Bayesian model comparison for rare-variant association studies.

Whole-genome sequencing studies applied to large populations or biobanks with extensive phenotyping raise new analytic challenges. The need to consider many variants at a locus or group of genes simultaneously and the potential to study many correlated phenotypes with shared genetic architecture provide opportunities for discovery not addressed by the traditional one variant, one phenotype association study. Here, we introduce a Bayesian model comparison approach called MRP (multiple rare variants and phenotypes) for rare-variant association studies that considers correlation, scale, and direction of genetic effects across a group of genetic variants, phenotypes, and studies, requiring only summary statistic data. We apply our method to exome sequencing data (n = 184,698) across 2,019 traits from the UK Biobank, aggregating signals in genes. MRP demonstrates an ability to recover signals such as associations between PCSK9 and LDL cholesterol levels. We additionally find MRP effective in conducting meta-analyses in exome data. Non-biomarker findings include associations between MC1R and red hair color and skin color, IL17RA and monocyte count, and IQGAP2 and mean platelet volume. Finally, we apply MRP in a multi-phenotype setting; after clustering the 35 biomarker phenotypes based on genetic correlation estimates, we find that joint analysis of these phenotypes results in substantial power gains for gene-trait associations, such as in TNFRSF13B in one of the clusters containing diabetes- and lipid-related traits. Overall, we show that the MRP model comparison approach improves upon useful features from widely used meta-analysis approaches for rare-variant association analyses and prioritizes protective modifiers of disease risk.

A novel locus of resistance to severe malaria in a region of ancient balancing selection.

The high prevalence of sickle haemoglobin in Africa shows that malaria has been a major force for human evolutionary selection, but surprisingly few other polymorphisms have been proven to confer resistance to malaria in large epidemiological studies. To address this problem, we conducted a multi-centre genome-wide association study (GWAS) of life-threatening Plasmodium falciparum infection (severe malaria) in over 11,000 African children, with replication data in a further 14,000 individuals. Here we report a novel malaria resistance locus close to a cluster of genes encoding glycophorins that are receptors for erythrocyte invasion by P. falciparum. We identify a haplotype at this locus that provides 33% protection against severe malaria (odds ratio = 0.67, 95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.76, P value = 9.5 × 10(-11)) and is linked to polymorphisms that have previously been shown to have features of ancient balancing selection, on the basis of haplotype sharing between humans and chimpanzees. Taken together with previous observations on the malaria-protective role of blood group O, these data reveal that two of the strongest GWAS signals for severe malaria lie in or close to genes encoding the glycosylated surface coat of the erythrocyte cell membrane, both within regions of the genome where it appears that evolution has maintained diversity for millions of years. These findings provide new insights into the host-parasite interactions that are critical in determining the outcome of malaria infection.

Bayesian meta-analysis across genome-wide association studies of diverse phenotypes.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are a powerful tool for understanding the genetic basis of diseases and traits, but most studies have been conducted in isolation, with a focus on either a single or a set of closely related phenotypes. We describe MetABF, a simple Bayesian framework for performing integrative meta-analysis across multiple GWAS using summary statistics. The approach is applicable across a wide range of study designs and can increase the power by 50% compared with standard frequentist tests when only a subset of studies have a true effect. We demonstrate its utility in a meta-analysis of 20 diverse GWAS which were part of the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 2. The novelty of the approach is its ability to explore, and assess the evidence for a range of possible true patterns of association across studies in a computationally efficient framework.

Impact of Interferon Lambda 4 Genotype on Interferon-Stimulated Gene Expression During Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Hepatitis C.

New directly acting antivirals (DAAs) provide very high cure rates in most patients infected by hepatitis C virus (HCV). However, some patient groups have been relatively harder to treat, including those with cirrhosis or infected with HCV genotype 3. In the recent BOSON trial, genotype 3, patients with cirrhosis receiving a 16-week course of sofosbuvir and ribavirin had a sustained virological response (SVR) rate of around 50%. In patients with cirrhosis, interferon lambda 4 (IFNL4) CC genotype was significantly associated with SVR. This genotype was also associated with a lower interferon-stimulated gene (ISG) signature in peripheral blood and in liver at baseline. Unexpectedly, patients with the CC genotype showed a dynamic increase in ISG expression between weeks 4 and 16 of DAA therapy, whereas the reverse was true for non-CC patients. Conclusion: These data provide an important dynamic link between host genotype and phenotype in HCV therapy also potentially relevant to naturally acquired infection. (Hepatology 2018; 00:000-000).

FINEMAP: efficient variable selection using summary data from genome-wide association studies.

MOTIVATION: The goal of fine-mapping in genomic regions associated with complex diseases and traits is to identify causal variants that point to molecular mechanisms behind the associations. Recent fine-mapping methods using summary data from genome-wide association studies rely on exhaustive search through all possible causal configurations, which is computationally expensive. RESULTS: We introduce FINEMAP, a software package to efficiently explore a set of the most important causal configurations of the region via a shotgun stochastic search algorithm. We show that FINEMAP produces accurate results in a fraction of processing time of existing approaches and is therefore a promising tool for analyzing growing amounts of data produced in genome-wide association studies and emerging sequencing projects. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: FINEMAP v1.0 is freely available for Mac OS X and Linux at http://www.christianbenner.com CONTACT: : christian.benner@helsinki.fi or matti.pirinen@helsinki.fi.

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis.

Identification of loci associated with schizophrenia by genome-wide association and follow-up.

We carried out a genome-wide association study of schizophrenia (479 cases, 2,937 controls) and tested loci with P < 10(-5) in up to 16,726 additional subjects. Of 12 loci followed up, 3 had strong independent support (P < 5 x 10(-4)), and the overall pattern of replication was unlikely to occur by chance (P = 9 x 10(-8)). Meta-analysis provided strongest evidence for association around ZNF804A (P = 1.61 x 10(-7)) and this strengthened when the affected phenotype included bipolar disorder (P = 9.96 x 10(-9)).

Imputation-based meta-analysis of severe malaria in three African populations.

Combining data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted at different locations, using genotype imputation and fixed-effects meta-analysis, has been a powerful approach for dissecting complex disease genetics in populations of European ancestry. Here we investigate the feasibility of applying the same approach in Africa, where genetic diversity, both within and between populations, is far more extensive. We analyse genome-wide data from approximately 5,000 individuals with severe malaria and 7,000 population controls from three different locations in Africa. Our results show that the standard approach is well powered to detect known malaria susceptibility loci when sample sizes are large, and that modern methods for association analysis can control the potential confounding effects of population structure. We show that pattern of association around the haemoglobin S allele differs substantially across populations due to differences in haplotype structure. Motivated by these observations we consider new approaches to association analysis that might prove valuable for multicentre GWAS in Africa: we relax the assumptions of SNP-based fixed effect analysis; we apply Bayesian approaches to allow for heterogeneity in the effect of an allele on risk across studies; and we introduce a region-based test to allow for heterogeneity in the location of causal alleles.

Progress and promise in understanding the genetic basis of common diseases.

Susceptibility to common human diseases is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. The explosive growth of genetic data, and the knowledge that it is generating, are transforming our biological understanding of these diseases. In this review, we describe the technological and analytical advances that have enabled genome-wide association studies to be successful in identifying a large number of genetic variants robustly associated with common disease. We examine the biological insights that these genetic associations are beginning to produce, from functional mechanisms involving individual genes to biological pathways linking associated genes, and the identification of functional annotations, some of which are cell-type-specific, enriched in disease associations. Although most efforts have focused on identifying and interpreting genetic variants that are irrefutably associated with disease, it is increasingly clear that--even at large sample sizes--these represent only the tip of the iceberg of genetic signal, motivating polygenic analyses that consider the effects of genetic variants throughout the genome, including modest effects that are not individually statistically significant. As data from an increasingly large number of diseases and traits are analysed, pleiotropic effects (defined as genetic loci affecting multiple phenotypes) can help integrate our biological understanding. Looking forward, the next generation of population-scale data resources, linking genomic information with health outcomes, will lead to another step-change in our ability to understand, and treat, common diseases.

Genome-wide comparison of African-ancestry populations from CARe and other cohorts reveals signals of natural selection.

The study of recent natural selection in human populations has important applications to human history and medicine. Positive natural selection drives the increase in beneficial alleles and plays a role in explaining diversity across human populations. By discovering traits subject to positive selection, we can better understand the population level response to environmental pressures including infectious disease. Our study examines unusual population differentiation between three large data sets to detect natural selection. The populations examined, African Americans, Nigerians, and Gambians, are genetically close to one another (F(ST) < 0.01 for all pairs), allowing us to detect selection even with moderate changes in allele frequency. We also develop a tree-based method to pinpoint the population in which selection occurred, incorporating information across populations. Our genome-wide significant results corroborate loci previously reported to be under selection in Africans including HBB and CD36. At the HLA locus on chromosome 6, results suggest the existence of multiple, independent targets of population-specific selective pressure. In addition, we report a genome-wide significant (p = 1.36 × 10(-11)) signal of selection in the prostate stem cell antigen (PSCA) gene. The most significantly differentiated marker in our analysis, rs2920283, is highly differentiated in both Africa and East Asia and has prior genome-wide significant associations to bladder and gastric cancers.

Quantifying the underestimation of relative risks from genome-wide association studies.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified hundreds of associated loci across many common diseases. Most risk variants identified by GWAS will merely be tags for as-yet-unknown causal variants. It is therefore possible that identification of the causal variant, by fine mapping, will identify alleles with larger effects on genetic risk than those currently estimated from GWAS replication studies. We show that under plausible assumptions, whilst the majority of the per-allele relative risks (RR) estimated from GWAS data will be close to the true risk at the causal variant, some could be considerable underestimates. For example, for an estimated RR in the range 1.2-1.3, there is approximately a 38% chance that it exceeds 1.4 and a 10% chance that it is over 2. We show how these probabilities can vary depending on the true effects associated with low-frequency variants and on the minor allele frequency (MAF) of the most associated SNP. We investigate the consequences of the underestimation of effect sizes for predictions of an individual's disease risk and interpret our results for the design of fine mapping experiments. Although these effects mean that the amount of heritability explained by known GWAS loci is expected to be larger than current projections, this increase is likely to explain a relatively small amount of the so-called "missing" heritability.

Recombination and population structure in Salmonella enterica.

Salmonella enterica is a bacterial pathogen that causes enteric fever and gastroenteritis in humans and animals. Although its population structure was long described as clonal, based on high linkage disequilibrium between loci typed by enzyme electrophoresis, recent examination of gene sequences has revealed that recombination plays an important evolutionary role. We sequenced around 10% of the core genome of 114 isolates of enterica using a resequencing microarray. Application of two different analysis methods (Structure and ClonalFrame) to our genomic data allowed us to define five clear lineages within S. enterica subspecies enterica, one of which is five times older than the other four and two thirds of the age of the whole subspecies. We show that some of these lineages display more evidence of recombination than others. We also demonstrate that some level of sexual isolation exists between the lineages, so that recombination has occurred predominantly between members of the same lineage. This pattern of recombination is compatible with expectations from the previously described ecological structuring of the enterica population as well as mechanistic barriers to recombination observed in laboratory experiments. In spite of their relatively low level of genetic differentiation, these lineages might therefore represent incipient species.

Dissection of the genetics of Parkinson's disease identifies an additional association 5' of SNCA and multiple associated haplotypes at 17q21.

We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 1705 Parkinson's disease (PD) UK patients and 5175 UK controls, the largest sample size so far for a PD GWAS. Replication was attempted in an additional cohort of 1039 French PD cases and 1984 controls for the 27 regions showing the strongest evidence of association (P< 10(-4)). We replicated published associations in the 4q22/SNCA and 17q21/MAPT chromosome regions (P< 10(-10)) and found evidence for an additional independent association in 4q22/SNCA. A detailed analysis of the haplotype structure at 17q21 showed that there are three separate risk groups within this region. We found weak but consistent evidence of association for common variants located in three previously published associated regions (4p15/BST1, 4p16/GAK and 1q32/PARK16). We found no support for the previously reported SNP association in 12q12/LRRK2. We also found an association of the two SNPs in 4q22/SNCA with the age of onset of the disease.

A robust clustering algorithm for identifying problematic samples in genome-wide association studies.

SUMMARY: High-throughput genotyping arrays provide an efficient way to survey single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the genome in large numbers of individuals. Downstream analysis of the data, for example in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), often involves statistical models of genotype frequencies across individuals. The complexities of the sample collection process and the potential for errors in the experimental assay can lead to biases and artefacts in an individual's inferred genotypes. Rather than attempting to model these complications, it has become a standard practice to remove individuals whose genome-wide data differ from the sample at large. Here we describe a simple, but robust, statistical algorithm to identify samples with atypical summaries of genome-wide variation. Its use as a semi-automated quality control tool is demonstrated using several summary statistics, selected to identify different potential problems, and it is applied to two different genotyping platforms and sample collections. AVAILABILITY: The algorithm is written in R and is freely available at www.well.ox.ac.uk/chris-spencer CONTACT: chris.spencer@well.ox.ac.uk SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Disease model distortion in association studies.

Most findings from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are consistent with a simple disease model at a single nucleotide polymorphism, in which each additional copy of the risk allele increases risk by the same multiplicative factor, in contrast to dominance or interaction effects. As others have noted, departures from this multiplicative model are difficult to detect. Here, we seek to quantify this both analytically and empirically. We show that imperfect linkage disequilibrium (LD) between causal and marker loci distorts disease models, with the power to detect such departures dropping off very quickly: decaying as a function of r4, where r2 is the usual correlation between the causal and marker loci, in contrast to the well-known result that power to detect a multiplicative effect decays as a function of r2. We perform a simulation study with empirical patterns of LD to assess how this disease model distortion is likely to impact GWAS results. Among loci where association is detected, we observe that there is reasonable power to detect substantial deviations from the multiplicative model, such as for dominant and recessive models. Thus, it is worth explicitly testing for such deviations routinely.

Designing genome-wide association studies: sample size, power, imputation, and the choice of genotyping chip.

Genome-wide association studies are revolutionizing the search for the genes underlying human complex diseases. The main decisions to be made at the design stage of these studies are the choice of the commercial genotyping chip to be used and the numbers of case and control samples to be genotyped. The most common method of comparing different chips is using a measure of coverage, but this fails to properly account for the effects of sample size, the genetic model of the disease, and linkage disequilibrium between SNPs. In this paper, we argue that the statistical power to detect a causative variant should be the major criterion in study design. Because of the complicated pattern of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the human genome, power cannot be calculated analytically and must instead be assessed by simulation. We describe in detail a method of simulating case-control samples at a set of linked SNPs that replicates the patterns of LD in human populations, and we used it to assess power for a comprehensive set of available genotyping chips. Our results allow us to compare the performance of the chips to detect variants with different effect sizes and allele frequencies, look at how power changes with sample size in different populations or when using multi-marker tags and genotype imputation approaches, and how performance compares to a hypothetical chip that contains every SNP in HapMap. A main conclusion of this study is that marked differences in genome coverage may not translate into appreciable differences in power and that, when taking budgetary considerations into account, the most powerful design may not always correspond to the chip with the highest coverage. We also show that genotype imputation can be used to boost the power of many chips up to the level obtained from a hypothetical "complete" chip containing all the SNPs in HapMap. Our results have been encapsulated into an R software package that allows users to design future association studies and our methods provide a framework with which new chip sets can be evaluated.

The NICA injury surveillance system: Design, methodology and preliminary data of a prospective, longitudinal study of injuries in youth cross country mountain bike racing.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the design and implementation of an injury surveillance system for youth mountain bike racing in the United States, and to report preliminary first-year results. DESIGN: Descriptive sports injury epidemiology study. METHODS: After two and a half years of development and extensive beta-testing, an electronic injury surveillance system went live in January, 2018. An automated email is sent to a Designated Reporter on each team, with links to the injury reporting form. Data collected include demographic information, injured body part, injury diagnosis, trail conditions and other factors associated with injury occurrence. RESULTS: 837 unique injuries were reported in 554 injury events among 18,576 student-athletes. The overall injury event proportion was 3.0%. The most common injury among student-athletes was concussion/possible concussion (22.2%), followed by injuries to the wrist and hand (19.0%). Among 8,738 coaches, there were 134 unique injuries reported that occurred in 68 injury events, resulting in an overall injury event proportion of 0.8%. The shoulder (38.2%) was the most commonly injured body part among coaches. Injuries among coaches tended to more frequently result in fractures, dislocations and hospital admission compared with injuries among student-athletes. Among student-athletes, female riders sustained lower limb injuries more than male riders (34.0% vs. 20.7%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A nationwide injury surveillance system for youth mountain bike racing was successfully implemented in the United States. Overall injury event proportions were relatively low, but many injury events resulted in concussions/possible concussions, fractures, dislocations and 4 weeks or longer of time loss from riding.

Integrated Polygenic Tool Substantially Enhances Coronary Artery Disease Prediction.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable interest in whether genetic data can be used to improve standard cardiovascular disease risk calculators, as the latter are routinely used in clinical practice to manage preventative treatment. METHODS: Using the UK Biobank resource, we developed our own polygenic risk score for coronary artery disease (CAD). We used an additional 60 000 UK Biobank individuals to develop an integrated risk tool (IRT) that combined our polygenic risk score with established risk tools (either the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology pooled cohort equations [PCE] or UK QRISK3), and we tested our IRT in an additional, independent set of 186 451 UK Biobank individuals. RESULTS: The novel CAD polygenic risk score shows superior predictive power for CAD events, compared with other published polygenic risk scores, and is largely uncorrelated with PCE and QRISK3. When combined with PCE into an IRT, it has superior predictive accuracy. Overall, 10.4% of incident CAD cases were misclassified as low risk by PCE and correctly classified as high risk by the IRT, compared with 4.4% misclassified by the IRT and correctly classified by PCE. The overall net reclassification improvement for the IRT was 5.9% (95% CI, 4.7-7.0). When individuals were stratified into age-by-sex subgroups, the improvement was larger for all subgroups (range, 8.3%-15.4%), with the best performance in 40- to 54-year-old men (15.4% [95% CI, 11.6-19.3]). Comparable results were found using a different risk tool (QRISK3) and also a broader definition of cardiovascular disease. Use of the IRT is estimated to avoid up to 12 000 deaths in the United States over a 5-year period. CONCLUSIONS: An IRT that includes polygenic risk outperforms current risk stratification tools and offers greater opportunity for early interventions. Given the plummeting costs of genetic tests, future iterations of CAD risk tools would be enhanced with the addition of a person's polygenic risk.

Scanning the human genome for signals of selection.

The search for adaptive evolution in the human genome has reached a new era with the advent of genome-wide surveys of genetic variation. However, making sense, let alone use, of such experiments is far from straightforward. Key problems include the way in which the data have been collected, the need to control for factors such as population history and variable recombination rates, which influence the discovery rates for both true and false positives, and the inherent difficulty of falsification. Nevertheless, recent work has shown that genome scans can be used to identify both functional polymorphisms underlying selected traits and entire classes of genes enriched for signals of adaptation.