PNPLA3 rs738409, age, diabetes, sex, and advanced fibrosis jointly contribute to the risk of major adverse liver outcomes in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 ( PNPLA3 ) rs738409 variant is associated with steatotic liver disease and its progression. We examined the association between PNPLA3 and the development of major adverse liver outcomes (MALOs) and how nonmodifiable and modifiable conditions modify this relationship. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A total of 2075 adults with biopsy-confirmed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) were enrolled in the metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network (MASH CRN) studies and followed prospectively until death, transplant, or withdrawal of consent. One hundred four MALOs were recorded during an average of 4.3 years. PNPLA3 G-allele (Adj. sub-hazard ratio (sHR): 1.4, 95% CI: 1.07-1.8), advanced fibrosis (AF) (Adj. sHR: 7.8, 95% CI: 4.4-13.8), age >60 years (Adj. sHR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.3-6.8), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (Adj. sHR: 2.8, 95% CI: 1.8-4.2) were associated with MALO. Among participants with AF, those carrying the G-allele displayed the highest cumulative incidence of MALO (85%) versus noncarriers (53%), p =0.03, and p -value for interaction <0.01. The strength of the association between PNPLA3 and MALO was statistically significantly greater among older than 60 years (sHR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.5-2.8), women (sHR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.9), and those with AF (sHR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.5-2.4) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (sHR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.5-2.8) as compared with their counterparts, p -value for interaction between PNPLA3 and each factor<0.01. CONCLUSIONS: The deleterious effects of PNPLA3 rs738409 on the risk of MALO are significantly worsened by AF, age, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and sex.

Increases and decreases in liver stiffness measurement are independently associated with the risk of liver-related events in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The clinical significance of change in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is not well-understood. We prospectively defined rates of progression to and regression from LSM-defined compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and their associations with liver-related events (LREs). METHODS: Participants in the NASH Clinical Research Network-led NAFLD Database 2 and 3 studies were included. Progression to cACLD was defined as reaching LSM ≥10 kPa in participants with LSM <10 kPa on initial VCTE; regression from cACLD was defined as reaching LSM <10 kPa in participants with baseline LSM ≥10 kPa. LREs were defined as liver-related death, liver transplant, hepatocellular carcinoma, MELD >15, development of varices, or hepatic decompensation. Univariate and multivariable interval-censored Cox regression analyses were used to compare the cumulative LRE probability by LSM progression and regression status. RESULTS: In 1,403 participants, 89 LREs developed over a mean follow-up of 4.4 years, with an annual incidence rate for LREs of 1.5 (95% CI 1.2-1.8). In participants at risk, progression to LSM ≥10 or ≥15 kPa occurred in 29% and 17%, respectively, whereas regression to LSM <10 or <15 kPa occurred in 44% and 49%, respectively. Progressors to cACLD (≥10 kPa) experienced a higher cumulative LRE rate vs. non-progressors (16% vs. 4%, adjusted hazard ratio 4.0; 95% (1.8-8.9); p <0.01). Regressors from cACLD (to LSM <10 kPa) experienced a lower LRE rate than non-regressors (7% vs. 32%, adjusted hazard ratio 0.25; 95% CI 0.10-0.61; p <0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Change in LSM over time is independently and bi-directionally associated with risk of LRE and is a non-invasive surrogate for clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The prognostic value of change in LSM in patients with NAFLD is not well understood. In this large prospective study of patients with NAFLD and serial vibration-controlled transient elastography exams, baseline and dynamic changes in LSM were associated with the risk of developing liver-related events. LSM is a useful non-invasive surrogate of clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD.

Age, BMI, and Type 2 Diabetes Modify the Relationship Between PNPLA3 and Advanced Fibrosis in Children and Adults With NAFLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: PNPLA3 G-allele is an important determinant of disease severity in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Here, we investigated the effect of age, body mass index (BMI), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on the relationship between PNPLA3 G-allele and advanced fibrosis in adults and children with histologically characterized NAFLD. METHODS: A total of 1047 children and 2057 adults were included. DNA was genotyped for rs738409 in duplicate. Primary outcome of interest was advanced fibrosis (fibrosis stage ≥3). Regression analyses were performed after controlling for relevant covariates. An additive model was used to assess the effect of PNPLA3 G-allele (CC vs CG vs GG). RESULTS: PNPLA3 G-allele was significantly associated with advanced fibrosis in children (odds ratio [OR], 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-2.09) and adults (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.16-1.54). Across the cohort, older age significantly increased the risk for advanced fibrosis for PNPLA3 CC (OR, 1.019; 95% CI, 1.013-1.026), CG (OR, 1.024; 95% CI, 1.018-1.030), and GG (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.023-1.037) genotypes. BMI significantly increased the relationship between PNPLA3 genotypes and advanced fibrosis in children and adults. A BMI of 30 kg/m2 was the cutoff beyond which PNPLA3 G-allele had exponential effect on the risk for advanced fibrosis in children and adults. T2DM significantly worsened the relationship between PNPLA3 G-allele and advanced fibrosis in children and adults (interaction P < .01 for both). CONCLUSIONS: Age, BMI, and T2DM modify the risk of advanced fibrosis associated with PNPLA3 G-allele. Preventing or reversing T2DM and obesity in persons carrying PNPLA3 G-allele may lower the risk for advanced fibrosis in NAFLD.

Effects of Food Insecurity on Hepatic Steatosis and Fibrosis in People With HIV.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Food insecurity (FI) is a risk factor for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and advanced fibrosis in the general population, but its impact on liver disease in people with HIV (PWH) is unknown. METHODS: We examined the association of FI with prevalence of NAFLD and fibrosis in a diverse cohort of PWH. PWH aged ≥ 18 years on antiretroviral therapy, HIV RNA <200 copies/mL, and without other known liver diseases were screened for NAFLD (controlled attenuated parameter ≥263 decibels/meter) and advanced fibrosis (liver stiffness measurement ≥11 kilopascals) by vibration controlled transient elastography at 8 U.S. CENTERS: Participants were categorized as food insecure using the Six-Item Short Form Household Food Security Survey. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of NAFLD and advanced fibrosis by FI status. RESULTS: Among 654 PWH, NAFLD was present in 348 (53%) and advanced fibrosis in 41 (6%). FI was present in 203 of participants (31%), including 97/348 with NAFLD (28%) and 18/41 with advanced fibrosis (44%). In multivariable analysis, FI was associated with lower odds of NAFLD (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37-0.88) and a greater, but nonsignificant, odds of advanced fibrosis (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.65-2.90). We identified a significant interaction between FI and diabetes (P = .02) on fibrosis risk, with greater odds of fibrosis among food insecure PWH and diabetes (OR, 3.83; 95% CI, 1.15-12.73) but not among food insecure nondiabetics (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.47-2.98). CONCLUSIONS: FI is highly prevalent among PWH and associated with lower odds of NAFLD, and among PWH with diabetes, there is greater odds of advanced fibrosis. FI may contribute to hepatic fibrosis through mechanisms other than steatosis in PWH.

Diagnostic Ability of Simple Noninvasive Blood Tests to Predict Increased Liver Stiffness in People Living With HIV and Steatotic Liver Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Steatotic liver disease is common in people with HIV (PWH). Identifying those with advanced fibrosis (AF, bridging fibrosis or cirrhosis), F3-4, is important. We aimed to examine the performance of FIB-4 and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score (NFS) in PWH to identify those with AF assessed by liver stiffness measurement (LSM). METHODS: We prospectively collected data on adults participating in 2 National Institute of Health-sponsored HIV NAFLD networks. All had HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) ≥6 months with HIV RNA <200 copies/mL. Those with viral hepatitis, other liver disease, excessive alcohol use, or hepatic decompensation were excluded. Vibration-controlled transient elastrography for LSM was performed, and AF defined as ≥11 kPa was compared with FIB-4 and NFS at predefined thresholds (<1.3 and >2.67 for FIB-4 and <-1.455 and >0.675 for NFS). RESULTS: A total of 1,065 participants were analyzed: mean age 51.6 years, 74% male, 28% White, 46% Black, 22% Hispanic, with 34% overweight (body mass index 25-29 kg/m 2 ) and 43% obese (body mass index ≥30 kg/m 2 ). Features of the metabolic syndrome were common: hyperlipidemia 35%, type 2 diabetes 17%, and hypertension 48%. The median CD4 + T-cell count was 666 cells/mm 3 , 74% had undetectable HIV RNA, and duration of HIV-1 was 17 years with most taking a nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (92%) and an integrase inhibitor (83%). The mean LSM was 6.3 kPa, and 6.3% had AF. The area under the receiver characteristic curve for FIB-4 and NFS to identify AF were 0.70 and 0.75, respectively. While both had high negative predictive values (97%-98%), the sensitivity at low thresholds and specificity at high thresholds were 64% and 97% for FIB-4 and 80% and 96% for NFS, respectively. Neither FIB-4 nor NFS at either threshold had good positive predictive value to detect AF. DISCUSSION: FIB-4 and NFS have excellent specificity and negative predictive value for detecting AF, and thus can be used as screening tools in PWH to exclude those with AF who do not need further testing (LSM) or referral to hepatologist.

Thirty-Day Readmissions Are Largely Not Preventable in Patients With Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: Hospital readmissions are common in patients with cirrhosis, but there are few studies describing readmission preventability. We aimed to describe the incidence, causes, and risk factors for preventable readmission in this population. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis hospitalized at a single center between June 2014 and March 2020 and followed up for 30 days postdischarge. Demographic, clinical, and socioeconomic data, functional status, and quality of life were collected. Readmission preventability was independently and systematically adjudicated by 3 reviewers. Multinomial logistic regression was used to compare those with (i) preventable readmission, (ii) nonpreventable readmission/death, and (iii) no readmission. RESULTS: Of 654 patients, 246 (38%) were readmitted, and 29 (12%) were preventable readmissions. Reviewers agreed on preventability for 70% of readmissions. Twenty-two (including 2 with preventable readmission) died. The most common reasons for readmission were hepatic encephalopathy (22%), gastrointestinal bleeding (13%), acute kidney injury (13%), and ascites (6%), and these reasons were similar between preventable and nonpreventable readmissions. Preventable readmission was often related to paracentesis timeliness, diuretic adjustment monitoring, and hepatic encephalopathy treatment. Compared with nonreadmitted patients, preventable readmission was independently associated with racial and ethnic minoritized individuals (odds ratio [OR] 5.80; 95% CI, 1.96-17.13), nonmarried marital status (OR 2.88; 95% CI, 1.18-7.05), and admission in the prior 30 days (OR 3.45; 95% CI, 1.48-8.04). DISCUSSION: For patients with cirrhosis, readmission is common, but most are not preventable. Preventable readmissions are often related to ascites and hepatic encephalopathy and are associated with racial and ethnic minorities, nonmarried status, and prior admissions.

CAP and LSM as determined by VCTE are independent predictors of all-cause mortality in the US adult population.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Data retrospective cohort studies have shown that liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography (TE, FibroScan) can predict mortality in patients with NAFLD, however, its ability to predict mortality at a population level is unknown. We investigated the ability of LSM and controlled-attenuation parameter (CAP) by TE to predict mortality in a prospective US cohort. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A total of 4192 US adults aged ≥18 years enrolled in the National Health, and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2017-2018) with reliable information on CAP and LSM by TE were included in this analysis. All-specific and cause-specific mortality were ascertained by linkage to National Death Index records through December 31, 2019. Cox models were used to estimate HR and 95% CI. During a mean follow-up of 24.4 months, there were 68 deaths (1.6%). CAP (adjusted HR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.0-1.05), and LSM (adjusted HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.11) were independently associated with overall mortality. NAFLD by CAP ≥285 had a 2.2-fold (95% CI: 1.0-4.7) increased odds of mortality compared with non-NAFLD. Cumulative mortality rates were significantly higher in participants with LSM of 9.7-13.5 (advanced fibrosis) and LSM ≥13.6 (cirrhosis) as compared with LSM <9.7; p value for trend across groups <0.01. LSM ≥13.6 displayed the highest mortality risk (adjusted HR: 3.2, 95% CI: 1.3-7.8). Compared with LSM <10 [absence of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD)], LSM 10-19.9 (likely ACLD), and ≥20 kPa (likely ACLD with clinically significant portal hypertension) conferred a 3.4-fold (95% CI: 1.0-13.8) and 5.2-fold (95% CI: 1.2-22.3) increase in hazards of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our study findings highlight the importance of liver health as a predictor of overall mortality at a population level.

Geographical similarity and differences in the burden and genetic predisposition of NAFLD.

NAFLD has become a major public health problem for more than 2 decades with a growing prevalence in parallel with the epidemic of obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The disease burden of NAFLD differs across geographical regions and ethnicities. Variations in prevalence of metabolic diseases, extent of urban-rural divide, dietary habits, lifestyles, and the prevalence of NAFLD risk and protective alleles can contribute to such differences. The rise in NAFLD has led to a remarkable increase in the number of cases of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic decompensation, and liver-related mortality related to NAFLD. Moreover, NAFLD is associated with multiple extrahepatic manifestations. Most of them are risk factors for the progression of liver fibrosis and thus worsen the prognosis of NAFLD. All these comorbidities and complications affect the quality of life in subjects with NAFLD. Given the huge and growing size of the population with NAFLD, it is expected that patients, healthcare systems, and the economy will suffer from the ongoing burden related to NAFLD. In this review, we examine the disease burden of NAFLD across geographical areas and ethnicities, together with the distribution of some well-known genetic variants for NAFLD. We also describe some special populations including patients with T2D, lean patients, the pediatric population, and patients with concomitant liver diseases. We discuss extrahepatic outcomes, patient-reported outcomes, and economic burden related to NAFLD.

Clinical characteristics and prognosis of hospitalized patients with moderate alcohol-associated hepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Little is known about the clinical characteristics and prognosis of hospitalized patients with moderate alcohol-associated hepatitis (mAH) as compared to severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (sAH). Therefore, we aimed to describe the clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with mortality in hospitalized mAH patients. METHODS: Patients hospitalized with alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2020 at a large US healthcare system [11 hospitals, one liver transplant centre] were retrospectively analysed for outcomes. Primary outcome was 90-day mortality. AH and mAH were defined according to NIAAA Alcoholic Hepatitis Consortia and Model for End-stage Liver Disease Score ≤ 20 respectively. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors associated with 90-day mortality. RESULTS: 1504 AH patients were hospitalized during the study period, of whom 39% (n = 590) had mAH. Compared to sAH patients, mAH patients were older (50 vs. 48 years, p < 0.001) and less likely to have underlying cirrhosis (74% vs. 83%, p < 0.001). There were no differences between the two groups for median alcohol intake g/day (mAH 140.0 vs. sAH 112.0, p = 0.071). The cumulative proportion surviving at 90 days was 88% in mAH versus 62% in sAH (p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, older age [HR 1.03 (95% CI 1.00-1.06), p = 0.020], corticosteroid use [HR 1.80 (95% CI 1.06-3.06), p = 0.030] and acute kidney injury (AKI) [HR 2.43 (95% CI 1.33-4.47), p = 0.004] were independently associated with 90-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: mAH carries a 12% mortality rate at 90 days. Age, AKI and corticosteroid use were associated with an increased risk for 90-day mortality. Avoidance of corticosteroids and strategies to reduce the risk of AKI could improve outcomes in mAH patients.

Role of Spleen Stiffness Measurement in the Evaluation of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND: Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) correlates with the severity of portal hypertension. AIMS: We investigated the utility of SSM in individuals with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) for detecting cirrhosis, esophageal varices (EV), and high-risk EV. METHODS: 154 study participants with MASLD underwent simultaneous liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and SSM. 96 (62%) participants had an upper endoscopy (73 participants, i.e., 47% undergoing within a year). The diagnostic performance of SSM, as well as the BAVENO VII proposed SSM cutoffs (≥ 21 kPa, > 40 kPa, and > 50 kPa), was examined. RESULTS: The failure rate for SSM was 19% compared to 5% for LSM. An invalid SSM was statistically significantly associated with a higher body mass index, a larger waist circumference, and a lower fibrosis stage. The area under the receiver operating characteristics for SSM to diagnose cirrhosis, EV, and high-risk EV was 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.85), 0.74 (95% CI 0.61-0.84), and 0.82 (95% CI 0.75-0.98), respectively. SSM ≥ 21 kPa cutoff had a sensitivity > 96% for all three outcomes, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 88% for cirrhosis. In contrast, SSM > 40 kPa and SSM > 50 kPa cutoffs had better diagnostic abilities for identifying EV, particularly high-risk EV (sensitivity of 100% and 93% with NPV of 100% and 96%, respectively). CONCLUSION: SSM has a higher failure rate in individuals who are non-cirrhotic or have a higher BMI, or larger waist circumference. Although useful for diagnosing NASH cirrhosis, SSM is most reliable in excluding EV and high-risk EV.

Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Limited to Intrahepatic Bile Ducts Has Distinctly Better Prognosis.

BACKGROUND: There are two sub-phenotypes of large-duct primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC): isolated intrahepatic PSC (IIPSC) and extrahepatic disease with or without intrahepatic (extra/intrahepatic). AIMS: This study examined the differences in outcomes in patients with IIPSC compared to extra/intrahepatic and small-duct PSC. METHODS: Patients with PSC treated at our institution from 1998 to 2019 were investigated. Biochemistries, clinical events, and survival were assessed by chart review and National Death Index. Cox-proportional hazards were used to determine the risk of clinical outcomes based on biliary tract involvement. RESULTS: Our cohort comprised 442 patients with large-duct PSC (57 had IIPSC, 385 had extra/intrahepatic PSC) and 23 with small-duct PSC. Median follow-up in the IIPSC group was not significantly different from the extra/intrahepatic group [7 vs. 6 years, P = 0.06]. Except for lower age (mean 37.9 vs. 43.0 years, P = 0.045), the IIPSC group was not different from the extra/intrahepatic. The IIPSC group had longer transplant-free survival (log-rank P = 0.001) with a significantly lower risk for liver transplantation (12% vs. 34%, P < 0.001). The IIPSC group had a lower risk of death or transplantation than the extra/intrahepatic PSC group [HR: 0.34, 95% CI: 0.17-0.67, P < 0.001]. No bile duct or gallbladder cancers developed in patients with IIPSC, compared to 24 in the extra/intrahepatic group. The clinical characteristics and outcomes of IIPSC were similar to 23 individuals with small-duct PSC. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with IIPSC have a favorable prognosis similar to small-duct PSC. These data are important for counseling patients and designing therapeutic trials for PSC.

Prevalence of High-risk Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) in the United States: Results From NHANES 2017-2018.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The population prevalence of high-risk non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), defined as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score ≥4 and fibrosis stage ≥2, is unknown. The FibroScan-AST (FAST) score, calculated using liver stiffness measurement and controlled attenuation parameter values from FibroScan and aspartate aminotransferase levels, is a validated algorithm to identify individuals with high-risk NASH. We estimated the prevalence of high-risk NASH using the FAST score in the United States population. METHODS: Data were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2017-2018, which included a total of 4218 adults with valid elastography measurements. FAST scores of ≥0.35 (sensitivity, 90%) and ≥0.67 (specificity, 90%) were used to identify adults with high-risk NASH in the general population. RESULTS: At 90% sensitivity for the FAST score, the prevalence of age-adjusted high-risk NASH was 5.8% and was higher among men (8.2% vs 3.6% in women) and in Hispanics (9.2% vs. 5.8% non-Hispanic (N.H.) Asians, 5.2% in N.H. whites, and 3.8% in N.H. blacks). The prevalence of high-risk NASH was 11.7% in those with metabolic syndrome and 22.5% in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). At 90% specificity for the FAST score, the prevalence of age-adjusted high-risk NASH was 1.2% and was higher among men (1.7% vs 0.8% in women) and in Hispanics (2.2% vs 1.0% in N.H. Asians, 0.9% in N.H. whites, and 0.4% in N.H. blacks). The prevalence of high-risk NASH was 3.4% in those with metabolic syndrome and 8.7% in adults with T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate at least 2 million adults have high-risk NASH in the United States. Moreover, the prevalence of high-risk NASH among individuals with T2DM is higher, ranging between 8.7% and 22.5%, supporting the case for coordinated case-finding and management.

Significant Dose-Response Association of Physical Activity and Diet Quality With Mortality in Adults With Suspected NAFLD in a Population Study.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to determine whether higher levels (volume and intensity) of physical activity (PA) and diet quality (DQ) are associated with better survival rates in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: Using data from the 2011-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 3,548 participants with a Fatty Liver Index ≥60 were included. PA was collected using a wrist-worn triaxial accelerometer and expressed as 2 metrics using Monitor-Independent Movement Summary (MIMS) units: the average of daily MIMS, which represents volume, and peak 30-minute MIMS, which is the average of the highest 30 MIMS min/d and represents intensity. DQ was assessed by the Healthy Eating Index-2015. Mortality follow-up was recorded using the National Death Index linkage through December 31, 2019. RESULTS: Our analyses revealed a dose-dependent, nonlinear association of PA (volume and intensity) with all-cause mortality and a dose-dependent, linear association of DQ with all-cause mortality. The maximum protective dose of PA volume was observed at 14,300 MIMS/min (adj. HR: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.11-0.38). The maximum protective dose of PA intensity was observed at 54.25 MIMS/min (adj. HR: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.05-0.23), beyond which mortality risks flattened. The Healthy Eating Index-2015 showed its maximum protective effect at 66.17 (adj. HR: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.40-0.74). Higher PA (volume and intensity) levels were associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular-related but not cancer-related mortality. A healthier diet was linked to a reduced risk of cardiovascular-specific and cancer-specific mortality. Sensitivity analyses showed that the beneficial effects of PA and DQ on survival rates remained significant across sex, racial/ethnic, and age groups as well as in participants without NAFLD. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that higher daily accumulated and peak effort PA and DQ are associated with lower all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in US adults with NAFLD.

PNPLA3 rs738409 and risk of fibrosis in NAFLD: Exploring mediation pathways through intermediate histological features.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is unclear whether rs738409 (p.I148M) missense variant in patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing 3 rs738409 promotes fibrosis development by triggering specific fibrogenic pathways or by creating an unfavorable microenvironment by promoting steatosis, inflammation, and ultimately fibrosis. We tested the hypothesis that intermediate histologic traits, including steatosis, lobular and portal inflammation, and ballooning may determine the effect of rs738409 on liver fibrosis among individuals with biopsy-proven NAFLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Causal mediation models including multiple mediators in parallel or sequentially were performed to examine the effect of rs738409, by decomposing its total effect on fibrosis severity into direct and indirect effects, mediated by histology traits in 1153 non-Hispanic White patients. Total effect of rs738409 on fibrosis was ß = 0.19 (95% CI: 0.09-0.29). The direct effect of rs738409 on fibrosis after removing mediators' effects was ß = 0.09 (95% CI: 0.01-0.17) and the indirect effect of rs738409 on fibrosis through all mediators' effects were ß = 0.010 (95% CI: 0.04-0.15). Among all mediators, the greatest estimated effect size was displayed by portal inflammation (ß = 0.09, 95% CI: 0.05-0.12). Among different sequential combinations of histology traits, the path including lobular inflammation followed by ballooning degeneration displayed the most significant indirect effect (ß = 0.023, 95% CI: 0.011-0.037). Mediation analysis in a separate group of 404 individuals with biopsy-proven NAFLD from other races and ethnicity showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: In NAFLD, nearly half of the total effect of the rs738409 G allele on fibrosis severity could be explained by a direct pathway, suggesting that rs738409 may promote fibrosis development by activating specific fibrogenic pathways. A large proportion of the indirect effect of rs738409 on fibrosis severity is mediated through portal inflammation.

High-quality diet, physical activity, and college education are associated with low risk of NAFLD among the US population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The effects of diet quality (DQ), physical activity (PA), and socioeconomic status (SES) on the risk of NAFLD are unclear. We examined the association among DQ, PA, SES, and NAFLD risk. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This is a cross-sectional analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, 2017-2018, which included 3589 participants with reliable information on vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) measurements, 24-h dietary recalls, PA, and SES. DQ was assessed by the Healthy Eating Index (HEI)-2015. PA was determined by the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire. SES was assessed by the educational attainment and family poverty income ratio (PIR). Risk of NAFLD was considered by means of a composite outcome using VCTE measurements: non-NAFLD versus NAFLD without clinically significant fibrosis (CSF) versus NAFLD with CSF. The NAFLD risk was lower in physically active (≥600 metabolic equivalent of task [MET] min/week) versus inactive participants (<600 MET min/week) (OR: 0.71, p = 0.043). A high-quality diet (HQD) (HEI > 56.64) was associated with a lower risk of NAFLD (OR: 0.58, p < 0.01) compared with a non-HQD. The lowest NAFLD risk was observed in those physically active with HQD (OR: 0.43, p < 0.01). Body mass index and waist circumference significantly mediated the effect of DQ and PA on NAFLD risk. Education (college or above) (OR: 0.65, p = 0.034), but not PIR, was associated with a reduced NAFLD risk. HQD and increased PA partially mediated the effect of education on NAFLD risk. The total effect of education on NAFLD risk mediated by DQ was 29% and by PA was 8%. CONCLUSIONS: HQD, increased physical activity, and college education were associated with lower NAFLD risk in the US population.

Lipoprotein Z, a hepatotoxic lipoprotein, predicts outcome in alcohol-associated hepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Lipoprotein Z (LP-Z) is an abnormal free cholesterol (FC)-enriched LDL-like particle discovered from patients with cholestatic liver disease. This study aims to define the diagnostic value of LP-Z in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) and interrogate the biology behind its formation. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We measured serum levels of LP-Z using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, a well-established clinical assay. Serum levels of LP-Z were significantly elevated in four AH cohorts compared with control groups, including heavy drinkers and patients with cirrhosis. We defined a Z-index, calculated by the ratio of LP-Z to total apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins, representing the degree of deviation from normal VLDL metabolism. A high Z-index was associated with 90-day mortality independent from the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and provided added prognosticative value. Both a Z-index ≤ 0.6 and a decline of Z-index by ≥0.1 in 2 weeks predicted 90-day survival. RNA-sequencing analyses of liver tissues demonstrated an inverse association in the expression of enzymes responsible for the extrahepatic conversion of VLDL to LDL and AH disease severity, which was further confirmed by the measurement of serum enzyme activity. To evaluate whether the FC in LP-Z could contribute to the pathogenesis of AH, we found significantly altered FC levels in liver explant of patients with AH. Furthermore, FC in reconstituted LP-Z particles caused direct toxicity to human hepatocytes in a concentration-dependent manner, supporting a pathogenic role of FC in LP-Z. CONCLUSIONS: Impaired lipoprotein metabolism in AH leads to the accumulation of LP-Z in the circulation, which is hepatotoxic from excessive FC. A Z-index ≤ 0.6 predicts 90-day survival independent from conventional biomarkers for disease prognostication.

ABIDE: An Accurate Predictive Model of Liver Decompensation in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver-Related Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an increasingly important cause of liver cirrhosis and subsequent complications. We retrospectively developed and validated a model to predict hepatic decompensation in patients with NAFLD and cirrhosis and compared this with currently available models. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Baseline variables from an international cohort of 299 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD with compensated cirrhosis were examined to construct a model using competing risk multivariate regression and Akaike/Bayesian information criteria. Validation was performed in 244 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD cirrhosis from the United States. Prognostic accuracy was compared with the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI)-FIB-4 score using time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC) analysis. During a median follow-up of 5.6 years (range 2.4-14.1) and 5.4 years (range 1.5-13.8), hepatic decompensation occurred in 81 and 132 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the derivation cohort, independent predictors of hepatic decompensation (Aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, Bilirubin, International normalized ratio, type 2 Diabetes, and Esophageal varices) were combined into the ABIDE model. Patients with a score ≥4.1 compared with those with a score <4.1 had a higher risk of decompensation (subhazard ratio, 6.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0-11.2; P < 0.001), a greater 5-year cumulative incidence (37% vs. 6%, P < 0.001), and shorter mean duration to decompensation (3.8 vs 6.7 years, P < 0.001). The accuracy of the ABIDE model at 5 years was good in the derivation (tAUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84) and validation cohorts (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.81) and was significantly more accurate than the NFS (0.72), FIB-4 (0.74), MELD (0.69), CTP (0.72), and ALBI-FIB-4 (0.73) (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NAFLD and compensated cirrhosis, ABIDE, a predictive model of routine clinical measures, predicts future hepatic decompensation.

Enhanced Liver Fibrosis Score Can Be Used to Predict Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis and Compensated Cirrhosis.

There is a growing need for a noninvasive tool to identify patients at higher risk of hepatic decompensation among individuals with compensated nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis.1 Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) has value in risk stratification2 and prediction of mortality among cirrhotics3 but has limitations of being invasive, costly, and a requirement for expertise.4 The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) score is based on circulating markers of hepatic matrix turnover and consists of hyaluronic acid, TIMP-1 (tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-1), and PIIINP (propeptide of type III collagen). It identifies nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients with advanced fibrosis quite reliably.5,6 However, its utility as a prognostic biomarker among individuals with compensated cirrhosis due to NASH is unclear. This study evaluated the prognostic significance of the ELF score for predicting short-term liver-related outcomes among patients with compensated NASH cirrhosis.

ADH1B∗2 Is Associated With Reduced Severity of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Adults, Independent of Alcohol Consumption.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol dehydrogenase 1B (ADH1B) is involved in alcohol metabolism. The allele A (ADH1B∗2) of the rs1229984: A>G variant in ADH1B is associated with a higher alcohol metabolizing activity compared to the ancestral allele G (ADH1B∗1). Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with reduced severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), based on histologic analysis, compared with no alcohol consumption. However, it is unclear whether ADH1B∗2 modifies the relationship between moderate alcohol consumption and severity of NAFLD. We examined the association between ADH1B∗2 and moderate alcohol consumption and histologic severity of NAFLD. METHODS: We collected data from 1557 multiethnic adult patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD enrolled into 4 different studies conducted by the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) Clinical Research Network. Histories of alcohol consumption were obtained from answers to standardized questionnaires. Liver biopsy samples were analyzed by histology and scored centrally according to the NASH Clinical Research Network criteria. We performed covariate adjusted logistic regressions to identify associations between histologic features of NAFLD severity and moderate alcohol consumption and/or ADH1B∗2. RESULTS: A higher proportion of Asians/Pacific Islanders/Hawaiians carried the ADH1B∗2 allele (86%) than other racial groups (4%-13%). However, the study population comprised mostly non-Hispanic whites (1153 patients, 74%), so the primary analysis focused on this group. Among them, 433 were moderate drinkers and 90 were ADH1B∗2 carriers. After we adjusted for confounders, including alcohol consumption status, ADH1B∗2 was associated with lower frequency of steatohepatitis (odds ratio [OR], 0.52; P < .01) or fibrosis (odds ratio, 0.69; P = .050) compared with ADH1B∗1. Moderate alcohol consumption (g/d) reduced the severity of NAFLD in patients with ADH1B∗1 or ADH1B∗2. However, ADH1B∗2, compared to ADH1B∗1, was associated with a reduced risk of definite NASH (ADH1B∗2: OR, 0.80; P < .01 vs ADH1B∗1: OR, 0.96; P = .036) and a reduced risk of an NAFLD activity score of 4 or higher (ADH1B∗2: OR, 0.83; P = .012 vs ADH1B∗1: OR, 0.96; P = .048) (P < .01 for the difference in the effect of moderate alcohol consumption between alleles). The relationship between body mass index and NAFLD severity was significantly modified by ADH1B∗2, even after we controlled for alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: ADH1B∗2 reduces the risk of NASH and fibrosis in adults with NAFLD regardless of alcohol consumption status. ADH1B∗2 might modify the association between high body mass index and NAFLD severity.

Type 2 Diabetes and Metformin Use Associate With Outcomes of Patients With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis-Related, Child-Pugh A Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Factors that affect outcomes of patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-related cirrhosis are unclear. We studied associations of type 2 diabetes, levels of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and use of antidiabetic medications with survival and liver-related events in patients with NASH and compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: We collected data from 299 patients with biopsy-proven NASH with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis from tertiary hospitals in Spain, Australia, Hong Kong, and Cuba, from April 1995 through December 2016. We obtained information on the presence of type 2 diabetes, level of HbA1c, and use of antidiabetic medications. Cox proportional and competing risk models were used to estimate and compare rates of transplant-free survival, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). RESULTS: A total of 212 patients had type 2 diabetes at baseline and 8 of 87 patients developed diabetes during a median follow-up time of 5.1 years (range, 0.5-10.0 y). A lower proportion of patients with diabetes survived the entire follow-up period (38%) than of patients with no diabetes (81%) (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.23; 95% CI, 1.93-9.29). Higher proportions of patients with diabetes also had hepatic decompensation (51% vs 26% of patients with no diabetes; aHR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.005-4.11) and HCC (25% vs 7% of patients with no diabetes; aHR, 5.42; 95% CI, 1.74-16.80). Averaged annual HbA1c levels over time were not associated with outcomes. Metformin use over time was associated with a significant reduction in risk of death or liver transplantation (aHR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.26-0.45), hepatic decompensation (aHR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.74-0.97), and HCC (aHR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.69-0.96). Metformin significantly reduced the risk of hepatic decompensation and HCC only in subjects with HbA1c levels greater than 7.0% (aHR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99 and aHR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.43-0.94, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In an international cohort of patients with biopsy-proven NASH and Child-Pugh A cirrhosis, type 2 diabetes increased the risk of death and liver-related outcomes, including HCC. Patients who took metformin had higher rates of survival and lower rates of decompensation and HCC.