Preparing for Mpox Resurgence: Surveillance Lessons From Outbreaks in Toronto, Canada.

BACKGROUND: With many global jurisdictions, Toronto, Canada, experienced an mpox outbreak in spring/summer 2022. Cases declined following implementation of a large vaccination campaign. A surge in early 2023 led to speculation that asymptomatic and/or undetected local transmission was occurring in the city. METHODS: Mpox cases and positive laboratory results are reported to Toronto Public Health. Epidemic curves and descriptive risk factor summaries for the 2022 and 2023 outbreaks were generated. First- and second-dose vaccination was monitored. Mpox virus wastewater surveillance and whole genome sequencing were conducted to generate hypotheses about the source of the 2023 resurgence. RESULTS: An overall 515 cases were reported in spring/summer 2022 and 17 in the 2022-2023 resurgence. Wastewater data correlated with the timing of cases. Whole genome sequencing showed that 2022-2023 cases were distinct from 2022 cases and closer to sequences from another country, suggesting a new importation as a source. At the start of the resurgence, approximately 16% of first-dose vaccine recipients had completed their second dose. CONCLUSIONS: This investigation demonstrates the importance of ongoing surveillance and preparedness for mpox outbreaks. Undetected local transmission was not a likely source of the 2022-2023 resurgence. Ongoing preexposure vaccine promotion remains important to mitigate disease burden.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak Associated With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) P.1 Lineage in a Long-Term Care Home After Implementation of a Vaccination Program-Ontario, Canada, April-May 2021.

In a P.1 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in a long-term care home, vaccine effectiveness against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection was 52.5% (95% confidence interval: 26.9%-69.1%) in residents and 66.2% (2.3%-88.3%) in staff. Vaccine effectiveness against severe illness was 78.6% (47.9%-91.2%) in residents. Two of 19 vaccinated resident case patients died. Outbreak management required both vaccination and infection control measures.

An Evaluation of Service Provision and Novel Strength Assessment on Patient Outcomes in a UK-Based Pulmonary Rehabilitation Setting.

This study's purpose was to (i) assess the impact of a 7-week pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) programme upon patient outcomes; incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT), COPD assessment tool (CAT), Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS); (ii) assess the impact of COPD severity on ISWT, psychological functioning and quality of life measures following PR; (iii) assess the feasibility of incorporating individually prescribed one repetition maximum (1RM) training loads into the existing strength training programme. Patients were people with COPD enrolled onto one of three versions (locations A, B and C) of a 7-week PR programme, which consisted of group exercise sessions and a social plus education element. Two locations incorporated individually prescribed training loads. Minimal clinically important changes (MCICs) are reported for the ISWT across all locations. Statistically significant changes in both CAT and the CCQ were found, with MCIC's evident for CAT score overall and individually at location B. MCIC's were not found for the CCQ. No statistically significant or MCICs were evident for the HADS. MCIC's were present only in patients with mild to moderate severity for the ISWT. For the CAT, moderate, severe and very severe patients with COPD experienced MCIC's. MCIC's and statistically significant increases in 1RM strength were seen at both locations. These findings evidence an effective PR service. Basic strength exercise programming and assessment are feasible and should be implemented in PR services to maximise patient outcomes.

Wastewater surveillance for COVID-19 in shelters: A creative strategy for a complex setting.

People experiencing homelessness experience disproportionate rates of morbidity and mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) compared to the general population and shelters for people experiencing homelessness are a major contributing factor to these negative outcomes. As a result of their unique structure, population and physical space, these settings pose several challenges to the prevention of COVID-19 infection that are not adequately addressed by conventional non-pharmaceutical public health interventions. Wastewater surveillance for COVID-19 is a viable strategy for health protection in shelters due to its ability to meet these unique challenges. Its passive nature does not depend on individual health-seeking behaviours, and it can provide useful epidemiological information early on in an outbreak setting. In this commentary, the authors examine a recent application of wastewater surveillance of COVID-19 in a men's shelter in Toronto. Further applications of wastewater surveillance for other infectious diseases of concern in shelters are proposed, and the need for the development of ethical frameworks governing the use of this technology is discussed.

Early identification of a COVID-19 outbreak detected by wastewater surveillance at a large homeless shelter in Toronto, Ontario.

SETTING: Toronto (Ontario, Canada) is a large urban centre with a significant population of underhoused residents and several dozen shelters for this population with known medical and social vulnerabilities. A sizeable men's homeless shelter piloted a facility-level SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance program. INTERVENTION: Wastewater surveillance was initiated at the shelter in January 2021. One-hour composite wastewater samples were collected twice weekly from a terminal sanitary clean-out pipe. The genetic material of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was extracted from the solid phase of each sample and analyzed using real-time qPCR to estimate the viral level. Wastewater results were reported to facility managers and Toronto Public Health within 4 days. OUTCOMES: There were 169 clients on-site at the time of the investigation. Wastewater surveillance alerted to the presence of COVID-19 activity at the site, prior to clinical detection. This notification acted as an early warning signal, which allowed for timely symptom screening and case finding for shelter managers and the local health unit, in preparation for the declaration of an outbreak. IMPLICATIONS: Wastewater surveillance acted as an advanced notification leading to the timely deployment of enhanced testing prior to clinical presentation in a population with known vulnerabilities. Wastewater surveillance at the facility level is beneficial, particularly in high-risk congregate living settings such as shelters that house transient populations where clinical testing and vaccination can be challenging. Open communication, established individual facility response plans, and a balanced threshold for action are essential to an effective wastewater surveillance program.

RéSUMé: LIEU: Toronto (Ontario, Canada) est un grand centre urbain qui compte une importante population de résidents mal logés et plusieurs douzaines de refuges pour cette population aux vulnérabilités médicales et sociales connues. Un assez gros refuge pour hommes sans-abri a mis à l'essai dans ses installations un programme de surveillance des eaux usées pour le SRAS-CoV-2. INTERVENTION: La surveillance des eaux usées du refuge a commencé en janvier 2021. Des échantillons composites d'une heure ont été prélevés deux fois par semaine à partir d'un regard de nettoyage à l'extrémité du drain sanitaire. Le matériel génétique du virus du SRAS-CoV-2 a été extrait du support solide de chaque échantillon et analysé par PCR quantitative en temps réel pour estimer le niveau du virus. Les résultats des eaux usées ont été déclarés aux gestionnaires du refuge et à Santé publique Toronto dans un délai de quatre jours. RéSULTATS: Il y avait 169 usagers sur place au moment de l'enquête. La surveillance des eaux usées a averti de la présence d'une activité de la COVID-19 sur les lieux avant sa détection clinique. Cet avertissement a servi de signal d'alerte précoce, ce qui a permis aux gestionnaires du refuge et au bureau de santé local de procéder au dépistage rapide des symptômes et à la recherche des cas en préparation pour la déclaration d'une éclosion. CONSéQUENCES: La surveillance des eaux usées a servi de notification préalable et entraîné le déploiement opportun d'un dépistage complémentaire avant la manifestation clinique dans une population qui présente des vulnérabilités connues. La surveillance des eaux usées d'une installation est avantageuse, surtout dans des milieux d'hébergement collectif à risque élevé comme les refuges qui hébergent des populations de passage, où le dépistage clinique et la vaccination peuvent être difficiles. Une communication ouverte, des plans d'intervention établis pour chaque installation et un seuil d'intervention équilibré sont essentiels à l'efficacité d'un programme de surveillance des eaux usées.

A wastewater-based epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with application to three Canadian cities.

The COVID-19 pandemic has stimulated wastewater-based surveillance, allowing public health to track the epidemic by monitoring the concentration of the genetic fingerprints of SARS-CoV-2 shed in wastewater by infected individuals. Wastewater-based surveillance for COVID-19 is still in its infancy. In particular, the quantitative link between clinical cases observed through traditional surveillance and the signals from viral concentrations in wastewater is still developing and hampers interpretation of the data and actionable public-health decisions. We present a modelling framework that includes both SARS-CoV-2 transmission at the population level and the fate of SARS-CoV-2 RNA particles in the sewage system after faecal shedding by infected persons in the population. Using our mechanistic representation of the combined clinical/wastewater system, we perform exploratory simulations to quantify the effect of surveillance effectiveness, public-health interventions and vaccination on the discordance between clinical and wastewater signals. We also apply our model to surveillance data from three Canadian cities to provide wastewater-informed estimates for the actual prevalence, the effective reproduction number and incidence forecasts. We find that wastewater-based surveillance, paired with this model, can complement clinical surveillance by supporting the estimation of key epidemiological metrics and hence better triangulate the state of an epidemic using this alternative data source.

Active tuberculosis among homeless persons, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, 1998-2007.

While tuberculosis (TB) in Canadian cities is increasingly affecting foreign-born persons, homeless persons remain at high risk. To assess trends in TB, we studied all homeless persons in Toronto who had a diagnosis of active TB during 1998-2007. We compared Canada-born and foreign-born homeless persons and assessed changes over time. We identified 91 homeless persons with active TB; they typically had highly contagious, advanced disease, and 19% died within 12 months of diagnosis. The proportion of homeless persons who were foreign-born increased from 24% in 1998-2002 to 39% in 2003-2007. Among foreign-born homeless persons with TB, 56% of infections were caused by strains not known to circulate among homeless persons in Toronto. Only 2% of infections were resistant to first-line TB medications. The rise in foreign-born homeless persons with TB strains likely acquired overseas suggests that the risk for drug-resistant strains entering the homeless shelter system may be escalating.

Risk factors associated with group A Streptococcus acquisition in a large, urban homeless shelter outbreak.

OBJECTIVE: Group A Streptococcus (GAS) is a frequent cause of outbreaks in healthcare institutions, yet outbreak reports in the literature from homeless shelters are less common, despite an increased risk of severe GAS infection in homeless populations. In 2016, we conducted a case-control study to identify significant risk factors associated with GAS acquisition in a protracted, 19-month outbreak of GAS in a large, urban men's homeless shelter in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: Cases (individuals with either clinical GAS emm74 infection or asymptomatic carriers of GAS emm74) and controls were identified from shelter residents from February to September 2016. Information on demographics, clinical presentation, pre-existing health conditions, and risk factors for GAS transmission were collected for all study participants from a variety of sources, including the public health notifiable disease information system, electronic health records, the shelter electronic information system, and interviews with client services workers. RESULTS: From the multivariable logistic regression model, younger individuals (OR 9.1; 95% CI 1.57-52.9), those with previous skin conditions (OR 56.2; 95% CI 2.73-1160), and those with recent wounds (with wound care: OR 51.5, 95% CI 8.86-299, and without wound care: OR 77.4, 95% CI 7.38-812) were found to be at increased risk of acquiring GAS in this outbreak. CONCLUSION: The outbreak investigation clearly demonstrated the need for improved wound care and infection prevention and control practices, for early screening and detection of skin and soft tissue infections, and for a comprehensive, integrated electronic information system in homeless shelters.

Kill or cure? Different types of social class identification amplify and buffer the relation between social class and mental health.

The present research investigated different types of social class identification as moderators of the negative relation between social class and mental health problems. Psychology undergraduates (N = 355) completed an online survey that included measures of social class, mental health and well-being, and three aspects of social class identification: importance of identity, salience of identity, and perceived self-class similarity. Perceived self-class similarity buffered the negative association between social class and depressive symptoms. However, importance and salience of social class identity amplified the associations between social class and anxiety and life satisfaction. These findings contribute to a more sophisticated understanding of the way in which social identification may operate as a social cure.

Technology and tuberculosis control: the OUT-TB Web experience.

OBJECTIVE: Develop a tool to disseminate integrated laboratory, clinical, and demographic case data necessary for improved contact tracing and outbreak detection of tuberculosis (TB). METHODS: In 2007, the Public Health Ontario Laboratories implemented a universal genotyping program to monitor the spread of TB strains within Ontario. Ontario Universal Typing of TB (OUT-TB) Web utilizes geographic information system (GIS) technology with a relational database platform, allowing TB control staff to visualize genotyping matches and microbiological data within the context of relevant epidemiological and demographic data. RESULTS: OUT-TB Web is currently available to the 8 health units responsible for >85% of Ontario's TB cases and is a valuable tool for TB case investigation. Users identified key features to implement for application enhancements, including an e-mail alert function, customizable heat maps for visualizing TB and drug-resistant cases, socioeconomic map layers, a dashboard providing TB surveillance metrics, and a feature for animating the geographic spread of strains over time. CONCLUSION: OUT-TB Web has proven to be an award-winning application and a useful tool. Developed and enhanced using regular user feedback, future versions will include additional data sources, enhanced map and line-list filter capabilities, and development of a mobile app.

Marked microevolution of a unique Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain in 17 years of ongoing transmission in a high risk population.

The transmission and persistence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis within high risk populations is a threat to tuberculosis (TB) control. In the current study, we used whole genome sequencing (WGS) to decipher the transmission dynamics and microevolution of M. tuberculosis ON-A, an endemic strain responsible for an ongoing outbreak of TB in an urban homeless/under-housed population. Sixty-one M. tuberculosis isolates representing 57 TB cases from 1997 to 2013 were subjected to WGS. Sequencing data was integrated with available epidemiological information and analyzed to determine how the M. tuberculosis ON-A strain has evolved during almost two decades of active transmission. WGS offers higher discriminatory power than traditional genotyping techniques, dividing the M. tuberculosis ON-A strain into 6 sub-clusters, each defined by unique single nucleotide polymorphism profiles. One sub-cluster, designated ON-ANM (Natural Mutant; 26 isolates from 24 cases) was also defined by a large, 15 kb genomic deletion. WGS analysis reveals the existence of multiple transmission chains within the same population/setting. Our results help validate the utility of WGS as a powerful tool for identifying genomic changes and adaptation of M. tuberculosis.

Performance analysis of a medical decision algorithm to mitigate spread of SARS due to interfacility patient transfers.

OBJECTIVE: To determine performance of a medical decision algorithm to mitigate spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) from interfacility patient transfers during the Toronto SARS outbreak. METHODS: Records from the Provincial Transfer Authorization Centre and Toronto Public Health from April 1 to July 31, 2003, were linked using probabilistic methods. Authorization decision (transfer authorized or denied) and SARS status (probable case, suspect case, or patient under investigation for SARS; or non-SARS case) were obtained for linked records. Primary outcome was the number of patients where correct authorization decisions were made based on SARS status at the time of request. Secondary outcome was the number for whom, in retrospect, authorization decision was correct knowing final SARS status. Algorithm sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were determined. RESULTS: There were 14,571 requests for transfer and 2,132 patients investigated for SARS during the study period. The algorithm authorized 14,551 and did not authorize 20 requests. Sensitivity and specificity to make appropriate authorization decisions at the time of request were 100% (95% confidence interval [CI], 77.2%-100%) and 99.95% (95% CI, 99.9-100%), respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 65% (95% CI, 44.1%-85.9%) and 100% (95% CI, 98.4%-100%), respectively. Sensitivity and specificity, in retrospect, within ten days of the transfer request were 100% (95% CI, 80.6%-100%) and 99.97% (95% CI, 99.9%-100%), respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 80% (95% CI, 62.5%-97.5%) and 100% (95% CI, 98.4%-100%), respectively. Seven of the 20 patients with nonauthorized requests were not known to have SARS at the time of request. Within ten days, three of seven were under investigation for, a suspect case of, or a probable case of SARS. CONCLUSIONS: The medical decision algorithm was highly sensitive and specific in correctly authorizing transfers. Despite its highly sensitive and specific algorithm, it did incorrectly deny authorization to a very small number of patients without SARS.