A regression discontinuity analysis of the social distancing recommendations for older adults in Sweden during COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: This article investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviours and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (March to July 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household. METHODS: We used a regression discontinuity design-in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden (n = 96 053; age range: 39-79 years) and national register data (age range: 39-100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21 804) and confirmed cases (n = 48 984)-to estimate the effects of the policy. RESULTS: Our primary analyses showed a sharp drop in the weekly number of visits to crowded places (-13%) and severe COVID-19 cases (-16%) at the 70-year threshold. These results imply that the age-specific recommendations prevented approximately 1800-2700 severe COVID-19 cases, depending on model specification. CONCLUSIONS: It seems that the non-mandatory, age-specific recommendations helped control COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the pandemic in Sweden, as opposed to not implementing a social distancing policy aimed at older adults. Our study provides empirical data on how populations may react to non-mandatory, age-specific social distancing policies in the face of a novel virus.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 30 European countries: the ECDC-JRC Response Measures Database.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries implemented a wide set of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), sometimes with limited knowledge on their effect and impact on population. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) developed a Response Measures Database (ECDC-JRC RMD) to archive NPIs in 30 EU/EEA countries from 1 January 2020 to 30 September 2022. We aimed to introduce a tool for the wider scientific community to assess COVID-19 NPIs effect and impact in the EU/EEA. We give an overview of the ECDC-JRC RMD rationale and structure, including a brief analysis of the main NPIs applied in 2020, before the roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. The ECDC-JRC RMD organises NPIs through a three-level hierarchical structure and uses four additional parameters ('status', 'implementation', 'target group' and 'geographical representation') to provide further information on the implementation of each measure. Features including the ready-for-analysis, downloadable format and its agile taxonomy and structure highlight the potential of the ECDC-JRC RMD to facilitate further NPI analysis and optimise decision making on public health response policies.