Cardiovascular Safety of Testosterone-Replacement Therapy.

BACKGROUND: The cardiovascular safety of testosterone-replacement therapy in middle-aged and older men with hypogonadism has not been determined. METHODS: In a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, noninferiority trial, we enrolled 5246 men 45 to 80 years of age who had preexisting or a high risk of cardiovascular disease and who reported symptoms of hypogonadism and had two fasting testosterone levels of less than 300 ng per deciliter. Patients were randomly assigned to receive daily transdermal 1.62% testosterone gel (dose adjusted to maintain testosterone levels between 350 and 750 ng per deciliter) or placebo gel. The primary cardiovascular safety end point was the first occurrence of any component of a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke, assessed in a time-to-event analysis. A secondary cardiovascular end point was the first occurrence of any component of the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or coronary revascularization, assessed in a time-to-event analysis. Noninferiority required an upper limit of less than 1.5 for the 95% confidence interval of the hazard ratio among patients receiving at least one dose of testosterone or placebo. RESULTS: The mean (±SD) duration of treatment was 21.7±14.1 months, and the mean follow-up was 33.0±12.1 months. A primary cardiovascular end-point event occurred in 182 patients (7.0%) in the testosterone group and in 190 patients (7.3%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.78 to 1.17; P<0.001 for noninferiority). Similar findings were observed in sensitivity analyses in which data on events were censored at various times after discontinuation of testosterone or placebo. The incidence of secondary end-point events or of each of the events of the composite primary cardiovascular end point appeared to be similar in the two groups. A higher incidence of atrial fibrillation, of acute kidney injury, and of pulmonary embolism was observed in the testosterone group. CONCLUSIONS: In men with hypogonadism and preexisting or a high risk of cardiovascular disease, testosterone-replacement therapy was noninferior to placebo with respect to the incidence of major adverse cardiac events. (Funded by AbbVie and others; TRAVERSE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03518034.).

Associations of Testosterone and Related Hormones With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality and Incident Cardiovascular Disease in Men : Individual Participant Data Meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Whether circulating sex hormones modulate mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in aging men is controversial. PURPOSE: To clarify associations of sex hormones with these outcomes. DATA SOURCES: Systematic literature review to July 2019, with bridge searches to March 2024. STUDY SELECTION: Prospective cohort studies of community-dwelling men with sex steroids measured using mass spectrometry and at least 5 years of follow-up. DATA EXTRACTION: Independent variables were testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), luteinizing hormone (LH), dihydrotestosterone (DHT), and estradiol concentrations. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, CVD death, and incident CVD events. Covariates included age, body mass index, marital status, alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity, hypertension, diabetes, creatinine concentration, ratio of total to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid medication use. DATA SYNTHESIS: Nine studies provided individual participant data (IPD) (255 830 participant-years). Eleven studies provided summary estimates (n = 24 109). Two-stage random-effects IPD meta-analyses found that men with baseline testosterone concentrations below 7.4 nmol/L (<213 ng/dL), LH concentrations above 10 IU/L, or estradiol concentrations below 5.1 pmol/L had higher all-cause mortality, and those with testosterone concentrations below 5.3 nmol/L (<153 ng/dL) had higher CVD mortality risk. Lower SHBG concentration was associated with lower all-cause mortality (median for quintile 1 [Q1] vs. Q5, 20.6 vs. 68.3 nmol/L; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.85 [95% CI, 0.77 to 0.95]) and lower CVD mortality (adjusted HR, 0.81 [CI, 0.65 to 1.00]). Men with lower baseline DHT concentrations had higher risk for all-cause mortality (median for Q1 vs. Q5, 0.69 vs. 2.45 nmol/L; adjusted HR, 1.19 [CI, 1.08 to 1.30]) and CVD mortality (adjusted HR, 1.29 [CI, 1.03 to 1.61]), and risk also increased with DHT concentrations above 2.45 nmol/L. Men with DHT concentrations below 0.59 nmol/L had increased risk for incident CVD events. LIMITATIONS: Observational study design, heterogeneity among studies, and imputation of missing data. CONCLUSION: Men with low testosterone, high LH, or very low estradiol concentrations had increased all-cause mortality. SHBG concentration was positively associated and DHT concentration was nonlinearly associated with all-cause and CVD mortality. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Medical Research Future Fund, Government of Western Australia, and Lawley Pharmaceuticals. (PROSPERO: CRD42019139668).

Insulin resistance during androgen deprivation therapy in men with prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in prostate cancer (PCa) has been associated with development of insulin resistance. However, the predominant site of insulin resistance remains unclear. METHODS: The ADT & Metabolism Study was a single-center, 24-week, prospective observational study that enrolled ADT-naive men without diabetes who were starting ADT for at least 24 weeks (ADT group, n = 42). The control group comprised men without diabetes with prior history of PCa who were in remission after prostatectomy (non-ADT group, n = 23). Prevalent diabetes mellitus was excluded in both groups using all three laboratory criteria defined in the American Diabetes Association guidelines. All participants were eugonadal at enrollment. The primary outcome was to elucidate the predominant site of insulin resistance (liver or skeletal muscle). Secondary outcomes included assessments of body composition, and hepatic and intramyocellular fat. Outcomes were assessed at baseline, 12, and 24 weeks. RESULTS: At 24 weeks, there was no change in hepatic (1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.10 to 4.43; p = .47) or skeletal muscle (-3.2; 95% CI, -7.07 to 0.66; p = .10) insulin resistance in the ADT group. No increase in hepatic or intramyocellular fat deposition or worsening of glucose was seen. These changes were mirrored by those observed in the non-ADT group. Men undergoing ADT gained 3.7 kg of fat mass. CONCLUSIONS: In men with PCa and no diabetes, 24 weeks of ADT did not change insulin resistance despite adverse body composition changes. These findings should be reassuring for treating physicians and for patients who are being considered for short-term ADT.

Defining Clinically Meaningful Cut Points for Leg Power Impairment Using Physical Performance in Older Adults: A Secondary Analysis From Boston RISE.

OBJECTIVE: To identify clinically meaningful thresholds of leg power impairment identified by the stair climb power test (SCPT). DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis using the baseline data from an observational cohort study. SETTING: The Boston Rehabilitative Impairment Study of the Elderly. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling older adults (N=413). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: SCPT and the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). RESULTS: Using the receiver operating characteristic curves and Youden's J statistics, the optimal threshold for the SCPT associated with mobility limitation as defined by an SPPB score ≤9 was 3.07 Watts/kg for men with a sensitivity of 74%, a specificity of 73% and, an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.78. For women, the optimal threshold was 2.59 Watts/kg with a sensitivity of 83%, a specificity of 69%, and an AUC value of 0.81. The classification and regression tree sensitivity analysis demonstrated similar thresholds, 2.88 Watts/kg and 2.53 Watts/kg for men and women, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified clinically meaningful thresholds of impairment for the SCPT for mobility limited older primary care patients. These thresholds may be used to inform rehabilitation care to improve functional mobility of older adults and should be validated in larger more representative clinical trials.

Factors Associated With Circulating Sex Hormones in Men : Individual Participant Data Meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Various factors modulate circulating testosterone in men, affecting interpretation of testosterone measurements. PURPOSE: To clarify factors associated with variations in sex hormone concentrations. DATA SOURCES: Systematic literature searches (to July 2019). STUDY SELECTION: Prospective cohort studies of community-dwelling men with total testosterone measured using mass spectrometry. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual participant data (IPD) (9 studies; n = 21 074) and aggregate data (2 studies; n = 4075). Sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health factors and concentrations of total testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), luteinizing hormone (LH), dihydrotestosterone, and estradiol were extracted. DATA SYNTHESIS: Two-stage random-effects IPD meta-analyses found a nonlinear association of testosterone with age, with negligible change among men aged 17 to 70 years (change per SD increase about the midpoint, -0.27 nmol/L [-7.8 ng/dL] [CI, -0.71 to 0.18 nmol/L {-20.5 to 5.2 ng/dL}]) and decreasing testosterone levels with age for men older than 70 years (-1.55 nmol/L [-44.7 ng/dL] [CI, -2.05 to -1.06 nmol/L {-59.1 to -30.6 ng/dL}]). Testosterone was inversely associated with body mass index (BMI) (change per SD increase, -2.42 nmol/L [-69.7 ng/dL] [CI, -2.70 to -2.13 nmol/L {-77.8 to -61.4 ng/dL}]). Testosterone concentrations were lower for men who were married (mean difference, -0.57 nmol/L [-16.4 ng/dL] [CI, -0.89 to -0.26 nmol/L {-25.6 to -7.5 ng/dL}]); undertook at most 75 minutes of vigorous physical activity per week (-0.51 nmol/L [-14.7 ng/dL] [CI, -0.90 to -0.13 nmol/L {-25.9 to -3.7 ng/dL}]); were former smokers (-0.34 nmol/L [-9.8 ng/dL] [CI, -0.55 to -0.12 nmol/L {-15.9 to -3.5 ng/dL}]); or had hypertension (-0.53 nmol/L [-15.3 ng/dL] [CI, -0.82 to -0.24 nmol/L {-23.6 to -6.9 ng/dL}]), cardiovascular disease (-0.35 nmol/L [-10.1 ng/dL] [CI, -0.55 to -0.15 nmol/L {-15.9 to -4.3 ng/dL}]), cancer (-1.39 nmol/L [-40.1 ng/dL] [CI, -1.79 to -0.99 nmol/L {-51.6 to -28.5 ng/dL}]), or diabetes (-1.43 nmol/L [-41.2 ng/dL] [CI, -1.65 to -1.22 nmol/L {-47.6 to -35.2 ng/dL}]). Sex hormone-binding globulin was directly associated with age and inversely associated with BMI. Luteinizing hormone was directly associated with age in men older than 70 years. LIMITATION: Cross-sectional analysis, heterogeneity between studies and in timing of blood sampling, and imputation for missing data. CONCLUSION: Multiple factors are associated with variation in male testosterone, SHBG, and LH concentrations. Reduced testosterone and increased LH concentrations may indicate impaired testicular function after age 70 years. Interpretation of individual testosterone measurements should account particularly for age older than 70 years, obesity, diabetes, and cancer. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Medical Research Future Fund, Government of Western Australia, and Lawley Pharmaceuticals. (PROSPERO: CRD42019139668).

A Randomized Trial of a Multifactorial Strategy to Prevent Serious Fall Injuries.

BACKGROUND: Injuries from falls are major contributors to complications and death in older adults. Despite evidence from efficacy trials that many falls can be prevented, rates of falls resulting in injury have not declined. METHODS: We conducted a pragmatic, cluster-randomized trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a multifactorial intervention that included risk assessment and individualized plans, administered by specially trained nurses, to prevent fall injuries. A total of 86 primary care practices across 10 health care systems were randomly assigned to the intervention or to enhanced usual care (the control) (43 practices each). The participants were community-dwelling adults, 70 years of age or older, who were at increased risk for fall injuries. The primary outcome, assessed in a time-to-event analysis, was the first serious fall injury, adjudicated with the use of participant report, electronic health records, and claims data. We hypothesized that the event rate would be lower by 20% in the intervention group than in the control group. RESULTS: The demographic and baseline characteristics of the participants were similar in the intervention group (2802 participants) and the control group (2649 participants); the mean age was 80 years, and 62.0% of the participants were women. The rate of a first adjudicated serious fall injury did not differ significantly between the groups, as assessed in a time-to-first-event analysis (events per 100 person-years of follow-up, 4.9 in the intervention group and 5.3 in the control group; hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.06; P = 0.25). The rate of a first participant-reported fall injury was 25.6 events per 100 person-years of follow-up in the intervention group and 28.6 events per 100 person-years of follow-up in the control group (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.99; P = 0.004). The rates of hospitalization or death were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: A multifactorial intervention, administered by nurses, did not result in a significantly lower rate of a first adjudicated serious fall injury than enhanced usual care. (Funded by the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute and others; STRIDE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02475850.).

Association of Loneliness With Change in Physical and Emotional Health of Older Adults During the COVID-19 Shutdown.

OBJECTIVES: To examine factors influencing loneliness and the effect of loneliness on physical and emotional health, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Prospective, observational cohort. SETTING: Community-dwelling participants. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults (n = 238) enrolled in a longitudinal study. MEASUREMENTS: Interviews were completed July-December 2020. Loneliness was measured with the UCLA 3-item loneliness scale. Data including age, marriage, education, cognitive functioning, functional impairment, vision or hearing impairment, depression, anxiety, medical comorbidity, social network size, technology use, and activity engagement were collected. Health outcomes included self-rated health, and physical and mental composites from the 12-item Short Form Survey. Physical function was measured by a PROMIS-scaled composite score. RESULTS: Thirty-nine (16.4%) participants reported loneliness. Vulnerability factors for loneliness included age (RR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14); impairment with instrumental activities of daily living (RR = 2.08, 95% CI 1.14-3.80); vision impairment (RR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.10-3.97); depression (RR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.25-1.43); and anxiety (RR = 1.92, 95% CI 1.55-2.39). Significant resilience factors included high cognitive functioning (RR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.83-0.94); large social network size (RR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.96); technology use (RR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.73-0.90); and social and physical activity engagement (RR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.98). Interaction analyses showed that larger social network size moderated the effect of loneliness on physical function (protective interaction effect, RR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.15-1.13, p <.01), and activity engagement moderated the effect of loneliness on mental health (protective interaction effect, RR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.25-1.05, p <.001). CONCLUSIONS: Resilience factors may mitigate the adverse health outcomes associated with loneliness. Interventions to enhance resilience may help to diminish the detrimental effects of loneliness and hold great importance for vulnerable older adults.

One-year Medicare costs associated with delirium in older hospitalized patients with and without Alzheimer's disease dementia and related disorders.

INTRODUCTION: One-year health-care costs associated with delirium in older hospitalized patients with and without Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) have not been examined previously. METHODS: Medicare costs were determined prospectively at discharge, and at 30, 90, and 365 days in a cohort (n = 311) of older adults after hospital admission. RESULTS: Seventy-six (24%) patients had ADRD and were more likely to develop delirium (51% vs. 24%, P < 0.001) and die within 1 year (38% vs. 21%, P = 0.002). In ADRD patients with versus without delirium, adjusted mean difference in costs associated with delirium were $34,828; most of the excess costs were incurred between 90 and 365 days (P = 0.03). In non-ADRD patients, delirium was associated with increased costs at all timepoints. Excess costs associated with delirium in ADRD patients increased progressively over 1 year, whereas in non-ADRD patients the increase was consistent across time periods. DISCUSSION: Our findings highlight the complexity of health-care costs for ADRD patients who develop delirium, a potentially preventable source of expenditures. HIGHLIGHTS: Novel examination of health-care costs of delirium in persons with and without Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). Increased 1-year costs of $34,828 in ADRD patients with delirium (vs. without). Increased costs for delirium in ADRD occur later during the 365-day study period. For ADRD patients, cost differences between those with and without delirium increased over 1 year. For non-ADRD patients, the parallel cost differences were consistent over time.

Parental Education and Delirium Risk after Surgery in Older Adults.

OBJECTIVES: Efforts to conceptualize risk factors for postoperative delirium in older adults have focused on the time proximate to the episode, but how early-life exposures influence delirium risk is poorly understood. METHODS: An observational cohort of 547 patients aged 70+undergoing major non-cardiac surgery at two academic medical centers in Boston. Demographic characteristics, cognition, parental education, health, and participation in cognitively stimulating activities were assessed prior to surgery. Delirium incidence and severity were measured daily during hospitalization. RESULTS: Higher paternal education was associated with significantly lower incidence of delirium (X2(1, N =547)=8.35, p <.001; odds ratio OR=.93, 95% CI, .87 to .98) and inversely associated with delirium severity (r(545)=-.13, p <.001). Higher maternal education was associated with lower delirium incidence but did not reach statistical significance. The effect of paternal education on delirium incidence was independent of the patient's education, estimated premorbid intelligence, medical comorbidities, neighborhood disadvantage, and participation in cognitively stimulating activities (X2(2, N =547)=31.22, p <.001). CONCLUSIONS: Examining early-life exposures may yield unique insights into the risks and pathogenesis of delirium. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Evaluating long-term factors that increase vulnerability to delirium may improve our ability to calculate risk. It may guide clinical decision-making and inform pre- and post-operative recommendations.

Effects of long-term testosterone treatment on cardiovascular outcomes in men with hypogonadism: Rationale and design of the TRAVERSE study.

BACKGROUND: Testosterone exerts some effects on the cardiovascular system that could be considered beneficial; some other effects may potentially increase the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. Neither the long-term efficacy nor safety of testosterone treatment has been studied in an adequately-powered randomized trial. METHODS: The Testosterone Replacement therapy for Assessment of long-term Vascular Events and efficacy ResponSE in hypogonadal men (TRAVERSE) study is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group, non-inferiority, multicenter study. Eligible participants are men, 45 to 80 years, with serum testosterone concentration <300 ng/dL and hypogonadal symptoms, who have evidence pre-existing CV disease or increased risk of CV disease. Approximately 6,000 subjects will be randomized to either 1.62% transdermal testosterone gel or a matching placebo gel daily for an anticipated duration of up to 5 years. The primary outcome is CV safety defined by the major adverse CV event composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or death due to CV causes. The trial will continue until at least 256 adjudicated major adverse CV event endpoints have occurred to assess whether the 95% (2-sided) upper confidence limit for a hazard ratio of 1.5 can be ruled out. Secondary endpoints include prostate safety defined as the incidence of adjudicated high grade prostate cancer and efficacy in domains of sexual function, bone fractures, depression, anemia, and diabetes. RESULTS: As of July 1, 2021, 5,076 subjects had been randomized. CONCLUSIONS: The TRAVERSE study will determine the CV safety and long-term efficacy of testosterone treatment in middle-aged and older men with hypogonadism with or at increased risk of CV disease.

Association Between Perioperative Medication Use and Postoperative Delirium and Cognition in Older Adults Undergoing Elective Noncardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative delirium is frequent in older adults and is associated with postoperative neurocognitive disorder (PND). Studies evaluating perioperative medication use and delirium have generally evaluated medications in aggregate and been poorly controlled; the association between perioperative medication use and PND remains unclear. We sought to evaluate the association between medication use and postoperative delirium and PND in older adults undergoing major elective surgery. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study of adults ≥70 years without dementia undergoing major elective surgery. Patients were interviewed preoperatively to determine home medication use. Postoperatively, daily hospital use of 7 different medication classes listed in guidelines as risk factors for delirium was collected; administration before delirium was verified. While hospitalized, patients were assessed daily for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method and a validated chart review method. Cognition was evaluated preoperatively and 1 month after surgery using a neurocognitive battery. The association between prehospital medication use and postoperative delirium was assessed using a generalized linear model with a log link function, controlling for age, sex, type of surgery, Charlson comorbidity index, and baseline cognition. The association between daily postoperative medication use (when class exposure ≥5%) and time to delirium was assessed using time-varying Cox models adjusted for age, sex, surgery type, Charlson comorbidity index, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-II score, and baseline cognition. Mediation analysis was utilized to evaluate the association between medication use, delirium, and cognitive change from baseline to 1 month. RESULTS: Among 560 patients enrolled, 134 (24%) developed delirium during hospitalization. The multivariable analyses revealed no significant association between prehospital benzodiazepine (relative risk [RR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-2.44), beta-blocker (RR, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.94-2.05), NSAID (RR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.77-1.62), opioid (RR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.82-1.82), or statin (RR, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.92-1.95) exposure and delirium. Postoperative hospital benzodiazepine use (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 3.23; 95% CI, 2.10-4.99) was associated with greater delirium. Neither postoperative hospital antipsychotic (aHR, 1.48; 95% CI, 0.74-2.94) nor opioid (aHR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.62-1.11) use before delirium was associated with delirium. Antipsychotic use (either presurgery or postsurgery) was associated with a 0.34 point (standard error, 0.16) decrease in general cognitive performance at 1 month through its effect on delirium (P = .03), despite no total effect being observed. CONCLUSIONS: Administration of benzodiazepines to older adults hospitalized after major surgery is associated with increased postoperative delirium. Association between inhospital, postoperative medication use and cognition at 1 month, independent of delirium, was not detected.

Self-Reported Head Trauma Predicts Poor Dual Task Gait in Retired National Football League Players.

OBJECTIVE: Symptomatic head trauma associated with American-style football (ASF) has been linked to brain pathology, along with physical and mental distress in later life. However, the longer-term effects of such trauma on objective metrics of cognitive-motor function remain poorly understood. We hypothesized that ASF-related symptomatic head trauma would predict worse gait performance, particularly during dual task conditions (ie, walking while performing an additional cognitive task), in later life. METHODS: Sixty-six retired professional ASF players aged 29 to 75 years completed a health and wellness questionnaire. They also completed a validated smartphone-based assessment in their own homes, during which gait was monitored while they walked normally and while they performed a verbalized serial-subtraction cognitive task. RESULTS: Participants who reported more symptomatic head trauma, defined as the total number of impacts to the head or neck followed by concussion-related symptoms, exhibited greater dual task cost (ie, percentage increase) to stride time variability (ie, the coefficient of variation of mean stride time). Those who reported ≥1 hit followed by loss of consciousness, compared to those who did not, also exhibited greater dual task costs to this metric. Relationships between reported trauma and dual task costs were independent of age, body mass index, National Football League career duration, and history of musculoskeletal surgery. Symptomatic head trauma was not correlated with average stride times in either walking condition. INTERPRETATION: Remote, smartphone-based assessments of dual task walking may be utilized to capture meaningful data sensitive to the long-term impact of symptomatic head trauma in former professional ASF players and other contact sport athletes. ANN NEUROL 2020;87:75-83.

Machine Learning to Develop and Internally Validate a Predictive Model for Post-operative Delirium in a Prospective, Observational Clinical Cohort Study of Older Surgical Patients.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to assess the performance of machine learning methods to predict post-operative delirium using a prospective clinical cohort. METHODS: We analyzed data from an observational cohort study of 560 older adults (≥ 70 years) without dementia undergoing major elective non-cardiac surgery. Post-operative delirium was determined by the Confusion Assessment Method supplemented by a medical chart review (N = 134, 24%). Five machine learning algorithms and a standard stepwise logistic regression model were developed in a training sample (80% of participants) and evaluated in the remaining hold-out testing sample. We evaluated three overlapping feature sets, restricted to variables that are readily available or minimally burdensome to collect in clinical settings, including interview and medical record data. A large feature set included 71 potential predictors. A smaller set of 18 features was selected by an expert panel using a consensus process, and this smaller feature set was considered with and without a measure of pre-operative mental status. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was higher in the large feature set conditions (range of AUC, 0.62-0.71 across algorithms) versus the selected feature set conditions (AUC range, 0.53-0.57). The restricted feature set with mental status had intermediate AUC values (range, 0.53-0.68). In the full feature set condition, algorithms such as gradient boosting, cross-validated logistic regression, and neural network (AUC = 0.71, 95% CI 0.58-0.83) were comparable with a model developed using traditional stepwise logistic regression (AUC = 0.69, 95% CI 0.57-0.82). Calibration for all models and feature sets was poor. CONCLUSIONS: We developed machine learning prediction models for post-operative delirium that performed better than chance and are comparable with traditional stepwise logistic regression. Delirium proved to be a phenotype that was difficult to predict with appreciable accuracy.

Multitarget Transcranial Electrical Stimulation for Freezing of Gait: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Treatments of freezing of gait (FOG) in Parkinson's disease are suboptimal. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of multiple sessions of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) targeting the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and primary motor cortex (M1) on FOG. METHODS: Seventy-seven individuals with Parkinson's disease and FOG were enrolled in a double-blinded randomized trial. tDCS and sham interventions comprised 10 sessions over 2 weeks followed by five once-weekly sessions. FOG-provoking test performance (primary outcome), functional outcomes, and self-reported FOG severity were assessed. RESULTS: Primary analyses demonstrated no advantage for tDCS in the FOG-provoking test. In secondary analyses, tDCS, compared with sham, decreased self-reported FOG severity and increased daily living step counts. Among individuals with mild-to-moderate FOG severity, tDCS improved FOG-provoking test time and self-report of FOG. CONCLUSIONS: Multisession tDCS targeting the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and M1 did not improve laboratory-based FOG-provoking test performance. Improvements observed in participants with mild-to-moderate FOG severity warrant further investigation. © 2021 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Estimation of ascertainment bias and its effect on power in clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes.

While the gold standard for clinical trials is to blind all parties-participants, researchers, and evaluators-to treatment assignment, this is not always a possibility. When some or all of the above individuals know the treatment assignment, this leaves the study open to the introduction of postrandomization biases. In the Strategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop Confidence in Elders (STRIDE) trial, we were presented with the potential for the unblinded clinicians administering the treatment, as well as the individuals enrolled in the study, to introduce ascertainment bias into some but not all events comprising the primary outcome. In this article, we present ways to estimate the ascertainment bias for a time-to-event outcome, and discuss its impact on the overall power of a trial vs changing of the outcome definition to a more stringent unbiased definition that restricts attention to measurements less subject to potentially differential assessment. We found that for the majority of situations, it is better to revise the definition to a more stringent definition, as was done in STRIDE, even though fewer events may be observed.

A case study of ascertainment bias for the primary outcome in the Strategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop Confidence in Elders (STRIDE) trial.

BACKGROUND/AIM: In clinical trials, there is potential for bias from unblinded observers that may influence ascertainment of outcomes. This issue arose in the Strategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop Confidence in Elders trial, a cluster randomized trial to test a multicomponent intervention versus enhanced usual care (control) to prevent serious fall injuries, originally defined as a fall injury leading to medical attention. An unblinded nurse falls care manager administered the intervention, while the usual care arm did not involve contact with a falls care manager. Thus, there was an opportunity for falls care managers to refer participants reporting falls to seek medical attention. Since this type of observer bias could not occur in the usual care arm, there was potential for additional falls to be reported in the intervention arm, leading to dilution of the intervention effect and a reduction in study power. We describe the clinical basis for ascertainment bias, the statistical approach used to assess it, and its effect on study power. METHODS: The prespecified interim monitoring plan included a decision algorithm for assessing ascertainment bias and adapting (revising) the primary outcome definition, if necessary. The original definition categorized serious fall injuries requiring medical attention into Type 1 (fracture other than thoracic/lumbar vertebral, joint dislocation, cut requiring closure) and Type 2 (head injury, sprain or strain, bruising or swelling, other). The revised definition, proposed by the monitoring plan, excluded Type 2 injuries that did not necessarily require an overnight hospitalization since these would be most subject to bias. These injuries were categorized into those with (Type 2b) and without (Type 2c) medical attention. The remaining Type 2a injuries required medical attention and an overnight hospitalization. We used the ratio of 2b/(2b + 2c) in intervention versus control as a measure of ascertainment bias; ratios > 1 indicated the likelihood of falls care manager bias. We determined the effect of ascertainment bias on study power for the revised (Types 1 and 2a) versus original definition (Types 1, 2a, and 2b). RESULTS: The estimate of ascertainment bias was 1.14 (95% confidence interval: 0.98, 1.30), providing evidence of the likelihood of falls care manager bias. We estimated that this bias diluted the hazard ratio from the hypothesized 0.80 to 0.86 and reduced power to under 80% for the original primary outcome definition. In contrast, adapting the revised definition maintained study power at nearly 90%. CONCLUSION: There was evidence of ascertainment bias in the Strategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop Confidence in Elders trial. The decision to adapt the primary outcome definition reduced the likelihood of this bias while preserving the intervention effect and study power.

Predictors of Caregiver Burden in Delirium: Patient and Caregiver Factors.

The current study examined the association of patient factors, patient/caregiver relationships, and living arrangements with caregiver burden due to delirium. The sample included a subset (N = 207) of hospitalized medical and surgical patients (aged >70 years) enrolled in the Better Assessment of Illness Study and their care-givers. The majority of caregivers were female (57%) and married (43%), and 47% reported living with the patient. Delirium occurred in 22% of the sample, and delirium severity, pre-existing cognitive impairment, and impairment of any activities of daily living (ADL) were associated with higher caregiver burden. However, only the ADL impairment of needing assistance with transfers was independently significantly associated with higher burden (p < 0.01). Child, child-in-law, and other relatives living with or apart from the patient reported significantly higher caregiver burden compared to spouse/partners (p < 0.01), indicating caregiver relationship and living arrangement are associated with burden. Future studies should examine additional factors contributing to delirium burden. [Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 47(9), 32-39.].

New Delirium Severity Indicators: Generation and Internal Validation in the Better Assessment of Illness (BASIL) Study.

BACKGROUND: Delirium is a common and preventable geriatric syndrome. Moving beyond the binary classification of delirium present/absent, delirium severity represents a potentially important outcome for evaluating preventive and treatment interventions and tracking the course of patients. Although several delirium severity assessment tools currently exist, most have been developed in the absence of advanced measurement methodology and have not been evaluated with rigorous validation studies. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to report our development of new delirium severity items and the results of item reduction and selection activities guided by psychometric analysis of data derived from a field study. METHODS: Building on our literature review of delirium instruments and expert panel process to identify domains of delirium severity, we adapted items from existing delirium severity instruments and generated new items. We then fielded these items among a sample of 352 older hospitalized patients. RESULTS: We used an expert panel process and psychometric data analysis techniques to narrow a set of 303 potential items to 17 items for use in a new delirium severity instrument. The 17-item set demonstrated good internal validity and favorable psychometric characteristics relative to comparator instruments, including the Confusion Assessment Method - Severity (CAM-S) score, the Delirium Rating Scale Revised 98, and the Memorial Delirium Assessment Scale. CONCLUSION: We more fully conceptualized delirium severity and identified characteristics of an ideal delirium severity instrument. These characteristics include an instrument that is relatively quick to administer, is easy to use by raters with minimal training, and provides a severity rating with good content validity, high internal consistency reliability, and broad domain coverage across delirium symptoms. We anticipate these characteristics to be represented in the subsequent development of our final delirium severity instrument.

Mechanisms responsible for reduced erythropoiesis during androgen deprivation therapy in men with prostate cancer.

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is a mainstay of treatment for prostate cancer (PCa). As androgens stimulate erythropoiesis, ADT is associated with a reduction in hematocrit, which in turn contributes to fatigue and related morbidity. However, the mechanisms involved in ADT-induced reduction in erythropoiesis remain unclear. We conducted a 6-mo prospective cohort study and enrolled men with PCa about to undergo ADT (ADT-Group) and a control group of men who had previously undergone prostatectomy for localized PCa and were in remission (Non-ADT Group). All participants had normal testosterone levels at baseline. Fasting blood samples were collected at baseline, 12 wk, and 24 wk after initiation of ADT; samples were obtained at the same intervals from enrollment in the Non-ADT group. Blood count, iron studies, erythropoietin, erythroferrone, and hepcidin levels were measured. Seventy participants formed the analytical sample (31 ADT, 39 Non-ADT). ADT was associated with a significant reduction in erythrocyte count (estimated mean difference = -0.2×106 cells/µl, 95%CI = -0.3 to -0.1×106 cells/µl, P < 0.001), hematocrit (-1.9%, 95%CI = -2.7 to -1.1%, P < 0.001), and hemoglobin (-0.6 g/dl, 95%CI = -0.8 to -0.3 g/dl, P < 0.001). Serum hepcidin concentration increased in the ADT-group (18 ng/ml, P < 0.001); however, iron concentrations did not change (-1.1 µg/dl, P = 0.837). Ferritin levels increased in men on ADT (60 ng/ml, P < 0.001). Iron binding capacity, transferrin saturation, erythroferrone, and erythropoietin did not change. Nine men undergoing ADT developed new-onset anemia. In conclusion, reduced proliferation of marrow erythroid progenitors leads to ADT-induced reduction in erythropoiesis. Future studies should evaluate the role of selective androgen receptor modulators in the treatment of ADT-induced anemia.

Correction for retest effects across repeated measures of cognitive functioning: a longitudinal cohort study of postoperative delirium.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have compared methods to correct for retest effects or practice effects in settings where an acute event could influence test performance, such as major surgery. Our goal in this study was to evaluate the use of different methods to correct for the effects of practice or retest on repeated test administration in the context of an observational study of older adults undergoing elective surgery. METHODS: In a cohort of older surgical patients (N = 560) and a non-surgical comparison group (N = 118), we compared changes on repeated cognitive testing using a summary measure of general cognitive performance (GCP) between patients who developed post-operative delirium and those who did not. Surgical patients were evaluated pre-operatively and at 1, 2, 6, 12, and 18 months following surgery. Inferences from linear mixed effects models using four approaches were compared: 1) no retest correction, 2) mean-difference correction, 3) predicted-difference correction, and 4) model-based correction. RESULTS: Using Approaches 1 or 4, which use uncorrected data, both surgical groups appeared to improve or remain stable after surgery. In contrast, Approaches 2 and 3, which dissociate retest and surgery effects by using retest-adjusted GCP scores, revealed an acute decline in performance in both surgical groups followed by a recovery to baseline. Relative differences between delirium groups were generally consistent across all approaches: the delirium group showed greater short- and longer-term decline compared to the group without delirium, although differences were attenuated after 2 months. Standard errors and model fit were also highly consistent across approaches. CONCLUSION: All four approaches would lead to nearly identical inferences regarding relative mean differences between groups experiencing a key post-operative outcome (delirium) but produced qualitatively different impressions of absolute performance differences following surgery. Each of the four retest correction approaches analyzed in this study has strengths and weakness that should be evaluated in the context of future studies. Retest correction is critical for interpretation of absolute cognitive performance measured over time and, consequently, for advancing our understanding of the effects of exposures such as surgery, hospitalization, acute illness, and delirium.