Weighted expectile regression for right-censored data.

Expectile regression can be used to analyze the entire conditional distribution of a response, omitting all distributional assumptions. Among its benefits are computational simplicity, efficiency, and the possibility to incorporate a semiparametric predictor. Due to its advantages in full data settings, we propose an extension to right-censored data situations, where conventional methods typically focus only on mean effects. We propose to extend expectile regression with inverse probability weights. Estimates are easy to implement and computationally simple. Expectiles can be converted to more easily interpreted tail expectations, that is, the expected residual life. It provides a meaningful effect measure, similar to the hazard rate. The results from an extensive simulation study are presented, evaluating consistency and sensitivity to violations of assumptions. We use the proposed method to analyze survival times of colorectal cancer patients from a regional certified high volume cancer center.

Validity of hospital ICD-10-GM codes to identify anaphylaxis.

PURPOSE: Anaphylaxis (ANA) is an important adverse drug reaction. We examined positive predictive values (PPV) and other test characteristics of ICD-10-GM code algorithms for detecting ANA as used in a multinational safety study (PASS). METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study on routine data from a German academic hospital (2004-2019, age ≥ 18). Chart review was used for case verification. Potential cases were identified from the hospital administration system. The main outcome required at least one of the following: any type of specific in-hospital code (T78.2, T88.6, and T80.5) OR specific outpatient code in combination with a symptom code OR in-hospital non-specific code (T78.4, T88.7, and Y57.9) in combination with two symptom codes. PPV were calculated with 95% confidence interval. Sensitivity analyses modified type of codes, unit of analysis, verification criteria and time period. The most specific algorithm used only primary codes for ANA (numbers added in brackets). RESULTS: Four hundred and sixteen eligible cases were evaluated, and 78 (37) potential ANA cases were identified. PPV were 62.8% (95% CI 51.1-73.5) (main) and 77.4% (58.9-90.4) (most specific). PPV from all modifications ranged from 12.9% to 80.6%. The sensitivity of the main algorithm was 66.2%, specificity 91.5%, and negative predictive value 92.6%. Corresponding figures for the most specific algorithm were 32.4%, 98.0%, and 87.0%. CONCLUSIONS: The PPV of the main algorithm seems of acceptable validity for use in comparative safety research but will underestimate absolute risks by about a third. Restriction to primary discharge codes markedly improves PPV to the expense of reducing sensitivity.

Use of intravenous iron and risk of anaphylaxis: A multinational observational post-authorisation safety study in Europe.

PURPOSE: This post-authorisation safety study estimated the risk of anaphylaxis in patients receiving intravenous (IV) iron in Europe, with interest in iron dextran and iron non-dextrans. Studies conducted in the United States have reported risk of anaphylaxis to IV iron ranging from 2.0 to 6.8 per 10 000 first treatments. METHODS: Cohort study of IV iron new users, captured mostly through pharmacy ambulatory dispensing, from populations covered by health and administrative data sources in five European countries from 1999 to 2017. Anaphylaxis events were identified through an algorithm that used parenteral penicillin as a positive control. RESULTS: A total of 304 210 patients with a first IV iron treatment (6367 iron dextran), among whom 13-16 anaphylaxis cases were identified and reported as a range to comply with data protection regulations. The pooled unadjusted incidence proportion (IP) ranged from 0.4 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2-0.9) to 0.5 (95% CI, 0.3-1.0) per 10 000 first treatments. No events were identified at first dextran treatments. There were 231 294 first penicillin treatments with 30 potential cases of anaphylaxis (IP = 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8-1.7 per 10 000 treatments). CONCLUSION: We found an IP of anaphylaxis from 0.4 to 0.5 per 10 000 first IV iron treatments. The study captured only a fraction of IV iron treatments administered in hospitals, where most first treatments are likely to happen. Due to this limitation, the study could not exclude a differential risk of anaphylaxis between iron dextran and iron non-dextrans. The IP of anaphylaxis in users of penicillin was consistent with incidences reported in the literature.

General practitioners' approaches to prostate-specific antigen testing in the north-east of the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: There is wide variation in clinical practice for the early detection of prostate cancer, not least because of the ongoing debate about the benefits of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. In this study, we aimed to assess the approaches, attitudes, and knowledge of general practitioners (GPs) regarding PSA testing in primary care in the Netherlands, particularly regarding recommendations for prostate cancer. METHODS: Questionnaire surveys were sent to 179 GPs in the north-east of the Netherlands, of which 65 (36%) were completed and returned. We also surveyed 23 GPs attending a postgraduate train-the-trainer day (100%). In addition to demographic data and practice characteristics, the 31-item questionnaire covered the attitudes, clinical practice, adherence to PSA screening recommendations, and knowledge concerning the recommendations for prostate cancer early detection. Statistical analysis was limited to the descriptive level. RESULTS: Most GPs (95%; n = 82) stated that they had at least read the Dutch GP guideline, but just half (50%; n = 43) also stated that they knew the content. Almost half (46%; n = 39) stated they would offer detailed counseling before ordering a PSA test to an asymptomatic man requesting a test. Overall, prostate cancer screening was reported to be of minor importance compared to other types of cancer screening. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical PSA testing in primary care in this region of the Netherlands seems generally to be consistent with the relevant guideline for Dutch GPs that is restrictive to PSA testing. The next step will be to further evaluate the effects of the several PSA testing strategies.

Validity of hospital ICD-10-GM codes to identify acute liver injury in Germany.

PURPOSE: Acute liver injury (ALI) is an important adverse drug reaction. We estimated the positive predictive values (PPVs) of ICD-10-GM codes of ALI used in an international postauthorisation safety study (PASS). METHODS: Analyses used routine data (2007 to 2016, adults) from a German academic hospital in a cross-sectional design. Two algorithms from the PASS were applied to extract potential cases from the hospital information system: specific end point (A) (discharge diagnosis of liver disease-specific codes) and less specific end point (B) (discharge and outpatient-specific and nonspecific codes suggestive of liver injury). ALI cases were confirmed on the basis of plasma liver enzyme activity elevation. Secondary analysis was performed following exclusion of cases with known cancer, chronic liver, biliary and pancreatic disease, heart failure, and alcohol-related disorders, as applied in the PASS. RESULTS: On the basis of ICD codes: outcome A, 154 cases (143 with case notes and lab data for case verification); outcome B, 485 cases (357 with case notes and lab data). ALI was confirmed in 71 outcome A cases, PPV of 49.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 41.2%-58.1%), and 100 outcome B cases, PPV of 28.0% (95% CI, 23.4%-33.0%). Applying exclusion criteria increased PPV (95% CI) to 62.7% (50.0%-74.2%) for outcome A and 45.7% (37.2%-54.3%) for outcome B. CONCLUSIONS: In safety studies on hepatotoxicity based on routine data using ICD-10-GM discharge codes and when validation of potential cases is not feasible, only the more specific codes should be used to describe ALI, and competing diagnoses for liver injury should be excluded to avoid substantial misclassification.

Sequential tests for monitoring methods to detect elevated incidence - a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Common cancer monitoring practice is seldom prospective and rather driven by public requests. This study aims to assess the performance of a recently developed prospective cancer monitoring method and the statistical tools used, in particular the sequential probability ratio test in regard to specificity, sensitivity, observation time and heterogeneity of size of the geographical unit. METHODS: A simulation study based on a predefined selection of cancer types, geographical unit and time period was set up. Based on the population structure of Lower Saxony the mean number of cases of three diagnoses were randomly assigned to the geographical units during 2008-2012. A two-stage monitoring procedure was then executed considering the standardized incidence ratio and sequential probability ratio test. Scenarios were constructed differing by the simulation of clusters, significance level and test parameter indicating a risk to be elevated. RESULTS: Performance strongly depended on the choice of the test parameter. If the expected numbers of cases were low, the significance level was not fully exhausted. Hence, the number of false positives was lower than the chosen significance level suggested, leading to a high specificity. Sensitivity increased with the expected number of cases and the amount of risk and decreased with the size of the geographical unit. CONCLUSIONS: The procedure showed some desirable properties and is ready to use for a few settings but demands adjustments for others. Future work might consider refinements of the geographical structure. Inhomogeneous unit size could be addressed by a flexible choice of the test parameter related to the observation time.

Anti-IL-12/23p40 antibodies for induction of remission in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Ustekinumab (CNTO 1275) and briakinumab (ABT-874) are monoclonal antibodies that target the standard p40 subunit of the cytokines interleukin-12 and interleukin-23 (IL-12/23p40), which are involved in the pathogenesis of Crohn's disease. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this review were to assess the efficacy and safety of anti-IL-12/23p40 antibodies for induction of remission in Crohn's disease. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the following databases from inception to 12 September 2016: PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library (CENTRAL). References and conference abstracts were searched to identify additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) trials in which monoclonal antibodies against IL-12/23p40 were compared to placebo or another active comparator in patients with active Crohn's disease were included.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently screened  studies for inclusion and extracted data. Methodological quality was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. The primary outcome was failure to induce clinical remission, defined as a Crohn's disease activity index (CDAI) of < 150 points. Secondary outcomes included failure to induce clinical improvement, adverse events, serious adverse events, and withdrawals due to adverse events. Clinical improvement was defined as decreases of > 70 or > 100 points in the CDAI from baseline. We calculated the risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each outcome. Data were analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis. The overall quality of the evidence supporting the outcomes was evaluated using the GRADE criteria. MAIN RESULTS: Six RCTs (n = 2324 patients) met the inclusion criteria. A low risk of bias was assigned to all studies. The two briakinumab trials were not pooled due to differences in doses and time points for analysis. In both studies there was no statistically significant difference in remission rates. One study (n = 79) compared doses of 1 mg/kg and 3 mg/kg to placebo. In the briakinumab group 70% (44/63) of patients failed to enter clinical remission at 6 or 9 weeks compared to 81% (13/16) of placebo patients (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.14). Subgroup analysis revealed no significant differences by dose. The other briakinumab study (n = 230) compared intravenous doses of 200 mg, 400 mg and 700 mg with placebo. Eighty-four per cent (154/184) of briakinumab patients failed to enter clinical remission at six weeks compared to 91% (42/46) of placebo patients (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.03). Subgroup analysis revealed no significant differences by dose. GRADE analyses of the briakinumab studies rated the overall quality of the evidence for the outcome clinical remission as low. Based on the results of these two studies the manufacturers of briakinumab stopped production of this medication. The ustekinumab studies were pooled despite differences in intravenous doses (i.e. 1mg/kg, 3 mg/kg, 4.5 mg/kg, and 6 mg/kg), however the subcutaneous dose group was not included in the analysis, as it was unclear if subcutaneous was equivalent to intravenous dosing. There was a statistically significant difference in remission rates. At week six, 84% (764/914) of ustekinumab patients failed to enter remission compared to 90% (367/406) of placebo patients (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.96; 3 studies; high-quality evidence). Subgroup analysis showed a statistically significant difference for the 6.0 mg/kg dose group (moderate-quality evidence). There were statistically significant differences in clinical improvement between ustekinumab and placebo-treated patients. In the ustekinumab group, 55% (502/914) of patients failed to improve clinically (i.e. 70-point decline in CDAI score), compared to 71% (287/406) of placebo patients (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.85; 3 studies). Subgroup analysis revealed significant differences compared to placebo for the 1 mg/kg, 4.5 mg/kg and 6 mg/kg dosage subgroups. Similarly for a 100-point decline in CDAI, 64% (588/914) of patients in the ustekinumab group failed to improve clinically compared to 78% (318/406) of placebo patients (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.88; 3 studies; high-quality evidence). Subgroup analysis showed a significant difference compared to placebo for the 4.5 mg/kg and 6.0 mg/kg (high-quality evidence) dose groups. There were no statistically significant differences in the incidence of adverse events, serious adverse events or withdrawal due to adverse events. Sixty-two per cent (860/1386) of ustekinumab patients developed at least one adverse event compared to 64% (407/637) of placebo patients (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.04; 4 studies; high-quality evidence). Five per cent (75/1386) of ustekinumab patients had a serious adverse event compared to 6% (41/637) of placebo patients (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.20; 4 studies; moderate-quality evidence). The most common adverse events in briakinumab patients were injection site reactions and infections. Infections were the most common adverse event in ustekinumab patients. Worsening of Crohn's disease and serious infections were the most common serious adverse events. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: High quality evidence suggests that ustekinumab is effective for induction of clinical remission and clinical improvement in patients with moderate to severe Crohn's disease. Moderate to high quality evidence suggests that the optimal dosage of ustekinumab is 6 mg/kg. Briakinumab and ustekinumab appear to be safe. Moderate quality evidence suggests no increased risk of serious adverse events. Future studies are required to determine the long-term efficacy and safety of ustekinumab in patients with moderate to severe Crohn's disease.

Azathioprine and 6-mercaptopurine for maintenance of remission in ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND: Maintenance of remission is a major issue in inflammatory bowel disease. In ulcerative colitis, the evidence for the effectiveness of azathioprine and 6-mercaptopurine for the maintenance of remission is still controversial. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and safety of azathioprine and 6-mercaptopurine for maintaining remission of ulcerative colitis. SEARCH METHODS: The MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases were searched from inception to 30 July 2015. Both full randomized controlled trials and associated abstracts were included. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials of at least 12 months duration that compared azathioprine or 6-mercaptopurine with placebo or standard maintenance therapy (e.g. mesalazine) were included. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently extracted data using standard forms. Disagreements were solved by consensus including a third author. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. The primary outcome was failure to maintain clinical or endoscopic remission. Secondary outcomes included adverse events and withdrawal due to adverse events. Analyses were performed separately by type of control (placebo, or active comparator). Pooled risk ratios were calculated based on the fixed-effect model unless heterogeneity was shown. The GRADE approach was used to assess the overall quality of evidence for pooled outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: Seven studies including 302 patients with ulcerative colitis were included in the review. The risk of bias was high in three of the studies due to lack of blinding. Azathioprine was shown to be significantly superior to placebo for maintenance of remission. Fourty-four per cent (51/115) of azathioprine patients failed to maintain remission compared to 65% (76/117) of placebo patients (4 studies, 232 patients; RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.86). A GRADE analysis rated the overall quality of the evidence for this outcome as low due to risk of bias and imprecision (sparse data). Two trials that compared 6-mercaptopurine to mesalazine, or azathioprine to sulfasalazine showed significant heterogeneity and thus were not pooled. Fifty per cent (7/14) of 6-mercaptopurine patients failed to maintain remission compared to 100% (8/8) of mesalazine patients (1 study, 22 patients; RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.90). Fifty-eight per cent (7/12) of azathioprine patients failed to maintain remission compared to 38% (5/13) of sulfasalazine patients (1 study, 25 patients; RR 1.52, 95% CI 0.66 to 3.50). One small study found that 6-mercaptopurine was superior to methotrexate for maintenance of remission. In the study, 50% (7/14) of 6-mercaptopurine patients and 92% (11/12) of methotrexate patients failed to maintain remission (1 study, 26 patients; RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.95). One very small study compared azathioprine with cyclosporin and found that there was no significant difference between patients failing remission on azathioprine (50%, 4/8) or cyclosporin (62.5%, 5/8) (1 study, 16 patients, RR 0.80 95% CI 0.33 to 1.92). When placebo-controlled studies were pooled with aminosalicylate-comparator studies to assess adverse events, there was no statistically significant difference between azathioprine and control in the incidence of adverse events. Nine per cent (11/127) of azathioprine patients experienced at least one adverse event compared to 2% (3/130) of placebo patients (5 studies, 257 patients; RR 2.82, 95% CI 0.99 to 8.01). Patients receiving azathioprine were at significantly increased risk of withdrawing due to adverse events. Eight per cent (8/101) of azathioprine patients withdrew due to adverse events compared to 0% (0/98) of control patients (5 studies, 199 patients; RR 5.43, 95% CI 1.02 to 28.75). Adverse events related to study medication included acute pancreatitis (3 cases, plus 1 case on cyclosporin) and significant bone marrow suppression (5 cases). Deaths, opportunistic infection or neoplasia were not reported. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Azathioprine therapy appears to be more effective than placebo for maintenance of remission in ulcerative colitis. Azathioprine or 6-mercaptopurine may be effective as maintenance therapy for patients who have failed or cannot tolerate mesalazine or sulfasalazine and for patients who require repeated courses of steroids. More research is needed to evaluate superiority over standard maintenance therapy, especially in the light of a potential for adverse events from azathioprine. This review updates the existing review of azathioprine and 6-mercaptopurine for maintenance of remission in ulcerative colitis which was published in the Cochrane Library (September 2012).

Anti-IL-12/23p40 antibodies for induction of remission in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Ustekinumab (CNTO 1275) and briakinumab (ABT-874) are monoclonal antibodies that target the standard p40 subunit of the cytokines interleukin-12 and interleukin-23 (IL-12/23p40), which are involved in the pathogenesis of Crohn's disease. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this review were to assess the efficacy and safety of anti-IL-12/23p40 antibodies for induction of remission in Crohn's disease. SEARCH METHODS: The following databases were searched from inception to September 16, 2014: PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library (CENTRAL). References and conference abstracts were searched to identify additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) trials in which monoclonal antibodies against IL-12/23p40 were compared to placebo or another active comparator in patients with active Crohn's disease were included.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently screened  studies for inclusion and extracted data. Methodological quality was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. The primary outcome was failure to induce clinical remission, defined as a Crohn's disease activity index (CDAI) of < 150 points. Secondary outcomes included failure to induce clinical improvement, serious adverse events, and withdrawals due to adverse events. Clinical improvement was defined as decreases of > 70 or > 100 points in the CDAI from baseline. We calculated the risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each outcome. A fixed-effect model was used to pool data. Data were analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis. The overall quality of the evidence supporting the outcomes was evaluated using the GRADE criteria. MAIN RESULTS: Four randomized controlled trials (n = 955 patients) met the inclusion criteria. A low risk of bias was assigned to all studies. The two briakinumab trials were not pooled due to differences in doses and time points for analysis. In both studies there was no statistically significant difference in remission rates. One study (n = 79) compared doses of 1 mg/kg and 3 mg/kg to placebo. In the briakinumab group 70% (44/63) of patients failed to enter clinical remission at 6 or 9 weeks compared to 81% (13/16) of placebo patients (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.14). Subgroup analysis revealed no significant differences by dose. The other briakinumab study (n = 230) compared intravenous doses of 200 mg, 400 mg and 700 mg with placebo. Eighty-four per cent (154/184) of briakinumab patients failed to enter clinical remission at six weeks compared to 91% (42/46) of placebo patients (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.03). Subgroup analysis revealed no significant differences by dose. GRADE analyses of the briakinumab studies rated the overall quality of the evidence for the outcome clinical remission as low due. Based on the results of these two studies the manufacturers of briakinumab stopped production of this medication. The two ustekinumab studies (630 patients) were pooled despite differences in intravenous doses (i.e. 1mg/kg, 3 mg/kg, 4.5 mg/kg, and 6 mg/kg), however the subcutaneous dose group was not included in the analysis, as it was unclear if subcutaneous was equivalent to intravenous dosing. There was no statistically significant difference in remission rates. At week six, 85% (356/420) of ustekinumab patients failed to enter remission compared to 89% (142/159) of placebo patients (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.01). Subgroup analysis showed no statistically significant difference by dose. There were statistically significant differences in clinical improvement between ustekinumab and placebo-treated patients. In the ustekinumab group, 55% (230/420) of patients failed to improve clinically (i.e. 70-point decline in CDAI score), compared to 72% (115/159) of placebo patients (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.86). Subgroup analysis revealed significant differences compared to placebo for the 1 mg/kg, 4.5 mg/kg and 6 mg/kg dosage subgroups. Similarly for a 100-point decline in CDAI, 62% (262/420) of patients in the ustekinumab group failed to improve clinically compared to 78% (124/159) of placebo patients (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.89). Subgroup analysis showed a significant difference compared to placebo for the 4.5 mg/kg dose group. GRADE analyses of the ustekinumab studies rated the overall quality of the evidence for the outcomes clinical remission and clinical response as moderate. There were no statistically significant differences in the incidence of adverse events, serious adverse events or withdrawal due to adverse events. Sixty-seven per cent (316/473) of ustekinumab patients developed at least one adverse event compared to 73% (135/184) of placebo patients (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.03). A GRADE analysis indicated that the overall quality of the evidence for this outcome was high. Six per cent (29/473) of ustekinumab patients had a serious adverse event compared to 8% (14/184) of placebo patients (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.44 to 1.49). A GRADE analysis indicated that the overall quality of the evidence for this outcome was low. The most common adverse events in briakinumab patients were injection site reactions and infections. Infections were the most common adverse event in ustekinumab patients. Worsening of Crohn's disease and serious infections were the most common serious adverse events. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Although we are uncertain about the efficacy of ustekinumab for induction of remission, moderate quality evidence suggests that ustekinumab may be effective for induction of clinical improvement in patients with moderate to severe CD. Due to small numbers of patients in dose subgroups the optimal dosage of ustekinumab is unclear. Briakinumab and ustekinumab appear to be safe. Due to sparse data we were unable to determine the risk of serious adverse events. Further studies are required to determine the efficacy and safety of ustekinumab in patients with moderate to severe CD. The results of three phase III trials that are currently underway will provide important new information.

Measuring satisfaction with health care in young persons with inflammatory bowel disease--an instrument development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Patient satisfaction is a relevant prognostic factor in young persons with chronic disease and may be both age and disease specific. To assess health care quality from the patient's view in young persons with inflammatory bowel disease, an easy to use, valid, reliable and informative specific instrument was needed. METHODS: All parts of the study were directed at persons with inflammatory bowel disease aged 15 to 24 ("youth"). A qualitative internet patient survey was used to generate items, complemented by a physician survey and literature search. A 2nd internet survey served to reduce items based on perceived importance and representativeness. Following pilot testing to assess ease of use and face validity, 150 respondents to a postal survey in patients from a paediatric clinical registry were included for validation analyses. Construct validity was assessed by relating summary scores to results from global questions on satisfaction with care using ANOVA. To assess test-retest reliability using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), a subset of patients were assessed twice within 3 months. RESULTS: 302 persons with IBD and 55 physicians participated in the item generating internet survey, resulting in 3,954 statements. After discarding redundancies 256 statements were presented in the 2nd internet survey. Of these, 32 items were retained. The resulting instrument assesses both the perceived relevance (importance) of an item as well as the performance of the care giver for each item for calculation of a summary satisfaction score (range 0 to 1). Sensibility testing showed good acceptance for most items. Construct validity was good, with mean scores of 0.63 (0.50 to 0.76), 0.71 (0.69 to 0.74) and 0.81 (0.79 to 0.83) for no, some and good global satisfaction (ANOVA, p < 0.001). Test-retest reliability was satisfactory (ICC 0.6 to 0.7). CONCLUSIONS: We developed an easy to use, patient oriented, valid instrument to assess satisfaction with care in young persons with IBD for use in survey research.

Integrating the Patient Perspective to Validate a Measure of Disease Severity in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Online Survey of Patients and Their Physicians.

BACKGROUND: The patient perspective is essential for assessing disease severity, but it is not always adequately considered. We describe how a comprehensive clinical disease severity index (DSI) for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) correlates with patient global self-assessment (PGSA). METHODS: In an individually linked parallel online survey, physicians provided the DSI, and patients provided self-assessed severity using a global question and visual analog scale (0-100) (PGSA). Mean DSI values by PGSA were calculated with 95% confidence intervals. Pearson correlation (r) and the intraclass correlation coefficient were calculated for PGSA vs DSI. Positive predictive values for identifying severe disease with PGSA categories as a reference were based on a threshold >22 points. RESULTS: The primary analysis included 89 pairs (46 Crohn's disease [CD], 43 ulcerative colitis [UC]) with strict criteria and 147 pairs when less stringent. Common reasons for exclusion were missing values for albumin or colonoscopy. Mean DSI values showed no clear trend with increasing PGSA in CD but good discrimination between moderate, severe, and very severe PGSA in UC. For PGSA on the visual analog scale, r was 0.54 for CD and 0.59 for UC (difference in means: CD 27.7, UC 13.8; intraclass correlation coefficient: CD 0.48, UC 0.58). A high DSI predicted severe disease in 76.2% of CD and 65.2% of UC. CONCLUSIONS: The DSI showed good discrimination for patient-reported disease severity in UC but performed unsatisfactorily in CD. Correlations were moderate. Further refinement of the DSI is suggested to better reflect the patient perspective.

The performance of an inflammatory bowel disease severity score was compared with self-perceived severity based on an individually linked online survey of patients and their physicians. Agreement and prediction of severe disease were moderate and should be improved by integrating the patients' perspective.

Pelargonium sidoides extract for treating acute respiratory tract infections.

BACKGROUND: Pelargonium sidoides (P. sidoides), also known as Umckaloabo, is a herbal remedy thought to be effective in the treatment of acute respiratory infections (ARIs). OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy and safety of P. sidoides for the treatment of ARIs in children and adults. SEARCH METHODS: In April 2013 we searched MEDLINE, Journals@Ovid, The Cochrane Library, Biosis Previews, Web of Science, CINAHL, CCMed, XToxline, Global Health, AMED, Derwent Drug File and Backfile, IPA, ISTPB + ISTP/ISSHP, EMBASE, Cambase, LILACS, PubMed component "Supplied by Publisher", TRIPdatabase, the publisher databases: Deutsches Ärzteblatt, Thieme, Springer, ScienceDirect from Elsevier. We conducted a cited reference search (forward) in Web of Science of relevant papers for inclusion. In addition we searched the study registries ClinicalTrials.gov, Deutsches Register klinischer Studien DRKS (German Clinical Trials Register), International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) - WHO ICTRP, Current Controlled Trials and EU Clinical Trials Register. SELECTION CRITERIA: Double-blind, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examining the efficacy of P. sidoides preparations in ARIs compared to placebo or any other treatment. Complete resolution of all symptoms was defined as the primary outcome; in addition, we examined resolution of predefined key symptoms. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: At least two review authors (AT, JG, WK) independently extracted and quality scored the data. We performed separate analyses by age group and disease entity. Subanalysis considered type of preparation (liquid, tablets). We examined heterogeneity using the I(2) statistic. We calculated pooled risk ratios (RR) using a fixed-effect model if heterogeneity was absent (I(2) < 5%; P > 0.1), or a random-effects model in the presence of heterogeneity. If heterogeneity was substantial (I(2) > 50%; P < 0.10), a pooled effect was not calculated. MAIN RESULTS: Of 10 eligible studies eight were included in the analyses; two were of insufficient quality. Three trials (746 patients, low quality of evidence) of efficacy in acute bronchitis in adults showed effectiveness for most outcomes in the liquid preparation but not for tablets. Three other trials (819 children, low quality of evidence) showed similar results for acute bronchitis in children. For both meta-analyses, we did not pool sub totals due to relevant heterogeneity induced by type of preparation.One study in patients with sinusitis (n = 103 adults, very low quality of evidence) showed significant treatment effects (complete resolution at day 21; RR 0.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.30 to 0.62). One study in the common cold demonstrated efficacy after 10 days, but not five days (very low quality of evidence). We rated the study quality as moderate for all studies (unvalidated outcome assessment, minor attrition problems, investigator-initiated trials only). Based on the funnel plot there was suspicion of publication bias.There were no valid data for the treatment of other acute respiratory tract infections. Adverse events were more common with P. sidoides, but none were serious. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: P. sidoides may be effective in alleviating symptoms of acute rhinosinusitis and the common cold in adults, but doubt exists. It may be effective in relieving symptoms in acute bronchitis in adults and children, and sinusitis in adults. The overall quality of the evidence was considered low for main outcomes in acute bronchitis in children and adults, and very low for acute sinusitis and the common cold. Reliable data on treatment for other ARIs were not identified.

Antidepressant drug use and off-label prescribing in children and adolescents in Germany: results from a large population-based cohort study.

The off-label use of drugs in children and adolescents is widespread. In Germany, the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and other antidepressants (OADs) is not licensed for the treatment of depressive disorders in children and adolescents except for fluoxetine, which was approved in 2006. Against this background, antidepressant drug (ATD) use with a particular focus on off-label prescribing was characterised in a retrospective cohort study including cross-sectional analyses based on claims data of 2,599,685 patients up to 17 years of age. Prevalence of ATD use was 1.84 (95% CI 1.78-1.90) per 1,000 children in 2004, 1.57 (95% CI 1.52-1.62) in 2005 and 1.66 (95% CI 1.61-1.72) in 2006. More than half of all children treated with ATDs (51.29%) received only one single prescription of an ATD during the study period. Of all prescribed ATDs, 11,172 (42.09%) were tricyclic antidepressants 9,179 (34.58%) were SSRIs, 4,371 (16.47%) were St John's wort preparations and 1,821 (6.86%) were OADs. Around half of all children and adolescents who were treated with ATDs were diagnosed with depressive disorders (56.30%). Overall, 13,035 (49.11%) of all ATDs were prescribed off-label. Off-label use by age (40.18%) was found to be more common than off-label use by indication (16.63%) with 7.70% of off-label use occurring in both categories. Specialist treatment by hospital-based physicians increased the risk (odds ratio: 2.26, 95% CI 2.05-2.48) of receiving an off-label prescription compared to treatment by general practitioners. In summary, off-label use of ATDs in children and adolescents was substantial in Germany.

Effect of mechanical insufflation-exsufflation for ineffective cough on weaning duration in diseases of the peripheral or central nervous system (MEDINE): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial in a neurological weaning centre.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with neurological or neurosurgical disease can suffer from impaired cough, which may result in life-threatening retention of tracheobronchial secretions, atelectasis, pneumonia and finally death. Due to a lack of alternatives and pathophysiological plausibility, the application of mechanical insufflation-exsufflation (MI-E) has already become international standard care in neuromuscular disease and spinal cord injury although a lack of evidence for efficacy. High-quality studies to support the use of MI-E in neurological and neurosurgical patients during weaning from mechanical ventilation are missing. The goal of this exploratory study is to display the effect size of MI-E intervention on the duration of mechanical ventilation and additional outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: One hundred adult patients with a cough deficiency or retention of secretion admitted to a neurological intensive care unit (ICU) are planned to be recruited for this randomised controlled trial. Patients are randomised 1:1 to receive either MI-E or best standard care. Observation will take place until discharge from the hospital, death or end of the study period. The primary endpoint of this trial is the duration of mechanical ventilation from randomisation until successful weaning. The outcome will be analysed with Kaplan-Meier estimation and competing risks analyses. Secondary endpoint is the proportion of patients with successful weaning. Further outcomes will include the incidence of hospital-acquired pneumonia, mortality, decannulation rate, length of stay on the ICU and the total score of the Glasgow Coma Scale. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of the University of Oldenburg. The findings of this study will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: DRKS00020981.

Azathioprine and 6-mercaptopurine for maintenance of remission in ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND: Maintenance of remission is a major issue in inflammatory bowel disease. In ulcerative colitis, the evidence for the effectiveness of azathioprine and 6-mercaptopurine for the maintenance of remission is still controversial. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and safety of azathioprine and 6-mercaptopurine for maintaining remission of ulcerative colitis. SEARCH METHODS: The MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases were searched from inception to June 2012. A manual search was also performed using references from these articles as well as review articles, and proceedings from major gastrointestinal meetings. Authors of maintenance trials were asked about unpublished studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials of at least 12 months duration that compared azathioprine or 6-mercaptopurine with placebo or standard maintenance therapy (e.g. mesalazine) were included. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently extracted data using standard forms. Disagreements were solved by consensus including a third author. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. The primary outcome was failure to maintain clinical or endoscopic remission. Secondary outcomes included adverse events and withdrawal due to adverse events. Analyses were performed separately by type of control (placebo, or active comparator). Pooled risk ratios were calculated based on the fixed-effect model unless heterogeneity was shown. The GRADE approach was used to assess the overall quality of evidence for pooled outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: Six studies including 286 patients with ulcerative colitis were included in the review. The risk of bias was high in three of the studies due to lack of blinding. Azathioprine was shown to be significantly superior to placebo for maintenance of remission. Fourty-four per cent (51/115) of azathioprine patients failed to maintain remission compared to 65% (76/117) of placebo patients (4 studies, 232 patients; RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.86). A GRADE analysis rated the overall quality of the evidence for this outcome as low due to risk of bias and imprecision (sparse data). Two trials that compared 6-mercaptopurine to mesalazine, or azathioprine to sulfasalazine showed significant heterogeneity and thus were not pooled. Fifty per cent (7/14) of 6-mercaptopurine patients failed to maintain remission compared to 100% (8/8) of mesalamine patients (1 study, 22 patients; RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.90). Fifty-eight per cent (7/12) of azathioprine patients failed to maintain remission compared to 38% (5/13) of sulfasalazine patients (1 study, 25 patients; RR 1.52, 95% CI 0.66 to 3.50). One small study found that 6-mercaptopurine was superior to methotrexate for maintenance of remission. In the study, 50% (7/14) of 6-mercaptopurine patients and 92% (11/12) of methotrexate patients failed to maintain remission (1 study, 26 patients; RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.95). All of the studies which used active comparators were open label. When placebo and active comparator studies were pooled to assess adverse events, there was no statistically significant difference between azathioprine and control in the incidence of adverse events. Nine per cent (11/127) of azathioprine patients experienced at least one adverse event compared to 2% (3/130) of placebo patients (5 studies, 257 patients; RR 2.82, 95% CI 0.99 to 8.01). Patients receiving azathioprine were at significantly increased risk of withdrawing due to adverse events. Eight per cent (8/101) of azathioprine patients withdrew due to adverse events compared to 0% (0/98) of control patients (5 studies, 199 patients; RR 5.43, 95% CI 1.02 to 28.75). Adverse events related to study medication included acute pancreatitis (3 cases) and significant bone marrow suppression (5 cases). Deaths, opportunistic infection or neoplasia were not reported. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Azathioprine therapy appears to be more effective than placebo for maintenance of remission in ulcerative colitis. Azathioprine or 6-mercaptopurine may be effective as maintenance therapy for patients who have failed or cannot tolerate mesalazine or sulfasalazine and for patients who require repeated courses of steroids. More research is needed to evaluate superiority over standard maintenance therapy, especially in the light of a potential for adverse events from azathioprine. This review updates the existing review of azathioprine and 6-mercaptopurine for maintenance of remission in ulcerative colitis which was published in the Cochrane Library (Issue 1, 2007).

Psychological therapies for people with borderline personality disorder.

BACKGROUND: Psychotherapy is regarded as the first-line treatment for people with borderline personality disorder. In recent years, several disorder-specific interventions have been developed. This is an update of a review published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews in 2006. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of psychological interventions for borderline personality disorder (BPD). SEARCH METHODS: We searched the following databases: CENTRAL 2010(3), MEDLINE (1950 to October 2010), EMBASE (1980 to 2010, week 39), ASSIA (1987 to November 2010), BIOSIS (1985 to October 2010), CINAHL (1982 to October 2010), Dissertation Abstracts International (31 January 2011), National Criminal Justice Reference Service Abstracts (15 October 2010), PsycINFO (1872 to October Week 1 2010), Science Citation Index (1970 to 10 October 2010), Social Science Citation Index (1970 to 10 October 2010), Sociological Abstracts (1963 to October 2010), ZETOC (15 October 2010) and the metaRegister of Controlled Trials (15 October 2010). In addition, we searched Dissertation Abstracts International in January 2011 and ICTRP in August 2011. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised studies with samples of patients with BPD comparing a specific psychotherapeutic intervention against a control intervention without any specific mode of action or against a comparative specific psychotherapeutic intervention. Outcomes included overall BPD severity, BPD symptoms (DSM-IV criteria), psychopathology associated with but not specific to BPD, attrition and adverse effects. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected studies, assessed the risk of bias in the studies and extracted data. MAIN RESULTS: Twenty-eight studies involving a total of 1804 participants with BPD were included. Interventions were classified as comprehensive psychotherapies if they included individual psychotherapy as a substantial part of the treatment programme, or as non-comprehensive if they did not.Among comprehensive psychotherapies, dialectical behaviour therapy (DBT), mentalisation-based treatment in a partial hospitalisation setting (MBT-PH), outpatient MBT (MBT-out), transference-focused therapy (TFP), cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), dynamic deconstructive psychotherapy (DDP), interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT) and interpersonal therapy for BPD (IPT-BPD) were tested against a control condition. Direct comparisons of comprehensive psychotherapies included DBT versus client-centered therapy (CCT); schema-focused therapy (SFT) versus TFP; SFT versus SFT plus telephone availability of therapist in case of crisis (SFT+TA); cognitive therapy (CT) versus CCT, and CT versus IPT.Non-comprehensive psychotherapeutic interventions comprised DBT-group skills training only (DBT-ST), emotion regulation group therapy (ERG), schema-focused group therapy (SFT-G), systems training for emotional predictability and problem solving for borderline personality disorder (STEPPS), STEPPS plus individual therapy (STEPPS+IT), manual-assisted cognitive treatment (MACT) and psychoeducation (PE). The only direct comparison of an non-comprehensive psychotherapeutic intervention against another was MACT versus MACT plus therapeutic assessment (MACT+). Inpatient treatment was examined in one study where DBT for PTSD (DBT-PTSD) was compared with a waiting list control. No trials were identified for cognitive analytical therapy (CAT).Data were sparse for individual interventions, and allowed for meta-analytic pooling only for DBT compared with treatment as usual (TAU) for four outcomes. There were moderate to large statistically significant effects indicating a beneficial effect of DBT over TAU for anger (n = 46, two RCTs; standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.43 to -0.22; I(2) = 0%), parasuicidality (n = 110, three RCTs; SMD -0.54, 95% CI -0.92 to -0.16; I(2) = 0%) and mental health (n = 74, two RCTs; SMD 0.65, 95% CI 0.07 to 1.24 I(2) = 30%). There was no indication of statistical superiority of DBT over TAU in terms of keeping participants in treatment (n = 252, five RCTs; risk ratio 1.25, 95% CI 0.54 to 2.92).All remaining findings were based on single study estimates of effect. Statistically significant between-group differences for comparisons of psychotherapies against controls were observed for BPD core pathology and associated psychopathology for the following interventions: DBT, DBT-PTSD, MBT-PH, MBT-out, TFP and IPT-BPD. IPT was only indicated as being effective in the treatment of associated depression. No statistically significant effects were found for CBT and DDP interventions on either outcome, with the effect sizes moderate for DDP and small for CBT. For comparisons between different comprehensive psychotherapies, statistically significant superiority was demonstrated for DBT over CCT (core and associated pathology) and SFT over TFP (BPD severity and treatment retention). There were also encouraging results for each of the non-comprehensive psychotherapeutic interventions investigated in terms of both core and associated pathology.No data were available for adverse effects of any psychotherapy. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There are indications of beneficial effects for both comprehensive psychotherapies as well as non-comprehensive psychotherapeutic interventions for BPD core pathology and associated general psychopathology. DBT has been studied most intensely, followed by MBT, TFP, SFT and STEPPS. However, none of the treatments has a very robust evidence base, and there are some concerns regarding the quality of individual studies. Overall, the findings support a substantial role for psychotherapy in the treatment of people with BPD but clearly indicate a need for replicatory studies.

Flexible semiparametric mode regression for time-to-event data.

The distribution of time-to-event outcomes is usually right-skewed. While for symmetric and moderately skewed data the mean and median are appropriate location measures, the mode is preferable for heavily skewed data as it better represents the center of the distribution. Mode regression has been introduced for uncensored data to model the relationship between covariates and the mode of the outcome. Starting from nonparametric kernel density based mode regression, we examine the use of inverse probability of censoring weights to extend mode regression to handle right-censored data. We add a semiparametric predictor to add further flexibility to the model and we construct a pseudo Akaike's information criterion to select the bandwidth and smoothing parameters. We use simulations to evaluate the performance of our proposed approach. We demonstrate the benefit of adding mode regression to one's toolbox for analyzing survival data on a pancreatic cancer data set from a prospectively maintained cancer registry.

Psychological interventions for inflammatory bowel disease: a systematic review and component network meta-analysis protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) often report psychological problems, unemployment, disability, sick leave and compromised quality of life. The effect of psychological interventions on health-related outcomes in IBD is controversial as previous reviews faced the obstacle of high heterogeneity among provided multimodular interventions. The heterogeneity can be addressed with network meta-analysis (NMA) and (multi)component NMA (CNMA). We aim to investigate whether psychological interventions can improve quality of life, clinical and social outcomes in IBD using NMA and CNMA. This is the study protocol. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will consider randomised, quasi-randomised and non-randomised controlled trials, including cluster randomised and cross-over trials with 2 months of minimum follow-up. The conditions to be studied comprise Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis in children, adolescents and adults. We will include any psychological intervention aiming to change the health status of the study participant.We will search Medline, Embase, Web of Science, CENTRAL, LILACS, Psyndex, PsycINFO, Google Scholar and trial registries from inception (the search will be updated before the review completion). Two authors will independently screen all references based on titles and abstracts. For data extraction, standard forms are developed and tested before extraction. All information will be assessed independently by at least two reviewers, and disagreements solved by consensus discussion or a third rater if necessary.The data synthesis will include a pairwise meta-analysis supported by meta-regression. We will conduct NMA (all treatments will constitute single nodes of the network) and CNMA (we will define all treatments as sums of core components, eg, cognitive +behaviour, or cognitive +behaviour + relaxation, and additionally consider interactions) using the R Package netmeta. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approval is required. Reports will include the final report to the funder, conference presentation, peer-reviewed publication and a patient report. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021250446.

Childhood onset inflammatory bowel disease: predictors of delayed diagnosis from the CEDATA German-language pediatric inflammatory bowel disease registry.

OBJECTIVES: To examine predictors of delayed diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease in children and adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A total of 2,436 patients (age 0-18 years) with Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, or unclassified colitis were included from 53 pediatric gastroenterologists. Predictors were examined with the proportional hazards model, presented as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals. HR < 1.0 represent factors associated with late diagnosis. RESULTS: Median time to diagnosis was 4 (2-8) months. Crohn's disease (HR 0.62; 0.56-0.68), and within Crohn's disease, ileal disease (HR 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 0.89) were associated with delayed diagnosis. Chances for early diagnosis increased with increasing age (HR 1.07 per year of age; 1.06 to 1.08). There was also an effect by center (HR 0.63, 0.52 to 0.67), but not by sex or country (Austria vs Germany). Growth failure was more common in those cases with delayed diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: There is still concern about delays in the diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease in the very young and in children with small bowel disease. Inequalities of care by region require further investigation.

Psychological interventions for treatment of inflammatory bowel disease.

BACKGROUND: The effect of psychological interventions in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) is controversial. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of psychological interventions (psychotherapy, patient education, relaxation techniques) on health related quality of life, coping, emotional state and disease activity in IBD. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the specialized register of the IBD/FBD Group, CENTRAL (Issue 5, 2010) and from inception to April 2010: Medline, Embase, LILACS, Psyndex, CINAHL, PsyInfo, CCMed, SOMED and Social SciSearch. Conference abstracts and reference lists were also checked. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized, quasi-randomized and non randomized controlled trials of psychological interventions in children or adults with IBD with a minimum follow up time of 2 months. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted and study quality was independently assessed by two raters. Pooled standardized mean differences (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a random effects model. MAIN RESULTS: Twenty-one studies were eligible for inclusion (1745 participants, 8 RCT, 4 QRCT, 8 NRCT; 19 in adults, 2 in adolescents). Most studies used multimodular approaches. The risk of bias was high for all studies.In adults, psychotherapy had no effect on quality of life at around 12 months (3 studies, 235 patients, SMD -0.07; 95% CI -0.33 to 0.19), emotional status (depression, 4 studies, 266 patients, SMD 0.03; 95% CI -0.22 to 0.27) or proportion of patients not in remission (5 studies, 287 patients, OR 0.85; 95% CI 0.48 to 1.48). Results were similar at 3 to 8 months. There was no evidence for statistical heterogeneity or subgroup effects based on type of disease or intensity of the therapy. In adolescents, there were positive short term effects of psychotherapy on most outcomes assessed including quality of life (2 studies, 71 patients, SMD 0.70; 95% CI 0.21 to 1.18) and depression (1 study, 41 patients, SMD -0.62; 95% CI -1.25 to 0.01).Educational interventions were ineffective with respect to quality of life at 12 months (5 studies, 947 patients, SMD 0.11; 95% CI -0.02 to 0.24), depression (3 studies, 378 patients, SMD -0.08; 95% CI -0.29 to 0.12) and proportion of patients not in remission (3 studies, 434 patients, OR 1.00; 95% CI 0.65 to 1.53). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence for efficacy of psychological therapy in adult patients with IBD in general. In adolescents, psychological interventions may be beneficial, but the evidence is limited. Further evidence is needed to assess the efficacy of these therapies in subgroups identified as being in need of psychological interventions, and to identify what type of therapy maybe most useful.