Prolonged inflammation in patients hospitalized for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) resolves 2 years after infection.

Long-term complications from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are concerning, as survivors can develop subclinical multiorgan dysfunction. It is unknown if such complications are due to prolonged inflammation, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination may reduce sequela. We conducted a prospective longitudinal study on hospitalized patients over 24 months. Clinical symptoms were collected by self-reporting during follow-up, along with blood samples for quantification of inflammatory markers and immune cell frequencies. All patients were given one dose of mRNA vaccine at 12-16 months. Their immune profiles at 12 and 24 months were compared. Approximately 37% and 39% of our patients reported post-COVID-19 symptoms at 12 and 24 months, respectively. The proportion of symptomatic patients with more than one symptom decreased from 69% at 12 months to 56% at 24 months. Longitudinal cytokine profiling revealed a cluster of individuals with persistently high inflammatory cytokine levels 12 months after infection. Patients with prolonged inflammation showed elevated terminally differentiated memory T cells in their blood; 54% had symptoms at 12 months. The majority of inflammatory markers and dysregulated immune cells in vaccinated patients recovered to a healthy baseline at 24 months, even though symptoms persisted. Post-COVID-19 symptoms can linger for 2 years after the initial infection and are associated with prolonged inflammation. Prolonged inflammation in hospitalized patients resolves after 2 years. We define a set of analytes associated with persistent inflammation and presence of symptoms, which could be useful biomarkers for identifying and monitoring high-risk survivors.

Viral Dynamics and Immune Correlates of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Severity.

BACKGROUND: Key knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of viral dynamics and immune response of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. METHODS: We evaluated these characteristics and established their association with clinical severity in a prospective observational cohort study of 100 patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (mean age, 46 years; 56% male; 38% with comorbidities). Respiratory samples (n = 74) were collected for viral culture, serum samples for measurement of IgM/IgG levels (n = 30), and plasma samples for levels of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines (n = 81). Disease severity was correlated with results from viral culture, serologic testing, and immune markers. RESULTS: Fifty-seven (57%) patients developed viral pneumonia, of whom 20 (20%) required supplemental oxygen, including 12 (12%) with invasive mechanical ventilation. Viral culture from respiratory samples was positive for 19 of 74 patients (26%). No virus was isolated when the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) value was >30 or >14 days after symptom onset. Seroconversion occurred at a median (IQR) of 12.5 (9-18) days for IgM and 15.0 (12-20) days for IgG; 54/62 patients (87.1%) sampled at day 14 or later seroconverted. Severe infections were associated with earlier seroconversion and higher peak IgM and IgG levels. Levels of IP-10, HGF, IL-6, MCP-1, MIP-1α, IL-12p70, IL-18, VEGF-A, PDGF-BB, and IL-1RA significantly correlated with disease severity. CONCLUSIONS: We found virus viability was associated with lower PCR Ct value in early illness. A stronger antibody response was associated with disease severity. The overactive proinflammatory immune signatures offer targets for host-directed immunotherapy, which should be evaluated in randomized controlled trials.

Effects of a major deletion in the SARS-CoV-2 genome on the severity of infection and the inflammatory response: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with a 382-nucleotide deletion (∆382) in the open reading frame 8 (ORF8) region of the genome have been detected in Singapore and other countries. We investigated the effect of this deletion on the clinical features of infection. METHODS: We retrospectively identified patients who had been screened for the ∆382 variant and recruited to the PROTECT study-a prospective observational cohort study conducted at seven public hospitals in Singapore. We collected clinical, laboratory, and radiological data from patients' electronic medical records and serial blood and respiratory samples taken during hospitalisation and after discharge. Individuals infected with the ∆382 variant were compared with those infected with wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Exact logistic regression was used to examine the association between the infection groups and the development of hypoxia requiring supplemental oxygen (an indicator of severe COVID-19, the primary endpoint). Follow-up for the study's primary endpoint is completed. FINDINGS: Between Jan 22 and March 21, 2020, 278 patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were screened for the ∆382 deletion and 131 were enrolled onto the study, of whom 92 (70%) were infected with the wild-type virus, ten (8%) had a mix of wild-type and ∆382-variant viruses, and 29 (22%) had only the ∆382 variant. Development of hypoxia requiring supplemental oxygen was less frequent in the ∆382 variant group (0 [0%] of 29 patients) than in the wild-type only group (26 [28%] of 92; absolute difference 28% [95% CI 14-28]). After adjusting for age and presence of comorbidities, infection with the ∆382 variant only was associated with lower odds of developing hypoxia requiring supplemental oxygen (adjusted odds ratio 0·07 [95% CI 0·00-0·48]) compared with infection with wild-type virus only. INTERPRETATION: The ∆382 variant of SARS-CoV-2 seems to be associated with a milder infection. The observed clinical effects of deletions in ORF8 could have implications for the development of treatments and vaccines. FUNDING: National Medical Research Council Singapore.

Epidemiologic Features and Clinical Course of Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore.

Importance: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and has spread globally with sustained human-to-human transmission outside China. Objective: To report the initial experience in Singapore with the epidemiologic investigation of this outbreak, clinical features, and management. Design, Setting, and Participants: Descriptive case series of the first 18 patients diagnosed with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection at 4 hospitals in Singapore from January 23 to February 3, 2020; final follow-up date was February 25, 2020. Exposures: Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Clinical, laboratory, and radiologic data were collected, including PCR cycle threshold values from nasopharyngeal swabs and viral shedding in blood, urine, and stool. Clinical course was summarized, including requirement for supplemental oxygen and intensive care and use of empirical treatment with lopinavir-ritonavir. Results: Among the 18 hospitalized patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (median age, 47 years; 9 [50%] women), clinical presentation was an upper respiratory tract infection in 12 (67%), and viral shedding from the nasopharynx was prolonged for 7 days or longer among 15 (83%). Six individuals (33%) required supplemental oxygen; of these, 2 required intensive care. There were no deaths. Virus was detectable in the stool (4/8 [50%]) and blood (1/12 [8%]) by PCR but not in urine. Five individuals requiring supplemental oxygen were treated with lopinavir-ritonavir. For 3 of the 5 patients, fever resolved and supplemental oxygen requirement was reduced within 3 days, whereas 2 deteriorated with progressive respiratory failure. Four of the 5 patients treated with lopinavir-ritonavir developed nausea, vomiting, and/or diarrhea, and 3 developed abnormal liver function test results. Conclusions and Relevance: Among the first 18 patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Singapore, clinical presentation was frequently a mild respiratory tract infection. Some patients required supplemental oxygen and had variable clinical outcomes following treatment with an antiretroviral agent.

Longitudinal single cell atlas identifies complex temporal relationship between type I interferon response and COVID-19 severity.

Due to the paucity of longitudinal molecular studies of COVID-19, particularly those covering the early stages of infection (Days 1-8 symptom onset), our understanding of host response over the disease course is limited. We perform longitudinal single cell RNA-seq on 286 blood samples from 108 age- and sex-matched COVID-19 patients, including 73 with early samples. We examine discrete cell subtypes and continuous cell states longitudinally, and we identify upregulation of type I IFN-stimulated genes (ISGs) as the predominant early signature of subsequent worsening of symptoms, which we validate in an independent cohort and corroborate by plasma markers. However, ISG expression is dynamic in progressors, spiking early and then rapidly receding to the level of severity-matched non-progressors. In contrast, cross-sectional analysis shows that ISG expression is deficient and IFN suppressors such as SOCS3 are upregulated in severe and critical COVID-19. We validate the latter in four independent cohorts, and SOCS3 inhibition reduces SARS-CoV-2 replication in vitro. In summary, we identify complexity in type I IFN response to COVID-19, as well as a potential avenue for host-directed therapy.

Rostered Routine Testing: A Necessary Evil?

We report our institution's experience of detecting a staff member who was infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 while he was asymptomatic, as part of a rostered routine testing program, and how the institution was able to undertake measures to curb the spread, hence reducing the impact on the daily operations of our institution.

Early oral stepdown antibiotic therapy versus continuing intravenous therapy for uncomplicated Gram-negative bacteraemia (the INVEST trial): study protocol for a multicentre, randomised controlled, open-label, phase III, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of Gram-negative bacteraemia is rising globally and remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. The majority of patients with Gram-negative bacteraemia initially receive intravenous (IV) antibiotic therapy. However, it remains unclear whether patients can step down to oral antibiotics after appropriate clinical response has been observed without compromising outcomes. Compared with IV therapy, oral therapy eliminates the risk of catheter-associated adverse events, enhances patient quality of life and reduces healthcare costs. As current management of Gram-negative bacteraemia entails a duration of IV therapy with limited evidence to guide oral conversion, we aim to evaluate the clinical efficacy and economic impact of early stepdown to oral antibiotics. METHODS: This is an international, multicentre, randomised controlled, open-label, phase III, non-inferiority trial. To be eligible, adult participants must be clinically stable / non-critically ill inpatients with uncomplicated Gram-negative bacteraemia. Randomisation to the intervention or standard arms will be performed with 1:1 allocation ratio. Participants randomised to the intervention arm (within 72 h from index blood culture collection) will be immediately switched to an oral fluoroquinolone or trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. Participants randomised to the standard arm will continue to receive IV therapy for at least 24 h post-randomisation before clinical re-assessment and decision-making by the treating doctor. The recommended treatment duration is 7 days of active antibiotics (including empiric therapy), although treatment regimen may be longer than 7 days if clinically indicated. Primary outcome is 30-day all-cause mortality, and the key secondary outcome is health economic evaluation, including estimation of total healthcare cost as well as assessment of patient quality of life and number of quality-adjusted life years saved. Assuming a 30-day mortality of 8% in the standard and intervention arms, with 6% non-inferiority margin, the target sample size is 720 participants which provides 80% power with a one-sided 0.025 α-level after adjustment for 5% drop-out. DISCUSSION: A finding of non-inferiority in efficacy of oral fluoroquinolones or trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole versus IV standard of care antibiotics may hypothetically translate to wider adoption of a more cost-effective treatment strategy with better quality of life outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05199324 . Registered 20 January 2022.

Differential escape of neutralizing antibodies by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and pre-emergent sarbecoviruses.

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 lineage, Omicron variant, was first detected in November 2021 and carries 32 amino acid mutations in the spike protein (15 in RBD) and exhibits significant escape of neutralizing antibodies targeting the parental SARS-CoV-2 virus. Here, we performed a high-resolution multiplex (16-plex) surrogate virus neutralization assay covering all major SARS-CoV-2 variants and pre-emergent ACE2-binding sarbecoviruses against 20 different human serum panels from infected, vaccinated and hybrid immune individuals which had vaccine-breakthrough infections or infection followed by vaccination. Among all sarbecoviruses tested, we observed 1.1 to 4.7-, 2.3 to 10.3- and 0.7 to 33.3-fold reduction in neutralization activities to SARS-CoV-2 Beta, Omicron and SARS-CoV-1, respectively. Among the SARS-CoV-2 related sarbecoviruses, it is found that the genetically more distant bat RaTG13 and pangolin GX-P5L sarbecoviruses had less neutralization escape than Omicron. Our data suggest that the SARS-CoV-2 variants emerged from the changed immune landscape of human populations are more potent in escaping neutralizing antibodies, from infection or vaccination, than pre-emergent sarbecoviruses naturally evolved in animal populations with no or less immune selection pressure.

Conserved longitudinal alterations of anti-S-protein IgG subclasses in disease progression in initial ancestral Wuhan and vaccine breakthrough Delta infections.

Introduction: COVID-19 has a wide disease spectrum ranging from asymptomatic to severe. While humoral immune responses are critical in preventing infection, the immune mechanisms leading to severe disease, and the identification of biomarkers of disease progression and/or resolution of the infection remains to be determined. Methods: Plasma samples were obtained from infections during the initial wave of ancestral wildtype SARS-CoV-2 and from vaccine breakthrough infections during the wave of Delta variant, up to six months post infection. The spike-specific antibody profiles were compared across different severity groups and timepoints. Results: We found an association between spike-specific IgM, IgA and IgG and disease severity in unvaccinated infected individuals. In addition to strong IgG1 and IgG3 response, patients with severe disease develop a robust IgG2 and IgG4 response. A comparison of the ratio of IgG1 and IgG3 to IgG2 and IgG4 showed that disease progression is associated with a smaller ratio in both the initial wave of WT and the vaccine breakthrough Delta infections. Time-course analysis revealed that smaller (IgG1 and IgG3)/(IgG2 and IgG4) ratio is associated with disease progression, while the reverse associates with clinical recovery. Discussion: While each IgG subclass is associated with disease severity, the balance within the four IgG subclasses may affect disease outcome. Acute disease progression or infection resolution is associated with a specific immunological phenotype that is conserved in both the initial wave of WT and the vaccine breakthrough Delta infections.

Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infections: a multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Highly effective vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been developed but variants of concerns are worrisome, especially B.1.617.2 (Delta) which has rapidly spread across the world. We aim to study if vaccination alters virological and serological kinetics in breakthrough infections. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study of patients in Singapore who had received a licensed mRNA vaccine and been admitted to hospital with B.1.617.2 SARS-CoV-2 infection. We compared clinical features, virological and serological kinetics (anti-nucleocapsid, anti-spike and surrogate virus neutralization titres) between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. RESULTS: Out of 218 individuals with B.1.617.2 infection, 84 received an mRNA vaccine of which 71 were fully vaccinated, 130 were unvaccinated and four received a non-mRNA vaccine. Despite significantly older age in the vaccine breakthrough group, only 2.8% (2/71) developed severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen supplementation compared with 53.1% (69/130) in the unvaccinated group (p < 0.001). Odds of severe COVID-19 following vaccination were significantly lower (adjusted odds ratio 0.07 95% CI 0.015-0.335, p 0.001). PCR cycle threshold values were similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals. Early, robust boosting of anti-spike protein antibodies was observed in vaccinated patients; however, these titres were significantly lower against B.1.617.2 than the wildtype vaccine strain. DISCUSSION: The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Decreased memory B cell frequencies in COVID-19 delta variant vaccine breakthrough infection.

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant is capable of infecting vaccinated persons. An open question remains as to whether deficiencies in specific vaccine-elicited immune responses result in susceptibility to vaccine breakthrough infection. We investigated 55 vaccine breakthrough infection cases (mostly Delta) in Singapore, comparing them against 86 vaccinated close contacts who did not contract infection. Vaccine breakthrough cases showed lower memory B cell frequencies against SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD). Compared to plasma antibodies, antibodies secreted by memory B cells retained a higher fraction of neutralizing properties against the Delta variant. Inflammatory cytokines including IL-1ß and TNF were lower in vaccine breakthrough infections than primary infection of similar disease severity, underscoring the usefulness of vaccination in preventing inflammation. This report highlights the importance of memory B cells against vaccine breakthrough and suggests that lower memory B cell levels may be a correlate of risk for Delta vaccine breakthrough infection.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emerged under immune selection.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529 lineage) escapes antibodies that neutralize the ancestral virus. We tested human serum panels from participants with differing infection and vaccination status using a multiplex surrogate virus neutralization assay targeting 20 sarbecoviruses. We found that bat and pangolin sarbecoviruses showed significantly less neutralization escape than the Omicron variant. We propose that SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged under immune selection pressure and are evolving differently from animal sarbecoviruses.

Differential Cytokine Responses in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients Limit Efficacy of Remdesivir.

A significant proportion of COVID-19 patients will progress to critical illness requiring invasive mechanical ventilation. This accentuates the need for a therapy that can reduce the severity of COVID-19. Clinical trials have shown the effectiveness of remdesivir in shortening recovery time and decreasing progression to respiratory failure and mechanical ventilation. However, some studies have highlighted its lack of efficacy in patients on high-flow oxygen and mechanical ventilation. This study uncovers some underlying immune response differences between responders and non-responders to remdesivir treatment. Immunological analyses revealed an upregulation of tissue repair factors BDNF, PDGF-BB and PIGF-1, as well as an increase in ratio of Th2-associated cytokine IL-4 to Th1-associated cytokine IFN-γ. Serological profiling of IgG subclasses corroborated this observation, with significantly higher magnitude of increase in Th2-associated IgG2 and IgG4 responses. These findings help to identify the mechanisms of immune regulation accompanying successful remdesivir treatment in severe COVID-19 patients.

Resistance of SARS-CoV-2 variants to neutralization by convalescent plasma from early COVID-19 outbreak in Singapore.

The rapid spreading of SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.7 originated from the United Kingdom and B.1.351 from South Africa has contributed to the second wave of COVID-19 cases in the respective countries and also around the world. In this study, we employed advanced biochemical and virological methodologies to evaluate the impact of Spike mutations of these strains on the degree of protection afforded by humoral immune responses following natural infection of the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain during the early stages of the outbreak. We found that antibody-mediated neutralization activity was partially reduced for B.1.1.7 variant and significantly attenuated for the B.1.351 strain. We also found that mutations outside the receptor-binding domain (RBD) can strongly influence antibody binding and neutralization, cautioning the use of solely RBD mutations in evaluating vaccine efficacy. These findings highlight an urgent need to develop new SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that are not based exclusively on the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 Spike gene sequence.

Radiographic features of COVID-19 based on an initial cohort of 96 patients in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Chest radiographs (CXRs) are widely used for the screening and management of COVID-19. This article describes the radiographic features of COVID-19 based on an initial national cohort of patients. METHODS: This is a retrospective review of swab-positive patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to four different hospitals in Singapore between 22 January and 9 March 2020. Initial and follow-up CXRs were reviewed by three experienced radiologists to identify the predominant pattern and distribution of lung parenchymal abnormalities. RESULTS: In total, 347 CXRs of 96 patients were reviewed. Initial CXRs were abnormal in 41 (42.7%) out of 96 patients. The mean time from onset of symptoms to CXR abnormality was 5.3 ± 4.7 days. The predominant pattern of lung abnormality was ground-glass opacity on initial CXRs (51.2%) and consolidation on follow-up CXRs (51.0%). Multifocal bilateral abnormalities in mixed central and peripheral distribution were observed in 63.4% and 59.2% of abnormal initial and follow-up CXRs, respectively. The lower zones were involved in 90.2% of initial CXRs and 93.9% of follow-up CXRs. CONCLUSION: In a cohort of swab-positive patients, including those identified from contact tracing, we found a lower incidence of CXR abnormalities than was previously reported. The most common pattern was ground-glass opacity or consolidation, but mixed central and peripheral involvement was more common than peripheral involvement alone.

Convalescent COVID-19 patients are susceptible to endothelial dysfunction due to persistent immune activation.

Numerous reports of vascular events after an initial recovery from COVID-19 form our impetus to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on vascular health of recovered patients. We found elevated levels of circulating endothelial cells (CECs), a biomarker of vascular injury, in COVID-19 convalescents compared to healthy controls. In particular, those with pre-existing conditions (e.g., hypertension, diabetes) had more pronounced endothelial activation hallmarks than non-COVID-19 patients with matched cardiovascular risk. Several proinflammatory and activated T lymphocyte-associated cytokines sustained from acute infection to recovery phase, which correlated positively with CEC measures, implicating cytokine-driven endothelial dysfunction. Notably, we found higher frequency of effector T cells in our COVID-19 convalescents compared to healthy controls. The activation markers detected on CECs mapped to counter receptors found primarily on cytotoxic CD8+ T cells, raising the possibility of cytotoxic effector cells targeting activated endothelial cells. Clinical trials in preventive therapy for post-COVID-19 vascular complications may be needed.

Persistent Symptoms and Association With Inflammatory Cytokine Signatures in Recovered Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients.

BACKGROUND: The complications and sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and their effect on long-term health are unclear, and the trajectory of associated immune dysregulation is poorly understood. METHODS: We conducted a prospective longitudinal multicenter cohort study at 4 public hospitals in Singapore. Patients with COVID-19 were monitored for a median of 6 months after recovery from acute infection. Clinical symptoms and radiologic data were collected, along with plasma samples for quantification of immune mediators. The relationship between clinical symptoms and immune cytokine profiles was investigated. RESULTS: Two hundred eighty-eight participants were recruited, and follow-up data were available for 183, 175, and 120 participants at days 30, 90, and 180 postsymptom onset, respectively. Symptoms related to COVID-19 were present in 31 (16.9%), 13 (7.4%), and 14 (11.7%) at days 30, 90, and 180. In a multivariable model, age >65 years, non-Chinese ethnicity, and the severity of acute infection were associated with increased likelihood of persistent symptoms. Recovered COVID-19 patients had elevated levels of proinflammatory interleukin (IL)-17A, stem cell factor, IL-12p70, and IL-1ß and pro-angiogenic macrophage inflammatory protein 1ß, brain-derived neurotrophic factor, and vascular endothelial growth factor at day 180 compared with healthy controls. Higher levels of monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 and platelet-derived growth factor-BB were detected in patients with persistent symptoms, versus symptom-free patients. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 10% of recovered patients had persistent symptoms 6 months after initial infection. Immune cytokine signatures of the recovered patients reflected ongoing chronic inflammation and angiogenesis. Patients with COVID-19 should be monitored closely for emerging long-term health consequences.

Sensitive detection of total anti-Spike antibodies and isotype switching in asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals with COVID-19.

Early detection of infection is crucial to limit the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here we develop a flow cytometry-based assay to detect severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike (S) protein antibodies in individuals with COVID-19. The assay detects specific immunoglobulin M (IgM), IgA, and IgG in individuals with COVID-19 and also acquisition of all IgG subclasses, with IgG1 being the most dominant. The antibody response is significantly higher at a later stage of infection. Furthermore, asymptomatic individuals with COVID-19 also develop specific IgM, IgA, and IgG, with IgG1 being the most dominant subclass. Although the antibody levels are lower in asymptomatic infection, the assay is highly sensitive and detects 97% of asymptomatic infections. These findings demonstrate that the assay can be used for serological analysis of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, which may otherwise remain undetected.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibody responses and duration of immunity: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Studies have found different waning rates of neutralising antibodies compared with binding antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. The impact of neutralising antibody waning rate at the individual patient level on the longevity of immunity remains unknown. We aimed to investigate the peak levels and dynamics of neutralising antibody waning and IgG avidity maturation over time, and correlate this with clinical parameters, cytokines, and T-cell responses. METHODS: We did a longitudinal study of patients who had recovered from COVID-19 up to day 180 post-symptom onset by monitoring changes in neutralising antibody levels using a previously validated surrogate virus neutralisation test. Changes in antibody avidities and other immune markers at different convalescent stages were determined and correlated with clinical features. Using a machine learning algorithm, temporal change in neutralising antibody levels was classified into five groups and used to predict the longevity of neutralising antibody-mediated immunity. FINDINGS: We approached 517 patients for participation in the study, of whom 288 consented for outpatient follow-up and collection of serial blood samples. 164 patients were followed up and had adequate blood samples collected for analysis, with a total of 546 serum samples collected, including 128 blood samples taken up to 180 days post-symptom onset. We identified five distinctive patterns of neutralising antibody dynamics as follows: negative, individuals who did not, at our intervals of sampling, develop neutralising antibodies at the 30% inhibition level (19 [12%] of 164 patients); rapid waning, individuals who had varying levels of neutralising antibodies from around 20 days after symptom onset, but seroreverted in less than 180 days (44 [27%] of 164 patients); slow waning, individuals who remained neutralising antibody-positive at 180 days post-symptom onset (46 [28%] of 164 patients); persistent, although with varying peak neutralising antibody levels, these individuals had minimal neutralising antibody decay (52 [32%] of 164 patients); and delayed response, a small group that showed an unexpected increase of neutralising antibodies during late convalescence (at 90 or 180 days after symptom onset; three [2%] of 164 patients). Persistence of neutralising antibodies was associated with disease severity and sustained level of pro-inflammatory cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors. By contrast, T-cell responses were similar among the different neutralising antibody dynamics groups. On the basis of the different decay dynamics, we established a prediction algorithm that revealed a wide range of neutralising antibody longevity, varying from around 40 days to many decades. INTERPRETATION: Neutralising antibody response dynamics in patients who have recovered from COVID-19 vary greatly, and prediction of immune longevity can only be accurately determined at the individual level. Our findings emphasise the importance of public health and social measures in the ongoing pandemic outbreak response, and might have implications for longevity of immunity after vaccination. FUNDING: National Medical Research Council, Biomedical Research Council, and A*STAR, Singapore.