Projection of the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany: a demographic modelling approach to estimate the direct medical excess costs from 2010 to 2040.

AIM: To model the future costs of Type 2 diabetes in Germany, taking into account demographic changes, disease dynamics and undiagnosed cases. METHODS: Using a time-discrete Markov model, the prevalence of diabetes (diagnosed/undiagnosed) between 2010 and 2040 was estimated and linked with cost weights. Demographic, epidemiological and economic scenarios were modelled. Inputs to the model included the official population forecasts, prevalence, incidence and mortality rates, proportions of undiagnosed cases, health expenditure and cost ratios of an individual with (diagnosed/undiagnosed) diabetes to an individual without diabetes. The outcomes were the case numbers and associated annual direct medical excess costs of Type 2 diabetes from a societal perspective in 2010€. RESULTS: In the base case, the case numbers of diabetes will grow from 5 million (2.8 million diagnosed) in 2010 to a maximum of 7.9 million (4.6 million diagnosed) in 2037. From 2010 to 2040, the prevalence rate amonf individuals ≥40 years old will increase from 10.5 to 16.3%. The annual costs of diabetes will increase by 79% from €11.8 billion in 2010 to €21.1 billion in 2040 (€9.5 billion to €17.6 billion for diagnosed cases). CONCLUSIONS: The projected increase in costs will be attributable to demographic changes and disease dynamics, and will be enhanced by higher per capita costs with advancing age. Better epidemiological and economic data regarding diabetes care in Germany would improve the forecasting accuracy. The method used in the present study can anticipate the effects of alternative policy scenarios and can easily be adapted to other chronic diseases.

Patient time costs attributable to healthcare use in diabetes: results from the population-based KORA survey in Germany.

AIMS: Patient time costs have been described to be substantial; however, data are highly limited. We estimated patient time costs attributable to outpatient and inpatient care in study participants with diagnosed diabetes, previously undetected diabetes, impaired glucose regulation and normal glucose tolerance. METHODS: Using data of the population-based KORA S4 study (55-74 years, random sample of n = 350), we identified participants' stage of glucose tolerance by oral glucose tolerance test. To estimate mean patient time costs per year (crude and standardized with respect to age and sex), we used data regarding time spent with ambulatory visits including travel and waiting time and with hospital stays (time valued at a 2011 net wage rate of €20.63/h). The observation period was 24 weeks and data were extrapolated to 1 year. RESULTS: Eighty-nine to 97% of participants in the four groups (diagnosed diabetes, undetected diabetes, impaired glucose regulation and normal glucose tolerance.) had at least one physician contact and 4-14% at least one hospital admission during the observation period. Patient time [h/year (95% CI)] was 102.0 (33.7-254.8), 53.8 (15.0-236.7), 59.3 (25.1-146.8) and 28.6 (21.1-43.7), respectively. Age-sex standardized patient time costs per year (95% CI) were €2447.1 (804.5-6143.6), €880.4 (259.1-3606.7), €1151.6 (454.6-2957.6) and €589.2 (435.8-904.8). CONCLUSIONS: Patient time costs were substantial--even higher than medication costs in the same study population. They are higher in participants with diagnosed diabetes, but also in those with undetected diabetes and impaired glucose regulation compared with those with normal glucose tolerance. Research is needed in larger populations to receive more precise and certain estimates that can be used in health economic evaluation.

Medication costs by glucose tolerance stage in younger and older women and men: results from the population-based KORA survey in Germany.

To estimate medication costs in individuals with diagnosed diabetes, undetected diabetes, impaired glucose regulation and normal blood glucose values in a population-based sample by age and sex.Using the KORA F4 follow-up survey, conducted in 2006-2008 (n=2611, age 40-82 years), we identified individuals' glucose tolerance status by means of an oral glucose tolerance test. We assessed all medications taken regularly, calculated age-sex specific medication costs and estimated cost ratios for total, total without antihyperglycemic drugs, and cardiovascular medication, using multiple 2-part regression models.Compared to individuals with normal glucose values, costs were increased in known diabetes, undetected diabetes and impaired glucose regulation, which was more pronounced in participants aged 40-59 years than in those aged 60-82 years (cost ratios for all medications: 40-59 years: 2.85; 95%-confidence interval: 1.78-4.54, 2.00; 1.22-3.29 and 1.53; 1.12-2.09; 60-82 years: 2.04; 1.71-2.43, 1.17; 0.90-1.51 and 1.09; 0.94-1.28). Compared to individuals with diagnosed diabetes, costs were significantly lower among individuals with impaired glucose regulation across all age and sex strata, also when antihyperglycemic medication was excluded (40-59 years: 0.60; 0.36-0.98, 60-82 years: 0.74; 0.60-0.90; men: 0.72; 0.56-0.93; women: 0.72; 0.54-0.96).We could quantify age- and sex-specific medication costs and cost ratios in individuals with diagnosed diabetes, undetected diabetes and impaired glucose regulation compared to those with normal glucose values, using data of a population-based sample, with oral glucose tolerance test-based identification of diabetes states. These results may help to validly estimate cost-effectiveness of screening and early treatment or prevention of diabetes.