Cluster randomised controlled trial of specialist-led integrated COPD care (INTEGR COPD).

OBJECTIVE: Studies in hospital settings demonstrate that there is greater guideline adherence when care is delivered by a respiratory specialist, however, this has not been explored in primary care. The aim of this study is to determine the impact integrating respiratory specialists into primary care has on the delivery of guideline adherent chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) care. METHODS: 18 general practitioner (GP) practices were randomised to provide either usual or specialist-led COPD care. Patients at participating practices were included if they had an existing diagnosis of COPD. Outcomes were measured at the individual patient level. The primary outcome was guideline adherence, assessed as achieving four or more items of the COPD care bundle. Secondary outcome measures included quality of life, number of exacerbations, number of COPD-related hospitalisations and respiratory outpatient attendances. RESULTS: 586 patients from 10 practices randomised to the intervention and 656 patients from 8 practices randomised to the control arm of the study were included. The integration of respiratory specialists into GP practices led to a statistically significant (p<0.001) improvement in the provision of guideline adherent care when compared with usual care in this cohort (92.7% vs 70.1%) (OR 4.14, 95% CI 2.14 to 8.03). CONCLUSION: This is the first study to demonstrate that guideline adherence is improved through the integration of respiratory specialists into GP practices to deliver annual COPD reviews. To facilitate changes in current healthcare practice and policy, the findings of this paper need to be viewed in combination with qualitative research exploring the acceptability of specialist integration. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03482700.

Engaging stakeholders to level up COPD care in LMICs: lessons learned from the "Breathe Well" programme in Brazil, China, Georgia, and North Macedonia.

BACKGROUND: Effective stakeholder engagement in health research is increasingly being recognised and promoted as an important pathway to closing the gap between knowledge production and its use in health systems. However, little is known about its process and impacts, particularly in low-and middle-income countries. This opinion piece draws on the stakeholder engagement experiences from a global health research programme on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) led by clinician researchers in Brazil, China, Georgia and North Macedonia, and presents the process, outcomes and lessons learned. MAIN BODY: Each country team was supported with an overarching engagement protocol and mentored to develop a tailored plan. Patient involvement in research was previously limited in all countries, requiring intensive efforts through personal communication, meetings, advisory groups and social media. Accredited training programmes were effective incentives for participation from healthcare providers; and aligning research findings with competing policy priorities enabled interest and dialogue with decision-makers. The COVID-19 pandemic severely limited possibilities for planned engagement, although remote methods were used where possible. Planned and persistent engagement contributed to shared knowledge and commitment to change, including raised patient and public awareness about COPD, improved skills and practice of healthcare providers, increased interest and support from clinical leaders, and dialogue for integrating COPD services into national policy and practice. CONCLUSION: Stakeholder engagement enabled relevant local actors to produce and utilise knowledge for small wins such as improving day-to-day practice and for long-term goals of equitable access to COPD care. For it to be successful and sustained, stakeholder engagement needs to be valued and integrated throughout the research and knowledge generation process, complete with dedicated resources, contextualised and flexible planning, and commitment.

The Clinical Teaching Fellow role: exploring expectations and experiences.

BACKGROUND: Many UK junior doctors are now taking a year out of the traditional training pathway, usually before specialty training, and some choose to work as a clinical teaching fellow (CTF). CTFs primarily have responsibility for delivering hospital-based teaching to undergraduate medical students. Only a very small amount of literature is available regarding CTF posts, none of which has explored why doctors choose to undertake the role and their expectations of the job. This study aimed to explore the expectations and experiences of CTFs employed at NHS hospital Trusts in the West Midlands. METHODS: CTFs working in Trusts in the West Midlands region registered as students on the Education for Healthcare Professionals Post Graduate Certificate course at the University of Birmingham in August 2019 took part in a survey and a focus group. RESULTS: Twenty-eight CTFs participated in the survey and ten participated in the focus group. In the survey, participants reported choosing a CTF role due to an interest in teaching, wanting time out of training, and being unsure of which specialty to choose. Expectations for the year in post were directly related to reasons for choosing the role with participants expecting to develop teaching skills, and have a break from usual clinical work and rotations. The focus group identified five main themes relating to experiences starting their job, time pressures and challenges faced in post, how CTF jobs differed between Trusts, and future career plans. Broadly, participants reported enjoying their year in a post at a mid-year point but identified particular challenges such as difficulties in starting the role and facing time pressures in their day-to-day work. CONCLUSION: This study has provided a valuable insight into the CTF role and why doctors choose a CTF post and some of the challenges experienced, adding to the sparse amount of literature. Understanding post holders' experiences may contribute to optimisation of the role. Those employing CTFs should consider ensuring a formal handover process is in place between outgoing and incoming CTFs, having a lead person at their Trust responsible for evaluating changes suggested by CTFs, and the balance of contractual duties and personal development time.

A cross-sectional study examining the equitability of invitation, uptake and coverage for NHS Health Check.

BACKGROUND: The evidence for access to NHS Health Check (NHSHC) varies considerably across the country. This study examined the equity in invitation, uptake and coverage of NHSHC and impact of different invitation methods. METHODS: This patient-level cross-sectional study from 52 general practices in Walsall used adjusted logistic regressions to examine the association between patient characteristics (age, sex, ethnicity and deprivation) and NHSHC access. RESULTS: Over the 5-year study period, 61 464 people were eligible for NHSHC, 66% were invited, uptake was 74% and coverage was 55%. Males had lower odds of: invitation (AOR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.75-0.81), uptake (0.73, 95% CI: 0.70-0.77) and coverage (0.69, 95% CI: 0.66-0.71). Compared with White, the 'Other' ethnicity group (mixed backgrounds, other Asians that are not South Asians and other ethnic groups) had lower odds of: invitation (0.74, 95% CI: 0.67-0.81), uptake (0.86, 95% CI: 0.75-0.98) and coverage (0.74, 95% CI: 0.68-0.81). The most deprived areas had lower odds of invitation, uptake and coverage. Opportunistic invitation had a 25-fold increase in odds of uptake. CONCLUSIONS: The study has highlighted areas of inequities in access to NHSHC. The group most negatively affected were men, people from particular minority ethnic groups and people from deprived communities. Further actions are needed to reduce these inequities.

Randomised controlled trial testing effectiveness of feedback about lung age or exhaled CO combined with very brief advice for smoking cessation compared to very brief advice alone in North Macedonia: findings from the Breathe Well group.

INTRODUCTION: In 2019, smoking prevalence in North Macedonia was one of the world's highest at around 46% in adults. However, access to smoking cessation treatment is limited and no co-ordinated smoking cessation programmes are provided in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a three parallel-armed randomised controlled trial (n = 1368) to investigate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lung age (LA) or exhaled carbon monoxide (CO) feedback combined with very brief advice (VBA) to prompt smoking cessation compared with VBA alone, delivered by GPs in primary care in North Macedonia. All participants who decided to attempt to quit smoking were advised about accessing smoking cessation medications and were also offered behavioural support as part of the "ACT" component of VBA. Participants were aged ≥ 35 years, smoked ≥ 10 cigarettes per day, were recruited from 31 GP practices regardless of motivation to quit and were randomised (1:1:1) using a sequence generated before the start of recruitment. The primary outcome was biochemically validated 7-day point prevalence abstinence at 4 weeks (wks). Participants and GPs were not blinded to allocation after randomisation, however outcome assessors were blind to treatment allocation. RESULTS: There was no evidence of a difference in biochemically confirmed quitting between intervention and control at 4wks (VBA + LA RR 0.90 (97.5%CI: 0.35, 2.27); VBA + CO RR 1.04 (97.5%CI: 0.44, 2.44)), however the absolute number of quitters was small (VBA + LA 1.6%, VBA + CO 1.8%, VBA 1.8%). A similar lack of effect was observed at 12 and 26wks, apart from in the VBA + LA arm where the point estimate was significant but the confidence intervals were very wide. In both treatment arms, a larger proportion reported a reduction in cigarettes smoked per day at 4wks (VBA + LA 1.30 (1.10, 1.54); VBA + CO 1.23 (1.03, 1.49)) compared with VBA. The point estimates indicated a similar direction of effect at 12wks and 26wks, but differences were not statistically significant. Quantitative process measures indicated high fidelity to the intervention delivery protocols, but low uptake of behavioural and pharmacological support. VBA was the dominant intervention in the health economic analyses. CONCLUSION: Overall, there was no evidence that adding LA or CO to VBA increased quit rates. However, a small effect cannot be ruled out as the proportion quitting was low and therefore estimates were imprecise. There was some evidence that participants in the intervention arms were more likely to reduce the amount smoked, at least in the short term. More research is needed to find effective ways to support quitting in settings like North Macedonia where a strong smoking culture persists. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered at http://www.isrctn.com (ISRCTN54228638) on the 07/09/2018.

Cardiometabolic Disease Burden and Steroid Excretion in Benign Adrenal Tumors : A Cross-Sectional Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Benign adrenal tumors are commonly discovered on cross-sectional imaging. Mild autonomous cortisol secretion (MACS) is regularly diagnosed, but its effect on cardiometabolic disease in affected persons is ill defined. OBJECTIVE: To determine cardiometabolic disease burden and steroid excretion in persons with benign adrenal tumors with and without MACS. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: 14 endocrine secondary and tertiary care centers (recruitment from 2011 to 2016). PARTICIPANTS: 1305 prospectively recruited persons with benign adrenal tumors. MEASUREMENTS: Cortisol excess was defined by clinical assessment and the 1-mg overnight dexamethasone-suppression test (serum cortisol: <50 nmol/L, nonfunctioning adrenal tumor [NFAT]; 50 to 138 nmol/L, possible MACS [MACS-1]; >138 nmol/L and absence of typical clinical Cushing syndrome [CS] features, definitive MACS [MACS-2]). Net steroid production was assessed by multisteroid profiling of 24-hour urine by tandem mass spectrometry. RESULTS: Of the 1305 participants, 49.7% had NFAT (n = 649; 64.1% women), 34.6% had MACS-1 (n = 451; 67.2% women), 10.7% had MACS-2 (n = 140; 73.6% women), and 5.0% had CS (n = 65; 86.2% women). Prevalence and severity of hypertension were higher in MACS-2 and CS than NFAT (adjusted prevalence ratios [aPRs] for hypertension: MACS-2, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.27], and CS, 1.37 [CI, 1.16 to 1.62]; aPRs for use of ≥3 antihypertensives: MACS-2, 1.31 [CI, 1.02 to 1.68], and CS, 2.22 [CI, 1.62 to 3.05]). Type 2 diabetes was more prevalent in CS than NFAT (aPR, 1.62 [CI, 1.08 to 2.42]) and more likely to require insulin therapy for MACS-2 (aPR, 1.89 [CI, 1.01 to 3.52]) and CS (aPR, 3.06 [CI, 1.60 to 5.85]). Urinary multisteroid profiling revealed an increase in glucocorticoid excretion from NFAT over MACS-1 and MACS-2 to CS, whereas androgen excretion decreased. LIMITATIONS: Cross-sectional design; possible selection bias. CONCLUSION: A cardiometabolic risk condition, MACS predominantly affects women and warrants regular assessment for hypertension and type 2 diabetes. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Diabetes UK, the European Commission, U.K. Medical Research Council, the U.K. Academy of Medical Sciences, the Wellcome Trust, the U.K. National Institute for Health Research, the U.S. National Institutes of Health, the Claire Khan Trust Fund at University Hospitals Birmingham Charities, and the Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research.

The Clinical Teaching Fellow role: views of the Heads of Academy in the West Midlands.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly junior doctors are taking a year out of the traditional training pathway, and some opt to spend a year in a clinical teaching fellow (CTF) post. The CTF post mainly involves delivering hospital-based teaching to undergraduate medical students. In NHS hospital Trusts in the West Midlands, Heads of Academy (HoAs) have oversight of medical education at each Trust and therefore have responsibility for employing and directing the work of CTFs. Currently, only limited literature exists about the CTF role and exploring this from the point of view of different stakeholders in medical education is important in terms of contributing towards development of the role. This study aimed to explore the views of HoAs in the West Midlands region regarding CTFs employed at their Trusts. METHODS: All HoAs at the NHS Trust/teaching hospitals associated with the University of Birmingham were invited to take part in an in-depth interview about CTFs at their Trusts. Interviews were held via Zoom recorded using Zoom's recording functionality. Interview transcripts were then coded and analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Seven out of 11 HoAs participated in an interview. Seven themes were identified: CTF duties/Job role, Relationship with students, Benefits of having CTFs, Challenges associated with CTFs, Popularity of the role, What Trust offers CTFs, and Future of the role. Primarily it was felt that having CTFs at their Trust was beneficial in terms of the amount of teaching they provide for medical students. The HoAs were keen to ensure the CTF posts were of maximum benefit to both the post holders and to the Trusts where they were based. The CTF role is one that they felt would continue and develop in the future. CONCLUSION: This study has provided the first insight into the CTF role from the point of view of senior doctors with responsibility for delivery of undergraduate medical education. The consistency and reliability of teaching provided by the CTFs was identified as a key benefit of the role. Future work exploring the role from the point of view of post holders themselves would be beneficial to contribute to development of the role.

An assessment of the impact of formal preparation activities on performance in the University Clinical Aptitude Test (UCAT): a national study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown performance in the University Clinical Aptitude Test (UCAT) to be associated with measures of candidate socio-economic advantage such as parental occupation and type of school attended. It is possible that access to preparation support and materials may in part explain these associations. In this paper we determine whether use of formal preparation resources is associated with higher UCAT scores and whether differences in use of preparation resources exist between socio-demographic groups. METHODS: After completing the 2017 UCAT UK school-leaver candidates (n = 14,332) were asked to answer a questionnaire regarding their use of official UCAT and commercial resources, school-based support, and time spent preparing. Multiple linear and logistic regression models were used to evaluate the associations between preparedness, demographic characteristics and UCAT performance. RESULTS: Five thousand, four hundred thirty-nine (38%) candidates responded to the questionnaire. Use of freely available UCAT official practice tests, paid commercial materials, attendance at school-based preparation courses and spending more time preparing were significantly associated with higher UCAT scores. Candidates who were from less deprived backgrounds and attending independent or grammar schools were significantly more likely to use paid commercial materials and spend longer preparing. CONCLUSIONS: Reported use of preparation resources varies between candidates from different socio-demographic backgrounds and is associated independently with performance in the UCAT. Increasing the availability of freely available resources may mitigate some of these differences.

The Acute Kidney Outreach to Prevent Deterioration and Death trial: a large pilot study for a cluster-randomized trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The Acute Kidney Outreach to Reduce Deterioration and Death trial was a large pilot study for a cluster-randomized trial of acute kidney injury (AKI) outreach. METHODS: An observational control (before) phase was conducted in two teaching hospitals (9 miles apart) and their respective catchment areas. In the intervention (after) phase, a working-hours AKI outreach service operated for the intervention hospital/area for 20 weeks, with the other site acting as a control. All AKI alerts in both hospital and community patients were screened for inclusion. Major exclusion criteria were patients who were at the end of life, unlikely to benefit from outreach, lacking mental capacity or already referred to the renal team. The intervention arm included a model of escalation of renal care to AKI patients, depending on AKI stage. The 30-day primary outcome was a combination of death, or deterioration, as shown by any need for dialysis or progression in AKI stage. A total of 1762 adult patients were recruited; 744 at the intervention site during the after phase. RESULTS: A median of 3.0 non-medication recommendations and 0.5 medication-related recommendations per patient were made by the outreach team a median of 15.7 h after the AKI alert. Relatively low rates of the primary outcomes of death within 30 days (11-15%) or requirement for dialysis (0.4-3.7%) were seen across all four groups. In an exploratory analysis, at the intervention hospital during the after phase, there was an odds ratio for the combined primary outcome of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.42-1.26; P = 0.26). CONCLUSIONS: An AKI outreach service can provide standardized specialist care to those with AKI across a healthcare economy. Trials assessing AKI outreach may benefit from focusing on those patients with 'mid-range' prognosis, where nephrological intervention could have the most impact.

Dynamic risk assessment to improve quality of care in patients with atrial fibrillation: the 7th AFNET/EHRA Consensus Conference.

AIMS: The risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) and its complications continues to increase, despite good progress in preventing AF-related strokes. METHODS AND RESULTS: This article summarizes the outcomes of the 7th Consensus Conference of the Atrial Fibrillation NETwork (AFNET) and the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) held in Lisbon in March 2019. Sixty-five international AF specialists met to present new data and find consensus on pressing issues in AF prevention, management and future research to improve care for patients with AF and prevent AF-related complications. This article is the main outcome of an interactive, iterative discussion between breakout specialist groups and the meeting plenary. AF patients have dynamic risk profiles requiring repeated assessment and risk-based therapy stratification to optimize quality of care. Interrogation of deeply phenotyped datasets with outcomes will lead to a better understanding of the cardiac and systemic effects of AF, interacting with comorbidities and predisposing factors, enabling stratified therapy. New proposals include an algorithm for the acute management of patients with AF and heart failure, a call for a refined, data-driven assessment of stroke risk, suggestions for anticoagulation use in special populations, and a call for rhythm control therapy selection based on risk of AF recurrence. CONCLUSION: The remaining morbidity and mortality in patients with AF needs better characterization. Likely drivers of the remaining AF-related problems are AF burden, potentially treatable by rhythm control therapy, and concomitant conditions, potentially treatable by treating these conditions. Identifying the drivers of AF-related complications holds promise for stratified therapy.

Facilitating better postnatal care with women-held documents in The Gambia: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Women-held documents are a basic component of continuity of maternity care. The use and completion of women-held documents following discharge could improve treatment and care for postnatal women. Using a mixed-methods study design, we aimed to assess the number, type, quality and completeness of women-held discharge documents, identify factors contributing to document completeness and facilitators or barriers for effective use of the documents. METHODS: Documents given to women at discharge from three hospitals in the Greater Banjul Area, The Gambia, were reviewed for content and quality. All women completed a questionnaire on the use of the documents. Poisson regression was used to estimate factors predicting document completion. Semi-structured interviews (n = 21) and focus groups (n = 2) were carried out with healthcare professionals (HCPs). RESULTS: Nearly all (n = 211/212; 99%) women were given a document to take home. The most complete document (maternal record) had on average 17/26 (65%) items completed and 10% of women held an illegible document. None of the women's sociodemographic or clinical characteristics predicted document completeness. The following facilitators for effective use of documents were identified from the women's responses to the questionnaire and interviews with HCPs: 94% of women thought written information is important, 99% plan to have postnatal check-ups and 67% plan to use their documents, HCPs understand the importance of the documents and were familiar with the document's use and content. The following barriers for effective use of documents were identified: HCPs had too many women-held documents to complete at discharge, there is no national protocol and HCPs think women do not understand the documents due to a lack of education and that women often lose or forget their documents. CONCLUSIONS: Women-held documents are well established in The Gambia; though quality and completeness needs improving. Future research should determine the impact of using only one document at discharge, protocols and training on completeness, among other outcomes, and on ways to ensure all women are using the documents for their postnatal care.

Quantitative IFN-γ Release Assay and Tuberculin Skin Test Results to Predict Incident Tuberculosis. A Prospective Cohort Study.

Rationale: Development of diagnostic tools with improved predictive value for tuberculosis (TB) is a global research priority.Objectives: We evaluated whether implementing higher diagnostic thresholds than currently recommended for QuantiFERON Gold-in-Tube (QFT-GIT), T-SPOT.TB, and the tuberculin skin test (TST) might improve prediction of incident TB.Methods: Follow-up of a UK cohort of 9,610 adult TB contacts and recent migrants was extended by relinkage to national TB surveillance records (median follow-up 4.7 yr). Incidence rates and rate ratios, sensitivities, specificities, and predictive values for incident TB were calculated according to ordinal strata for quantitative results of QFT-GIT, T-SPOT.TB, and TST (with adjustment for prior bacillus Calmette-Guérin [BCG] vaccination).Measurements and Main Results: For all tests, incidence rates and rate ratios increased with the magnitude of the test result (P < 0.0001). Over 3 years' follow-up, there was a modest increase in positive predictive value with the higher thresholds (3.0% for QFT-GIT ≥0.35 IU/ml vs. 3.6% for ≥4.00 IU/ml; 3.4% for T-SPOT.TB ≥5 spots vs. 5.0% for ≥50 spots; and 3.1% for BCG-adjusted TST ≥5 mm vs. 4.3% for ≥15 mm). As thresholds increased, sensitivity to detect incident TB waned for all tests (61.0% for QFT-GIT ≥0.35 IU/ml vs. 23.2% for ≥4.00 IU/ml; 65.4% for T-SPOT.TB ≥5 spots vs. 27.2% for ≥50 spots; 69.7% for BCG-adjusted TST ≥5 mm vs. 28.1% for ≥15 mm).Conclusions: Implementation of higher thresholds for QFT-GIT, T-SPOT.TB, and TST modestly increases positive predictive value for incident TB, but markedly reduces sensitivity. Novel biomarkers or validated multivariable risk algorithms are required to improve prediction of incident TB.

The impact of mode of subsequent birth after obstetric anal sphincter injury on bowel function and related quality of life: a cohort study.

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: The objective was to assess the impact of mode of subsequent birth on bowel function and related quality of life (QoL) in pregnant women with previous obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASI). METHODS: A prospective cohort study, designed, undertaken and reported using the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology statement and checklist. All pregnant women with previous OASI recruited at a specialist antenatal OASI clinic in a tertiary hospital to discuss mode of subsequent birth, between 1 January 2014 and 31 October 2015. Women are counselled in line with local guidelines based on Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists Green-top recommendations. In addition to routine endoanal ultrasound scan (EAUS), women recruited to the study were asked to complete the validated Manchester Health Questionnaire (MHQ) at both 34 weeks' gestation and 6 months postnatally. RESULTS: Of the 175 study participants, 125 (71.4%) completed follow-up at 6 months. There was no significant change in frequency of bowel symptoms or QoL domain scores in women who had a subsequent vaginal birth compared with caesarean section. Multivariate analysis showed the odds of having poor "incontinence impact" (OR 2.91, 95% CI 1.03-8.21) and "physical limitations" (OR 4.56, 95% CI 1.02-20.45) were significantly higher for women who had a subsequent caesarean section. CONCLUSIONS: For women with previous OASI, a subsequent vaginal birth is suitable for those with no bowel symptoms and normal EAUS and caesarean section is reasonable for women who do not have normal bowel function and/or normal EAUS findings; however, for some of these women bowel symptoms and QoL may be worsened.

The ABA intervention for improving breastfeeding initiation and continuation: Feasibility study results.

The UK has low breastfeeding rates, with socioeconomic disparities. The Assets-based feeding help Before and After birth (ABA) intervention was designed to be inclusive and improve infant feeding behaviours. ABA is underpinned by the behaviour change wheel and offers an assets-based approach focusing on positive capabilities of individuals and communities, including use of a Genogram. This study aimed to investigate feasibility of intervention delivery within a randomised controlled trial (RCT). Nulliparous women ≥16 years, (n = 103) from two English sites were recruited and randomised to either intervention or usual care. The intervention - delivered through face-to-face, telephone and text message by trained Infant Feeding Helpers (IFHs) - ran from 30-weeks' gestation until 5-months postnatal. Outcomes included recruitment rates and follow-up at 3-days, 8-weeks and 6-months postnatal, with collection of future full trial outcomes via questionnaires. A mixed-methods process evaluation included qualitative interviews with 30 women, 13 IFHs and 17 maternity providers; IFH contact logs; and fidelity checking of antenatal contact recordings. This study successfully recruited women, including teenagers, from socioeconomically disadvantaged areas; postnatal follow-up rates were 68.0%, 85.4% and 80.6% at 3-days, 8-weeks and 6-months respectively. Breastfeeding at 8-weeks was obtained for 95.1% using routine data for non-responders. It was possible to recruit and train peer supporters to deliver the intervention with adequate fidelity. The ABA intervention was acceptable to women, IFHs and maternity services. There was minimal contamination and no evidence of intervention-related harm. In conclusion, the intervention is feasible to deliver within an RCT, and a definitive trial required.

Biological variation of measured and estimated glomerular filtration rate in patients with chronic kidney disease.

When assessing changes in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) it is important to differentiate pathological change from intrinsic biological and analytical variation. GFR is measured using complex reference methods (e.g., iohexol clearance). In clinical practice measurement of creatinine and cystatin C are used in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease [MDRD] or Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI] equations to provide estimated GFR. Here we studied the biological variability of measured and estimated GFR in twenty nephrology outpatients (10 male, 10 female; median age 71, range 50-80 years) with moderate CKD (GFR 30-59 ml/min per 1.73 m2). Patients underwent weekly GFR measurement by iohexol clearance over four consecutive weeks. Simultaneously, GFR was estimated using the MDRD, CKD-EPIcreatinine, CKD-EPIcystatinC and CKD-EPIcreatinine+cystatinC equations. Within-subject biological variation expressed as a percentage [95% confidence interval] for the MDRD (5.0% [4.3-6.1]), CKD-EPIcreatinine (5.3% [4.5-6.4]), CKD-EPIcystatinC (5.3% [4.5-6.5]), and CKD-EPIcreatinine+cystatinC (5.0% [4.3-6.2]) equations were broadly equivalent. The within-subject biological variation for MDRD and CKD- EPIcreatinine+cystatinC estimated GFR were each significantly lower than that of the measured GFR (6.7% [5.6-8.2]). Reference change values, the point at which a true change in a biomarker in an individual can be inferred to have occurred with 95% probability were calculated. By the MDRD equation, positive and negative reference change values were 15.1% and 13.1% respectively. If an individual's baseline MDRD estimated GFR (ml/min per 1.73 m2) was 59, significant increases or decreases would be to values over 68 or under 51 respectively. Within-subject variability of estimated GFR was lower than measured GFR. Reference change values can be used to understand GFR changes in clinical practice. Thus, estimates of GFR are at least as reliable as measured GFR for monitoring patients over time.

Diabetes mellitus and latent tuberculosis infection: baseline analysis of a large UK cohort.

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a UK cohort study which enrolled participants at risk of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI, defined as a positive result for either of the two interferon gamma release assays). Binomial regression with a log link was used to estimate crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% CIs for the relationship between diabetes mellitus (DM) and LTBI. Adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index and the presence of other immunocompromising conditions, DM was associated with a 15% higher prevalence of LTBI (adjusted PR=1.15, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.30, p=0.025). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PREDICT is registered on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01162265).

Model-based evaluation of the long-term cost-effectiveness of systematic case-finding for COPD in primary care.

INTRODUCTION: 'One-off' systematic case-finding for COPD using a respiratory screening questionnaire is more effective and cost-effective than routine care at identifying new cases. However, it is not known whether early diagnosis and treatment is beneficial in the longer term. We estimated the long-term cost-effectiveness of a regular case-finding programme in primary care. METHODS: A Markov decision analytic model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of a 3-yearly systematic case-finding programme targeted to ever smokers aged ≥50 years with the current routine diagnostic process in UK primary care. Patient-level data on case-finding pathways was obtained from a large randomised controlled trial. Information on the natural history of COPD and treatment effects was obtained from a linked COPD cohort, UK primary care database and published literature. The discounted lifetime cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was calculated from a health service perspective. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of systematic case-finding versus current care was £16 596 per additional QALY gained, with a 78% probability of cost-effectiveness at a £20 000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. The base case result was robust to multiple one-way sensitivity analyses. The main drivers were response rate to the initial screening questionnaire and attendance rate for the confirmatory spirometry test. DISCUSSION: Regular systematic case-finding for COPD using a screening questionnaire in primary care is likely to be cost-effective in the long-term despite uncertainties in treatment effectiveness. Further knowledge of the natural history of case-found patients and the effectiveness of their management will improve confidence to implement such an approach.

Development and external validation of predictive models for prevalent and recurrent atrial fibrillation: a protocol for the analysis of the CATCH ME combined dataset.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is caused by different mechanisms but current treatment strategies do not target these mechanisms. Stratified therapy based on mechanistic drivers and biomarkers of AF have the potential to improve AF prevention and management outcomes. We will integrate mechanistic insights with known pathophysiological drivers of AF in models predicting recurrent AF and prevalent AF to test hypotheses related to AF mechanisms and response to rhythm control therapy. METHODS: We will harmonise and combine baseline and outcome data from 12 studies collected by six centres from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands which assess prevalent AF or recurrent AF. A Delphi process and statistical selection will be used to identify candidate clinical predictors. Prediction models will be developed in patients with AF for AF recurrence and AF-related outcomes, and in patients with or without AF at baseline for prevalent AF. Models will be used to test mechanistic hypotheses and investigate the predictive value of plasma biomarkers. DISCUSSION: This retrospective, harmonised, individual patient data analysis will use information from 12 datasets collected in five European countries. It is envisioned that the outcome of this analysis would provide a greater understanding of the factors associated with recurrent and prevalent AF, potentially allowing development of stratified approaches to prevention and therapy management.

Polycystic ovary syndrome, androgen excess, and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in women: A longitudinal study based on a United Kingdom primary care database.

BACKGROUND: Androgen excess is a defining feature of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), which affects 10% of women and represents a lifelong metabolic disorder, with increased risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular events. Previous studies have suggested an increased risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in individuals with PCOS and implicated androgen excess as a potential driver. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We carried out a retrospective longitudinal cohort study utilizing a large primary care database in the United Kingdom, evaluating NAFLD rates in 63,120 women with PCOS and 121,064 age-, body mass index (BMI)-, and location-matched control women registered from January 2000 to May 2016. In 2 independent cohorts, we also determined the rate of NAFLD in women with a measurement of serum testosterone (n = 71,061) and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG; n = 49,625). We used multivariate Cox models to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for NAFLD and found that women with PCOS had an increased rate of NAFLD (HR = 2.23, 95% CI 1.86-2.66, p < 0.001), also after adjusting for BMI or dysglycemia. Serum testosterone >3.0 nmol/L was associated with an increase in NAFLD (HR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.16-4.53, p = 0.017 for 3-3.49 nmol/L and HR = 2.40, 95% CI 1.24-4.66, p = 0.009 for >3.5 nmol/L). Mirroring this finding, SHBG <30 nmol/L was associated with increased NAFLD hazard (HR = 4.75, 95% CI 2.44-9.25, p < 0.001 for 20-29.99 nmol/L and HR = 4.98, 95% CI 2.45-10.11, p < 0.001 for <20 nmol/L). Limitations of this study include its retrospective nature, absence of detailed information on criteria used to diagnosis PCOS and NAFLD, and absence of data on laboratory assays used to measure serum androgens. CONCLUSIONS: We found that women with PCOS have an increased rate of NAFLD. In addition to increased BMI and dysglycemia, androgen excess contributes to the development of NAFLD in women with PCOS. In women with PCOS-related androgen excess, systematic NAFLD screening should be considered.

Test-treatment RCTs are susceptible to bias: a review of the methodological quality of randomized trials that evaluate diagnostic tests.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing recognition for the need to expand our evidence base for the clinical effectiveness of diagnostic tests. Many international bodies are calling for diagnostic randomized controlled trials to provide the most rigorous evidence of impact to patient health. Although these so-called test-treatment RCTs are very challenging to undertake due to their methodological complexity, they have not been subjected to a systematic appraisal of their methodological quality. The extent to which these trials may be producing biased results therefore remains unknown. We set out to address this issue by conducting a methodological review of published test-treatment trials to determine how often they implement adequate methods to limit bias and safeguard the validity of results. METHODS: We ascertained all test-treatment RCTs published 2004-2007, indexed in CENTRAL, including RCTs which randomized patients to diagnostic tests and measured patient outcomes after treatment. Tests used for screening, monitoring or prognosis were excluded. We assessed adequacy of sequence generation, allocation concealment and intention-to-treat, appropriateness of primary analyses, blinding and reporting of power calculations, and extracted study characteristics including the primary outcome. RESULTS: One hundred three trials compared 105 control with 119 experimental interventions, and reported 150 primary outcomes. Randomization and allocation concealment were adequate in 57 and 37% of trials. Blinding was uncommon (patients 5%, clinicians 4%, outcome assessors 21%), as was an adequate intention-to-treat analysis (29%). Overall 101 of 103 trials (98%) were at risk of bias, as judged using standard Cochrane criteria. CONCLUSION: Test-treatment trials are particularly susceptible to attrition and inadequate primary analyses, lack of blinding and under-powering. These weaknesses pose much greater methodological and practical challenges to conducting reliable RCT evaluations of test-treatment strategies than standard treatment interventions. We suggest a cautious approach that first examines whether a test-treatment intervention can accommodate the methodological safeguards necessary to minimize bias, and highlight that test-treatment RCTs require different methods to ensure reliability than standard treatment trials. Please see the companion paper to this article: http://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12874-016-0286-0 .