Evaluation of Statistical Approaches in Developing a Predictive Model of Severe COVID-19 during Early Phase of Pandemic with Limited Data Resources.

As evidence of risk factors for severe cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was uncertain in early phases of the pandemic, the development of an efficient predictive model for severe cases to triage high-risk individuals represented an urgent yet challenging issue. It is crucial to select appropriate statistical models when available data and evidence are limited. This study was conducted to assess the accuracy of different statistical models in predicting severe cases using demographic data from patients with COVID-19 prior to the emergence of consequential variants. We analyzed data from 929 consecutive patients diagnosed with COVID-19 prior to March 2021, including their age, sex, body mass index, and past medical histories, and compared areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) between different statistical models. The random forest (RF) model, deep learning (DL) models with not too many neurons, and naïve Bayes model exhibited AUC measures of > 0.70 with the validation datasets. The naïve Bayes model performed the best with the AUC measures of > 0.80. The accuracies in RF were more robust with narrower distribution of AUC measures compared to those in DL. The benefit of performing feature selection with a training dataset before building models was seen in some models, but not in all models. In summary, the naïve Bayes and RF models exhibited ideal predictive performance even with limited available data. The benefit of performing feature selection before building models with limited data resources depended on machine learning methods and parameters.

Predictors for the Development of Hypoxia or Prolonged Acute Symptoms among Non-Hospitalized Mild-to-Moderate Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic remains a global public health concern. The clinical course and risk of developing severe illness among patients with COVID-19 who are at low-risk of severe COVID-19 remain uncertain. This retrospective cohort study from an isolation facility for low-risk COVID-19 patients in Japan evaluated the potential risks for severe disease with hypoxia (SpO2 ≤ 93%) or experiencing prolonged isolation period longer than 14 days with persistent acute symptoms. The study was performed before the spread of the alpha variant in the country and before the start of a nationwide mass vaccination campaign against COVID-19. Among the 929 participants with reliable outcome data regarding the development of hypoxia, 63 (6.8%) developed severe disease with hypoxia during their stays at the facility. Higher age [adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-1.10] and male sex (aOR, 4.70; 95% CI, 2.39-9.22) were associated with this outcome. As for the experience of prolonged isolation period, higher age (aOR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04), atopic diseases (aOR, 1.69, 95% CI, 1.09-2.64), presence of cough at onset (aOR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.09-2.48), and prescription of oral antibiotics before positive test results for COVID-19 (aOR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.33-4.22) were associated with this outcome. In summary, 5-10% of low-risk COVID-19 patients later develop hypoxia. Older age and male sex were associated with both the development of hypoxia and prolonged acute symptoms. The unnecessary prescription of antibiotics before COVID-19 diagnosis may prolong COVID-19 symptoms.

Refractory Chest Pain in Mild to Moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019 Successfully Treated with Saikanto, a Japanese Traditional Medicine.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes a variety of pain symptoms in the acute phase. Severe chest pain suddenly occurs even without abnormalities on examination and is sometimes refractory to analgesics. Such pain is a clinical concern in care facilities with limited resources, and this is the first report on the use of saikanto for its treatment. In Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, COVID-19 patients with mild symptoms were admitted to a hotel that operated as an isolation facility, and their symptoms were observed. In this article, we report four cases in which chest pain comorbid with mild to moderate COVID-19 was successfully treated with saikanto, a traditional Japanese (Kampo) medicine. The patients presented with chest pain and underwent medical examination at the facility. Two patients had severe chest pain refractory to acetaminophen. Critical cardiopulmonary diseases were ruled out in all the patients, and three patients had features of pneumonia on chest radiograph. Medications, including saikanto, were administered to the patients. The patients' chest pain and other symptoms improved 1-4 days after the administration of saikanto, and they left the care facility without hospitalization. The cause of the chest pain experienced by these patients is unclear, but we speculate that it could be minimal pleural inflammation or neuropathy. Previous pharmacological studies have suggested anti-inflammatory and analgesic properties of the crude drugs that constitute saikanto. This case report suggests that saikanto could be a treatment option for chest pain refractory to analgesics in patients with mild to moderate COVID-19.

Response to Glucocorticoid Therapy in Patients with Mild to Moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019 at a Japanese Care Facility.

The fifth wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by delta variant infection depleted medical resources, and the Japanese government announced glucocorticoid use for outpatients. An appropriate outpatient-glucocorticoid treatment for COVID-19 has not been established; therefore, we created treatment manuals with indications for glucocorticoid administration in a care facility adequately equipped to manage patients with mild to moderate COVID-19. Thirty-eight patients (24 males, 14 females; mean age 40.5 ± 11.8 years) were treated with glucocorticoids from August 1 to October 1, 2021 [COVID-19 staging, mild (n = 1), moderate I (n = 19), and moderate II (n = 18)]. Patients were treated with 6.6 mg/day d.i.v. or 6 mg/day p.o. dexamethasone, or 20-30 mg/day p.o. prednisolone. The median (25th-75th percentile) number of days from the date of onset to glucocorticoid administration was 8.0 days (7.0-11.25 days). While 24 patients were hospitalized, the condition of 14 improved without hospitalization. The median number of days from glucocorticoid administration to hospitalization was 1.0 day (range, 1.0-1.0 day). In the non-hospitalized patients, the median number of days of glucocorticoid administration was 5.0 days (5.0-5.25 days). The mean number of days from glucocorticoid administration to discharge from the care facility for non-hospitalized patients was 8.4 ± 3.3 days. The adverse reactions among non-hospitalized patients included insomnia (n = 1) and mild liver dysfunction (n = 3). The present method of glucocorticoid administration can be safely used for patients with COVID-19 in care facilities.

Treatment of COVID-19-Related Olfactory Disorder Promoted by Kakkontokasenkyushin'i: A Case Series.

Olfactory disorders are one of the characteristic symptoms of the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), which causes infection and inflammation of the upper and lower respiratory tract. To our knowledge, there are no treatments for COVID-19-related olfactory disorder. Here, we report five olfactory disorder cases in COVID-19, treated using the Japanese traditional (Kampo) medicine, kakkontokasenkyushin'i. We treated five patients with mild COVID-19 at an isolation facility using Kampo medicine, depending on their symptoms. Patients with the olfactory disorder presented with a blocked nose, nasal discharge or taste impairment. Physical examination using Kampo medicine showed similar findings, such as a red tongue with red spots and sublingual vein congestion, which presented as blood stasis and inflammation; thus, we prescribed the Kampo medicine, kakkontokasenkyushin'i. After administration, the numeric rating scale scores of the smell impairment improved within 3 days from 9 to 3 in case 1, from 10 to 0 in case 2, from 9 to 0 in case 3, from 5 to 0 in case 4, and from 9 to 0 within 5 days in case 5. Following the treatment, other common cold symptoms were also alleviated. Kakkontokasenkyushin'i can be used for treating nasal congestion, rhinitis, and inflammation in the nasal mucosa. The olfactory disorder in COVID-19 has been reportedly associated with inflammation and congestion, especially in the olfactory bulb and olfactory cleft. Kakkontokasenkyushin'i may be one of the treatment alternatives for the olfactory disorder with rhinitis in patients with COVID-19.

[Two cases of fulminant myocarditis with mesenteric ischemia].

Fulminant myocarditis (FM) can lead to a refractory cardiogenic shock and multiple organ failure. Mechanical circulatory support (MCS) is not infrequency required to salvage patients in a profound shock. Advanced technology in MCS such as a temporary ventricular assist device can yield improved early outcome. However, incessant mesenteric ischemia remains a challenge to be resolved even with MCS. We here-in report 2 cases of FM associated with mesenteric ischemia that was extremely difficult to diagnose and treat. Therapeutic strategy for FM with mesenteric ischemia is discussed.

Restoration of clean water supply and toilet hygiene reduces infectious diseases in post-disaster evacuation shelters: A multicenter observational study.

After a massive disaster, many residents in affected areas are forced to temporarily stay in evacuation shelters. The exact impact of the state of resource supply and infrastructure in evacuation shelters on the health status of evacuees has not been sufficiently studied. Two weeks after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE), comprehensive surveillance related to the health status and hygiene level was performed for all evacuation shelters (328 shelters with 46,480 evacuees at the peak) in one of the most devastating medical zones after the tsunami hit the area (Ishinomaki City). The joint relief team regularly visited all evacuation shelters across the area to assess the situation of resource supply levels, infrastructural damage, rapid need of resources, and the health status of the evacuees. In this cross-sectional observational study, we evaluated the relationship between the resource supply levels and health status among evacuees in two time periods (days 14-19 and 20-25). Among the evaluated vital resources, clean tap water supply was among the most disrupted by the disaster, and was not fully restored in most shelters during the assessment period. The cross-sectional relationship between resource supplies and morbidity was inconsistent between the two assessment periods, reflecting the multifactorial nature of health status in evacuation shelters. The clean tap water supply level at the first assessment showed a strong negative correlation with the subsequent prevalence of respiratory or gastrointestinal infectious conditions at the second assessment. Restorations in the clean tap water supply and toilet hygiene correlated each other, and both correlated with a decrease in the prevalence of gastrointestinal infectious conditions. In conclusion, disrupted clean tap water supply and inadequate toilet hygiene after a massive disaster would jointly harm the health status of those in shelters. Prompt assessments using quick visual assessment and restorations of these key resources have validity with suppressed environmental health risks among evacuees.