Suspect Screening Analysis of Pooled Human Serum Samples Using GC × GC/TOF-MS.

Humans interact with thousands of chemicals. This study aims to identify substances of emerging concern and in need of human health risk evaluations. Sixteen pooled human serum samples were constructed from 25 individual samples each from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences' Clinical Research Unit. Samples were analyzed using gas chromatography (GC) × GC/time-of-flight (TOF)-mass spectrometry (MS) in a suspect screening analysis, with follow-up confirmation analysis of 19 substances. A standard reference material blood sample was also analyzed through the confirmation process for comparison. The pools were stratified by sex (female and male) and by age (≤45 and >45). Publicly available information on potential exposure sources was aggregated to annotate presence in serum as either endogenous, food/nutrient, drug, commerce, or contaminant. Of the 544 unique substances tentatively identified by spectral matching, 472 were identified in females, while only 271 were identified in males. Surprisingly, 273 of the identified substances were found only in females. It is known that behavior and near-field environments can drive exposures, and this work demonstrates the existence of exposure sources uniquely relevant to females.

Application of Cell Painting for chemical hazard evaluation in support of screening-level chemical assessments.

'Cell Painting' is an imaging-based high-throughput phenotypic profiling (HTPP) method in which cultured cells are fluorescently labeled to visualize subcellular structures (i.e., nucleus, nucleoli, endoplasmic reticulum, cytoskeleton, Golgi apparatus / plasma membrane and mitochondria) and to quantify morphological changes in response to chemicals or other perturbagens. HTPP is a high-throughput and cost-effective bioactivity screening method that detects effects associated with many different molecular mechanisms in an untargeted manner, enabling rapid in vitro hazard assessment for thousands of chemicals. Here, 1201 chemicals from the ToxCast library were screened in concentration-response up to ∼100 µM in human U-2 OS cells using HTPP. A phenotype altering concentration (PAC) was estimated for chemicals active in the tested range. PACs tended to be higher than lower bound potency values estimated from a broad collection of targeted high-throughput assays, but lower than the threshold for cytotoxicity. In vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) was used to estimate administered equivalent doses (AEDs) based on PACs for comparison to human exposure predictions. AEDs for 18/412 chemicals overlapped with predicted human exposures. Phenotypic profile information was also leveraged to identify putative mechanisms of action and group chemicals. Of 58 known nuclear receptor modulators, only glucocorticoids and retinoids produced characteristic profiles; and both receptor types are expressed in U-2 OS cells. Thirteen chemicals with profile similarity to glucocorticoids were tested in a secondary screen and one chemical, pyrene, was confirmed by an orthogonal gene expression assay as a novel putative GR modulating chemical. Most active chemicals demonstrated profiles not associated with a known mechanism-of-action. However, many structurally related chemicals produced similar profiles, with exceptions such as diniconazole, whose profile differed from other active conazoles. Overall, the present study demonstrates how HTPP can be applied in screening-level chemical assessments through a series of examples and brief case studies.

Plasma Protein Binding Evaluations of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances for Category-Based Toxicokinetic Assessment.

New approach methodologies (NAMs) that make use of in vitro screening and in silico approaches to inform chemical evaluations rely on in vitro toxicokinetic (TK) data to translate in vitro bioactive concentrations to exposure metrics reflective of administered dose. With 1364 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) identified as of interest under Section 8 of the U.S. Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) and concern over the lack of knowledge regarding environmental persistence, human health, and ecological effects, the utility of NAMs to understand potential toxicities and toxicokinetics across these data-poor compounds is being evaluated. To address the TK data deficiency, 71 PFAS selected to span a wide range of functional groups and physico-chemical properties were evaluated for in vitro human plasma protein binding (PPB) by ultracentrifugation with liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis. For the 67 PFAS successfully evaluated by ultracentrifugation, fraction unbound in plasma (fup) ranged from less than 0.0001 (pentadecafluorooctanoyl chloride) to 0.7302 (tetrafluorosuccinic acid), with over half of the PFAS showing PPB exceeding 99.5% (fup < 0.005). Category-based evaluations revealed that perfluoroalkanoyl chlorides and perfluorinated carboxylates (PFCAs) with 6-10 carbons were the highest bound, with similar median values for alkyl, ether, and polyether PFCAs. Interestingly, binding was lower for the PFCAs with a carbon chain length of ≥11. Lower binding also was noted for fluorotelomer carboxylic acids when compared to their carbon-equivalent perfluoroalkyl acids. Comparisons of the fup value derived using two PPB methods, ultracentrifugation or rapid equilibrium dialysis (RED), revealed RED failure for a subset of PFAS of high mass and/or predicted octanol-water partition coefficients exceeding 4 due to failure to achieve equilibrium. Bayesian modeling was used to provide uncertainty bounds around fup point estimates for incorporation into TK modeling. This PFAS PPB evaluation and grouping exercise across 67 structures greatly expand our current knowledge and will aid in PFAS NAM development.

A Data-Driven Approach to Estimating Occupational Inhalation Exposure Using Workplace Compliance Data.

A growing list of chemicals are approved for production and use in the United States and elsewhere, and new approaches are needed to rapidly assess the potential exposure and health hazard posed by these substances. Here, we present a high-throughput, data-driven approach that will aid in estimating occupational exposure using a database of over 1.5 million observations of chemical concentrations in U.S. workplace air samples. We fit a Bayesian hierarchical model that uses industry type and the physicochemical properties of a substance to predict the distribution of workplace air concentrations. This model substantially outperforms a null model when predicting whether a substance will be detected in an air sample, and if so at what concentration, with 75.9% classification accuracy and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.00 log10 mg m-3 when applied to a held-out test set of substances. This modeling framework can be used to predict air concentration distributions for new substances, which we demonstrate by making predictions for 5587 new substance-by-workplace-type pairs reported in the US EPA's Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) Chemical Data Reporting (CDR) industrial use database. It also allows for improved consideration of occupational exposure within the context of high-throughput, risk-based chemical prioritization efforts.

In vitro to in vivo extrapolation and high-content imaging for simultaneous characterization of chemically induced liver steatosis and markers of hepatotoxicity.

Chemically induced steatosis is characterized by lipid accumulation associated with mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and nucleus distortion. New approach methods integrating in vitro and in silico models are needed to identify chemicals that may induce these cellular events as potential risk factors for steatosis and associated hepatotoxicity. In this study we used high-content imaging for the simultaneous quantification of four cellular markers as sentinels for hepatotoxicity and steatosis in chemically exposed human liver cells in vitro. Furthermore, we evaluated the results with a computational model for the extrapolation of human oral equivalent doses (OED). First, we tested 16 reference chemicals with known capacities to induce cellular alterations in nuclear morphology, lipid accumulation, mitochondrial membrane potential and oxidative stress. Then, using physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling and reverse dosimetry, OEDs were extrapolated from data of any stimulated individual sentinel response. The extrapolated OEDs were confirmed to be within biologically relevant exposure ranges for the reference chemicals. Next, we tested 14 chemicals found in food, selected from thousands of putative chemicals on the basis of structure-based prediction for nuclear receptor activation. Amongst these, orotic acid had an extrapolated OED overlapping with realistic exposure ranges. Thus, we were able to characterize known steatosis-inducing chemicals as well as data-scarce food-related chemicals, amongst which we confirmed orotic acid to induce hepatotoxicity. This strategy addresses needs of next generation risk assessment and can be used as a first chemical prioritization hazard screening step in a tiered approach to identify chemical risk factors for steatosis and hepatotoxicity-associated events.

A regression analysis using simple descriptors for multiple dermal datasets: Going from individual membranes to the full skin.

In silico methods to estimate and/or quantify skin absorption of chemicals as a function of chemistry are needed to realistically predict pharmacological, occupational, and environmental exposures. The Potts-Guy equation is a well-established approach, using multi-linear regression analysis describing skin permeability (Kp) in terms of the octanol/water partition coefficient (logP) and molecular weight (MW). In this work, we obtained regression equations for different human datasets relevant to environmental and cosmetic chemicals. Since the Potts-Guy equation was published in 1992, we explored recent datasets that include different skin layers, such as dermatomed (including dermis to a defined thickness) and full skin. Our work was consistent with others who have observed that fits to the Potts-Guy equation are stronger for experiments focused on the epidermis. Permeability estimates for dermatomed skin and full skin resulted in low regression coefficients when compared to epidermis datasets. An updated regression equation uses a combination of fitted permeability values obtained with a published 2D compartmental model previously evaluated. The resulting regression equation was: logKp = -2.55 + 0.65logP - 0.0085MW, R2 = 0.91 (applicability domain for all datasets: MW ranges from 18 to >584 g/mol and -4 to >5 for logP). This approach demonstrates the advantage of combining mechanistic with structural activity relationships in a single modeling approach. This combination approach results in an improved regression fit when compared to permeability estimates obtained using the Potts-Guy approach alone. The analysis presented in this work assumes a one-compartment skin absorption route; future modeling work will consider adding multiple compartments.

Towards best use and regulatory acceptance of generic physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models for in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) in chemical risk assessment.

With an increasing need to incorporate new approach methodologies (NAMs) in chemical risk assessment and the concomitant need to phase out animal testing, the interpretation of in vitro assay readouts for quantitative hazard characterisation becomes more important. Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models, which simulate the fate of chemicals in tissues of the body, play an essential role in extrapolating in vitro effect concentrations to in vivo bioequivalent exposures. As PBK-based testing approaches evolve, it will become essential to standardise PBK modelling approaches towards a consensus approach that can be used in quantitative in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE) studies for regulatory chemical risk assessment based on in vitro assays. Based on results of an ECETOC expert workshop, steps are recommended that can improve regulatory adoption: (1) define context and implementation, taking into consideration model complexity for building fit-for-purpose PBK models, (2) harmonise physiological input parameters and their distribution and define criteria for quality chemical-specific parameters, especially in the absence of in vivo data, (3) apply Good Modelling Practices (GMP) to achieve transparency and design a stepwise approach for PBK model development for risk assessors, (4) evaluate model predictions using alternatives to in vivo PK data including read-across approaches, (5) use case studies to facilitate discussions between modellers and regulators of chemical risk assessment. Proof-of-concepts of generic PBK modelling approaches are published in the scientific literature at an increasing rate. Working on the previously proposed steps is, therefore, needed to gain confidence in PBK modelling approaches for regulatory use.

Designing QSARs for Parameters of High-Throughput Toxicokinetic Models Using Open-Source Descriptors.

The intrinsic metabolic clearance rate (Clint) and the fraction of the chemical unbound in plasma (fup) serve as important parameters for high-throughput toxicokinetic (TK) models, but experimental data are limited for many chemicals. Open-source quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for both parameters were developed to offer reliable in silico predictions for a diverse set of chemicals regulated under the U.S. law, including pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and industrial chemicals. As a case study to demonstrate their utility, model predictions served as inputs to the TK component of a risk-based prioritization approach based on bioactivity/exposure ratios (BERs), in which a BER < 1 indicates that exposures are predicted to exceed a biological activity threshold. When applied to a subset of the Tox21 screening library (6484 chemicals), we found that the proportion of chemicals with BER <1 was similar using either in silico (1133/6484; 17.5%) or in vitro (148/848; 17.5%) parameters. Further, when considering only the chemicals in the Tox21 set with in vitro data, there was a high concordance of chemicals classified with either BER <1 or >1 using either in silico or in vitro parameters (767/848, 90.4%). Thus, the presented QSARs may be suitable for prioritizing the risk posed by many chemicals for which measured in vitro TK data are lacking.

Correction to Designing QSARs for Parameters of High Throughput Toxicokinetic Models Using Open-Source Descriptors.

The intrinsic metabolic clearance rate (Clint) and fraction of chemical unbound in plasma (fup) serve as important parameters for high throughput toxicokinetic models, but experimental data are limited for many chemicals. Open-source quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for both parameters were developed to offer reliable in silico predictions for a diverse set of chemicals regulated under U.S. law, including pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and industrial chemicals. As a case study to demonstrate their utility, model predictions served as inputs to the TK component of a risk-based prioritization approach based on Bioactivity: Exposure Ratios (BER), in which a BER < 1 indicates exposures are predicted to exceed a biological activity threshold. When applied to a subset of the Tox21 screening library (6631 chemicals) we found that the proportion of chemicals with BER < 1 was similar using either in silico (1337/6631; 20.16%) or in vitro (151/850; 17.76%) parameters. Further, when considering only the chemicals in the Tox21 set with in vitro data, there was a high concordance of chemicals classified with either BER < 1 or >1 using either in silico or in vitro parameters (776/850, 91.30%). Thus, the presented QSARs may be suitable for prioritizing the risk posed by many chemicals for which measured in vitro TK data are lacking.

Chemical Characterization of Recycled Consumer Products Using Suspect Screening Analysis.

Recycled materials are found in many consumer products as part of a circular economy; however, the chemical content of recycled products is generally uncharacterized. A suspect screening analysis using two-dimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOFMS) was applied to 210 products (154 recycled, 56 virgin) across seven categories. Chemicals in products were tentatively identified using a standard spectral library or confirmed using chemical standards. A total of 918 probable chemical structures identified (112 of which were confirmed) in recycled materials versus 587 (110 confirmed) in virgin materials. Identified chemicals were characterized in terms of their functional use and structural class. Recycled paper products and construction materials contained greater numbers of chemicals than virgin products; 733 identified chemicals had greater occurrence in recycled compared to virgin materials. Products made from recycled materials contained greater numbers of fragrances, flame retardants, solvents, biocides, and dyes. The results were clustered to identify groups of chemicals potentially associated with unique chemical sources, and identified chemicals were prioritized for further study using high-throughput hazard and exposure information. While occurrence is not necessarily indicative of risk, these results can be used to inform the expansion of existing models or identify exposure pathways currently neglected in exposure assessments.

Predicting compound amenability with liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry to improve non-targeted analysis.

With the increasing availability of high-resolution mass spectrometers, suspect screening and non-targeted analysis are becoming popular compound identification tools for environmental researchers. Samples of interest often contain a large (unknown) number of chemicals spanning the detectable mass range of the instrument. In an effort to separate these chemicals prior to injection into the mass spectrometer, a chromatography method is often utilized. There are numerous types of gas and liquid chromatographs that can be coupled to commercially available mass spectrometers. Depending on the type of instrument used for analysis, the researcher is likely to observe a different subset of compounds based on the amenability of those chemicals to the selected experimental techniques and equipment. It would be advantageous if this subset of chemicals could be predicted prior to conducting the experiment, in order to minimize potential false-positive and false-negative identifications. In this work, we utilize experimental datasets to predict the amenability of chemical compounds to detection with liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS). The assembled dataset totals 5517 unique chemicals either explicitly detected or not detected with LC-ESI-MS. The resulting detected/not-detected matrix has been modeled using specific molecular descriptors to predict which chemicals are amenable to LC-ESI-MS, and to which form(s) of ionization. Random forest models, including a measure of the applicability domain of the model for both positive and negative modes of the electrospray ionization source, were successfully developed. The outcome of this work will help to inform future suspect screening and non-targeted analyses of chemicals by better defining the potential LC-ESI-MS detectable chemical landscape of interest.

Incorporating human exposure information in a weight of evidence approach to inform design of repeated dose animal studies.

Human health risks from chronic exposures to environmental chemicals are typically estimated from potential human exposure estimates and dose-response data obtained from repeated-dose animal toxicity studies. Various criteria are available for selecting the top (highest) dose used in these animal studies. For example, toxicokinetic (TK) and toxicological data provided by shorter-term or dose range finding studies can be evaluated in a weight of evidence approach to provide insight into the dose range that would provide dose-response data that are relevant to human exposures. However, there are concerns that a top dose resulting from the consideration of TK data may be too low compared to other criteria, such as the limit dose or the maximum tolerated dose. In this paper, we address several concerns related to human exposures by discussing 1) the resources and methods available to predict human exposure levels and the associated uncertainty and variability, and 2) the margin between predicted human exposure levels and the dose levels used in repeated-dose animal studies. A series of case studies, ranging from data-rich to data-poor chemicals, are presented to demonstrate that expected human exposures to environmental chemicals are typically orders of magnitude lower than no-observed-adverse-effect levels/lowest-observed-adverse-effect levels (NOAELs/LOAELs) when available (used as conservative surrogates for top doses). The results of these case studies support that a top dose based, in part, on TK data is typically orders of magnitude higher than expected human exposure levels.

Opportunities and challenges related to saturation of toxicokinetic processes: Implications for risk assessment.

Top dose selection for repeated dose animal studies has generally focused on identification of apical endpoints, use of the limit dose, or determination of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). The intent is to optimize the ability of toxicity tests performed in a small number of animals to detect effects for hazard identification. An alternative approach, the kinetically derived maximum dose (KMD), has been proposed as a mechanism to integrate toxicokinetic (TK) data into the dose selection process. The approach refers to the dose above which the systemic exposures depart from being proportional to external doses. This non-linear external-internal dose relationship arises from saturation or limitation of TK process(es), such as absorption or metabolism. The importance of TK information is widely acknowledged when assessing human health risks arising from exposures to environmental chemicals, as TK determines the amount of chemical at potential sites of toxicological responses. However, there have been differing opinions and interpretations within the scientific and regulatory communities related to the validity and application of the KMD concept. A multi-stakeholder working group, led by the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI), was formed to provide an opportunity for impacted stakeholders to address commonly raised scientific and technical issues related to this topic and, more specifically, a weight of evidence approach is recommended to inform design and dose selection for repeated dose animal studies. Commonly raised challenges related to the use of TK data for dose selection are discussed, recommendations are provided, and illustrative case examples are provided to address these challenges or refute misconceptions.

PBPK model reporting template for chemical risk assessment applications.

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling analysis does not stand on its own for regulatory purposes but is a robust tool to support drug/chemical safety assessment. While the development of PBPK models have grown steadily since their emergence, only a handful of models have been accepted to support regulatory purposes due to obstacles such as the lack of a standardized template for reporting PBPK analysis. Here, we expand the existing guidances designed for pharmaceutical applications by recommending additional elements that are relevant to environmental chemicals. This harmonized reporting template can be adopted and customized by public health agencies receiving PBPK model submission, and it can also serve as general guidance for submitting PBPK-related studies for publication in journals or other modeling sharing purposes. The current effort represents one of several ongoing collaborations among the PBPK modeling and risk assessment communities to promote, when appropriate, incorporating PBPK modeling to characterize the influence of pharmacokinetics on safety decisions made by regulatory agencies.

Consensus Modeling of Median Chemical Intake for the U.S. Population Based on Predictions of Exposure Pathways.

Prioritizing the potential risk posed to human health by chemicals requires tools that can estimate exposure from limited information. In this study, chemical structure and physicochemical properties were used to predict the probability that a chemical might be associated with any of four exposure pathways leading from sources-consumer (near-field), dietary, far-field industrial, and far-field pesticide-to the general population. The balanced accuracies of these source-based exposure pathway models range from 73 to 81%, with the error rate for identifying positive chemicals ranging from 17 to 36%. We then used exposure pathways to organize predictions from 13 different exposure models as well as other predictors of human intake rates. We created a consensus, meta-model using the Systematic Empirical Evaluation of Models framework in which the predictors of exposure were combined by pathway and weighted according to predictive ability for chemical intake rates inferred from human biomonitoring data for 114 chemicals. The consensus model yields an R2 of ∼0.8. We extrapolate to predict relevant pathway(s), median intake rate, and credible interval for 479 926 chemicals, mostly with minimal exposure information. This approach identifies 1880 chemicals for which the median population intake rates may exceed 0.1 mg/kg bodyweight/day, while there is 95% confidence that the median intake rate is below 1 µg/kg BW/day for 474572 compounds.

Challenges in working towards an internal threshold of toxicological concern (iTTC) for use in the safety assessment of cosmetics: Discussions from the Cosmetics Europe iTTC Working Group workshop.

The Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) is an important risk assessment tool which establishes acceptable low-level exposure values to be applied to chemicals with limited toxicological data. One of the logical next steps in the continued evolution of TTC is to develop this concept further so that it is representative of internal exposures (TTC based on plasma concentration). An internal TTC (iTTC) would provide threshold values that could be utilized in exposure-based safety assessments. As part of a Cosmetics Europe (CosEu) research program, CosEu has initiated a project that is working towards the development of iTTCs that can be used for the human safety assessment. Knowing that the development of an iTTC is an ambitious and broad-spanning topic, CosEu organized a Working Group comprised a balance of multiple stakeholders (cosmetics and chemical industries, the EPA and JRC and academia) with relevant experience and expertise and workshop to critically evaluate the requirements to establish an iTTC. Outcomes from the workshop included an evaluation on the current state of the science for iTTC, the overall iTTC strategy, selection of chemical databases, capture and curation of chemical information, ADME and repeat dose data, expected challenges, as well as next steps and ongoing work.

Defining toxicological tipping points in neuronal network development.

Measuring electrical activity of neural networks by microelectrode array (MEA) has recently shown promise for screening level assessments of chemical toxicity on network development and function. Important aspects of interneuronal communication can be quantified from a single MEA recording, including individual firing rates, coordinated bursting, and measures of network synchrony, providing rich datasets to evaluate chemical effects. Further, multiple recordings can be made from the same network, including during the formation of these networks in vitro. The ability to perform multiple recording sessions over the in vitro development of network activity may provide further insight into developmental effects of neurotoxicants. In the current study, a recently described MEA-based screen of 86 compounds in primary rat cortical cultures over 12 days in vitro was revisited to establish a framework that integrates all available primary measures of electrical activity from MEA recordings into a composite metric for deviation from normal activity (total scalar perturbation). Examining scalar perturbations over time and increasing concentration of compound allowed for definition of critical concentrations or "tipping points" at which the neural networks switched from recovery to non-recovery trajectories for 42 compounds. These tipping point concentrations occurred at predominantly lower concentrations than those causing overt cell viability loss or disrupting individual network parameters, suggesting tipping points may be a more sensitive measure of network functional loss. Comparing tipping points for six compounds with plasma concentrations known to cause developmental neurotoxicity in vivo demonstrated strong concordance and suggests there is potential for using tipping points for chemical prioritization.

Suspect Screening Analysis of Chemicals in Consumer Products.

A two-dimensional gas chromatography-time-of-flight/mass spectrometry (GC×GC-TOF/MS) suspect screening analysis method was used to rapidly characterize chemicals in 100 consumer products-which included formulations (e.g., shampoos, paints), articles (e.g., upholsteries, shower curtains), and foods (cereals)-and therefore supports broader efforts to prioritize chemicals based on potential human health risks. Analyses yielded 4270 unique chemical signatures across the products, with 1602 signatures tentatively identified using the National Institute of Standards and Technology 2008 spectral database. Chemical standards confirmed the presence of 119 compounds. Of the 1602 tentatively identified chemicals, 1404 were not present in a public database of known consumer product chemicals. Reported data and model predictions of chemical functional use were applied to evaluate the tentative chemical identifications. Estimated chemical concentrations were compared to manufacturer-reported values and other measured data. Chemical presence and concentration data can now be used to improve estimates of chemical exposure, and refine estimates of risk posed to human health and the environment.

An Intuitive Approach for Predicting Potential Human Health Risk with the Tox21 10k Library.

In vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) analyses translating high-throughput screening (HTS) data to human relevance have been limited. This study represents the first report applying IVIVE approaches and exposure comparisons using the entirety of the Tox21 federal collaboration chemical screening data, incorporating assay response efficacy and quality of concentration-response fits, and providing quantitative anchoring to first address the likelihood of human in vivo interactions with Tox21 compounds. This likelihood was assessed using a maximum blood concentration to in vitro response ratio approach (Cmax/AC50), analogous to decision-making methods for clinical drug-drug interactions. Fraction unbound in plasma (fup) and intrinsic hepatic clearance (CLint) parameters were estimated in silico and incorporated in a three-compartment toxicokinetic (TK) model to first predict Cmax for in vivo corroboration using therapeutic scenarios. Toward lower exposure scenarios, 36 compounds of 3925 unique chemicals with curated activity in the HTS data using high-quality dose-response model fits and ≥40% efficacy gave "possible" human in vivo interaction likelihoods lower than median human exposures predicted in the United States Environmental Protection Agency's ExpoCast program. A publicly available web application has been designed to provide all Tox21-ToxCast dose-likelihood predictions. Overall, this approach provides an intuitive framework to relate in vitro toxicology data rapidly and quantitatively to exposures using either in vitro or in silico derived TK parameters and can be thought of as an important step toward estimating plausible biological interactions in a high-throughput risk-assessment framework.

Evaluation and calibration of high-throughput predictions of chemical distribution to tissues.

Toxicokinetics (TK) provides critical information for integrating chemical toxicity and exposure assessments in order to determine potential chemical risk (i.e., the margin between toxic doses and plausible exposures). For thousands of chemicals that are present in our environment, in vivo TK data are lacking. The publicly available R package "httk" (version 1.8, named for "high throughput TK") draws from a database of in vitro data and physico-chemical properties in order to run physiologically-based TK (PBTK) models for 553 compounds. The PBTK model parameters include tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kp) which the httk software predicts using the model of Schmitt (Toxicol In Vitro 22 (2):457-467, 2008). In this paper we evaluated and modified httk predictions, and quantified confidence using in vivo literature data. We used 964 rat Kp measured by in vivo experiments for 143 compounds. Initially, predicted Kp were significantly larger than measured Kp for many lipophilic compounds (log10 octanol:water partition coefficient > 3). Hence the approach for predicting Kp was revised to account for possible deficiencies in the in vitro protein binding assay, and the method for predicting membrane affinity was revised. These changes yielded improvements ranging from a factor of 10 to nearly a factor of 10,000 for 83 Kp across 23 compounds with only 3 Kp worsening by more than a factor of 10. The vast majority (92%) of Kp were predicted within a factor of 10 of the measured value (overall root mean squared error of 0.59 on log10-transformed scale). After applying the adjustments, regressions were performed to calibrate and evaluate the predictions for 12 tissues. Predictions for some tissues (e.g., spleen, bone, gut, lung) were observed to be better than predictions for other tissues (e.g., skin, brain, fat), indicating that confidence in the application of in silico tools to predict chemical partitioning varies depending upon the tissues involved. Our calibrated model was then evaluated using a second data set of human in vivo measurements of volume of distribution (Vss) for 498 compounds reviewed by Obach et al. (Drug Metab Dispos 36(7):1385-1405, 2008). We found that calibration of the model improved performance: a regression of the measured values as a function of the predictions has a slope of 1.03, intercept of - 0.04, and R2 of 0.43. Through careful evaluation of predictive methods for chemical partitioning into tissues, we have improved and calibrated these methods and quantified confidence for TK predictions in humans and rats.