New land-use-change emissions indicate a declining CO2 airborne fraction.

About half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere and half are taken up by the land and ocean1. If the carbon uptake by land and ocean sinks becomes less efficient, for example, owing to warming oceans2 or thawing permafrost3, a larger fraction of anthropogenic emissions will remain in the atmosphere, accelerating climate change. Changes in the efficiency of the carbon sinks can be estimated indirectly by analysing trends in the airborne fraction, that is, the ratio between the atmospheric growth rate and anthropogenic emissions of CO2 (refs. 4-10). However, current studies yield conflicting results about trends in the airborne fraction, with emissions related to land use and land cover change (LULCC) contributing the largest source of uncertainty7,11,12. Here we construct a LULCC emissions dataset using visibility data in key deforestation zones. These visibility observations are a proxy for fire emissions13,14, which are - in turn - related to LULCC15,16. Although indirect, this provides a long-term consistent dataset of LULCC emissions, showing that tropical deforestation emissions increased substantially (0.16 Pg C decade-1) since the start of CO2 concentration measurements in 1958. So far, these emissions were thought to be relatively stable, leading to an increasing airborne fraction4,5. Our results, however, indicate that the CO2 airborne fraction has decreased by 0.014 ± 0.010 decade-1 since 1959. This suggests that the combined land-ocean sink has been able to grow at least as fast as anthropogenic emissions.

Effects of Tree-crop Farming on Land-cover Transitions in a Mosaic Landscape in the Eastern Region of Ghana.

Tree crops such as cocoa and oil palm are important to smallholders' livelihoods and national economies of tropical producer countries. Governments seek to expand tree-crop acreages and improve yields. Existing literature has analyzed socioeconomic and environmental effects of tree-crop expansion, but its spatial effects on the landscape are yet to be explored. This study aims to assess the effects of tree-crop farming on the composition and the extent of land-cover transitions in a mixed cocoa/oil palm landscape in Ghana. Land-cover maps of 1986 and 2015 produced through ISODATA, and maximum likelihood classification were validated with field reference, Google Earth data, and key respondent interviews. Post-classification change detection was conducted and the transition matrix analyzed using intensity analysis. Cocoa and oil palm areas have increased in extent by 8.9% and 11.2%, respectively, mainly at the expense of food-crop land and forest. The intensity of forest loss to both tree crops is at a lower intensity than the loss of food-crop land. There were transitions between cocoa and oil palm, but the gains in oil palm outweigh those of cocoa. Cocoa and oil palm have increased in area and dominance. The main cover types converted to tree-crop areas are food-crop land and off-reserve forest. This is beginning to have serious implications for food security and livelihood options that depend on ecosystem services provided by the mosaic landscape. Tree-crop policies should take account of the geographical distribution of tree-commodity production at landscape level and its implications for food production and ecosystems services.

Revealing turning points in ecosystem functioning over the Northern Eurasian agricultural frontier.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 has been a turning point in the World history that left a unique footprint on the Northern Eurasian ecosystems. Conducting large scale mapping of environmental change and separating between naturogenic and anthropogenic drivers is a difficult endeavor in such highly complex systems. In this research a piece-wise linear regression method was used for breakpoint detection in Rain-Use Efficiency (RUE) time series and a classification of ecosystem response types was produced. Supported by earth observation data, field data, and expert knowledge, this study provides empirical evidence regarding the occurrence of drastic changes in RUE (assessment of the timing, the direction and the significance of these changes) in Northern Eurasian ecosystems between 1982 and 2011. About 36% of the study area (3.4 million km(2) ) showed significant (P < 0.05) trends and/or turning points in RUE during the observation period. A large proportion of detected turning points in RUE occurred around the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and in the following years which were attributed to widespread agricultural land abandonment. Our study also showed that recurrent droughts deeply affected vegetation productivity throughout the observation period, with a general worsening of the drought conditions in recent years. Moreover, recent human-induced turning points in ecosystem functioning were detected and attributed to ongoing recultivation and change in irrigation practices in the Volgograd region, and to increased salinization and increased grazing intensity around Lake Balkhash. The ecosystem-state assessment method introduced here proved to be a valuable support that highlighted hotspots of potentially altered ecosystems and allowed for disentangling human from climatic disturbances.

Mapping the diversity of land uses following deforestation across Africa.

African forest are increasingly in decline as a result of land-use conversion due to human activities. However, a consistent and detailed characterization and mapping of land-use change that results in forest loss is not available at the spatial-temporal resolution and thematic levels suitable for decision-making at the local and regional scales; so far they have only been provided on coarser scales and restricted to humid forests. Here we present the first high-resolution (5 m) and continental-scale mapping of land use following deforestation in Africa, which covers an estimated 13.85% of the global forest area, including humid and dry forests. We use reference data for 15 different land-use types from 30 countries and implement an active learning framework to train a deep learning model for predicting land-use following deforestation with an F1-score of [Formula: see text] for the whole of Africa. Our results show that the causes of forest loss vary by region. In general, small-scale cropland is the dominant driver of forest loss in Africa, with hotspots in Madagascar and DRC. In addition, commodity crops such as cacao, oil palm, and rubber are the dominant drivers of forest loss in the humid forests of western and central Africa, forming an "arc of commodity crops" in that region. At the same time, the hotspots for cashew are found to increasingly dominate in the dry forests of both western and south-eastern Africa, while larger hotspots for large-scale croplands were found in Nigeria and Zambia. The increased expansion of cacao, cashew, oil palm, rubber, and large-scale croplands observed in humid and dry forests of western and south-eastern Africa suggests they are vulnerable to future land-use changes by commodity crops, thus creating challenges for achieving the zero deforestation supply chains, support REDD+ initiatives, and towards sustainable development goals.

StrucNet: a global network for automated vegetation structure monitoring.

Climate change and increasing human activities are impacting ecosystems and their biodiversity. Quantitative measurements of essential biodiversity variables (EBV) and essential climate variables are used to monitor biodiversity and carbon dynamics and evaluate policy and management interventions. Ecosystem structure is at the core of EBVs and carbon stock estimation and can help to inform assessments of species and species diversity. Ecosystem structure is also used as an indirect indicator of habitat quality and expected species richness or species community composition. Spaceborne measurements can provide large-scale insight into monitoring the structural dynamics of ecosystems, but they generally lack consistent, robust, timely and detailed information regarding their full three-dimensional vegetation structure at local scales. Here we demonstrate the potential of high-frequency ground-based laser scanning to systematically monitor structural changes in vegetation. We present a proof-of-concept high-temporal ecosystem structure time series of 5 years in a temperate forest using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). We also present data from automated high-temporal laser scanning that can allow upscaling of vegetation structure scanning, overcoming the limitations of a typically opportunistic TLS measurement approach. Automated monitoring will be a critical component to build a network of field monitoring sites that can provide the required calibration data for satellite missions to effectively monitor the structural dynamics of vegetation over large areas. Within this perspective, we reflect on how this network could be designed and discuss implementation pathways.

Assessment of Workflow Feature Selection on Forest LAI Prediction with Sentinel-2A MSI, Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI.

The European Space Agency (ESA)'s Sentinel-2A (S2A) mission is providing time series that allow the characterisation of dynamic vegetation, especially when combined with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/United States Geological Survey (USGS) Landsat 7 (L7) and Landsat 8 (L8) missions. Hybrid retrieval workflows combining non-parametric Machine Learning Regression Algorithms (MLRAs) and vegetation Radiative Transfer Models (RTMs) were proposed as fast and accurate methods to infer biophysical parameters such as Leaf Area Index (LAI) from these data streams. However, the exact design of optimal retrieval workflows is rarely discussed. In this study, the impact of five retrieval workflow features on LAI prediction performance of MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) observations was analysed over a Dutch beech forest site for a one-year period. The retrieval workflow features were the (1) addition of prior knowledge of leaf chemistry (two alternatives), (2) the choice of RTM (two alternatives), (3) the addition of Gaussian noise to RTM produced training data (four and five alternatives), (4) possibility of using Sun Zenith Angle (SZA) as an additional MLRA training feature (two alternatives), and (5) the choice of MLRA (six alternatives). The features were varied in a full grid resulting in 960 inversion models in order to find the overall impact on performance as well as possible interactions among the features. A combination of a Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) time series with litter-trap derived LAI served as independent validation. The addition of absolute noise had the most significant impact on prediction performance. It improved the median prediction Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 1.08 m2 m-2 when 5 % noise was added compared to inversions with 0 % absolute noise. The choice of the MLRA was second most important in terms of median prediction performance, which differed by 0.52 m2 m-2 between the best and worst model. The best inversion model achieved an RMSE of 0.91 m2 m-2 and explained 84.9% of the variance of the reference time series. The results underline the need to explicitly describe the used noise model in future studies. Similar studies should be conducted in other study areas, both forest and crop systems, in order to test the noise model as an integral part of hybrid retrieval workflows.

Characterizing Forest Change Using Community-Based Monitoring Data and Landsat Time Series.

Increasing awareness of the issue of deforestation and degradation in the tropics has resulted in efforts to monitor forest resources in tropical countries. Advances in satellite-based remote sensing and ground-based technologies have allowed for monitoring of forests with high spatial, temporal and thematic detail. Despite these advances, there is a need to engage communities in monitoring activities and include these stakeholders in national forest monitoring systems. In this study, we analyzed activity data (deforestation and forest degradation) collected by local forest experts over a 3-year period in an Afro-montane forest area in southwestern Ethiopia and corresponding Landsat Time Series (LTS). Local expert data included forest change attributes, geo-location and photo evidence recorded using mobile phones with integrated GPS and photo capabilities. We also assembled LTS using all available data from all spectral bands and a suite of additional indices and temporal metrics based on time series trajectory analysis. We predicted deforestation, degradation or stable forests using random forest models trained with data from local experts and LTS spectral-temporal metrics as model covariates. Resulting models predicted deforestation and degradation with an out of bag (OOB) error estimate of 29% overall, and 26% and 31% for the deforestation and degradation classes, respectively. By dividing the local expert data into training and operational phases corresponding to local monitoring activities, we found that forest change models improved as more local expert data were used. Finally, we produced maps of deforestation and degradation using the most important spectral bands. The results in this study represent some of the first to combine local expert based forest change data and dense LTS, demonstrating the complementary value of both continuous data streams. Our results underpin the utility of both datasets and provide a useful foundation for integrated forest monitoring systems relying on data streams from diverse sources.

Remotely-sensed detection of effects of extreme droughts on gross primary production.

Severe droughts strongly impact photosynthesis (GPP), and satellite imagery has yet to demonstrate its ability to detect drought effects. Especially changes in vegetation functioning when vegetation state remains unaltered (no browning or defoliation) pose a challenge to satellite-derived indicators. We evaluated the performance of different satellite indicators to detect strong drought effects on GPP in a beech forest in France (Hesse), where vegetation state remained largely unaffected while GPP decreased substantially. We compared the results with three additional sites: a Mediterranean holm oak forest (Puéchabon), a temperate beech forest (Hainich), and a semi-arid grassland (Bugacpuszta). In Hesse, a three-year reduction in GPP following drought was detected only by the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) also detected this drought effect, but only after normalization for absorbed light. In Puéchabon normalized PRI outperformed the other indicators, while the short-term drought effect in Hainich was not detected by any tested indicator. In contrast, most indicators, but not PRI, captured the drought effects in Bugacpuszta. Hence, PRI improved detection of drought effects on GPP in forests and we propose that PRI normalized for absorbed light is considered in future algorithms to estimate GPP from space.

Detecting leaf pulvinar movements on NDVI time series of desert trees: a new approach for water stress detection.

Heliotropic leaf movement or leaf 'solar tracking' occurs for a wide variety of plants, including many desert species and some crops. This has an important effect on the canopy spectral reflectance as measured from satellites. For this reason, monitoring systems based on spectral vegetation indices, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), should account for heliotropic movements when evaluating the health condition of such species. In the hyper-arid Atacama Desert, Northern Chile, we studied seasonal and diurnal variations of MODIS and Landsat NDVI time series of plantation stands of the endemic species Prosopis tamarugo Phil., subject to different levels of groundwater depletion. As solar irradiation increased during the day and also during the summer, the paraheliotropic leaves of Tamarugo moved to an erectophile position (parallel to the sun rays) making the NDVI signal to drop. This way, Tamarugo stands with no water stress showed a positive NDVI difference between morning and midday (ΔNDVI mo-mi) and between winter and summer (ΔNDVI W-S). In this paper, we showed that the ΔNDVI mo-mi of Tamarugo stands can be detected using MODIS Terra and Aqua images, and the ΔNDVI W-S using Landsat or MODIS Terra images. Because pulvinar movement is triggered by changes in cell turgor, the effects of water stress caused by groundwater depletion can be assessed and monitored using ΔNDVI mo-mi and ΔNDVI W-S. For an 11-year time series without rainfall events, Landsat ΔNDVI W-S of Tamarugo stands showed a positive linear relationship with cumulative groundwater depletion. We conclude that both ΔNDVI mo-mi and ΔNDVI W-S have potential to detect early water stress of paraheliotropic vegetation.