Visual and genetic stock identification of a test fishery to forecast Columbia River spring Chinook salmon stocks 2 weeks into the future.

Modern fisheries management strives to balance opposing goals of protection for weak stocks and opportunity for harvesting healthy stocks. Test fisheries can aid management of anadromous fishes if they can forecast the strength and timing of an annual run with adequate time to allow fisheries planning. Integration of genetic stock identification (GSI) can further maximize utility of test fisheries by resolving run forecasts into weak- and healthy-stock subcomponents. Using 5 years (2017-2022) of test fishery data, our study evaluated accuracy, resolution, and lead time of predictions for stock-specific run timing and abundance of Columbia River spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We determined if this test fishery (1) could use visual stock identification (VSI) to forecast at the coarse stock resolution (i.e., classification of "lower" vs. "upriver" stocks) upon which current management is based and (2) could be enhanced with GSI to forecast at higher stock resolution. VSI accurately identified coarse stocks (83.3% GSI concordance), and estimated a proxy for abundance (catch per unit effort, CPUE) of the upriver stock in the test fishery that was correlated (R 2 = 0.90) with spring Chinook salmon abundance at Bonneville dam (Rkm 235). Salmon travel rates (~8.6 Rkm/day) provided predictions with 2-week lead time prior to dam passage. Importantly, GSI resolved this predictive ability as finely as the hatchery broodstock level. Lower river stock CPUE in the test fishery was correlated with abundance at Willamette Falls (Rkm 196, R 2 = 0.62), but could not be as finely resolved as achieved for upriver stocks. We described steps to combine VSI and GSI to provide timely in-season information and with prediction accuracy of ~12.4 mean absolute percentage error and high stock resolution to help plan Columbia River mainstem fisheries.

Genomic region associated with run timing has similar haplotypes and phenotypic effects across three lineages of Chinook salmon.

Conserving life-history variation is a stated goal of many management programs, but the most effective means by which to accomplish this are often far from clear. Early- and late-migrating forms of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) face unequal pressure from natural and anthropogenic forces that may alter the impacts of genetic variation underlying heritable migration timing. Genomic regions of chromosome 28 are known to be strongly associated with migration variation in adult Chinook salmon, but it remains unclear whether there is consistent association among diverse lineages and populations in large basins such as the Columbia River. With high-throughput genotyping (GT-seq) and phenotyping methods, we examined the association of genetic variation in 28 markers (spanning GREB1L to ROCK1 of chromosome 28) with individual adult migration timing characteristics gleaned from passive integrated transponder recordings of over 5000 Chinook salmon from the three major phylogeographic lineages that inhabit the Columbia River Basin. Despite the strong genetic differences among them in putatively neutral genomic regions, each of the three lineages exhibited very similar genetic variants in the chromosome 28 region that were significantly associated with adult migration timing phenotypes. This is particularly notable for the interior stream-type lineage, which exhibits an earlier and more constrained freshwater entry than the other lineages. In both interior stream-type and interior ocean-type lineages of Chinook salmon, heterozygotes of the most strongly associated linkage groups had largely intermediate migration timing relative to homozygotes, and results indicate codominance or possibly marginal partial dominance of the allele associated with early migration. Our results lend support to utilization of chromosome 28 variation in tracking and predicting run timing in these lineages of Chinook salmon in the Columbia River.

Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) lineages and sexes show variable patterns of association of adult migration timing and age-at-maturity traits with two genomic regions.

As life history diversity plays a critical role in supporting the resilience of exploited populations, understanding the genetic basis of those life history variations is important for conservation management. However, effective application requires a robust understanding of the strength and universality of genetic associations. Here, we examine genetic variation of single nucleotide polymorphisms in genomic regions previously associated with migration phenology and age-at-maturity in steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from the Columbia River. We found chromosome 28 markers (GREB1L, ROCK1 genes) explained significant variance in migration timing in both coastal and inland steelhead. However, strength of association was much greater in coastal than inland steelhead (R 2 0.51 vs. 0.08), suggesting that genomic background and challenging inland migration pathways may act to moderate effects of this region. Further, we found that chromosome 25 candidate markers (SIX6 gene) were significantly associated with age and size at first return migration for inland steelhead, and this pattern was mediated by sex in a predictable pattern (males R 2 = 0.139-0.170; females R 2 = 0.096-0.111). While this encourages using these candidate regions in predicting life history characteristics, we suggest that stock-specific associations and haplotype frequencies will be useful in guiding implementation of genetic assays to inform management.