The feasibility, repeatability, validity and responsiveness of the EQ-5D-3L in Krio for patients with stroke in Sierra Leone.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the feasibility, repeatability, validity and responsiveness of the EQ-5D-3L in Krio for patients with stroke in Sierra Leone, the first psychometric assessment of the EQ-5D-3L to be conducted in patients with stroke in Sub Saharan Africa. METHODS: A prospective stroke register at two tertiary government hospitals recruited all patients with the WHO definition of stroke and followed patients up at seven days, 90 days and one year post stroke. The newly translated EQ-5D-3L, Barthel Index (BI), modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), a measure of stroke severity, were collected by trained researchers, face to face during admission and via phone at follow up. Feasibility was assessed by completion rate and proportion of floor/ceiling effects. Internal consistency was assessed by inter item correlations (IIC) and Cronbach's alpha. Repeatability of the EQ-5D-3L was examined using test-retest, EQ-5D-3L utility scores at 90 days were compared to EQ-5D-3L utility scores at one year in the same individuals, whose Barthel Index had remained within the minimally clinical important difference. Known group validity was assessed by stroke severity. Convergent validity was assessed against the BI, using Spearman's rho. Responsiveness was assessed in patients whose BI improved or deteriorated from seven to 90 days. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using the UK and Zimbabwe value sets, to evaluate the effect of value set, in a subgroup of patients with no formal education to evaluate the influence of patient educational attainment, and using the mRS instead of the BI to evaluate the influence of utilising an alternative functional scale. RESULTS: The EQ-5D-3L was completed in 373/460 (81.1%), 360/367 (98.1%) and 299/308 (97.1%) eligible patients at seven days, 90 days and one year post stroke. Missing item data was low overall, but was highest in the anxiety/depression dimension 1.3% (5/373). Alpha was 0.81, 0.88 and 0.86 at seven days, 90 days and one year post stroke and IIC were within pre-specified ranges. Repeatability of the EQ-5D-3L was moderate to poor, weighted Kappa 0.23-0.49. EQ-5D-3L utility was significantly associated with stroke severity at all timepoints. Convergent validity with BI was strong overall and for shared subscales. EQ-5D-3L was moderately responsive to both improvement Cohen's D 0.55 (95% CI:0.15-0.94) and deterioration 0.92 (95% CI:0.29-1.55). Completion rates were similar in patients with no formal education 148/185 (80.0%) vs those with any formal education 225/275 (81.8%), and known group validity for stroke severity in patients with no formal education was strong. Using the Zimbabwe value set instead of the UK value set, and using the mRS instead of the BI did not change the direction or significance of results. CONCLUSIONS: The EQ-5D-3L for stroke in Sierra Leone was feasible, and responsive including in patients with no formal education. However, repeatability was moderate to poor, which may be due to the study design, but should add a degree of caution in the analysis of repeated measures of EQ-5D-3L over time in this population. Known group validity and convergent validity with BI and mRS were strong. Further research should assess the EQ-5D in the general population, examine test-retest reliability over a shorter time period and assess the acceptability and validity of the anxiety/depression dimension against other validated mental health instruments. Development of an EQ-5D value set for West Africa should be a research priority.

Ethnic inequalities in the impact of COVID-19 on primary care consultations: a time series analysis of 460,084 individuals with multimorbidity in South London.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic caused rapid changes in primary care delivery in the UK, with concerns that certain groups of the population may have faced increased barriers to access. This study assesses the impact of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic on primary care consultations for individuals with multimorbidity and identifies ethnic inequalities. METHODS: A longitudinal study based on monthly data from primary care health records of 460,084 patients aged ≥18 years from 41 GP practices in South London, from February 2018 to March 2021. Descriptive analysis and interrupted time series (ITS) models were used to analyse the effect of the pandemic on primary care consultations for people with multimorbidity and to identify if the effect varied by ethnic groups and consultation type. RESULTS: Individuals with multimorbidity experienced a smaller initial fall in trend at the start of the pandemic. Their primary care consultation rates remained stable (879 (95% CI 869-890) per 1000 patients in February to 882 (870-894) March 2020), compared with a 7% decline among people without multimorbidity (223 consultations (95% CI 221-226) to 208 (205-210)). The gap in consultations between the two groups reduced after July 2020. The effect among individuals with multimorbidity varied by ethnic group. Ethnic minority groups experienced a slightly larger fall at the start of the pandemic. Individuals of Black, Asian, and Other ethnic backgrounds also switched from face-to-face to telephone at a higher rate than other ethnic groups. The largest fall in face-to-face consultations was observed among people from Asian backgrounds (their consultation rates declined from 676 (659-693) in February to 348 (338-359) in April 2020), which may have disproportionately affected their quality of care. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected primary care utilisation in patients with multimorbidity. While there is evidence of a successful needs-based prioritisation of multimorbidity patients within primary care at the start of the pandemic, inequalities among ethnic minority groups were found. Strengthening disease management for these groups may be necessary to control widening inequalities in future health outcomes.

Mapping PedsQL™ scores to CHU9D utility weights for children with chronic conditions in a multi-ethnic and deprived metropolitan population.

PURPOSE: The Child Health Utility-9 Dimensions (CHU9D) is a patient-reported outcome measure to generate Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs), recommended for economic evaluations of interventions to inform funding decisions. When the CHU9D is not available, mapping algorithms offer an opportunity to convert other paediatric instruments, such as the Paediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ (PedsQL), onto the CHU9D scores. This study aims to validate current PedsQL to CHU9D mappings in a sample of children and young people of a wide age range (0 to 16 years of age) and with chronic conditions. New algorithms with improved predictive accuracy are also developed. METHODS: Data from the Children and Young People's Health Partnership (CYPHP) were used (N = 1735). Four regression models were estimated: ordinal least squared, generalized linear model, beta-binomial and censored least absolute deviations. Standard goodness of fit measures were used for validation and to assess new algorithms. RESULTS: While previous algorithms perform well, performance can be enhanced. OLS was the best estimation method for the final equations at the total, dimension and item PedsQL scores levels. The CYPHP mapping algorithms include age as an important predictor and more non-linear terms compared with previous work. CONCLUSION: The new CYPHP mappings are particularly relevant for samples with children and young people with chronic conditions living in deprived and urban settings. Further validation in an external sample is required. Trial registration number NCT03461848; pre-results.

Associations Between Medication Class and Subsequent Augmentation of Depression Treatment in Privately Insured US Adults.

IMPORTANCE: Treatment augmentation is an important clinical decision in the pharmacotherapy for depression, yet few studies have examined the rates of treatment augmentation by medication class. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine which initial pharmacotherapies for depression are more likely than others to result in subsequent treatment augmentation. METHODS: This study is a retrospective cohort analysis of administrative data of 214,705 privately insured US adults between the age of 18 and 64 years who were diagnosed with a new episode of depression in 2009. Propensity score-adjusted logistic regression and Cox regression were used to model the effect of the class of initial monotherapy on treatment augmentation. Risk adjustors included depression severity, comorbidities, provider type, insurance, and demographic characteristics. EXPOSURE: The class of initial monotherapy and the health care provider type were the main independent variables of interest. MAIN OUTCOME: The outcome was the augmentation of monotherapy. RESULTS: Thirty-four percent of individuals received treatment augmentation. Compared with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor monotherapy, second-generation antipsychotics as the initial treatment were associated with significant increase in the likelihood of augmentation compared with the other classes (hazards ratio, 2.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.51-2.68). This result was corroborated after propensity score adjustment (odds ratio, 2.85; 95% CI, 2.70-3.00) when comparing second-generation antipsychotics to the other classes of pharmacotherapy. The other significant predictor of treatment augmentation was the provider type. Mental health specialists were 27% more likely to augment a treatment compared with generalists (hazards ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.25-1.30). CONCLUSIONS: The type of initial antidepressant therapy is associated with the chances of treatment augmentation. Second-generation antipsychotics progressed to augmentation more rapidly than the other classes.

Development of the life impact burn recovery evaluation (LIBRE) profile: assessing burn survivors' social participation.

PURPOSE: Measuring the impact burn injuries have on social participation is integral to understanding and improving survivors' quality of life, yet there are no existing instruments that comprehensively measure the social participation of burn survivors. This project aimed to develop the Life Impact Burn Recovery Evaluation Profile (LIBRE), a patient-reported multidimensional assessment for understanding the social participation after burn injuries. METHODS: 192 questions representing multiple social participation areas were administered to a convenience sample of 601 burn survivors. Exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were used to identify the underlying structure of the data. Using item response theory methods, a Graded Response Model was applied for each identified sub-domain. The resultant multidimensional LIBRE Profile can be administered via Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) or fixed short forms. RESULTS: The study sample included 54.7% women with a mean age of 44.6 (SD 15.9) years. The average time since burn injury was 15.4 years (0-74 years) and the average total body surface area burned was 40% (1-97%). The CFA indicated acceptable fit statistics (CFI range 0.913-0.977, TLI range 0.904-0.974, RMSEA range 0.06-0.096). The six unidimensional scales were named: relationships with family and friends, social interactions, social activities, work and employment, romantic relationships, and sexual relationships. The marginal reliability of the full item bank and CATs ranged from 0.84 to 0.93, with ceiling effects less than 15% for all scales. CONCLUSIONS: The LIBRE Profile is a promising new measure of social participation following a burn injury that enables burn survivors and their care providers to measure social participation.

Region and Insurance Plan Type Influence Discharge Disposition After Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: Evidence From the Privately Insured US Population.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about regional variation in the use of postacute care services after elective procedures, such as total hip or knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA), and how insurance type may influence it. The goal of this study is to assess the influence of region and insurance arrangements on discharge disposition. METHODS: A representative sample of the privately insured US population with THA or TKA in 2009 or 2010 was obtained from the MarketScan database applying individual-level weights from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Multivariate logistic regression was used to predict the odds of being discharged to an extended care facility (ECF) compared with being discharged home. The model adjusted for region, insurance plan type, sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and length of stay. RESULTS: Large variability was observed in ECF use across the US. Patients in the Northeast were 2.5 times more likely to receive care at an ECF compared with patients in the South (odds ratio [OR] = 2.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.97-3.19). Enrollees in noncapitated plans such as fee-for-service plans or exclusive provider organizations were less likely to be discharged to an ECF compared with health maintenance organizations/preferred provider organizations with capitation enrollees (OR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.57-0.94; OR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.34-0.74, respectively). CONCLUSION: Region and private insurance plan arrangements are related to extended care use among THA and TKA patients. Understanding regional variation in discharge disposition provides policy makers with important information as to where to focus new tests of hip and knee procedures such as same day arthroplasty.

Functional Status and Hospital Readmissions Using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

BACKGROUND: Hospital readmissions are expensive and they may signal poor quality of care. Whether functional status is related to hospital readmissions using a representative U.S sample remains unexplored . OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the relationship between functional status and all-cause 30-day hospital readmissions using a representative sample of the US population. DESIGN: This was a retrospective observational study (2003-2011). PATIENTS: The study included 3,772 patients who completed the SF-12 before being hospitalized. Three hundred and eighteen (8.4%) were readmitted within 30 days after being discharged. MEASUREMENTS: The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) was employed. Functional status was measured with the Short-Form 12-Item Health Survey Version 2® (SF-12). The probability of being readmitted was estimated using a logistic model controlling for demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, insurance coverage, physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) summaries of the SF-12, reason for hospitalization, length of hospital stay, region, and residential area. RESULTS: A one-unit difference in PCS reduced the odds of readmission by 2% (odds ratio 0.98 [95% CI, 0.97 to 0.99]; p < 0.001), which implies an 18% reduction in the odds of readmissions for a ten-unit difference (one standard deviation) in PCS. The c-statistic of the model was 0.72. CONCLUSION: Baseline physical function is associated with hospital readmissions. The SF-12 improves the ability to identify patients at high risk of hospital readmission.

Shared Decision Making and the Use of Screening Mammography in Women Younger Than 50 Years of Age.

Current breast cancer screening guidelines promote the use of shared decision making for women younger than 50 years of age, yet their effect on mammography utilization is largely unknown. This study aimed to examine the effect of two elements of shared decision making on the use of mammogram screening: patient-perceived choice and patient-provider communication. Data were obtained from HINTS 4, a nationally representative survey of the U.S. population, administered from 2011 to 2013. Choice was measured with the question "Has a doctor ever told you that you could choose whether or not to have a mammogram?" Communication was measured using a 7-item scale (range: 7-28; higher scores denote better communication). Binary logistic regression models assessed the effect of patient choice and communication on ever having a mammogram using weighted sample data. The sample included 1,085 women younger than 50 years of age: 31% of women perceived having a choice to undergo mammography. The mean patient-provider communication score was 22.8. Those who thought they were given a choice regarding mammography were more likely to have a mammogram relative to those who did not think a choice was given by the provider. Patient-provider communication had no significant association with mammography utilization. Patient perceived choice, but not patient-provider communication, is positively associated with mammography utilization in women younger than 50 years of age.

Quality of life and quality-adjusted life years after stroke in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and negatively affects health-related quality of life (HRQoL). HRQoL after stroke is understudied in Africa and there are no reports of quality-adjusted life years after stroke (QALYs) in African countries. We determined the impact of stroke on HRQoL after stroke in Sierra Leone. We calculated QALYs at 1 year post-stroke and determined sociodemographic and clinical variables associated with HRQoL and QALYs in this population. METHODS: A prospective stroke register was established at the two-principal adult tertiary government hospitals in Freetown, Sierra Leone. Participants were followed up at 7, 90 days, and 1 year post-stroke to capture all-cause mortality and EQ-5D-3L data. QALYs were calculated at the patient level using EQ-5D-3L utility values and survival data from the register, following the area under the curve method. Utilities were based on the UK and Zimbabwe (as a sensitivity analysis) EQ-5D value sets, as there is no Sierra Leonean or West African value set. Explanatory models were developed based on previous literature to assess variables associated with HRQoL and QALYs at 1 year after stroke. To address missing values, Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), with linear and logistic regression models for continuous and binary variables, respectively, were used. RESULTS: EQ-5D-3L data were available for 373/460 (81.1%), 360/367 (98.1%), and 299/308 (97.1%) participants at 7, 90 days, and 1 year after stroke. For stroke survivors, median EQ-5D-3L utility increased from 0.20 (95% CI: -0.16 to 0.59) at 7 days post-stroke to 0.76 (0.47 to 1.0) at 90 days and remained stable at 1 year 0.76 (0.49 to 1.0). Mean QALYs at 1 year after stroke were 0.28 (SD: 0.35) and closely associated with stroke severity. Older age, lower educational attainment, patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage and undetermined stroke types all had lower QALYs and lower HRQoL, while being the primary breadwinner was associated with higher HRQoL. Sensitivity analysis with the Zimbabwe value set did not significantly change regression results but did influence the absolute values with Zimbabwe utility values being higher, with fewer utility values less than 0. CONCLUSION: We generated QALYs after stroke for the first time in an African country. QALYs were significantly lower than studies from outside Africa, partially explained by the high mortality rate in our cohort. Further research is needed to develop appropriate value sets for West African countries and to examine QALYs lost due to stroke over longer time periods. DATA AVAILABILITY: The Stroke in Sierra Leone anonymized dataset is available on request to researchers, see data access section.

Cost-effectiveness of the children and young People's health partnership (CYPHP) model of integrated care versus enhanced usual care: analysis of a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial in South London.

Background: Integration of paediatric health services across primary and secondary care holds great promise for the management of chronic conditions, yet limited evidence exists on its cost-effectiveness. This paper reports the results of the economic evaluation of the Children and Young People's Health Partnership (CYPHP) aimed at integrating care for children with common chronic conditions (asthma, eczema, and constipation). Methods: Cost-effectiveness, cost-utility and cost-benefit analyses were conducted alongside a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial involving 97,970 children in 70 general practices in South London, including 1,731 participants with asthma, eczema and or constipation with self-reported health-related quality of life measures. Analyses considered the National Health Service (NHS)/Personal Social Service (PSS) and societal perspectives, and time horizons of 6 and 12-months. Costs included intervention delivery, health service use (primary and secondary care), referrals to social services, and time lost from work and school. Health outcomes were measured through the Paediatric Quality of Life Inventory, the Child Health Utility 9-Dimensions, and monetarised benefit combining Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) for children and parental mental well-being. Results present incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), compared to a willingness to pay threshold (WTP) of £20,000-30,000/QALY, and net monetary benefit (NMB), with deterministic sensitivity analyses. Findings: At 6 months, from the NHS/PSS perspective, CYPHP is not cost-effective (ICER = £721,000/QALY), and this result holds at 12 months (ICER = £45,586/QALY). However, under the societal perspective CYPHP falls within WTP thresholds (ICER = £22,966/QALY), with a probability of being cost-effective between 0.4 and 0.6 at £20,000/QALY and £30,000/QALY, respectively. The cost-benefit analysis yields a positive NMB of CYPHP at 12 months £109 under the societal perspective, with similar probabilistic results. Interpretation: CYPHP was not cost-effective at 6 months or under the NHS/PSS perspective. Trends towards cost-effectiveness are observed once a longer time horizon and a more inclusive perspective on effects is considered. Further research beyond 12 months is needed as the model becomes firmly embedded into the paediatric healthcare delivery system. Funding: This research was funded by Guy's and St Thomas' Charity, Lambeth and Southwark Clinical Commissioning Groups. The funders had no role in the writing of the manuscript, decision to submit it for publication, or any other process involved in the research.

Disease patterns in high-cost individuals with multimorbidity: a retrospective cross-sectional study in primary care.

BACKGROUND: 'High-cost' individuals with multimorbidity account for a disproportionately large share of healthcare costs and are at most risk of poor quality of care and health outcomes. AIM: To compare high-cost with lower-cost individuals with multimorbidity and assess whether these populations can be clustered based on similar disease patterns. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional study based on 2019/2020 electronic medical records from adults registered to primary care practices (n = 41) in a London borough. METHOD: Multimorbidity is defined as having ≥2 long-term conditions (LTCs). Primary care costs reflected consultations, which were costed based on provider and consultation types. High cost was defined as the top 20% of individuals in the cost distribution. Descriptive analyses identified combinations of 32 LTCs and their contribution to costs. Latent class analysis explored clustering patterns. RESULTS: Of 386 238 individuals, 101 498 (26%) had multimorbidity. The high-cost group (n = 20 304) incurred 53% of total costs and had 6833 unique disease combinations, about three times the diversity of the lower-cost group (n = 81 194). The trio of anxiety, chronic pain, and depression represented the highest share of costs (5%). High-cost individuals were best grouped into five clusters, but no cluster was dominated by a single LTC combination. In three of five clusters, mental health conditions were the most prevalent. CONCLUSION: High-cost individuals with multimorbidity have extensive heterogeneity in LTCs, with no single LTC combination dominating their primary care costs. The frequent presence of mental health conditions in this population supports the need to enhance coordination of mental and physical health care to improve outcomes and reduce costs.

A scoping review of stroke registers in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Stroke registers are recommended as a key priority by the Lancet Neurology World Stroke Organization Commission for Stroke, 2023, and the African Stroke Leaders' Summit, 2022. AIMS: This scoping review aims to map where stroke registers have been implemented in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The article then compares and critiques the methods and definitions used and summarizes key results from the registers. The scoping review searched EMBASE, MEDLINE, and CABI Global Health databases and included all studies with a prospective longitudinal design in SSA, where adult acute stroke was the primary condition studied. Articles were screened against inclusion and exclusion criteria independently by two authors. SUMMARY: We identified 42 unique stroke registers from 48 individual studies. The registers were located in 19 countries, with 19 from East Africa, 15 West Africa, 6 Central Africa, and 2 from Southern Africa. Cumulatively, the registers recruited 12,345 participants with stroke, the median number of participants was 183 (interquartile range (IQR): 121-312), and the range was 50-1018. Only one study was a population-based register, and 41 were hospital-based registers. Of the hospital-based registers, 29 were single site, 10 were conducted at two sites, and 2 at three sites. Twenty-three (54.7%) of the registers were located in the capital city of their respective country, and only one of the hospital-based registers was in a self-described rural area. Length of recruitment ranged from 4 months to 6 years; the median length of recruitment was 12 months. Methodology and definitions were heterogenous between the registers. Only seven (19.4%) registers referenced the WHO STEPwise approach to implementing stroke registers. Twenty-seven (64.3%) registers used the WHO definition of stroke. The mean neuroimaging rate was 84%, and ranged from 0% to 100%. Stroke severity was measured using the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) in 22 (52.4%) registers, four registers used the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), two registers used the miniNIHSS, one used the Scandinavian Stroke Scale, one modified Rankin Scale (mRS), and 11 registers did not report a stroke severity measure. Seventeen (40.5%) registers used the mRS to measure function, six registers used Barthel Index alone, and three registers used both mRS and Barthel Index. Only two registers included a quality-of-life measure, the EQ-5D. Eight registers included a quality-of-care measure, and 26 (61.9%) registers recorded socioeconomic status or a socioeconomic status proxy, most frequently educational attainment. CONCLUSIONS: This scoping review found high heterogeneity of methods and definitions used by stroke registers, with low uptake of the WHO stepwise method of stroke surveillance. A drive to standardize methodology would improve the comparability of stroke data in SSA. The shared use of educational attainment by registers in our review may enable future meta-analyses of inequities in stroke in SSA. Incorporating health-related quality-of-life measures, such as EQ-5D, into stroke registers should be encouraged, bringing a patient perspective, and allow the estimation of quality-adjusted life years lost to stroke. Agreement on a standardized register methodology or further promotion and uptake of the WHO stepwise method is essential to produce comparable data to improve stroke prevention and care.

Effect of the Children and Young People's Health Partnership model of paediatric integrated care on health service use and child health outcomes: a pragmatic two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Paediatric health systems across high-income countries are facing avoidable adverse outcomes and increasing demands and costs. The aim of this study was to compare the effect of an enhanced usual care model with that of an integrated health-care model that offers local health clinics for general paediatric problems and early intervention and care for children and young people with tracer conditions. METHODS: In this pragmatic two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial, we compared the Children and Young People's Health Partnership (CYPHP) model of care versus enhanced usual care (EUC) among children registered at general practices in south London, UK. The CYPHP trial intervention was delivered between April 1, 2018, and June 30, 2021, and children younger than 16 years during the intervention period and registered at study practices on June 30, 2021, were included in the analysis. A restricted randomisation (1:1) following a computer-generated sequence was done by a masked independent statistician at the level of general practice cluster, stratified by borough (Lambeth or Southwark). Cluster allocation and data collection were masked, with unmasking of trial statisticians before analysis. The CYPHP model comprised all elements of EUC (electronic decision support, a primary care hotline, health checks, self-management support and health promotion, and resilience building and mental health first aid) plus local child health clinics delivered by paediatricians and general practitioners, and a nurse-led early intervention service for children with tracer conditions (asthma, eczema, and constipation). Primary outcomes were non-elective admissions (NELA; admissions coded as an emergency) among the whole trial population up to June 30, 2021, and paediatric quality of life (Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory [PedsQL]) among participants with tracer conditions at 6 months after recruitment. Secondary outcomes were primary and secondary care use, child mental health, parental wellbeing, standardised symptom scores for asthma, eczema, and constipation, health-care quality, and child absences from school and parent absences from work. The trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03461848, and is complete. FINDINGS: The trial was conducted between April 1, 2018, and Dec 31, 2021. In total, 23 general practice clusters, consisting of 70 practices with 97 970 registered children, were randomised to CYPHP (n=11) or EUC (n=12). We found no effect, at the population level, of CYPHP versus EUC on non-elective admissions during the intervention period (adjusted mean incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1·00 [95% CI 0·91 to 1·10], p=0·99). Among children with tracer conditions, we found no difference in paediatric quality of life (PedsQL score) at 6 months (adjusted mean difference -0·033 [95% CI -0·122 to 0·055], p=0·46). As a secondary outcome, among children with tracer conditions and requiring care, NELA rates at 12 months did not differ between the CYPHP and EUC groups (66·1 per 1000 person-years vs 75·3 per 1000 person-years; adjusted mean IRR 0·87 [0·61-1·22], p=0·42). In children requiring care, a statistically significant improvement was observed in eczema symptoms at 6 months from baseline in the CYPHP group versus the EUC group (adjusted mean difference -1·370 [-2·630 to -0·122], p=0·032). Quality of asthma care significantly improved among children in the CYPHP group compared with children in the EUC group. No significant improvement was seen for all other secondary outcomes. INTERPRETATION: Although the CYPHP trial found a null effect for the primary outcomes, we found clinically important improvements in some secondary outcomes including care quality. Previous research has shown that large-scale system change requires time to observe a potential positive effect. FUNDING: Guy's and St Thomas Charity, the Lambeth and Southwark Clinical Commissioning Groups, and Evelina London Children's Hospital.

Stroke in Sierra Leone: Case fatality rate and functional outcome after stroke in Freetown.

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on long-term outcomes after stroke in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Current estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) in SSA are based on small sample sizes with varying study design and report heterogeneous results. AIMS: We report CFR and functional outcomes from a large, prospective, longitudinal cohort of stroke patients in Sierra Leone and describe factors associated with mortality and functional outcome. METHODS: A prospective longitudinal stroke register was established at both adult tertiary government hospitals in Freetown, Sierra Leone. It recruited all patients ⩾ 18 years with stroke, using the World Health Organization definition, from May 2019 until October 2021. To reduce selection bias onto the register, all investigations were paid by the funder and outreach conducted to raise awareness of the study. Sociodemographic data, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and Barthel Index (BI) were collected on all patients on admission, at 7 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years post stroke. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to identify factors associated with all-cause mortality. A binomial logistic regression model reports odds ratio (OR) for functional independence at 1 year. RESULTS: A total of 986 patients with stroke were included, of which 857 (87%) received neuroimaging. Follow-up rate was 82% at 1 year, missing item data were <1% for most variables. Stroke cases were equally split by sex and mean age was 58.9 (SD: 14.0) years. About 625 (63%) were ischemic, 206 (21%) primary intracerebral hemorrhage, 25 (3%) subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 130 (13%) were of undetermined stroke type. Median NIHSS was 16 (9-24). CFR at 30 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years was 37%, 44%, 49%, and 53%, respectively. Factors associated with increased fatality at any timepoint were male sex (hazard ratio (HR): 1.28 (1.05-1.56)), previous stroke (HR: 1.34 (1.04-1.71)), atrial fibrillation (HR: 1.58(1.06-2.34)), subarachnoid hemorrhage (HR: 2.31 (1.40-3.81)), undetermined stroke type (HR: 3.18 (2.44-4.14)), and in-hospital complications (HR: 1.65 (1.36-1.98)). About 93% of patients were completely independent prior to their stroke, declining to 19% at 1 year after stroke. Functional improvement was most likely to occur between 7 and 90 days post stroke with 35% patients improving, and 13% improving between 90 days to 1 year. Increasing age (OR: 0.97 (0.95-0.99)), previous stroke (OR: 0.50 (0.26-0.98)), NIHSS (OR: 0.89 (0.86-0.91)), undetermined stroke type (OR: 0.18 (0.05-0.62)), and ⩾1 in-hospital complication (OR: 0.52 (0.34-0.80)) were associated with lower OR of functional independence at 1 year. Hypertension (OR: 1.98 (1.14-3.44)) and being the primary breadwinner of the household (OR: 1.59 (1.01-2.49)) were associated with functional independence at 1 year. CONCLUSION: Stroke affected younger people and resulted in high rates of fatality and functional impairment relative to global averages. Key clinical priorities for reducing fatality include preventing stroke-related complications through evidence-based stroke care, improved detection and management of atrial fibrillation, and increasing coverage of secondary prevention. Further research into care pathways and interventions to encourage care seeking for less severe strokes should be prioritized, including reducing the cost barrier for stroke investigations and care.

Identifying multimorbidity clusters with the highest primary care use: 15 years of evidence from a multi-ethnic metropolitan population.

BACKGROUND: People with multimorbidity have complex healthcare needs. Some co-occurring diseases interact with each other to a larger extent than others and may have a different impact on primary care use. AIM: To assess the association between multimorbidity clusters and primary care consultations over time. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective longitudinal (panel) study design was used. Data comprised electronic primary care health records of 826 166 patients registered at GP practices in an ethnically diverse, urban setting in London between 2005 and 2020. METHOD: Primary care consultation rates were modelled using generalised estimating equations. Key controls included the total number of long-term conditions, five multimorbidity clusters, and their interaction effects, ethnic group, and polypharmacy (proxy for disease severity). Models were also calibrated by consultation type and ethnic group. RESULTS: Individuals with multimorbidity used two to three times more primary care services than those without multimorbidity (incidence rate ratio 2.30, 95% confidence interval = 2.29 to 2.32). Patients in the alcohol dependence, substance dependence, and HIV cluster (Dependence+) had the highest rate of increase in primary care consultations as additional long-term conditions accumulated, followed by the mental health cluster (anxiety and depression). Differences by ethnic group were observed, with the largest impact in the chronic liver disease and viral hepatitis cluster for individuals of Black or Asian ethnicity. CONCLUSION: This study identified multimorbidity clusters with the highest primary care demand over time as additional long-term conditions developed, differentiating by consultation type and ethnicity. Targeting clinical practice to prevent multimorbidity progression for these groups may lessen future pressures on primary care demand by improving health outcomes.

Inequalities in developing multimorbidity over time: A population-based cohort study from an urban, multi-ethnic borough in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Social and material deprivation accelerate the development of multimorbidity, yet the mechanisms which drive multimorbidity pathways and trajectories remain unclear. We aimed to examine the association between health inequality, risk factors and accumulation or resolution of LTCs, taking disease sequences into consideration. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort of adults aged 18 years and over, registered between April 2005 and May 2020 in general practices in one inner London borough (n = 826,936). Thirty-two long term conditions (LTCs) were selected using a consensus process, based on a definition adapted to the demographic characteristics of the local population. sThe development and resolution of these LTCs were examined according to sociodemographic and clinical risk factors (hypertension; moderate obesity (BMI 30·0-39·9 kg/m2), high cholesterol (total cholesterol > 5 mmol/L), smoking, high alcohol consumption (>14 units per week), and psychoactive substance use), through the application of multistate Markov chain models. FINDINGS: Participants were followed up for a median of 4.2 years (IQR = 1·8 - 8·4); 631,760 (76%) entered the study with no LTCs, 121,424 (15%) with 1 LTC, 41,720 (5%) with 2 LTCs, and 31,966 (4%) with three or more LTCs. At the end of follow-up, 194,777 (24%) gained one or more LTCs, while 45,017 (5%) had resolved LTCs and 27,021 (3%) died. In multistate models, deprivation (hazard ratio [HR] between 1·30 to 1·64), female sex (HR 1·13 to 1·20), and Black ethnicity (HR 1·20 to 1·30; vs White) were independently associated with increased risk of transition from one to two LTCs, and shorter time spent in a healthy state. Substance use was the strongest risk factor for multimorbidity with an 85% probability of gaining LTCs over the next year. First order Markov chains identified consistent disease sequences including: chronic pain or osteoarthritis followed by anxiety and depression; alcohol and substance dependency followed by HIV, viral hepatitis, and liver disease; and morbid obesity followed by diabetes, hypertension, and chronic pain. INTERPRETATION: We examined the relations among 32 LTCs, taking the order of disease occurrence into consideration. Distinctive patterns for the development and accumulation of multimorbidity have emerged, with increased risk of transitioning from no conditions to multimorbidity and mortality related to ethnicity, deprivation and gender. Musculoskeletal disorders, morbid obesity and substance abuse represent common entry points to multimorbidity trajectories.

Children and Young People's Health Partnership Evelina London Model of Care: economic evaluation protocol of a complex system change.

INTRODUCTION: The Children and Young People's Health Partnership (CYPHP) Evelina London Model of Care is a new approach to integrated care delivery for children and young people (CYP) with common health complaints and chronic conditions. CYPHP includes population health management (services shaped by data-driven understanding of population and individual needs, applied in this case to enable proactive case finding and tailored biopsychosocial care), specialist clinics with multidisciplinary health teams and training resources for professionals working with CYP. This complex health system strengthening programme has been implemented in South London since April 2018 and will be evaluated using a cluster randomised controlled trial with an embedded process evaluation. This protocol describes the within-trial and beyond-trial economic evaluation of CYPHP. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The economic evaluation will identify, measure and value resources and health outcome impacts of CYPHP compared with enhanced usual care from a National Health Service/Personal Social Service and a broader societal perspective. The study population includes 90 000 CYP under 16 years of age in 23 clusters (groups of general practitioner (GP) practices) to assess health service use and costs, with more detailed cost-effectiveness analysis of a targeted sample of 2138 CYP with asthma, eczema or constipation (tracer conditions). For the cost-effectiveness analysis, health outcomes will be measured using the Paediatric Quality of Life Inventory and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) using the Child Health Utility 9 Dimensions (CHU-9D) measure. To account for changes in parental well-being, the Warwick-Edinburg Mental Well-being Scale will be integrated with QALYs in a cost-benefit analysis. The within-trial economic evaluation will be complemented by a novel long-term model that expands the analytical horizon to 10 years. Analyses will adhere to good practice guidelines and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence public health reference case. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has received ethical approval from South West-Cornwall and Plymouth Research Ethics Committee (REC Reference: 17/SW/0275). Results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals, made available in briefing papers for local decision-makers, and provided to the local community through website and public events. Findings will be generalisable to community-based models of care, especially in urban settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03461848.

Identifying longitudinal clusters of multimorbidity in an urban setting: A population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Globally, there is increasing research on clusters of multimorbidity, but few studies have investigated multimorbidity in urban contexts characterised by a young, multi-ethnic, deprived populations. This study identified clusters of associative multimorbidity in an urban setting. METHODS: This is a population-based retrospective cross-sectional study using electronic health records of all adults aged 18 years and over, registered between April 2005 to May 2020 in general practices in one inner London borough. Multiple correspondence analysis and cluster analysis was used to identify groups of multimorbidity from 32 long-term conditions (LTCs). RESULTS: The population included 41 general practices with 826,936 patients registered between 2005 and 2020, with mean age 40 (SD15·6) years. The prevalence of multimorbidity was 21% (n = 174,881), with the median number of conditions being three and increasing with age. Analysis identified five consistent LTC clusters: 1) anxiety and depression (Ratio of within- to between- sum of squares (WSS/BSS <0·01 to <0·01); 2) heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease (CKD), chronic heart disease (CHD), stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA), peripheral arterial disease (PAD), dementia and osteoporosis (WSS/BSS 0·09 to 0·12); 3) osteoarthritis, cancer, chronic pain, hypertension and diabetes (0·05 to 0·06); 4) chronic liver disease and viral hepatitis (WSS/BSS 0·02 to 0·03); 5) substance dependency, alcohol dependency and HIV (WSS/BSS 0·37 to 0·55). INTERPRETATION: Mental health problems, pain, and at-risk behaviours leading to cardiovascular diseases are the important clusters identified in this young, urban population. FUNDING: Impact on Urban Health, United Kingdom.

Impact of multimorbidity on healthcare costs and utilisation: a systematic review of the UK literature.

BACKGROUND: Managing multimorbidity is complex for both patients and healthcare systems. Patients with multimorbidity often use a variety of primary and secondary care services. Country-specific research exploring the healthcare utilisation and cost consequences of multimorbidity may inform future interventions and payment schemes in the UK. AIM: To assess the relationship between multimorbidity, healthcare costs, and healthcare utilisation; and to determine how this relationship varies by disease combinations and healthcare components. DESIGN AND SETTING: A systematic review. METHOD: This systematic review followed the bidirectional citation searching to completion method. MEDLINE and grey literature were searched for UK studies since 2004. An iterative review of references and citations was completed. Authors from all articles selected were contacted and asked to check for completeness of UK evidence. The National Institutes of Health National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute quality assessment tool was used to assess risk of bias. Data were extracted, findings synthesised, and study heterogeneity assessed; meta-analysis was conducted when possible. RESULTS: Seventeen studies were identified: seven predicting healthcare costs and 10 healthcare utilisation. Multimorbidity was found to be associated with increased total costs, hospital costs, care transition costs, primary care use, dental care use, emergency department use, and hospitalisations. Several studies demonstrated the high cost of depression and of hospitalisation associated with multimorbidity. CONCLUSION: In the UK, multimorbidity increases healthcare utilisation and costs of primary, secondary, and dental care. Future research is needed to examine whether integrated care schemes offer efficiencies in healthcare provision for multimorbidity.

Relational Climate and Health Care Costs: Evidence From Diabetes Care.

Quality of care worries and rising costs have resulted in a widespread interest in enhancing the efficiency of health care delivery. One area of increasing interest is in promoting teamwork as a way of coordinating efforts to reduce costs and improve quality, and identifying the characteristics of the work environment that support teamwork. Relational climate is a measure of the work environment that captures shared employee perceptions of teamwork, conflict resolution, and diversity acceptance. Previous research has found a positive association between relational climate and quality of care, yet its relationship with costs remains unexplored. We examined the influence of primary care relational climate on health care costs incurred by diabetic patients at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs between 2008 and 2012. We found that better relational climate is significantly related to lower costs. Clinics with the strongest relational climate saved $334 in outpatient costs per patient compared with facilities with the weakest score in 2010. The total outpatient cost saving if all clinics achieved the top 5% relational climate score was $20 million. Relational climate may contribute to lower costs by enhancing diabetic treatment work processes, especially in outpatient settings.