Timing of Biomarker Changes in Sporadic Alzheimer's Disease in Estimated Years from Symptom Onset.

OBJECTIVE: A clock relating amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) to time was used to estimate the timing of biomarker changes in sporadic Alzheimer disease (AD). METHODS: Research participants were included who underwent cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) collection within 2 years of amyloid PET. The ages at amyloid onset and AD symptom onset were estimated for each individual. The timing of change for plasma, CSF, imaging, and cognitive measures was calculated by comparing restricted cubic splines of cross-sectional data from the amyloid PET positive and negative groups. RESULTS: The amyloid PET positive sub-cohort (n = 118) had an average age of 70.4 ± 7.4 years (mean ± standard deviation) and 16% were cognitively impaired. The amyloid PET negative sub-cohort (n = 277) included individuals with low levels of amyloid plaque burden at all scans who were cognitively unimpaired at the time of the scans. Biomarker changes were detected 15-19 years before estimated symptom onset for CSF Aß42/Aß40, plasma Aß42/Aß40, CSF pT217/T217, and amyloid PET; 12-14 years before estimated symptom onset for plasma pT217/T217, CSF neurogranin, CSF SNAP-25, CSF sTREM2, plasma GFAP, and plasma NfL; and 7-9 years before estimated symptom onset for CSF pT205/T205, CSF YKL-40, hippocampal volumes, and cognitive measures. INTERPRETATION: The use of an amyloid clock enabled visualization and analysis of biomarker changes as a function of estimated years from symptom onset in sporadic AD. This study demonstrates that estimated years from symptom onset based on an amyloid clock can be used as a continuous staging measure for sporadic AD and aligns with findings in autosomal dominant AD. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:951-965.

Comparison of plasma and CSF biomarkers in predicting cognitive decline.

OBJECTIVES: Concentrations of amyloid-ß peptides (Aß42/Aß40) and neurofilament light (NfL) can be measured in plasma or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and are associated with Alzheimer's disease brain pathology and cognitive impairment. This study directly compared plasma and CSF measures of Aß42/Aß40 and NfL as predictors of cognitive decline. METHODS: Participants were 65 years or older and cognitively normal at baseline with at least one follow-up cognitive assessment. Analytes were measured with the following types of assays: plasma Aß42/Aß40, immunoprecipitation-mass spectrometry; plasma NfL, Simoa; CSF Aß42/Aß40, automated immunoassay; CSF NfL plate-based immunoassay. Mixed effects models evaluated the global cognitive composite score over a maximum of 6 years as predicted by the fluid biomarkers. RESULTS: Analyses included 371 cognitively normal participants, aged 72.7 ± 5.2 years (mean ± standard deviation) with an average length of follow-up of 3.9 ± 1.6 years. Standardized concentrations of biomarkers were associated with annualized cognitive change: plasma Aß42/Aß40, 0.014 standard deviations (95% confidence intervals 0.002 to 0.026); CSF Aß42/Aß40, 0.020 (0.008 to 0.032); plasma Nfl, -0.018 (-0.030 to -0.005); and CSF NfL, -0.024 (-0.036 to -0.012). Power analyses estimated that 266 individuals in each treatment arm would be needed to detect a 50% slowing of decline if identified by abnormal plasma measures versus 229 for CSF measures. INTERPRETATION: Both plasma and CSF measures of Aß42/Aß40 and NfL predicted cognitive decline. A clinical trial that enrolled individuals based on abnormal plasma Aß42/Aß40 and NfL levels would require only a marginally larger cohort than if CSF measures were used.