Grow Where You Thrive, or Where Only You Can Survive? An Analysis of Performance Curve Evolution in a Clade with Diverse Habitat Affinities.

Performance curves are valuable tools for quantifying the fundamental niches of organisms and testing hypotheses about evolution, life-history trade-offs, and the drivers of variation in species' distribution patterns. Here, we present a novel Bayesian method for characterizing performance curves that facilitates comparisons among species. We then use this model to quantify and compare the hydrological performance curves of 14 different taxa in the genus Lasthenia, an ecologically diverse clade of plants that collectively occupy a variety of habitats with unique hydrological features, including seasonally flooded wetlands called vernal pools. We conducted a growth chamber experiment to measure each taxon's fitness across five hydrological treatments that ranged from severe drought to extended flooding, and we identified differences in hydrological performance curves that explain their associations with vernal pool and terrestrial habitats. Our analysis revealed that the distribution of vernal pool taxa in the field does not reflect their optimal hydrological environments: all taxa, regardless of habitat affinity, have highest fitness under similar hydrological conditions of saturated soil without submergence. We also found that a taxon's relative position across flood gradients within vernal pools is best predicted by the height of its performance curve. These results demonstrate the utility of our approach for generating insights into when and how performance curves evolve among taxa as they diversify into distinct environments. To facilitate its use, the modeling framework has been developed into an R package.

A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of thermal performance in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower.

Evolutionary rescue can prevent populations from declining under climate change, and should be more likely at high-latitude, "leading" edges of species' ranges due to greater temperature anomalies and gene flow from warm-adapted populations. Using a resurrection study with seeds collected before and after a 7-year period of record warming, we tested for thermal adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower Mimulus cardinalis. We grew ancestors and descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations across eight temperatures. Despite recent climate anomalies, populations showed limited evolution of thermal performance curves. However, one southern population evolved a narrower thermal performance breadth by 1.31°C, which matches the direction and magnitude of the average decrease in seasonality experienced. Consistent with the climate variability hypothesis, thermal performance breadth increased with temperature seasonality across the species' geographic range. Inconsistent with performance trade-offs between low and high temperatures across populations, we did not detect a positive relationship between thermal optimum and mean temperature. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that evolutionary response to climate change is greatest at the leading edge, and suggest that the evolution of thermal performance is unlikely to rescue most populations from the detrimental effects of rapidly changing climate.