RESUMEN
The literature on the Dust Bowl conveys the impression of widespread exodus from the Great Plains. But farm populations were often more resilient than the iconic photographs of the era suggest. While recent studies highlight that tenacity, less is known about the process of recovery and postwar growth. This paper offers a window on both. The evidence discussed here survives as a legacy of a long-lived, state-run agricultural statistics program in Kansas. The State Board of Agriculture conducted annual household surveys of farms between 1873 and 1981. Linked together over time, these farm-level surveys offer a detailed record of the residential and land-use histories of three communities, and they begin to illustrate how farm households met the challenges of the drought years and adjusted to the new agriculture in the post-World War II era.
RESUMEN
Land-use change in the U.S. Great Plains since agricultural settlement in the second half of the nineteenth century has been well documented. While aggregate historical trends are easily tracked, the decision-making of individual farmers is difficult to reconstruct. We use an agent-based model to tell the history of the settlement of the West by simulating farm-level agricultural decision making based on historical data about prices, yields, farming costs, and environmental conditions. The empirical setting for the model is the period between 1875 and 1940 in two townships in Kansas, one in the shortgrass region and the other in the mixed grass region. Annual historical data on yields and prices determine profitability of various land uses and thereby inform decision-making, in conjunction with the farmer's previous experience and randomly assigned levels of risk aversion. Results illustrating the level of agreement between model output and unique and detailed household-level records of historical land use and farm size suggest that economic behavior and natural endowments account for land change processes to some degree, but are incomplete. Discrepancies are examined to identify missing processes through model experiments, in which we adjust input and output prices, crop yields, agent memory, and risk aversion. These analyses demonstrate how agent-based modeling can be a useful laboratory for thinking about social and economic behavior in the past.
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This paper examines drivers of land-cover change in the U.S. Great Plains in the last half of the twentieth century. Its central aim is to evaluate the dynamics of grassland preservation and conversion, across the region, and to identify areas of grassland that were never plowed during the period. The research compares land-cover data from 400 sample areas, selected from and nested within 50 counties, to aggregate data from the agricultural and population censuses. The spatially explicit land-cover data were interpreted from aerial photographs taken at three time points (1950s, 1970s and 2000s). Sample areas were chosen using a stratified random design based on the Public Land Survey grid with in the target counties, in several clusters across the region. We modeled the sequences and magnitudes of changes in the interpreted air photo data in a multi-level panel model that included soil quality and slope of sample areas and agricultural activities and employment reported in the U.S. Censuses of Agriculture and Population. We conclude that land retirement programs and production subsidies have worked at cross purposes, destabilizing micro-level patterns of land use in recent decades, increasing levels of switching between cropland and grassland and reducing the size of remaining areas of native grassland in the U.S. Great Plains.
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A time series of 230 intra- and inter-annual Landsat Thematic Mapper images was used to identify land that was ever cropped during the years 1984 through 2010 for a five county region in southwestern Kansas. Annual maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image composites (NDVI(ann-max)) were used to evaluate the inter-annual dynamics of cropped and non-cropped land. Three feature images were derived from the 27-year NDVI(ann-max) image time series and used in the classification: 1) maximum NDVI value that occurred over the entire 27 year time span (NDVI(max)), 2) standard deviation of the annual maximum NDVI values for all years (NDVI(sd)), and 3) standard deviation of the annual maximum NDVI values for years 1984-1986 (NDVI(sd84-86)) to improve Conservation Reserve Program land discrimination.Results of the classification were compared to three reference data sets: County-level USDA Census records (1982-2007) and two digital land cover maps (Kansas 2005 and USGS Trends Program maps (1986-2000)). Area of ever-cropped land for the five counties was on average 11.8 % higher than the area estimated from Census records. Overall agreement between the ever-cropped land map and the 2005 Kansas map was 91.9% and 97.2% for the Trends maps. Converting the intra-annual Landsat data set to a single annual maximum NDVI image composite considerably reduced the data set size, eliminated clouds and cloud-shadow affects, yet maintained information important for discriminating cropped land. Our results suggest that Landsat annual maximum NDVI image composites will be useful for characterizing land use and land cover change for many applications.
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This article reconstructs land cover patterns in Depressionera Kansas from historical aerial photos and compares the locations of crop fields to areas of submarginal land identified in modern digital soil survey maps. The analysis argues that New Deal land retirement programs overestimated the degree of bad land use because they lacked the basic science to make comprehensive assessments. The findings demonstrate that the misuse of land unfit for cultivation was relatively rare across the central plains but especially in the Dust Bowl region.
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This paper analyzes in detail the role of environmental and economic shocks in the migration of the 1930s. The 1940 U.S. Census of Population asked every inhabitant where they lived five years earlier, a unique source for understanding migration flows and networks. Earlier research documented migrant origins and destinations, but we will show how short term and annual weather conditions at sending locations in the 1930s explain those flows, and how they operated through agricultural success. Beyond demographic data, we use data about temperature and precipitation, plus data about agricultural production from the agricultural census. The widely known migration literature for the 1930s describes an era of relatively low migration, with much of the migration that did occur outward from the Dust Bowl region and the cotton South. Our work about the complete U.S. will provide a fuller examination of migration in this socially and economically important era.
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Farms stood at an ecological frontier in the 1930s. With new and better agricultural machinery, more farms than ever before made the leap to thousand acre enterprises. But did they abandon mixed husbandry in the process? This article explores the origins of the modern relationship between scale and diversity using a new sample of Kansas farms. In 25 townships across the state, between 1875 and 1940, the evidence demonstrates that relatively few plains farms were agents of early monoculture. Rather than a process driven by single-crop farming, settlement was shaped by farms that grew more diverse with each generation.