Comparing six cardiovascular risk prediction models in Haiti: implications for identifying high-risk individuals for primary prevention.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rapidly increasing in low-middle income countries (LMICs). Accurate risk assessment is essential to reduce premature CVD by targeting primary prevention and risk factor treatment among high-risk groups. Available CVD risk prediction models are built on predominantly Caucasian risk profiles from high-income country populations, and have not been evaluated in LMIC populations. We aimed to compare six existing models for predicted 10-year risk of CVD and identify high-risk groups for targeted prevention and treatment in Haiti. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data within the Haiti CVD Cohort Study, including 1345 adults ≥ 40 years without known history of CVD and with complete data. Six CVD risk prediction models were compared: pooled cohort equations (PCE), adjusted PCE with updated cohorts, Framingham CVD Lipids, Framingham CVD Body Mass Index (BMI), WHO Lipids, and WHO BMI. Risk factors were measured during clinical exams. Primary outcome was continuous and categorical predicted 10-year CVD risk. Secondary outcome was statin eligibility. RESULTS: Sixty percent were female, 66.8% lived on a daily income of ≤ 1 USD, 52.9% had hypertension, 14.9% had hypercholesterolemia, 7.8% had diabetes mellitus, 4.0% were current smokers, and 2.5% had HIV. Predicted 10-year CVD risk ranged from 3.6% in adjusted PCE (IQR 1.7-8.2) to 9.6% in Framingham-BMI (IQR 4.9-18.0), and Spearman rank correlation coefficients ranged from 0.86 to 0.98. The percent of the cohort categorized as high risk using model specific thresholds ranged from 1.8% using the WHO-BMI model to 41.4% in the PCE model (χ2 = 1416, p value < 0.001). Statin eligibility also varied widely. CONCLUSIONS: In the Haiti CVD Cohort, there was substantial variation in the proportion identified as high-risk and statin eligible using existing models, leading to very different treatment recommendations and public health implications depending on which prediction model is chosen. There is a need to design and validate CVD risk prediction tools for low-middle income countries that include locally relevant risk factors. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03892265 .

Neighborhood Social Vulnerability and Premature Cardiovascular Disease in Haiti.

Importance: Higher social vulnerability is associated with premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality but is understudied in low-income countries that have both the highest magnitude of social vulnerability and a growing CVD epidemic. Objective: To evaluate the association between social vulnerability and hypertension, CVD, and CVD subtypes in Haiti as a model for similar low-income countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study used enrollment data from adults participating in the Haiti Cardiovascular Disease Cohort Study. Recruitment occurred via multistage random sampling throughout slum and urban neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, from March 2019 to August 2021. Data were analyzed from May 2022 to December 2023. Exposures: A modified Haitian Social Vulnerability Index (SVI-H) was created following the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Social Vulnerability Index method. Twelve variables across the domains of socioeconomic status, household characteristics, and social and community context were included. The SVI-H was calculated for each study neighborhood block and then stratified into SVI-H quartiles (quartile 1 was the least vulnerable; quartile 4, the most vulnerable). Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalent hypertension and total CVD, defined as heart failure (HF), stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), angina, or myocardial infarction (MI). Age-adjusted Poisson regression analysis yielded prevalence ratios (PRs) comparing the prevalence of hypertension, total CVD, and CVD subtypes across SVI-H quartiles. Results: Among 2925 adults (1704 [58.3%] female; mean [SD] age, 41.9 [15.9] years), the prevalence of hypertension was 32.8% (95% CI, 31.1%-34.5%) and the prevalence of CVD was 14.7% (95% CI, 13.5%-16.0%). Hypertension prevalence ranged from 26.2% (95% CI, 23.1%-29.3%) to 38.4% (95% CI, 34.8%-42.0%) between quartiles 1 and 4, while CVD prevalence ranged from 11.1% (95% CI, 8.8%-13.3%) to 19.7% (95% CI, 16.8%-22.6%). SVI-H quartile 4 vs 1 was associated with a greater prevalence of hypertension (PR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02-1.34) and CVD (PR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.16-1.89). Among CVD subtypes, SVI-H was significantly associated with HF (PR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.23-2.18) but not with combined stroke and TIA or combined angina and MI. Conclusions and Relevance: In urban Haiti, individuals living in neighborhoods with the highest social vulnerability had greater prevalence of hypertension and HF. Understanding CVD disparities in low-income countries is essential for targeting prevention and treatment interventions toward populations at highest risk globally.

Spectrum of prevalent cardiovascular diseases in urban Port-au-Prince, Haiti: a population-based cross-sectional study.

Background: Eighty percent of global cardiovascular disease (CVD) is projected to occur in low- and middle -income countries (LMICs), yet local epidemiological data are scarce. We provide the first population-based, adjudicated CVD prevalence estimates in Port-au-Prince, Haiti to describe the spectrum of heart disease and investigate associated risk factors. Methods: Demographic, medical history, clinical, imaging and laboratory data were collected among adults recruited using multistage random sampling from 2019 to 2021. Prevalent CVD (heart failure, stroke, ischemic disease) were adjudicated using epidemiological criteria similar to international cohorts. Multivariable Poisson regressions assessed relationships between risk factors and prevalent CVD. Findings: Among 3003 participants, median age was 40 years, 58.1% were female, 70.2% reported income <1 USD/day, and all identified as Black Haitian. CVD age-adjusted prevalence was 14.7% (95% CI 13.3%, 16.5%), including heart failure (11.9% [95% CI 10.5%, 13.5%]), stroke (2.4% [95% CI 1.9%, 3.3%]), angina (2.1% [95% CI 1.6%, 2.9%]), myocardial infarction (1.0% [95% CI 0.6%, 1.8%]), and transient ischemic attack (0.4% [95% CI 0.2%, 1.0%]). Among participants with heart failure, median age was 57 years and 68.5% of cases were among women. The most common subtype was heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (80.4%). Heart failure was associated with hypertension, obesity, chronic kidney disease, depression, and stress. Interpretation: Early-onset heart failure prevalence is alarmingly high in urban Haiti and challenge modelling assumptions that ischemic heart disease and stroke dominate CVDs in LMICs. These data underscore the importance of local population-based epidemiologic data within LMICs to expedite the selection and implementation of evidence-based cardiovascular health policies targeting each country's spectrum of heart disease. Funding: This study was funded by NIH grants R01HL143788, D43TW011972, and K24HL163393, clinicaltrials.govNCT03892265.

Population-Based Epidemiology of Heart Failure in a Low-Income Country: The Haiti Cardiovascular Disease Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease disproportionately affects persons living in low- and middle-income countries and heart failure (HF) is thought to be a leading cause. Population-based studies characterizing the epidemiology of HF in these settings are lacking. We describe the age-standardized prevalence, survival, subtypes, risk factors, and 1-year mortality of HF in the population-based Haiti Cardiovascular Disease Cohort. METHODS: Participants were recruited using multistage cluster-area random sampling in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. A total of 2981 completed standardized history and exam, laboratory measures, and cardiac imaging. Clinical HF was defined by Framingham criteria. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard regression assessed mortality among participants with and without HF; logistic regression identified associated factors. RESULTS: Among all participants, the median age was 40 years (interquartile range, 27-55), and 58.2% were female. Median follow-up was 15.4 months (interquartile range, 9-22). The age-standardized HF prevalence was 3.2% (93/2981 [95% CI, 2.6-3.9]). The average age of participants with HF was 57 years (interquartile range, 45-65), and 67.7% were female. The first significant increase in HF prevalence occurred between 30 to 39 and 40 to 49 years (1.1% versus 3.7%, P=0.003). HF with preserved ejection fraction was the most common HF subtype (71.0%). Age (adjusted odds ratio, 1.36 [1.12-1.66] per 10-year increase), hypertension (2.14 [1.26-3.66]), obesity (3.35 [95% CI, 1.99-5.62]), poverty (2.10 [1.18-3.72]), and renal dysfunction (5.42 [2.94-9.98]) were associated with HF. One-year HF mortality was 6.6% versus 0.8% (hazard ratio, 7.7 [95% CI, 2.9-20.6]; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The age-standardized prevalence of HF in this low-income setting was alarmingly high at 3.2%-5-fold higher than modeling estimates for low- and middle-income countries. Adults with HF were two decades younger and 7.7× more likely to die at 1 year compared with those in the community without HF. Further research characterizing the population burden of HF in low- and middle-income countries can guide resource allocation and development of pragmatic HF prevention and treatment interventions, ultimately reducing global cardiovascular disease health disparities. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03892265.