Modeling potential risk areas of Orthohantavirus transmission in Northwestern Argentina using an ecological niche approach.

BACKGROUND: Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) is a rodent-borne zoonosis in the Americas, with up to 50% mortality rates. In Argentina, the Northwestern endemic area presents half of the annually notified HPS cases in the country, transmitted by at least three rodent species recognized as reservoirs of Orthohantavirus. The potential distribution of reservoir species based on ecological niche models (ENM) can be a useful tool to establish risk areas for zoonotic diseases. Our main aim was to generate an Orthohantavirus risk transmission map based on ENM of the reservoir species in northwest Argentina (NWA), to compare this map with the distribution of HPS cases; and to explore the possible effect of climatic and environmental variables on the spatial variation of the infection risk. METHODS: Using the reservoir geographic occurrence data, climatic/environmental variables, and the maximum entropy method, we created models of potential geographic distribution for each reservoir in NWA. We explored the overlap of the HPS cases with the reservoir-based risk map and a deforestation map. Then, we calculated the human population at risk using a census radius layer and a comparison of the environmental variables' latitudinal variation with the distribution of HPS risk. RESULTS: We obtained a single best model for each reservoir. The temperature, rainfall, and vegetation cover contributed the most to the models. In total, 945 HPS cases were recorded, of which 97,85% were in the highest risk areas. We estimated that 18% of the NWA population was at risk and 78% of the cases occurred less than 10 km from deforestation. The highest niche overlap was between Calomys fecundus and Oligoryzomys chacoensis. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies potential risk areas for HPS transmission based on climatic and environmental factors that determine the distribution of the reservoirs and Orthohantavirus transmission in NWA. This can be used by public health authorities as a tool to generate preventive and control measures for HPS in NWA.

Clinical diagnosis of COVID-19. A multivariate logistic regression analysis of symptoms of COVID-19 at presentation.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this cross-sectional study was to describe the main symptoms associated with COVID-19, and their diagnostic characteristics, to aid in the clinical diagnosis. METHODS: An analysis of all patients diagnosed by RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 between April and May 2020 in Argentina was conducted. The data includes clinical and demographic information from all subjects at the time of presentation (n=67318, where 12% were positive for SARS-CoV-2). The study population was divided into four age groups: pediatric (0-17 years), young adults (18-44 years), adults (45-64 years), and elderly (65-103 years). Multivariate logistic regression was used to measure the association of all symptoms and to create a diagnostic model based on symptoms. RESULTS: Symptoms associated with COVID-19 were anosmia, dysgeusia, headache, low-grade fever, odynophagia, and malaise. However, the presentation of these symptoms was different between the different age groups. In turn, at the time of presentation, the symptoms associated with respiratory problems (chest pain, abdominal pain, and dyspnea) had a negative association with COVID-19 or did not present statistical relevance. On the other hand, the model based on 16 symptoms, age and sex, presented a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 46%. CONCLUSIONS: There were significant differences between the different age groups. Additionally, there were interactions between different symptoms that were highly associated with COVID-19. Finally, our findings showed that a regression model based on multiple factors (age, sex, interaction between symptoms) can be used as an accessory diagnostic method or a rapid screening of suspected COVID-19 cases.