Border malaria: defining the problem to address the challenge of malaria elimination.

Border malaria is frequently cited as an obstacle to malaria elimination and sometimes used as a justification for the failure of elimination. Numerous border or cross-border meetings and elimination initiatives have been convened to address this bottleneck to elimination. In this Perspective, border malaria is defined as malaria transmission, or the potential for transmission, across or along shared land borders between countries where at least one of them has ongoing malaria transmission. Border malaria is distinct from malaria importation, which can occur anywhere and in any country. The authors' analysis shows that the remaining transmission foci of malaria-eliminating countries tend to occur in the vicinity of international land borders that they share with neighbouring endemic countries. The reasons why international land borders often represent the last mile in malaria elimination are complex. The authors argue that the often higher intrinsic transmission potential, the neglect of investment and development, the constant risk of malaria importation due to cross-border movement, the challenges of implementing interventions in complex environments and uncoordinated action in a cross-border shared transmission focus all contribute to the difficulties of malaria elimination in border areas. Border malaria reflects the limitations of the current tools and interventions for malaria elimination and implies the need for social cohesion, basic health services, community economic conditions, and policy dialogue and coordination to achieve the expected impact of malaria interventions. Given the uniqueness of each border and the complex and multifaceted nature of border malaria, a situation analysis to define and characterize the determinants of transmission is essential to inform a problem-solving mindset and develop appropriate strategies to eliminate malaria in these areas.

Mass testing and treatment for malaria followed by weekly fever screening, testing and treatment in Northern Senegal: feasibility, cost and impact.

BACKGROUND: Population-wide interventions using malaria testing and treatment might decrease the reservoir of Plasmodium falciparum infection and accelerate towards elimination. Questions remain about their effectiveness and evidence from different transmission settings is needed. METHODS: A pilot quasi-experimental study to evaluate a package of population-wide test and treat interventions was conducted in six health facility catchment areas (HFCA) in the districts of Kanel, Linguère, and Ranérou (Senegal). Seven adjacent HFCAs were selected as comparison. Villages within the intervention HFCAs were stratified according to the 2013 incidences of passively detected malaria cases, and those with an incidence ≥ 15 cases/1000/year were targeted for a mass test and treat (MTAT) in September 2014. All households were visited, all consenting individuals were tested with a rapid diagnostic test (RDT), and, if positive, treated with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine. This was followed by weekly screening, testing and treatment of fever cases (PECADOM++) until the end of the transmission season in January 2015. Villages with lower incidence received only PECADOM++ or case investigation. To evaluate the impact of the interventions over that transmission season, the incidence of passively detected, RDT-confirmed malaria cases was compared between the intervention and comparison groups with a difference-in-difference analysis using negative binomial regression with random effects on HFCA. RESULTS: During MTAT, 89% (2225/2503) of households were visited and 86% (18,992/22,170) of individuals were tested, for a combined 77% effective coverage. Among those tested, 291 (1.5%) were RDT positive (range 0-10.8 by village), of whom 82% were < 20 years old and 70% were afebrile. During the PECADOM++ 40,002 visits were conducted to find 2784 individuals reporting fever, with an RDT positivity of 6.5% (170/2612). The combination of interventions resulted in an estimated 38% larger decrease in malaria case incidence in the intervention compared to the comparison group (adjusted incidence risk ratio = 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.84, p = 0.002). The cost of the MTAT was $14.3 per person. CONCLUSIONS: It was operationally feasible to conduct MTAT and PECADOM++ with high coverage, although PECADOM++ was not an efficient strategy to complement MTAT. The modest impact of the intervention package suggests a need for alternative or complementary strategies.

Genetic evidence for imported malaria and local transmission in Richard Toll, Senegal.

BACKGROUND: Malaria elimination efforts can be undermined by imported malaria infections. Imported infections are classified based on travel history. METHODS: A genetic strategy was applied to better understand the contribution of imported infections and to test for local transmission in the very low prevalence region of Richard Toll, Senegal. RESULTS: Genetic relatedness analysis, based upon molecular barcode genotyping data derived from diagnostic material, provided evidence for both imported infections and ongoing local transmission in Richard Toll. Evidence for imported malaria included finding that a large proportion of Richard Toll parasites were genetically related to parasites from Thiès, Senegal, a region of moderate transmission with extensive available genotyping data. Evidence for ongoing local transmission included finding parasites of identical genotype that persisted across multiple transmission seasons as well as enrichment of highly related infections within the households of non-travellers compared to travellers. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that, while a large number of infections may have been imported, there remains ongoing local malaria transmission in Richard Toll. These proof-of-concept findings underscore the value of genetic data to identify parasite relatedness and patterns of transmission to inform optimal intervention selection and placement.

Correction to: Mass testing and treatment for malaria followed by weekly fever screening, testing and treatment in Northern Senegal: feasibility, cost and impact.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

An observational analysis of the impact of indoor residual spraying with non-pyrethroid insecticides on the incidence of malaria in Ségou Region, Mali: 2012-2015.

BACKGROUND: Ségou Region in Central Mali is an area of high malaria burden with seasonal transmission, high access to and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), and resistance to pyrethroids and DDT well documented in Anopheles gambiae s.l. (the principal vector of malaria in Mali). Ségou has recently received indoor residual spraying (IRS) supported by Mali's collaboration with the US President's Malaria Initiative/Africa Indoor Residual Spraying programme. From 2012 to 2015, two different non-pyrethroid insecticides: bendiocarb in 2012 and 2013 and pirimiphos-methyl in 2014 and 2015, were used for IRS in two districts. This report summarizes the results of observational analyses carried out to assess the impact of these IRS campaigns on malaria incidence rates reported through local and district health systems before and after spraying. METHODS: A series of retrospective time series analyses were performed on 1,382,202 rapid diagnostic test-confirmed cases of malaria reported by district routine health systems in Ségou Region from January 2012 to January 2016. Malaria testing, treatment, surveillance and reporting activities remained consistent across districts and years during the study period, as did LLIN access and use estimates as well as An. gambiae s.l. insecticide resistance patterns. Districts were stratified by IRS implementation status and all-age monthly incidence rates were calculated and compared across strata from 2012 to 2014. In 2015 a regional but variable scale-up of seasonal malaria chemoprevention complicated the region-wide analysis; however IRS operations were suspended in Bla District that year so a difference in differences approach was used to compare 2014 to 2015 changes in malaria incidence at the health facility level in children under 5-years-old from Bla relative to changes observed in Barouéli, where IRS operations were consistent. RESULTS: During 2012-2014, rapid reductions in malaria incidence were observed during the 6 months following each IRS campaign, though most of the reduction in cases (70% of the total) was concentrated in the first 2 months after each campaign was completed. Compared to non-IRS districts, in which normal seasonal patterns of malaria incidence were observed, an estimated 286,745 total fewer cases of all-age malaria were observed in IRS districts. The total cost of IRS in Ségou was around 9.68 million USD, or roughly 33.75 USD per case averted. Further analysis suggests that the timing of the 2012-2014 IRS campaigns (spraying in July and August) was well positioned to maximize public health impact. Suspension of IRS in Bla District after the 2014 campaign resulted in a 70% increase in under-5-years-old malaria incidence rates from 2014 to 2015, significantly greater (p = 0.0003) than the change reported from Barouéli District, where incidence rates remained the same. CONCLUSIONS: From 2012 to 2015, the annual IRS campaigns in Ségou are associated with several hundred thousand fewer cases of malaria. This work supports the growing evidence that shows that IRS with non-pyrethroid insecticides is a wise public health investment in areas with documented pyrethroid resistance, high rates of LLIN coverage, and where house structures and population densities are appropriate. Additionally, this work highlights the utility of quality-assured and validated routine surveillance and well defined observational analyses to rapidly assess the impact of malaria control interventions in operational settings, helping to empower evidence-based decision making and to further grow the evidence base needed to better understand when and where to utilize new vector control tools as they become available.

malERA: An updated research agenda for malaria elimination and eradication.

Achieving a malaria-free world presents exciting scientific challenges as well as overwhelming health, equity, and economic benefits. WHO and countries are setting ambitious goals for reducing the burden and eliminating malaria through the "Global Technical Strategy" and 21 countries are aiming to eliminate malaria by 2020. The commitment to achieve these targets should be celebrated. However, the need for innovation to achieve these goals, sustain elimination, and free the world of malaria is greater than ever. Over 180 experts across multiple disciplines are engaged in the Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA) Refresh process to address problems that need to be solved. The result is a research and development agenda to accelerate malaria elimination and, in the longer term, transform the malaria community's ability to eradicate it globally.

Watching the availability and use of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT).

At the turn of this new century and after much debate, the malaria community reckoned with failing first line therapies and moved to a global recommendation for deployment of an artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) to treat infections due to Plasmodium falciparum. No one said it was going to be easy. This series in the Malaria Journal reports longitudinal snapshots of how the core pillar of malaria elimination of ensuring universal access to malaria diagnosis and treatment is faring-it is safe to say "not so well". Core issues that must be addressed to ensure universal access to diagnosis and treatment, and achieve elimination, include lack of access to these essential services for those with malaria and the lack of a common effective service delivery approach to ensure high quality diagnosis and treatment, especially in the private sector which provides the bulk of malaria case management services in many settings. The barriers to universal access to high quality diagnosis and treatment for malaria will need to be addressed if malaria elimination is to remain a real possibility in the foreseeable future.

Estimation of malaria parasite reservoir coverage using reactive case detection and active community fever screening from census data with rapid diagnostic tests in southern Zambia: a re-sampling approach.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: In areas where malaria transmission has been suppressed by vector control interventions many malaria control and elimination programmes are actively seeking new interventions to further reduce malaria prevalence, incidence and transmission. Malaria infection prevalence and incidence has been shown to cluster geographically, especially at lower transmission levels, and as such a reactive strategy is frequently used, by which index cases presenting to a passive surveillance system are used to target small areas for testing and treatment, reactive case detection (RCD), or focal drug administration (fDA). This study utilizes geo-located data from a census with parasitological testing with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and treatment-seeking data collection conducted in southern Zambia to estimate the coverage of RCD or fDA in terms of the population and parasite reservoir as well as the operational requirements of such strategies, using a re-sampling algorithm developed exclusively for this purpose. This re-sampling algorithm allows for the specification of several parameters, such that different operational variants of these reactive strategies can be examined, including varying the search radius, screening for fever, or presumptive treatment (fDA). RESULTS: Results indicate that RCD, fDA and active fever screening followed by RCD, even with search radii over several hundered meters will only yield limited coverage of the RDT positive parasite reservoir during a short period. Long-term use of these strategies may increase this proportion. Reactive strategies detect a higher proportion of the reservoir of infections than random searches, but this effect appears to be greater in areas of low, but not moderate malaria prevalence in southern Zambia. DISCUSSION: Increases in the sensitivity of RDTs could also affect these results. The number of individuals and households that need to be searched increase rapidly, but approximately linearly with search radius. CONCLUSIONS: Reactive strategies in southern Zambia yield improved identification of the parasite reservoir when targeted to areas with prevalence less than 10%. The operational requirements of delivering reactive strategies routinely are likely to prevent their uptake until prevalence falls far below this level.

Current and cumulative malaria infections in a setting embarking on elimination: Amhara, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Since 2005, Ethiopia has aggressively scaled up malaria prevention and case management. As a result, the number of malaria cases and deaths has significantly declined. In order to track progress towards the elimination of malaria in Amhara Region, coverage of malaria control tools and current malaria transmission need to be documented. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey oversampling children under 5 years of age was conducted during the dry season in 2013. A bivalent rapid diagnostic test (RDT) detecting both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax and serology assays using merozoite antigens from both these species were used to assess the prevalence of malaria infections and exposure to malaria parasites in 16 woredas (districts) in Amhara Region. RESULTS: 7878 participants were included, with a mean age of 16.8 years (range 0.5-102.8 years) and 42.0% being children under 5 years of age. The age-adjusted RDT-positivity for P. falciparum and P. vivax infection was 1.5 and 0.4%, respectively, of which 0.05% presented as co-infections. Overall age-adjusted seroprevalence was 30.0% for P. falciparum, 21.8% for P. vivax, and seroprevalence for any malaria species was 39.4%. The prevalence of RDT-positive infections varied by woreda, ranging from 0.0 to 8.3% and by altitude with rates of 3.2, 0.7, and 0.4% at under 2000, 2000-2500, and >2500 m, respectively. Serological analysis showed heterogeneity in transmission intensity by area and altitude and evidence for a change in the force of infection in the mid-2000s. CONCLUSIONS: Current and historic malaria transmission across Amhara Region show substantial variation by age and altitude with some settings showing very low or near-zero transmission. Plasmodium vivax infections appear to be lower but relatively more stable across geography and altitude, while P. falciparum is the dominant infection in the higher transmission, low-altitude areas. Age-dependent seroprevalence analyses indicates a drop in transmission occurred in the mid-2000s, coinciding with malaria control scale-up efforts. As malaria parasitaemia rates get very low with elimination efforts, serological evaluation may help track progress to elimination.

Short-term Impact of Mass Drug Administration With Dihydroartemisinin Plus Piperaquine on Malaria in Southern Province Zambia: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) using dihydroartemisinin plus piperaquine (DHAp) represents a potential strategy to clear Plasmodium falciparum infections and reduce the human parasite reservoir. METHODS: A cluster-randomized controlled trial in Southern Province, Zambia, was used to assess the short-term impact of 2 rounds of community-wide MDA and household-level (focal) MDA with DHAp compared with no mass treatment. Study end points included parasite prevalence in children, infection incidence, and confirmed malaria case incidence. RESULTS: All end points significantly decreased after intervention, irrespective of treatment group. Parasite prevalence from 7.71% at baseline to 0.54% after MDA in lower-transmission areas, resulting in an 87% reduction compared with control (adjusted odds ratio, 0.13; 95% confidence interval, .02-.92; P = .04). No difference between treatment groups was observed in areas of high transmission. The 5-month cumulative infection incidence was 70% lower (crude incidence rate ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, .06-1.49; P = .14) and 58% lower (0.42; .18-.98; P = .046) after MDA compared with control in lower- and higher-transmission areas, respectively. No significant impact of focal MDA was observed for any end point. CONCLUSIONS: Two rounds of MDA with DHAp rapidly reduced infection prevalence, infection incidence, and confirmed case incidence rates, especially in low-transmission areas. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02329301.

Mass testing and treatment for malaria in low transmission areas in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: In areas with ongoing malaria transmission, strategies to clear parasites from populations can reduce infection and transmission. The objective of this paper was to describe a malaria mass testing and treatment (MTAT) intervention implemented in six kebeles (villages) in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, at the beginning of the 2014 transmission season. METHODS: Intervention kebeles were selected based on incidence of passively detected Plasmodium falciparum and mixed (P. falciparum and P. vivax) malaria cases during the 2013 malaria transmission season. All households in intervention kebeles were targeted; consenting residents received a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and RDT-positive individuals received artemether-lumefantrine for P. falciparum/mixed infections or chloroquine for P. vivax. Data were collected on MTAT participation, sociodemographic characteristics, malaria risk factors, and RDT positivity. RESULTS: Of 9162 households targeted, 7974 (87.0 %) participated in the MTAT. Among the 35,389 residents of these households, 30,712 (86.8 %) received an RDT. RDT-positivity was 1.4 % (0.3 % P. vivax, 0.7 % P. falciparum, 0.3 % mixed), ranging from 0.3 to 5.1 % by kebele; 39.4 % of RDT-positive individuals were febrile, 28.5 % resided in the same household with another RDT-positive individual, 23.0 % were not protected by vector control interventions [mosquito net or indoor residual spray (IRS)], and 7.1 % had travel history. For individuals under 10 years of age, the odds of being RDT-positive was significantly higher for those with fever, recent use of anti-malarial drugs or residing in the same household with another RDT-positive individual; 59.0 % of RDT-positive individuals had at least one of these risk factors. For individuals 10 years of age and older, the odds of being RDT positive was significantly higher for those with reported travel, fever, recent use of anti-malarial drugs, no use of vector control, and those residing in the same household as another RDT-positive individual; 71.2 % of RDT-positive individuals had at least one of these risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: In the Ethiopia setting, an MTAT intervention is operationally feasible and can be conducted with high coverage. RDT-positivity is low and varies widely by kebele. While several risk factors are significantly associated with RDT-positivity, there are still many RDT-positive individuals who do not have any of these risk factors. Strategies that target populations for testing and treatment based on these risk factors alone are likely to leave many infections undetected.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of a large-scale mass testing and treatment intervention for malaria in Southern Province, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: A cluster, randomized, control trial of three dry-season rounds of a mass testing and treatment intervention (MTAT) using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) was conducted in four districts in Southern Province, Zambia. METHODS: Data were collected on the costs and logistics of the intervention and paired with effectiveness estimated from a community randomized control trial for the purpose of conducting a provider perspective cost-effectiveness analysis of MTAT vs no MTAT (Standard of Care). RESULTS: Dry-season MTAT in this setting did not reduce malaria transmission sufficiently to permit transition to a case-investigation strategy to then pursue malaria elimination, however, the intervention did substantially reduce malaria illness and was a highly cost-effective intervention for malaria burden reduction in this moderate transmission area. The cost per RDT administered was estimated to be USD4.39 (range: USD1.62-13.96) while the cost per AL treatment administered was estimated to be USD34.74 (range: USD3.87-3,835). The net cost per disability adjusted life year averted (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) was estimated to be USD804. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention appears to be highly cost-effective relative to World Health Organization thresholds for malaria burden reduction in Zambia as compared to no MTAT. However, it was estimated that population-wide mass drug administration is likely to be more cost-effective for burden reduction and for transmission reduction compared to MTAT.

A methodological framework for the improved use of routine health system data to evaluate national malaria control programs: evidence from Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Due to challenges in laboratory confirmation, reporting completeness, timeliness, and health access, routine incidence data from health management information systems (HMIS) have rarely been used for the rigorous evaluation of malaria control program scale-up in Africa. METHODS: We used data from the Zambia HMIS for 2009-2011, a period of rapid diagnostic and reporting scale-up, to evaluate the association between insecticide-treated net (ITN) program intensity and district-level monthly confirmed outpatient malaria incidence using a dose-response national platform approach with district-time units as the unit of analysis. A Bayesian geostatistical model was employed to estimate longitudinal district-level ITN coverage from household survey and programmatic data, and a conditional autoregressive model (CAR) was used to impute missing HMIS data. The association between confirmed malaria case incidence and ITN program intensity was modeled while controlling for known confounding factors, including climate variability, reporting, testing, treatment-seeking, and access to health care, and additionally accounting for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. RESULTS: An increase in district level ITN coverage of one ITN per household was associated with an estimated 27% reduction in confirmed case incidence overall (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0 · 73, 95% Bayesian Credible Interval (BCI): 0 · 65-0 · 81), and a 41% reduction in areas of lower malaria burden. CONCLUSIONS: When improved through comprehensive parasitologically confirmed case reporting, HMIS data can become a valuable tool for evaluating malaria program scale-up. Using this approach we provide further evidence that increased ITN coverage is associated with decreased malaria morbidity and use of health services for malaria illness in Zambia. These methods and results are broadly relevant for malaria program evaluations currently ongoing in sub-Saharan Africa, especially as routine confirmed case data improve.

Health impact and cost-effectiveness of a private sector bed net distribution: experimental evidence from Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Relatively few programmes have attempted to actively engage the private sector in national malaria control efforts. This paper evaluates the health impact of a large-scale distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) conducted in partnership with a Zambian agribusiness, and its cost-effectiveness from the perspective of the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP). METHODS: The study was designed as a cluster-randomized controlled trial. A list of 81,597 cotton farmers was obtained from Dunavant, a contract farming company in Zambia's cotton sector, in December 2010. 39,963 (49%) were randomly selected to obtain one ITN each. Follow-up interviews were conducted with 438 farmers in the treatment and 458 farmers in the control group in June and July 2011. Treatment and control households were compared with respect to bed net ownership, bed net usage, self-reported fever, and self-reported confirmed malaria. Cost data was collected throughout the programme. RESULTS: The distribution effectively reached target beneficiaries, with approximately 95% of households in the treatment group reporting that they had received an ITN through the programme. The average increase in the fraction of household members sleeping under an ITN the night prior to the interview was 14.6 percentage points (p-value <0.001). Treatment was associated with a 42 percent reduction in the odds of self-reported fever (p-value <0.001) and with a 49 percent reduction in the odds of self-reported malaria (p-value 0.002). This was accomplished at a cost of approximately five US$ per ITN to Zambia's NMCP. CONCLUSIONS: The results illustrate that existing private sector networks can efficiently control malaria in remote rural regions. The intra-household allocation of ITNs distributed through this channel was comparable to that of ITNs received from other sources, and the health impact remained substantial.

Case investigation and reactive case detection for malaria elimination in northern Senegal.

BACKGROUND: Given progress in malaria control in recent years, many control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa will soon be required to strengthen systems for surveillance in order to further drive transmission to zero. Yet few practical experiences are available to guide control programmes in designing surveillance system components in low transmission, pre-elimination, and elimination phases. METHODS: A malaria case investigation programme was piloted for 12 weeks in 2012 in Richard Toll district of northern Senegal. Malaria infections (N = 110) were identified through facility-based passive case detection and investigated within three days. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and a brief questionnaire were administered to 5,520 individuals living within the index case compound or within five neighbouring compounds. RESULTS: In comparison with family and neighbours, index cases were more likely to be male, age 15-49, and to report travel within the past 15 days that entailed an overnight stay. Twenty-three (0.4%) of family/neighbours were RDT-positive. Potential risk factors for infection among family and neighbours were examined, including: sex, age, occupation, travel history, bed net usage, and residence (index vs neighbouring compound). Adjusting for all factors, relative risk (RR) of infection was associated with residence in the index case household (RR = 3.18, p < 0.05) and recent travel, including travel to Dakar (RR = 19.93, p < 0.001), travel within the region (RR = 9.57, p < 0.01), and to other regions in Senegal (RR = 94.30, p < 0.001). Recent fever among RDT-positive family/neighbours was uncommon (30%). Modifications to testing criteria were examined to optimize the efficiency of secondary case investigations in this population. Limiting blood testing to residents of the index case compound and neighbours with recent travel or fever would have identified 20/23 (87%) of the infections through testing 1,173 individuals. Information on the remaining three infections suggests that additional screening for boarding school attendees may facilitate identification of all cases. CONCLUSIONS: The primary risk factor for malaria infection in the low transmission district of Richard Toll is travel. Additional intervention and monitoring strategies to target travellers at risk of malaria infection are needed in this region. Optimizing case investigation with specific targeted testing and treatment of at-risk family and neighbours strengthens the systems needed for continued progress towards malaria elimination in northern Senegal.

Documenting malaria case management coverage in Zambia: a systems effectiveness approach.

BACKGROUND: National malaria control programmes and their partners must document progress associated with investments in malaria control. While documentation has been achieved through population-based surveys for most interventions, measuring changes in malaria case management has been challenging because the increasing use of diagnostic tests reduces the denominator of febrile children who should receive anti-malarial treatment. Thus the widely used indicator, "proportion of children under five with fever in the last two weeks who received anti-malarial treatment according to national policy within 24 hours from onset of fever" is no longer relevant. METHODS: An alternative sequence of indicators using a systems effectiveness approach was examined using data from nationally representative surveys in Zambia: the 2012 population-based Malaria Indictor Survey (MIS) and the 2011 Health Facility Survey (HFS). The MIS measured fever treatment-seeking behaviour among 972 children under five years (CU5) and 1,848 people age five years and above. The HFS assessed management of 435 CU5 and 429 people age five and above with fever/history of fever seeking care at 149 health facilities. Consultation observation and exit interviews measured use of diagnostic tests, artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) prescription, and patient comprehension of prescribed regimens. RESULTS: Systems effectiveness for malaria case management among CU5 was estimated as follows: [100% ACT efficacy] x [55% fever treatment-seeking from an appropriate provider (MIS)] x [71% malaria blood testing (HFS)] x [86% ACT prescription for positive cases (HFS)] x [73% patient comprehension of prescribed ACT drug regimens (HFS)] = 25%. Systems effectiveness for malaria case management among people age five and above was estimated at 15%. CONCLUSIONS: Tracking progress in malaria case management coverage can no longer rely solely on population-based surveys; the way forward likely entails household surveys to track trends in fever treatment-seeking behaviour, and facility/provider data to track appropriate management of febrile patients. Applying health facility and population-based data to the systems effectiveness framework provides a cogent and feasible approach to documenting malaria case management coverage and identifying gaps to direct program action. In Zambia, this approach identified treatment-seeking behaviour as the largest contributor to reduction in systems effectiveness for malaria case management.

Surveillance as a Core Intervention to Strengthen Malaria Control Programs in Moderate to High Transmission Settings.

New tools are needed for malaria control, and recent improvements in malaria surveillance have opened the possibility of transforming surveillance into a core intervention. Implementing this strategy can be challenging in moderate to high transmission settings. However, there is a wealth of practical experience among national malaria control programs and partners working to improve and use malaria surveillance data to guide programming. Granular and timely data are critical to understanding geographic heterogeneity, appropriately defining and targeting interventions packages, and enabling timely decision-making at the operational level. Resources to be targeted based on surveillance data include vector control, case management commodities, outbreak responses, quality improvement interventions, and human resources, including community health workers, as they contribute to a more refined granularity of the surveillance system. Effectively transforming malaria surveillance into a core intervention will require strong global and national leadership, empowerment of subnational and local leaders, collaboration among development partners, and global coordination. Ensuring that national health systems include community health work can contribute to a successful transformation. It will require a strong supply chain to ensure that all suspected cases can be diagnosed and data reporting tools including appropriate electronic devices to provide timely data. Regular data quality audits, decentralized implementation, supportive supervision, data-informed decision-making processes, and harnessing technology for data analysis and visualization are needed to improve the capacity for data-driven decision-making at all levels. Finally, resources must be available to respond programmatically to these decisions.

Mathematical models in the evaluation of health programmes.

Modelling is valuable in the planning and evaluation of interventions, especially when a controlled trial is ethically or logistically impossible. Models are often used to calculate the expected course of events in the absence of more formal assessments. They are also used to derive estimates of rare or future events from recorded intermediate points. When developing models, decisions are needed about the appropriate level of complexity to be represented and about model structure and assumptions. The degree of rigor in model development and assessment can vary greatly, and there is a danger that existing beliefs inappropriately influence judgments about model assumptions and results.

Estimates of child deaths prevented from malaria prevention scale-up in Africa 2001-2010.

BACKGROUND: Funding from external agencies for malaria control in Africa has increased dramatically over the past decade resulting in substantial increases in population coverage by effective malaria prevention interventions. This unprecedented effort to scale-up malaria interventions is likely improving child survival and will likely contribute to meeting Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 to reduce the < 5 mortality rate by two thirds between 1990 and 2015. METHODS: The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) model was used to quantify the likely impact that malaria prevention intervention scale-up has had on malaria mortality over the past decade (2001-2010) across 43 malaria endemic countries in sub-Saharan African. The likely impact of ITNs and malaria prevention interventions in pregnancy (intermittent preventive treatment [IPTp] and ITNs used during pregnancy) over this period was assessed. RESULTS: The LiST model conservatively estimates that malaria prevention intervention scale-up over the past decade has prevented 842,800 (uncertainty: 562,800-1,364,645) child deaths due to malaria across 43 malaria-endemic countries in Africa, compared to a baseline of the year 2000. Over the entire decade, this represents an 8.2% decrease in the number of malaria-caused child deaths that would have occurred over this period had malaria prevention coverage remained unchanged since 2000. The biggest impact occurred in 2010 with a 24.4% decrease in malaria-caused child deaths compared to what would have happened had malaria prevention interventions not been scaled-up beyond 2000 coverage levels. ITNs accounted for 99% of the lives saved. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that funding for malaria prevention in Africa over the past decade has had a substantial impact on decreasing child deaths due to malaria. Rapidly achieving and then maintaining universal coverage of these interventions should be an urgent priority for malaria control programmes in the future. Successful scale-up in many African countries will likely contribute substantially to meeting MDG 4, as well as succeed in meeting MDG 6 (Target 1) to halt and reverse malaria incidence by 2015.

Reactive focal drug administration associated with decreased malaria transmission in an elimination setting: Serological evidence from the cluster-randomized CoRE study.

Efforts to eliminate malaria transmission need evidence-based strategies. However, accurately assessing end-game malaria elimination strategies is challenging due to the low level of transmission and the rarity of infections. We hypothesised that presumptively treating individuals during reactive case detection (RCD) would reduce transmission and that serology would more sensitively detect this change over standard approaches. We conducted a cluster randomised control trial (NCT02654912) of presumptive reactive focal drug administration (RFDA-intervention) compared to the standard of care, reactive focal test and treat (RFTAT-control) in Southern Province, Zambia-an area of low seasonal transmission (overall incidence of ~3 per 1,000). We measured routine malaria incidence from health facilities as well as PCR parasite prevalence / antimalarial seroprevalence in an endline cross-sectional population survey. No significant difference was identified from routine incidence data and endline prevalence by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) had insufficient numbers of malaria infections (i.e., 16 infections among 6,276 children) to assess the intervention. Comparing long-term serological markers, we found a 19% (95% CI = 4-32%) reduction in seropositivity for the RFDA intervention using a difference in differences approach incorporating serological positivity and age. We also found a 37% (95% CI = 2-59%) reduction in seropositivity to short-term serological markers in a post-only comparison. These serological analyses provide compelling evidence that RFDA both has an impact on malaria transmission and is an appropriate end-game malaria elimination strategy. Furthermore, serology provides a more sensitive approach to measure changes in transmission that other approaches miss, particularly in very low transmission settings. Trial Registration: Registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02654912, 13/1/2016).