Long Exercise Test in Periodic Paralysis: A Bayesian Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The long exercise test (LET) is used to assess the diagnosis of periodic paralysis (PP), but LET methodology and normal "cutoff" values vary. METHODS: To determine optimal LET methodology and cutoffs, we reviewed LET data (abductor digiti minimi motor response amplitude, area) from 55 patients with PP (32 genetically definite) and 125 controls. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed, and area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to compare (1) peak-to-nadir versus baseline-to-nadir methodologies and (2) amplitude versus area decrements. Using bayesian principles, we calculated optimal cutoff decrements that achieved 95% posttest probability of PP for various pretest probabilities (PreTPs). RESULTS: AUC was highest for peak-to-nadir methodology and equal for amplitude and area decrements. For PreTP ≤ 50%, optimal decrement cutoffs (peak-to-nadir) were > 40% (amplitude) or > 50% (area). DISCUSSION: For confirmation of PP, our data endorse the diagnostic utility of peak-to-nadir LET methodology using 40% amplitude or 50% area decrement cutoffs for PreTP ≤50%. Muscle Nerve 59:47-54, 2019.

Electrodiagnosis of ulnar neuropathy at the elbow (Une): a Bayesian approach.

INTRODUCTION: In ulnar neuropathy at the elbow (UNE), we determined how electrodiagnostic cutoffs [across-elbow ulnar motor conduction velocity slowing (AECV-slowing), drop in across-elbow vs. forearm CV (AECV-drop)] depend on pretest probability (PreTP). METHODS: Fifty clinically defined UNE patients and 50 controls underwent ulnar conduction testing recording abductor digiti minimi (ADM) and first dorsal interosseous (FDI), stimulating wrist, below-elbow, and 6-, 8-, and 10-cm more proximally. For various PreTPs of UNE, the cutoffs required to confirm UNE (defined as posttest probability = 95%) were determined with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and Bayes Theorem. RESULTS: On ROC and Bayesian analyses, the ADM 10-cm montage was optimal. For PreTP = 0.25, the confirmatory cutoffs were >23 m/s (AECV-drop), and <38 m/s (AECV-slowing); for PreTP = 0.75, they were much less conservative: >14 m/s, and <47 m/s, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: (1) In UNE, electrodiagnostic cutoffs are critically dependent on PreTP; rigid cutoffs are problematic. (2) AE distances should be standardized and at least 10 cm.