RESUMEN
Background and aims: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the commonest cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. Despite the high prevalence, no screening recommendations yet exist. We designed a prospective observational study to estimate the prevalence of NAFLD in the family of patients with NAFLD and develop a predictive model for identifying it. Methodology: The prevalence of NAFLD in patients' family members was estimated using ultrasonography, and univariate and multivariate odds were calculated for its predictors. A model was created using the significant parameters on multivariate odds, and its performance was tested using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC). Results: Among 447 family members of 191 patients with NAFLD, the prevalence of NAFLD was 55.9%. Family members with NAFLD were younger and had lower serum levels of aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), triglycerides. The liver stiffness measurement and controlled attenuation parameter values were also lesser in family members compared to the index cases. Age, body mass index (BMI), and ALT were independent predictors of NAFLD in the family members. A model combining age and BMI had an AUROC of 0.838 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.800-0.876, P < 0.001]. Age ≥30 years and BMI ≥25 kg/m2 had an odds ratio of 33.5 (95% CI 17.0-66.0, P < 0.001) for prediction of NAFLD, in comparison to BMI <25 kg/m2 and age <30 years. Conclusion: Family members of patients with NAFLD are at increased risk of NAFLD. Screening strategies using BMI and age ensure early identification and could be beneficial in clinical practice.