Data-driven prediction of continuous renal replacement therapy survival.

Continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) is a form of dialysis prescribed to severely ill patients who cannot tolerate regular hemodialysis. However, as the patients are typically very ill to begin with, there is always uncertainty whether they will survive during or after CRRT treatment. Because of outcome uncertainty, a large percentage of patients treated with CRRT do not survive, utilizing scarce resources and raising false hope in patients and their families. To address these issues, we present a machine learning-based algorithm to predict short-term survival in patients being initiated on CRRT. We use information extracted from electronic health records from patients who were placed on CRRT at multiple institutions to train a model that predicts CRRT survival outcome; on a held-out test set, the model achieves an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.848 (CI = 0.822-0.870). Feature importance, error, and subgroup analyses provide insight into bias and relevant features for model prediction. Overall, we demonstrate the potential for predictive machine learning models to assist clinicians in alleviating the uncertainty of CRRT patient survival outcomes, with opportunities for future improvement through further data collection and advanced modeling.

Prediction of Visual Field Progression with Baseline and Longitudinal Structural Measurements Using Deep Learning.

PURPOSE: Identifying glaucoma patients at high risk of progression based on widely available structural data is an unmet task in clinical practice. We test the hypothesis that baseline or serial structural measures can predict visual field (VF) progression with deep learning (DL). DESIGN: Development of a DL algorithm to predict VF progression. METHODS: 3,079 eyes (1,765 patients) with various types of glaucoma and ≥5 VFs, and ≥3 years of follow-up from a tertiary academic center were included. Serial VF mean deviation (MD) rates of change were estimated with linear-regression. VF progression was defined as negative MD slope with p<0.05. A Siamese Neural Network with ResNet-152 backbone pre-trained on ImageNet was designed to predict VF progression using serial optic-disc photographs (ODP), and baseline retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness. We tested the model on a separate dataset (427 eyes) with RNFL data from different OCT. The Main Outcome Measure was Area under ROC curve (AUC). RESULTS: Baseline average (SD) MD was 3.4 (4.9)dB. VF progression was detected in 900 eyes (29%). AUC (95% CI) for model incorporating baseline ODP and RNFL thickness was 0.813 (0.757-0.869). After adding the second and third ODPs, AUC increased to 0.860 and 0.894, respectively (p<0.027). This model also had highest AUC (0.911) for predicting fast progression (MD rate <1.0 dB/year). Model's performance was similar when applied to second dataset using RNFL data from another OCT device (AUC=0.893; 0.837-0.948). CONCLUSIONS: DL model predicted VF progression with clinically relevant accuracy using baseline RNFL thickness and serial ODPs and can be implemented as a clinical tool after further validation.

Data-driven prediction of continuous renal replacement therapy survival.

Continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) is a form of dialysis prescribed to severely ill patients who cannot tolerate regular hemodialysis. However, as the patients are typically very ill to begin with, there is always uncertainty as to whether they will survive during or after CRRT treatment. Because of outcome uncertainty, a large percentage of patients treated with CRRT do not survive, utilizing scarce resources and raising false hope in patients and their families. To address these issues, we present a machine-learning-based algorithm to predict if patients will survive after being treated with CRRT. We use information extracted from electronic health records from patients who were placed on CRRT at multiple institutions to train a model that predicts CRRT survival outcome; on a held-out test set, the model achieved an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.929 (CI=0.917-0.942). Feature importance, error, and subgroup analyses identified consistently, mean corpuscular volume as a driving feature for model predictions. Overall, we demonstrate the potential for predictive machine-learning models to assist clinicians in alleviating the uncertainty of CRRT patient survival outcomes, with opportunities for future improvement through further data collection and advanced modeling.

Prediction of Central Visual Field Measures From Macular OCT Volume Scans With Deep Learning.

Purpose: Predict central 10° global and local visual field (VF) measurements from macular optical coherence tomography (OCT) volume scans with deep learning (DL). Methods: This study included 1121 OCT volume scans and 10-2 VFs from 289 eyes (257 patients). Macular scans were used to estimate 10-2 VF mean deviation (MD), threshold sensitivities (TS), and total deviation (TD) values at 68 locations. A three-dimensional (3D) convolutional neural network based on the 3D DenseNet121 architecture was used for prediction. We compared DL predictions to those from baseline linear models. We carried out 10-fold stratified cross-validation to optimize generalizability. The performance of the DL and baseline models was compared based on correlations between ground truth and predicted VF measures and mean absolute error (MAE; ground truth - predicted values). Results: Average (SD) MD was -9.3 (7.7) dB. Average (SD) correlations between predicted and ground truth MD and MD MAE were 0.74 (0.09) and 3.5 (0.4) dB, respectively. Estimation accuracy deteriorated with worsening MD. Average (SD) Pearson correlations between predicted and ground truth TS and MAEs for DL and baseline model were 0.71 (0.05) and 0.52 (0.05) (P < 0.001) and 6.5 (0.6) and 7.5 (0.5) dB (P < 0.001), respectively. For TD, correlation (SD) and MAE (SD) for DL and baseline models were 0.69 (0.02) and 0.48 (0.05) (P < 0.001) and 6.1 (0.5) and 7.8 (0.5) dB (P < 0.001), respectively. Conclusions: Macular OCT volume scans can be used to predict global central VF parameters with clinically relevant accuracy. Translational Relevance: Macular OCT imaging may be used to confirm and supplement central VF findings using deep learning.

Prediction of visual field progression with serial optic disc photographs using deep learning.

AIM: We tested the hypothesis that visual field (VF) progression can be predicted with a deep learning model based on longitudinal pairs of optic disc photographs (ODP) acquired at earlier time points during follow-up. METHODS: 3919 eyes (2259 patients) with ≥2 ODPs at least 2 years apart, and ≥5 24-2 VF exams spanning ≥3 years of follow-up were included. Serial VF mean deviation (MD) rates of change were estimated starting at the fifth visit and subsequently by adding visits until final visit. VF progression was defined as a statistically significant negative slope at two consecutive visits and final visit. We built a twin-neural network with ResNet50-backbone. A pair of ODPs acquired up to a year before the VF progression date or the last VF in non-progressing eyes were included as input. Primary outcome measures were area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and model accuracy. RESULTS: The average (SD) follow-up time and baseline VF MD were 8.1 (4.8) years and -3.3 (4.9) dB, respectively. VF progression was identified in 761 eyes (19%). The median (IQR) time to progression in progressing eyes was 7.3 (4.5-11.1) years. The AUC and accuracy for predicting VF progression were 0.862 (0.812-0.913) and 80.0% (73.9%-84.6%). When only fast-progressing eyes were considered (MD rate < -1.0 dB/year), AUC increased to 0.926 (0.857-0.994). CONCLUSIONS: A deep learning model can predict subsequent glaucoma progression from longitudinal ODPs with clinically relevant accuracy. This model may be implemented, after validation, for predicting glaucoma progression in the clinical setting.