyle-associated changes in health.

Current healthcare practices are reactive and use limited physiological and clinical information, often collected months or years apart. Moreover, the discovery and profiling of blood biomarkers in clinical and research settings are constrained by geographical barriers, the cost and inconvenience of in-clinic venepuncture, low sampling frequency and the low depth of molecular measurements. Here we describe a strategy for the frequent capture and analysis of thousands of metabolites, lipids, cytokines and proteins in 10 µl of blood alongside physiological information from wearable sensors. We show the advantages of such frequent and dense multi-omics microsampling in two applications: the assessment of the reactions to a complex mixture of dietary interventions, to discover individualized inflammatory and metabolic responses; and deep individualized profiling, to reveal large-scale molecular fluctuations as well as thousands of molecular relationships associated with intra-day physiological variations (in heart rate, for example) and with the levels of clinical biomarkers (specifically, glucose and cortisol) and of physical activity. Combining wearables and multi-omics microsampling for frequent and scalable omics may facilitate dynamic health profiling and biomarker discovery.

Risk of pelvic inflammatory disease following Chlamydia trachomatis infection: analysis of prospective studies with a multistate model.

Our objective in this study was to estimate the probability that a Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infection will cause an episode of clinical pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) and the reduction in such episodes among women with CT that could be achieved by annual screening. We reappraised evidence from randomized controlled trials of screening and controlled observational studies that followed untreated CT-infected and -uninfected women to measure the development of PID. Data from these studies were synthesized using a continuous-time Markov model which takes into account the competing risk of spontaneous clearance of CT. Using a 2-step piecewise homogenous Markov model that accounts for the distinction between prevalent and incident infections, we investigated the possibility that the rate of PID due to CT is greater during the period immediately following infection. The available data were compatible with both the homogenous and piecewise homogenous models. Given a homogenous model, the probability that a CT episode will cause clinical PID was 0.16 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.06, 0.25), and annual screening would prevent 61% (95% CrI: 55, 67) of CT-related PID in women who became infected with CT. Assuming a piecewise homogenous model with a higher rate during the first 60 days, corresponding results were 0.16 (95% CrI: 0.07, 0.26) and 55% (95% CrI: 32, 72), respectively.

It matters what you measure: a systematic literature review examining whether young people in poorer socioeconomic circumstances are more at risk of chlamydia.

BACKGROUND: England has invested in chlamydia screening interventions for young people. It is not known whether young people in poorer socioeconomic circumstances (SEC) are at greater risk of chlamydia and therefore in greater need of screening. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic review examining socioeconomic variations in chlamydia prevalence or positivity in young people. DATA SOURCES: Eight bibliographic databases using terms related to chlamydia and SEC, supplemented by website and reference searches. ELIGIBILITY: Studies published 1999-2011 in North America, Western Europe, Australia or New Zealand, including populations aged 15-24 years, with chlamydia prevalence or positivity diagnosed by nucleic acid amplification testing. APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS: Two reviewers independently screened references, extracted data, appraised studies meeting inclusion criteria and rated studies as high, medium or low according to their quality and relevance. Socioeconomic variations in chlamydia were synthesised for medium/high-rated studies only. RESULTS: No high-rated studies were identified. Eight medium-rated studies reported variations in chlamydia prevalence by SEC. In 6/8 studies, prevalence was higher in people of poorer SEC. Associations were more often significant when measured by education than when using other indicators. All studies measuring positivity were rated low. Across all studies, methodological limitations in SEC measurement were identified. CONCLUSIONS: The current literature is limited in its capacity to describe associations between SEC and chlamydia risk. The choice of SEC measure may explain why some studies find higher chlamydia prevalence in young people in disadvantaged circumstances while others do not. Studies using appropriate SEC indicators (eg, education) are needed to inform decisions about targeting chlamydia screening.

Lymphogranuloma venereum diagnoses among men who have sex with men in the U.K.: interpreting a cross-sectional study using an epidemic phase-specific framework.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the drivers behind the epidemic expansion of lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) cases in late 2009 to help inform infection control. METHODS: An epidemic curve of all LGV diagnoses between 2003 and mid-2012 was plotted and divided into the initial detection period, and endemic, growth and hyperendemic phases. Detailed clinical and behavioural data were collected and logistic regression was used to compare the characteristics of diagnoses made during the growth and endemic phases. RESULTS: Between April 2003 and June 2012, 2138 cases of LGV were diagnosed. Enhanced surveillance data were available for 1370 of whom 1353 were men who have sex with men (MSM). 98% of MSM presented with proctitis, 82% were HIV positive, 20% were hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody positive, and 67% lived in London. Growth phase cases (n=488) were more likely to report meeting sexual contacts at sex parties (11% vs. 6%, p=0.014), unprotected receptive or insertive oral intercourse (93% vs. 86%, p=0.001; 92% vs. 85%, p=0.001) and sharing sex toys (8% vs 4%; p=0.011), and to be diagnosed HIV positive (86% vs. 80%; p=0.014), than endemic phase cases (n=423). Unprotected receptive anal intercourse was equally likely to be reported in both phases (71% vs. 73%). After adjustment, cases in the growth phase were more likely to meet new contacts at sex parties (p=0.031) and be HIV positive (p=0.045). CONCLUSIONS: Rapid epidemic growth coincided with an intensification of unprotected sexual activity among a core population of HIV-positive MSM. Efforts to develop innovative interventions for this hard-to-reach population are needed.

Mixture-of-exponentials models to explain heterogeneity in studies of the duration of Chlamydia trachomatis infection.

Published studies of the duration of asymptomatic Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women have produced diverse estimates, and most reviewers have not attempted an evidence synthesis. We review the designs of duration studies, distinguishing between the incident cases presenting soon after infection in clinic-based studies and prevalent cases ascertained in population screening studies. We combine evidence from all studies under fixed-effect (single clearance rate), random-effect (study-specific clearance rate), and mixture-of-exponentials models, in which there are either two or three classes of infection that clear at different rates. We can identify classes as 'passive' infection and fast-clearing and slow-clearing infections. We estimate models by Bayesian MCMC and compared them using posterior mean residual deviance and the deviance information criterion. The single fixed-effect clearance rate model fitted very poorly. The random-effect model was adequate but inferior to the two-class and three-class mixture of exponentials. According to the two-class model, the proportion in the first class was 23% (95% CI: 16-31%), and the mean duration of C. trachomatis infection is 1.36 years (95% CI: 1.13-1.63 years). With the three-rate model, duration was similar, but identification of the proportions in each class (19%, 31%, and 49%) was poor. Although the random-effect model was descriptively adequate, the extreme degree of between-study variation in the clearance rate it predicted lacked biological plausibility. Differences in study recruitment and sampling mechanisms, acting through a mixture-of-exponentials model, better explains the apparent heterogeneity in duration.