Congenital syphilis re-emergence in Winnipeg, Manitoba.

Background: Infectious syphilis rates have been increasing in Winnipeg, Manitoba among individuals during their childbearing years. Untreated or inadequately treated prenatal infection often results in congenital syphilis, with devastating consequences to fetal health and survival. The objective of this study was to review public health surveillance data regarding congenital syphilis incidence and birthing parent risk factors in Winnipeg from 2018 to 2020. Methods: Data extracted from a population-based surveillance database maintained by the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority Public Health investigations for all 2018-2020 probable or confirmed cases of early congenital syphilis or syphilitic stillbirth were reviewed. Rates of congenital syphilis were calculated per 1,000 live births. Descriptive analyses were performed to describe birthing parent age, neighbourhood of residence, intravenous substance use, Child and Family Services involvement, access to prenatal care and obtainment of adequate prenatal treatment. Results: There were eight cases of confirmed/probable congenital syphilis in 2018, 22 cases in 2019 and 30 cases in 2020. Average birthing parent age was 26.5-27.0 years. The majority (66.7%) of birthing parents lived in inner city neighbourhoods with known infectious syphilis outbreaks. Over 50% of birthing parents did not receive any prenatal care, or the care received consisted of inadequate treatment or follow-up. Reinfection among birthing parents who did receive prenatal care was suspected in an additional 23.3% of cases. Conclusion: Congenital syphilis rates in Winnipeg have increased dramatically. Public health and healthcare provider efforts to address the needs of the community are vital for promoting access to safe and effective prenatal care.

Machine-learning models for depression and anxiety in individuals with immune-mediated inflammatory disease.

OBJECTIVE: Individuals with immune-mediated inflammatory disease (IMID) have a higher prevalence of psychiatric disorders than the general population. We utilized machine-learning to identify patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) that accurately predict major depressive disorder (MDD) and anxiety disorder in an IMID population. METHODS: Participants with IMID were enrolled in a cohort study and completed a Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I Disorders (SCID), and multiple PROMs. PROM items were ranked separately for MDD and anxiety disorder by the standardized mean difference between individuals with and without psychiatric disorders. Items were added sequentially to logistic regression (LR), neural network (NN), and random forest (RF) models. Discriminative performance was assessed with area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) and calibration was assessed with Brier scores. Ten-fold cross-validation was used. RESULTS: Of 637 participants, 75% were female and average age was 51 years. AUC and Brier scores respectively ranged from 0.87-0.91 and 0.07 (i.e., no variation) for MDD models, and from 0.79-0.83 and 0.09-0.11 for anxiety disorder models. In LR and NN, few PROM items were required to obtain optimal discriminatory performance. RF did not perform as well as LR and NN when few PROM items were included. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive model performance was respectable and revealed insight into PROM items that are predictive of MDD and anxiety disorder. Models that included only the items 'I felt depressed' and 'I felt like I needed help for my anxiety' performed similarly to models that included all items from multiple PROMs.

Trends in chronic disease incidence rates from the Canadian Chronic Disease Surveillance System. / Tendances des taux d'incidence des maladies chroniques d'après le Système canadien de surveillance des maladies chroniques.

INTRODUCTION: The Public Health Agency of Canada's Canadian Chronic Disease Surveillance System (CCDSS) produces population-based estimates of chronic disease prevalence and incidence using administrative health data. Our aim was to assess trends in incidence rates over time, trends are essential to understand changes in population risk and to inform policy development. METHODS: Incident cases of diagnosed asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, hypertension, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and stroke were obtained from the CCDSS online infobase for 1999 to 2012. Trends in national and regional incidence estimates were tested using a negative binomial regression model with year as a linear predictor. Subsequently, models with year as a restricted cubic spline were used to test for departures from linearity using the likelihood ratio test. Age and sex were covariates in all models. RESULTS: Based on the models with year as a linear predictor, national incidence rates were estimated to have decreased over time for all diseases, except diabetes; regional incidence rates for most diseases and regions were also estimated to have decreased. However, likelihood ratio tests revealed statistically significant departures from a linear year effect for many diseases and regions, particularly for hypertension. CONCLUSION: Chronic disease incidence estimates based on CCDSS data are decreasing over time, but not at a constant rate. Further investigations are needed to assess if this decrease is associated with changes in health status, data quality, or physician practices. As well, population characteristics that may influence changing incidence trends also require exploration.

Health-related quality of life for First Nations and Caucasian women in the First Nations Bone Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: Studies about the health of Indigenous (i.e., original inhabitants) populations often focus on chronic diseases and risk behaviors, emphasizing physical aspects of health. Our objective was to test for differences in self-reported health-related quality of life (HRQOL), which provides a multidimensional and holistic perspective on health, between First Nations (one group of Indigenous peoples) and Caucasian women. Data were from the First Nations Bone Health Study, conducted in the Canadian province of Manitoba. HRQOL was measured using the validated Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36). It captures respondent's perceptions of eight health domains, as well as overall mental and physical health components. RESULTS: Analyses were conducted for 707 participants of which 47.4% were of First Nations origin. First Nations respondents had significantly lower unadjusted scores (p < 0.05) than Caucasian respondents on all SF-36 dimensions, except bodily pain and vitality. They also had significantly lower overall mental health scores. After adjusting for multiple determinants of health (e.g., age, education, substance use), differences were no longer statistically significant, except for the social functioning and role emotional domains and overall mental health component. Complex cultural factors are likely responsible for the persistent mental health inequalities experienced by First Nations women.