The Effect of Nationwide Organized Cancer Screening Programs on Gastric Cancer Mortality: A Synthetic Control Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Nationwide organized gastric cancer (GC) screening programs have been running for decades in South Korea and Japan. This study conducted a quasi-experimental analysis to assess the population impact of these programs on GC mortality. METHODS: We used the flexible synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the effect of the screening programs on age-standardized GC mortality and other upper gastrointestinal (UGI) diseases (esophageal cancer and peptic ulcer) among people aged ≥40 years. World Health Organization mortality data and country-level covariates from the World Bank and the Global Burden of Diseases study were used for the analyses. We compared postintervention trends in outcome with the counterfactual trend of the synthetic control and estimated average postintervention rate ratios (RRs) with associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The preintervention fits were acceptable for the analyses of South Korea and Japan's GC mortality but poor for Japan's other UGI disease mortality. The average postintervention RRs were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.71-0.96) for GC mortality and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.57-0.90) for other UGI disease mortality in South Korea. The RR reached 0.59 by the 15th year after the initiation of nationwide screening. For Japan, the average RRs were 0.97 (95% CI, 0.88-1.07) for GC mortality and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.68-1.28) for other UGI disease mortality. Sensitivity analysis reveals the result for Japan may potentially be biased. CONCLUSIONS: South Korea's nationwide GC screening has apparent benefits, whereas the Japanese program's effectiveness is uncertain. The experiences of South Korea and Japan could serve as a reference for other countries.

Global patterns of cancer transitions: A modelling study.

Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden. Many countries experienced or are experiencing the transition that non-infection-related cancers replace infection-related cancers. We aimed to characterise burden changes for major types of cancers and identify global transition patterns. We focused on 10 most common cancers worldwide and extracted age-standardised incidence and mortality in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 through the Global Burden of Disease Study. Two-stage modelling design was used. First, we applied growth mixture models (GMMs) to identify distinct trajectories for incidence and mortality of each cancer type. Next, we performed latent class analysis to detect cancer transition patterns based on the categorisation results from GMMs. Kruskal-Wallis H tests were conducted to evaluate associations between transition patterns and socioeconomic indicators. Three distinct patterns were identified as unfavourable, intermediate and favourable stages. Trajectories of lung and breast cancers had the strongest association with transition patterns among men and women. The unfavourable stage was characterised by rapid increases in lung, breast and colorectal cancers alongside stable or decreasing burden of gastric, cervical, oesophageal and liver cancers. In contrast, the favourable stage exhibited rapid declines in most cancers. The unfavourable stage was associated with lower sociodemographic index, health expenditure, gross domestic product per capita and higher maternal mortality ratio (P < .001 for all associations). Our findings suggest that unfavourable, intermediate and favourable transition patterns exist. Countries and territories in the unfavourable stage tend to be socioeconomically disadvantaged, and tailored intervention strategies are needed in these resource-limited settings.

Endoscopic Surveillance for Premalignant Esophageal Lesions: A Community-Based Multicenter, Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Mild and moderate dysplasia are major premalignant lesions of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC); however, evidence of the progression risk in patients with these conditions is extremely limited. We aimed to assess the incidence and risk factors for advanced neoplasia in patients with mild-moderate dysplasia. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included patients with mild-moderate dysplasia from 9 regions in rural China. These patients were identified from a community-based ESCC screening program conducted between 2010 and 2016 and were offered endoscopic surveillance until December 2021. We estimated the incidence of advanced esophageal neoplasia, including severe dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, or ESCC, and identified potential risk factors using the Cox regression model. RESULTS: The 1183 patients with mild-moderate dysplasia were followed up over a period of 6.95 years. During follow-up evaluation, 88 patients progressed to advanced neoplasia (7.44%), with an incidence rate of 10.44 per 1000 person-years. The median interval from the progression of mild-moderate dysplasia to advanced neoplasia was 2.39 years (interquartile range, 1.58-4.32 y). A total of 74.47% of patients with mild-moderate dysplasia experienced regression to nondysplasia, and 18.09% showed no lesion progression. Patients with mild-moderate dysplasia who had a family history of esophageal cancer and were age 55 years and older showed 97% higher advanced neoplasia yields than all patients with mild-moderate dysplasia. CONCLUSIONS: In a country with a high incidence of ESCC, patients with mild-moderate dysplasia showed an overall risk of advanced neoplasia progression of 1.04% per year. Patients with mild-moderate dysplasia would be recommended for endoscopic surveillance during the first 2 to 3 years.

Assessment of the compliance, influencing factors, and yielding results of liver cancer screening in a high-risk population: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The participation and results for liver cancer screening are rarely reported. The aim of this study was to determine the participation rates and factors affecting participation rates as well as to report the detection rate for liver cancer in an organized screening program. METHODS: The organized screening program for liver cancer was conducted in 12 rural sites. The risk of developing liver cancer was initially evaluated for each participant. High-risk individuals were offered α-fetoprotein measurement and ultrasonography examination. Potential risk factors associated with the participation rate were screened by fitted generalized linear mixed logistic regression models through reporting odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: A total of 358,662 eligible participants completed the basic surveys, and 54,745 were evaluated to be at high risk of liver cancer. Of these high-risk individuals, 40,543 accepted the screening services. Determinants of participation for screening behavior included older age, being female, being positive for hepatitis B surface antigen, having a family history of liver cancer, chronic depression, and low income. The detection rate for liver cancer was estimated to be 0.41% (95% CI, 0.35-0.48). CONCLUSIONS: This study reported several significant factors associated with the screening behaviors for liver cancer. LAY SUMMARY: Participation rate and results for liver cancer screening in rural areas are rarely reported. The determinants associated with adherence rates and early detection rate of liver cancer in an organized screening program for liver cancer were assessed. A possible positive correlation between the participation rates and the early detection rate was observed among attendees of screening. These new finds could be beneficial to increasing the participation rate of screening.

Cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer in high-risk areas of China: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Risk-stratified endoscopic screening (RSES) has been suggested to improve screening efficiency. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of RSES and identify the optimal risk-score thresholds for once in a lifetime esophageal cancer (EC) screening in high-risk areas of China. METHODS: From a healthcare system perspective, a Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of 13 RSES strategies (under different score thresholds for EC risk), universal endoscopic screening strategy, and no screening. Six cohorts of 100,000 participants with different screening ages (40-65 years) were followed up to age 77 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), that is, incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, was the primary outcome. RESULTS: Compared with no screening, as the score threshold was lowered, additionally gained QALYs increased, with 49 to 172 QALYs and 329 to 1147 QALYs gained from screening performed at 40 and 65 years, respectively. RSES in all age scenarios had ICERs less than the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and 11 RSES strategies with score thresholds of 3 to 13 had lower ICERs than universal endoscopic screening. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of the GDP per capita (U.S.$10,276/QALY), RSES at score thresholds of 8 or 9 and universal endoscopic screening were the most cost-effective strategies at ages <55 and ≥55 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: RSES is cost-effective, and score thresholds of 8 or 9 should be considered for screening ages <55 years. For individuals aged ≥55 years, universal endoscopic screening is the optimal strategy.

Selection of high-risk individuals for esophageal cancer screening: A prediction model of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on a multicenter screening cohort in rural China.

The mortality benefit of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening has been reported in several studies; however, the results of ESCC screening programs in China are suboptimal. Our study aimed to develop an ESCC risk prediction model to identify high-risk individuals for population-based esophageal cancer screening. In total, 86 745 participants enrolled in a population-based esophageal cancer screening program in rural China between 2007 and 2012 were included in the present study and followed up until December 31, 2015. Models for identifying individuals at risk of ESCC within 3 years were created using logistic regressions. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was determined to estimate the model's overall performance. A total of 298 individuals were diagnosed with ESCC within 3 years after baseline. The model of ESCC included the predictors of age, sex, family history of upper gastrointestinal cancer, smoking status, alarming symptoms of retrosternal pain, back pain or neck pain, consumption of salted food and fresh fruits and disease history of peptic ulcer or esophagitis (AUC of 0.81; 95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.83). Compared to the current prescreening strategy in our program, the cut-off value of 10 in the score-based model could result in 3.11% fewer individuals subjected to endoscopies and present higher sensitivity, slightly higher specificity and lower number needed to screen. This score-based risk prediction model of ESCC based on eight epidemiological risk factors could increase the efficiency of the esophageal cancer screening program in rural China.

An initial screening strategy based on epidemiologic information in esophageal cancer screening: a prospective evaluation in a community-based cancer screening cohort in rural China.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In China, regional organized esophageal cancer screening programs have been implemented since 2005. However, the implementation of these screening programs is still facing some urgent challenges, especially concerning identifying high-risk individuals. This study aimed to evaluate the risk stratification potential of the current initial assessment strategy used in a mass esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening program in China. METHODS: A total of 43,875 participants without a previous cancer history enrolled in a mass ESCC screening program in China from 2007 to 2010 who had initial assessment results were included in this study and were followed until December 31, 2015. Eight potential risk factors for ESCC were evaluated in the initial assessment strategy. A comprehensive evaluation of the association of the initial assessment results with ESCC risk was performed by propensity score matching and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 5.5 years, 272 individuals developed ESCC. The high-risk population assessed at baseline had a higher risk of ESCC than the non-high-risk population, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 3.11 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.33-4.14) after adjustment for sex, age, education level, income level, and body mass index. In addition, the initial assessment results of the high-risk population were significantly associated with the risk of all esophageal cancers (HR, 3.30; 95% CI, 2.51-4.33) and upper gastrointestinal cancers (HR, 3.03; 95% CI, 2.43-3.76). CONCLUSIONS: The initial screening tool in a mass ESCC screening program in China, consisting of 8 accessible variables in epidemiologic surveys, could be helpful for the selection of asymptomatic individuals for priority ESCC screening.

Long-term effects of fine particulate matter exposure on the progression of arterial stiffness.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have investigated the association of PM2.5 exposure with arterial stiffness measured by ankle-brachial index (ABI) and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV), of which conclusions are inconsistent. Moreover, limited evidence is available on the contributory role of PM2.5 exposure on the arterial stiffness index. METHODS: We used the population data from the Beijing Health Management Cohort and conducted a longitudinal analysis. The annual average concentration of PM2.5 for 35 air pollutant monitoring sites in Beijing from 2014 to 2018 was used to estimate individual exposure by different interpolation methods. Multivariate logistic regression and linear regression were conducted to assess the association of annual average PM2.5 concentration with the incidence of higher baPWV, the progression of ABI, and baPWV, respectively. RESULTS: The association between PM2.5 exposure and incidence of higher baPWV was not significant (OR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.82-1.50, P = 0.497). There was - 0.16% (95% CI: - 0.43-0.11%) decrease in ABI annually and 1.04% (95% CI: 0.72-1.37%) increase in baPWV annually with each increment of 10 µg/m3 average PM2.5 concentration. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with the progression of arterial stiffness in Beijing. This study suggests that improvement of air quality may help to prevent arterial stiffness.

Attributable deaths of liver cancer in China.

OBJECTIVE: There is little information about contributions of the well-known risk factors to the liver cancer burden. We conducted a comparative study to estimate the liver cancer burden attributable to major risk factors. METHODS: Liver cancer deaths for adults were estimated from 978 county-level surveillance points in China in 2014. Risk factors were identified from the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the World Cancer Research Fund International. Population attributable fraction (PAF) by age, sex, and province was calculated using multiple formulas. RESULTS: In total, 72.4% of liver cancer deaths could be attributable to the studied risk factors. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) was responsible for the largest fraction of liver cancer burden in both genders (PAF=55.6% in males, PAF=46.5% in females). PAFs for liver cancer burden attributable to smoking (15.7% vs. 4.8%), and alcohol drinking (10.3% vs. 1.6%) were significantly higher in males than in females. The burden of HBV-attributable deaths was the highest in Qinghai province. CONCLUSIONS: HBV still contributes to the majority of liver cancer burden than any other risk factors. Targeted preventive measures should be implemented based on the degree of contributions of risk factors to liver cancer deaths.

Association of cancer awareness levels with the risk of cancer in rural China: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of the effects of cancer prevention knowledge on the risk of developing cancer remains scarce. The objective of this study was to prospectively examine the association of cancer prevention awareness levels with cancer risk in a population-based cancer screening cohort in China. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 164,341 participants aged 40 to 69 years with no history of cancer and with available information on cancer prevention core knowledge in the Esophageal, Stomach, and Liver Cancer Screening Program. Participants were recruited from 18 rural regions across 4 provinces in China from 2007 to 2014 and were followed until December 31, 2015. The core knowledge of cancer prevention content included 9 items, with a total score ranging from 0 to 100. Cox proportional hazards regression models and restricted cubic spline analysis were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs. RESULTS: High cancer prevention knowledge scores were inversely associated with the overall risk of cancer (group 4 vs group 1: hazard ratio, 0.669; 95% CI, 0.576-0.776). Subgroup analysis showed that this inverse association could be observed in women, participants with lower educational or income levels, and those without a family history of cancer. Restricted cubic spline analysis exhibited a nonlinear (L-shaped) relation between cancer knowledge scores and cancer risk (overall P < .0001; nonlinear P = .0141). CONCLUSIONS: The main finding of this prospective study was that higher levels of cancer prevention awareness could be associated with a relative reduction in the risk of developing cancer.

Cancer burden and trends in China: A review and comparison with Japan and South Korea.

OBJECTIVE: To summarize the cancer burden and trends in China, compare the differences among China, Japan, and South Korea and discuss possible causes of the disparities. METHODS: Incidence and mortality data were extracted from the online cancer database including the GLOBOCAN 2018 and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Trend analysis was conducted using the join-point analysis, and annual percent changes were calculated. RESULTS: Cancers resulted in approximately 62.9 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in China in 2017. Lung cancer had the greatest contribution, followed by liver cancer, stomach cancer, and esophageal cancer. The trajectory of progress in the reduction of liver and stomach cancers was observed in China. However, China still faced a heavy burden of lung cancer and a growing burden of cancers related to westernized lifestyle such as colorectal cancer, while Japan and South Korea have achieved reductions in colorectal cancer and lung cancer, respectively. Besides, China had a lower age-standardized cancer incidence rate but higher cancer mortality and DALY rates than Japan and South Korea. CONCLUSIONS: China is in the cancer transition stage with a rising burden of colorectal, prostate, and breast cancers along with a heavy burden of lung and upper digestive tract cancers. Taking into consideration the effectiveness of screening and tobacco control in Japan and South Korea, improvement in the current tobacco control policy and cancer screening systems may contribute to cancer control in China.

Trends and risk factors of lung cancer in China.

China is faced with heavy burdens caused by lung cancer, which has climbed to the top of both cancer incidence and mortality spectrums. The age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality have shown a trend of gradual up-trends in the last decades, while the crude rates rise much quickly due to the aging of population. Although the improvement in health care has contributed to better survival of lung cancer, its prognosis is still challenging. Apart from the common risk factors such as tobacco use, air pollution, and occupational hazards, some specific factors like Chinese-style cooking also have posed great threats to human health. In light of such national conditions, specific interventions should be conducted to curb the burden of lung cancer including smoking cessation, improvement of air quality, early detection and effective treatment of lung cancer.

A study protocol of population-based cancer screening cohort study on esophageal, stomach and liver cancer in rural China.

OBJECTIVE: National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China collaborated with many ministries and commissions government and initiated a population-based cancer screening program in high-risk area of rural China, targeting three types of cancer that are most prevalent in these areas, including esophageal, stomach and liver cancer. This study protocol was reported to show the design and evaluate the effectiveness of cancer screening and appropriate screening strategies of three cancers in rural China. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A two-step design with cancer risk assessment based on questionnaire interview, Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) test strip and subsequent clinical intervention for high-risk populations was adopted free of charge at the local hospitals designated in the program. ETHIC AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College. The results will evaluate the effectiveness of cancer screening and appropriate screening strategies in rural China.

Classifying risk level of gastric cancer: Evaluation of questionnaire-based prediction model.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at evaluating the efficacy of the questionnaire-based prediction model in an independent prospective cohort. METHODS: A cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted in Changsha, Harbin, Luoshan, and Sheyang in eastern China in 2015-2017. A total of 182 villages/communities were regarded as clusters, and allocated to screening arm or control arm randomly. Face-to-face interview through a questionnaire interview, including of relevant risk factors of gastric cancer, was administered for each subject. Participants were further classified into high-risk or low-risk groups based on their exposure to risk factors. All participants were followed up until December 31, 2019. Cumulative incidence rates from gastric cancer between high-risk and low-risk groups were calculated and compared using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazard regression models were applied to estimate hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). RESULTS: Totally, 89,914 residents were recruited with a mean follow-up of 3.47 years. And 42,015 (46.73%) individuals were classified into high-risk group and 47,899 (53.27%) subjects were categorized into low-risk group. Gastric cancer was diagnosed in 131 participants, of which 91 were in high-risk group. Compared with the low-risk participants, high-risk individuals were more likely to develop gastric cancer (adjusted HR=2.15, 95% CI, 1.23-3.76). The sensitivity of the questionnaire-based model was estimated at 61.82% (95% CI, 47.71-74.28) in a general population. CONCLUSIONS: Our questionnaire-based model is effective at identifying high-risk individuals for gastric cancer.

Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Levels and Depression in Older Adults: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

OBJECTIVE: The association between serum vitamin D and risk of depression in older adults is controversial. We performed a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to examine the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations and the risk of depression in older population. METHODS: Studies published before February 2018 in the PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, PsycINFO, and EMBASE databases were systematically searched. Prospective cohort studies that examined the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and the risk of depression in older adults were included. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled hazard ratio and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals. A nonlinear dose-response association was examined using restricted cubic spline functions. RESULTS: Six prospective studies covering 16,287 older adults with 1,157 cases of depression were included and analyzed. The pooled hazard ratio of depression for per 10-ng/mL increment in serum 25(OH)D was 0.88 (95% confidence intervals: 0.78-0.99, I2 = 79.0%, p <0.001 for heterogeneity). A linear dose-response association between serum 25(OH)D concentrations and incident depression was observed (p = 0.96 for nonlinearity). CONCLUSION: Serum 25(OH)D concentration is negatively associated with the risk of depression in older adults. This meta-analysis suggests that increasing 25(OH)D levels may be a useful approach to reduce the risk of depression in older adults and highlights the need for further large-scale clinical studies.

Associations between ambient air pollution and mortality from all causes, pneumonia, and congenital heart diseases among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China: A population-based time series study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have mainly focused on the associations between particulate matters and infant mortality. However, evidence regarding the associations between gaseous pollutants and mortality among children aged <5 years remains sparse. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between ambient air pollution and death among children aged <5 years in Beijing, China, and explore the impact of age, gender and specific causes of death on these associations. METHODS: Concentrations of ambient air pollution and the number of deaths among children aged <5 years in Beijing from January 2014 to September 2016 were extracted from authoritative electronic databases. The associations were estimated for a single-month lag from the current month up to the previous 5 months (lag0-lag5) and moving averages of the current and previous months (lag01-lag05) using generalized additive Poisson regression (adjusted for time trends, season, meteorological variables and holidays). Subgroup analyses related to age, gender and specific diseases were performed. Two-pollutant models were used to evaluate the possible role of single pollutants. RESULTS: Sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) demonstrated the strongest associations with death among children aged <5 years at lag0, and the estimates decreased or even turned negative with the increasing lag periods. For an interquartile range increase in SO2, NO2 and CO at lag0, the odds ratios (OR) were 1.332 (95% CI 1.152-1.539), 1.383 (95% CI 1.113-1.718) and 1.273 (95% CI 1.028-1.575). However, CO lost significance after adjusting for SO2 and NO2, and PM2.5 gained significance (OR 1.548, 95% CI 1.061-2.258) after adjusting for PM10. The ORs for SO2 and NO2 remained the most stable across all two-pollutant models. The associations for children aged 1-5 years were stronger than those reported for infants at lag0 but lower at the other lag months. The pollutant associations were stronger for congenital heart disease-related death than overall and pneumonia-related death. We did not find significant differences in terms of gender. CONCLUSION: Exposure to air pollution may increase the incidence of death among children aged <5 years. SO2 and NO2 may be the most stable pollutants reflecting associations between air pollution and death, deserving further attention. Children with congenital heart diseases are more susceptible to air pollution. Therefore, it is urgent to implement the clean air targets established by WHO and reduce the exposure of children to air pollution.

Personalized starting age of gastric cancer screening based on individuals' risk profiles: a population-based prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The current recommended starting age for gastric cancer (GC) lacks unified guideline and individualized criteria. We aimed to determine risk-stratified starting age for GC screening in China based on individuals' risk profiles, and develop an online calculator for clinical application. METHODS: In this multi-center population-based prospective study, we divided participants enrolled during 2015-2017 (n = 59,771, aged 40-69) into screened and unscreened groups and observed them for primary endpoints-GC occurrence, all-cause and GC-specific deaths. The median follow-up was 6.07 years. To determine the reference starting age, the effectiveness of GC screening was assessed by age-groups after propensity-score-matching. Further, we categorized the calculated individual risk scores (using well-established risk factors) by quantiles. Subsequently, we used age-specific 10-year cumulative risk curves to estimate the risk-stratified starting age-when the individual's risk level matches reference starting age risk threshold. RESULTS: During follow-up, 475 GC cases, 182 GC deaths and 1,860 all-cause deaths occurred. All-cause and GC-specific mortality decreased among screened individuals aged ≥45 and 50-59 years, respectively. Thus, the average population (reference) starting age was set as 50 years. The 10-year cumulative risk of GC in average population aged 50 was 1.147%. We stratified the starting age using eight risk factors, and categorized participants as low-, medium-, and high-risk individuals, whose risk-stratified starting age was 58, 50, and 46, respectively. CONCLUSION: While high-risk individuals warrant 3-5 years earlier GC screening than average population (age 50), low-risk individuals can tolerate delayed screening. Our online, personalized starting-age calculator will help risk-adapted GC screening (https://web.consultech.com.cn/gastric/#/).

Real-World Practice of Gastric Cancer Prevention and Screening Calls for Practical Prediction Models.

INTRODUCTION: Some gastric cancer prediction models have been published. Still, the value of these models for application in real-world practice remains unclear. We aim to summarize and appraise modeling studies for gastric cancer risk prediction and identify potential barriers to real-world use. METHODS: This systematic review included studies that developed or validated gastric cancer prediction models in the general population. RESULTS: A total of 4,223 studies were screened. We included 18 development studies for diagnostic models, 10 for prognostic models, and 1 external validation study. Diagnostic models commonly included biomarkers, such as Helicobacter pylori infection indicator, pepsinogen, hormone, and microRNA. Age, sex, smoking, body mass index, and family history of gastric cancer were frequently used in prognostic models. Most of the models were not validated. Only 25% of models evaluated the calibration. All studies had a high risk of bias, but over half had acceptable applicability. Besides, most studies failed to clearly report the application scenarios of prediction models. DISCUSSION: Most gastric cancer prediction models showed common shortcomings in methods, validation, and reports. Model developers should further minimize the risk of bias, improve models' applicability, and report targeting application scenarios to promote real-world use.

Global trajectories of liver cancer burden from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2035.

BACKGROUND: Large disparities exist in liver cancer burden trends across countries but are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the global trajectories of liver cancer burden, explore the driving forces, and predict future trends. METHODS: Data on the liver cancer burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trajectories were defined using growth mixture models. Five major risk factors contributing to changes in the ASIR or ASMR and socioeconomic determinants were explored using the identified trajectories. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends through 2035. RESULTS: Three trajectories of liver cancer burden were identified: increasing, stable, and decreasing groups. Almost half of the American countries were classified in the decreasing group (48.6% for ASIR and ASMR), and the increasing group was the most common in the European region (ASIR, 49.1%; ASMR, 37.7%). In the decreasing group, the decrease of liver cancer due to hepatitis B contributed 63.4% and 60.4% of the total decreases in ASIR and ASMR, respectively. The increase of liver cancer due to alcohol use, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B contributed the most to the increase in the increasing group (30.8%, 31.1%, and 24.2% for ASIR; 33.7%, 30.2%, and 22.2% for ASMR, respectively). The increasing group was associated with a higher sociodemographic index, gross domestic product per capita, health expenditure per capita, and universal health coverage (all P <0.05). Significant variations in disease burden are predicted to continue through 2035, with a disproportionate burden in the decreasing group. CONCLUSION: Global disparities were observed in liver cancer burden trajectories. Hepatitis B, alcohol use, and hepatitis C were identified as driving forces in different regions.